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April 17, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 3 Of 3

Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V)

Visible Gold Mines was off 3 pennies for the week but fashioned a bullish reversal Friday, dropping as low as 36 cents but closing at its high of the day at 38.5 cents…volume has picked up significantly over the last six trading sessions…the 50-day moving average (SMA) has started to reverse to the upside and the stock has clearly demonstrated it has powerful support in the mid-30’s…it appears now that resistance in the low 40’s will once again be put to the test…VGD is currently drilling two properties (Sildor and Cadillac Break) west of Rouyn-Noranda while the company is also gearing up for exploration programs at Stadacona-East and its newly-acquired Joutel Project that was recently optioned from Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX)…Joutel, a significant former producer that gave birth to Agnico-Eagle, has the potential to become a huge winner for VGD…this is a company that’s rapidly developing as one of the most aggressive Gold explorers in northwestern Quebec…the President and CEO of Visible Gold Mines is Martin Dallaire, a very successful entrepreneur in Rouyn-Noranda with an engineering degree who understands the mining industry and what an exploration company needs to do to succeed and build shareholder value…Dallaire is fluently bilingual, presents himself extremely well and knows how to run a business and make money…he thinks big but is focused…he has also recruited some key people including Robert Sansfacon, one of the most respected geologists in the country who honed his skills for many years with Lac Minerals…Sansfacon played a critical role in the discovery of Osisko’s (OSK, TSX) Canadian Malartic deposit…in short, Dallaire has put something together you don’t often see in the junior speculative market – a powerful dynamic of business, geological and marketing expertise with a strategic plan to rapidly build value…the company’s niche and sole geological focus is northwestern Quebec where it has acquired several promising land packages, mostly west and north of Rouyn-Noranda…Dallaire is taking an aggressive approach to exploration and is currently armed with $8 million in working capital (17.5 cents per share)…he’s targeting under-explored areas and past producing mines where major new extensions are possible…two drill programs are in progress, as mentioned above, and initial assays are expected in the near future from the Silidor Property where a high-grade Gold discovery was made last summer in field exploration, 950 metres from the former Silidor Mine…21 holes (nearly 5,000 metres of drilling) have been completed so far at Silidor…On March 31 the company announced the Joutel deal with Agnico-Eagle…VGD has acquired an option to earn a 50% interest in Joutel which is 150 kilometres north of Rouyn-Noranda…Joutel’s Eagle and Telbel mines produced over 1 million ounces of Gold at a grade of 6 g/t Au and some Silver between 1973 and 1993 (Agnico Mines merged with Eagle Mines Ltd. in 1972, allowing for the development of Eagle Mines’ Joutel mining complex)…Agnico-Eagle closed the mine prematurely in the early 90′s in order to concentrate its efforts on the massive LaRonde Mine…the fact it would cut a deal with VGD on Joutel speaks volumes about their confidence in this junior…if anyone can unlock the value of Joutel, it would be Sansfacon…VGD’s exploration there could turn into a very exciting story…

GoldQuest Mining (GQX, TSX-V)

It was another quiet week for GoldQuest which closed at 32.5 cents, a gain of half a penny from the previous Friday…the stock is off 33% from its early February high of 48.5 cents but we’re not concerned about GoldQuest as the underlying fundamentals remain strong…interestingly, the stock has given up half the gains it enjoyed from the beginning of September to the February 7 high…that’s a very normal pullback after a nearly five-fold increase in the stock price over just five months, so one has to keep things in perspective…the prospects for GQC this year are very bright given the company’s pipeline of quality Gold projects in the Dominican Republic where a mining boom is clearly in full swing…GoldQuest has been conducting a Phase 2 drill program at its promising La Escandalosa Property in the DR since mid-December and initial results are expected very soon…based on the success of the last drill program, GoldQuest is getting closer to the centre of the mineralizing system at Escandalosa and we’re expecting results that could ultimately elevate this project to the 1 million+ ounce category…400,000 inferred ounces have already been outlined (NI-43-101) based on just 25 drill holes (it’s important to note the 43-101 was done at an early stage)…approximately 40 holes are being drilled in the current program…Escandalosa is a flat-lying, near-surface deposit where the Gold should be easy to extract…as Chairman Bill Fisher told us in a February interview, “the economics could be really quite compelling”…proving up a 1 million ounce deposit at Escandalosa could give GoldQuest production of at least 100,000 ounces a year…GQC’s other promising priority projects in the DR are Las Animas and Jengibre which are next in line for drilling after Escandalosa…GoldQuest released a 43-101 resource estimate March 2 on its Toral zinc-lead-silver deposit in Spain…it showed slightly lower grades but much higher overall tonnage than the previous historical non-compliant estimate…as a result, total resources came out 15% higher…resources in the indicated category are 4.04 million tonnes grading 11.8% lead and zinc (5.3% lead, 6.5% zinc) as well as 41 g/t Ag and 0.11% Cu… inferred resources are 4.67 million tonnes grading 9.8% lead and zinc (4.44% lead, 5.4% zinc), 32 g/t Ag and 0.14 Cu…Toral has significant exploration and development upside as a majority of the historical drilling (40,000+ metres) was conducted over one relatively small part of the property…the zone of sulphide mineralization is open along strike to the northwest toward a known lead deposit as well as along strike to the southeast and downdip…the project is also an ideal candidate for a fast-track to production…the deposit is close to a power line, highway and rail line…a large smelter is located just 300 kilometers away by rail…GoldQuest is up 67% since we introduced it to BMR readers last fall at 19.5 cents…

Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V)

Greencastle was off half a penny last week at 23.5 cents…the stock has been trading above its 50-day moving average (SMA) in April for the first time since January…the 50-day has flattened out but the all-important reversal in that SMA has yet to kick in…VGN’s strong underlying fundamental value is clearly shown in the latest financials which were released March 24…as of December 31, Greencastle held $5.1 million in cash and $2.6 million in marketable securities…some of those securities are likely shares in Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) while the company disclosed it held 1,148,000 shares of Evrim Resources Corp. (EVM, TSX-V), formerly Avaranta, which started trading on the Venture Exchange January 25…at 24 cents, Greencastle’s market cap ($11 million) exceeds its working capital by just $3 million…the potential of higher oil prices in the coming months could bolster Greencastle’s monthly cash flow of approximately $130,000 as it receives royalties from heavy crude production at Primate in Saskatchewan…Greencastle tripled in value over a six-week period from late October to early December…since the beginning of January, though, the stock has struggled due mostly to impatient investors frustrated with the lack of news…patience is required here…over the years the successful strategy with Greencastle has been to accumulate on weakness when the stock is near cash value and then sell into strength when something develops…with $8 million in working capital, three Gold properties (including land near Richfield’s Blackwater Project) and monthly cash flow from an oil royalty, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Greencastle offers excellent value at current levels…the long-term chart remains very encouraging with rising 200 and 300-day SMA’s that are in no danger of reversing…it’s also interesting to note that President and CEO Tony Roodenburg, a large shareholder in VGN, has refrained from selling any of his holdings in recent months despite the fact the stock price more than tripled in value on high volume…this is different from past runs in the stock and adds further credence to our view that we haven’t seen the highs in this cycle yet from Greencastle – it’s poised for what we believe could be a massive breakout sometime this year…Pinetree Capital has also accumulated more shares in Greencastle, so there’s every reason to be very optimistic regarding this company’s prospects…investors need to be patient, however, as they often do with Roodenburg’s plays…Greencastle is up 68% since we added it back in to the BMR model portfolio six months ago…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V)

Adventure Gold settled back a bit last week, declining by a nickel to close at 63 cents, but the overall uptrend remains firmly intact…the rising 50-day moving average (SMA) at 61.5 cents continues to provide excellent support along with the 100-day SMA at 54 cents…this chart has some similarities to GBB’s chart last year…the company released good results from two more holes April 7 from its recently completed Phase 1 drill program at the Pascalis Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…hole #17 intersected four separate zones of mineralization at depths ranging from 6 metres to 187 metres (5.7 g/t Au over 4.3 metres, 4.6 g/t Au over 5.7 metres, 12.9 g/t Au over 8 metres, and 5 g/t Au over 6.1 metres)…hole #16 intersected 5.5 g/t Au over 5.9 metres…results from five more holes are pending…follow-up drilling will commence once all assays have been received and reviewed…a NI-43-101 resource calculation is planned for later this year…AGE’s latest financials, released April 1, show the company with $3 million in working capital at the end of January…AGE runs an efficient operation and knows where to direct its energies…the stock remains in an overall long-term uptrend with the supporting 50-day SMA at 60 cents and the 100-day (SMA) at 53 cents…we expect AGE will begin drilling its Granada Extension Property in the near future…results from Gold Bullion reveal exciting potential over the far western portion of GBB’s Preliminary Block Model which supports Adventure Gold’s geological interpretation that it holds part of the western extension of the LONG Bars Zone…we first mentioned Adventure Gold to our readers in an article September 29, just a couple of days following the company’s announcement that it had acquired land at Granada, when the stock was trading in the low 20′s…we officially added AGE to the BMR model portfolio at just 34 cents October 28…Adventure Gold has been around only since late 2007 and we are impressed by the company’s solid portfolio of properties (19 in six strategic areas in Quebec and Ontario)…also of immediate interest is AGE’s partnership with Lake Shore Gold (LSG, TSX) on the Meunier 144 Property where deep drilling is still testing the down plunge extension of Gold zones located at the Timmins and Thunder Creek deposits…the current initial deep drill hole onto the Meunier JV property is continuing and is on track to reach the 2,400 metre target level by the end of next month…if a discovery is made, AGE could explode…

Sidon International (SD, TSX-V)

Sidon continues to form a base around the 7-cent level after a sharp drop early last month following disappointing assay results from its Morogoro East Gold Property in Tanzania…volume has lightened up considerably and the stock closed Friday at 7.5 cents for a gain of half a penny for the week…on March 14 the company announced it has arranged a private placement of up to $2 million at 8 cents…Sidon also announced that day it has signed an option to acquire 80% of a property adjacent to Canaco’s (CAN, TSX-V) Handeni Project…initial drill results from Morogoro, announced March 8, fell short of market expectations…the six shallow holes that were drilled in December did not produce significant results, the best hole showing 3 metres grading 1.7 g/t Au…the company has drilled four deeper holes with results for those still pending…what the initial six holes have given Sidon, however, is a better understanding of the Morogoro geological structure which should help in future drilling…exploration, especially at such an early stage, is never easy and disappointing early results don’t necessarily mean a property doesn’t hold excellent potential…the company is also trying to develop a placer operation at Morogoro…acquiring ground near Canaco’s discovery also helps…there is certainly hope here for better days ahead…from a technical standpoint, previous support between 9 and 10 cents will now provide resistance…Sidon is up 50% since we introduced it to BMR readers a year ago at a nickel…the company currently has approximately 140 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $10.5 million…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V)

Seafield lost 3.5 cents last week to close Friday at 32 cents…a declining 50-day moving average (SMA), currently at 36 cents, and a rising 300-day SMA at 29 cents continue to define the trading range…the company announced April 5 that drilling has commenced at Santa Sofia, about one kilometre north of Dos Quebradas where drilling continues…Seafield geologists have identified a promising porphyry target measuring 1,050 metres in length and 850 metres in width at Santa Sofia with soil values up to 2.3 g/t Au…on March 7, assays were reported from the first three holes completed at Dos Quebradas with hole #2 intersecting a whopping 511 metres grading 0.58 g/t Au…the hole ended in mineralization…hole #1 delivered 269 metres grading 0.37 g/t Au while hole #3 was drilled to define the eastern limit of mineralization and returned no significant results…a total of 10 holes have now been completed at Dos Quebradas…significant intercepts well outside areas of historical drilling would start to get the market excited…the geological case for Seafield’s Quinchia land package is compelling and we’re looking forward to more results from Dos Quebradas as well as initial assays from Santa Sofia…the company has already outlined a NI-43-101 inferred resource of nearly 800,000 ounces at its Miraflores Property, a number that’s expected to increase following the 12-hole, 4,000 metre program completed late last year…patient investors have an opportunity to do extremely well with this play given the geological merits of Quinchia and the real potential for 5 million+ ounces from several potential deposits…the company is sitting on at least $15 million in cash and has a very modest market cap of $49 million…Seafield has gained 433% since we made it the first company in the BMR model portfolio in the summer of 2009…it’s encouraging to see that Anglo-Ashanti Ltd., the world’s third largest Gold producer, plans to spend $300 million over the next three years on further exploration in Colombia…

2 Comments

  1. You copy past the same thing about Seafield and lets face it this stock is a pure dog. Good luck to anyone holding this one.

    Comment by Mike — April 19, 2011 @ 8:40 am

  2. Mike, a lot of people were saying the same thing when Seafield when it was trading below 20 cents last year. Today it may seem like a dog to some investors (or traders), but that’s when the big money is usually made….for those who have a longer term perspective this one could bust out in a huge way as drill results start to come in from Dos Quebradas, Santa Sofia and elsewhere……only 3 holes from there have been reported so far, and you call this a dog? I’d like to hear what you have to say in 6 months or so….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 19, 2011 @ 9:09 am

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