There is much to be encouraged about when examining the current state of the Venture, especially if you’re a contrarian (you have to possess some contrarian instincts to win big in this business).
Last summer, the Venture ran out of steam by early-mid August after a 7+ month run that sent the Index up a whopping 82%.
This summer, the Venture is ideally positioned to be gaining momentum by the middle of August given the bull market chart pattern that goes back to the beginning of 2016.
Furthermore, there are some striking similarities between the current bull cycle and the one during 2010–2011. Of particular note, investors forget how sentiment at this time in 2010 was almost identical to the current period. By late July 2010, after spending a few weeks below its rising 300-day moving average (SMA), the Venture snapped out of a “Wave 4” consolidation and suddenly took off to the upside in a powerful move that greatly accelerated by late August and continued, almost unabated, until early March 2011 as the U.S. dollar plunged.
Today, the Venture is also in a “Wave 4” pattern and has fallen slightly below its 300-day SMA for the first time during this bull market, just like the Index did in the early summer of 2010.
The greenback is also in trouble now, from a technical standpoint, as it was during the summer of 2010. President Trump, it should be noted, has no strategic advantage in coming to the aid of a struggling dollar. In fact, he has been encouraging its fall.
To use a hockey analogy, the top stars succeed in part because they possess tremendous peripheral vision and can anticipate, more effectively than other players, how plays are about to develop and where the puck is going.
Applying “peripheral vision” to the markets, discernment and the skills of anticipation will make you a better investor, one who leads rather than follows or reacts. Tonight’s 2 charts will help you with that.
In the coming days we’ll examine some fundamental factors that could drive the Venture much higher, including the top major discovery opportunities in British Columbia.
2016-2017 Venture Bull Market
This chart is one of the most important ones John has produced since the Venture bull market began early last year.
Key takeaways:
- Note the uptrend line from the spring of last year – the Venture is bouncing along that uptrend support!
- For the first time during this cycle the Venture has fallen below its 300-day SMA – that’s a good sign as major near-term reversals to the upside have always occurred during a Venture bull market following a dip below the 300-day
- RSI(2) is at extreme oversold levels on this weekly chart
- %K (SS indicator) is at or near previous support
- This is no time to be discouraged or bearish – all the ingredients are in place for a big upside event!
The conclusion is simple: The Venture is in the “last gasp” of its consolidation that started in August of last year. Now is the ideal time to be accumulating in anticipation of a major move to the upside starting this quarter. One can’t rule out the possibility of a “false breakdown” below the uptrend support and further beneath the 300-day, but history shows such a move would be brief and likely followed by a powerful wave higher given the rising 300-day and current oversold conditions.
2010-2011 Venture Bull Market
Note how the “Wave 4” pattern in 2010, just like now, took the Venture slightly below its rising 300-day SMA. While that occurred, RSI(2) and the ADX indicator were both positioned very similar to where they are now.
Key resistance for the Venture in 2010 was around 1,690, just like 860 is key resistance now. The 2010 resistance took time to overcome – nearly 9 months, just like the current resistance is taking time to conquer.
Be patient and have confidence that much better days are about to unfold for the Venture.
JON: it looks like CPO is ready to breakout again? Great volume yesterday and looks much stronger than we have seen it in days!
Comment by STEVEN1 — July 5, 2017 @ 5:30 am
A reminder that GGM at 6.5 cents is at support and the best undeveloped value on the Cadillac Trend…
Technical Report filed—news out. Basa: “We look forward to soon elaborating on our immediate plans with the fully permitted deposit and the exciting high-grade exploration opportunity that changes the dynamics for this property.”
Mr. Frank Basa reports
GRANADA GOLD SEDAR FILES NI-43-101 TECHNICAL REPORT FOR UPDATED GRANADA RESOURCE ESTIMATE
Granada Gold Mine Inc. has filed on SEDAR the independent National Instrument 43-101 technical report regarding the updated mineral resource estimate and revised block model for its 100-per-cent-owned Granada gold property in northwest Quebec as described in the company’s news release dated May 16, 2017.
The Report dated June 30, 2017, with effective date of May 16, 2017, includes the first material estimate of high-grade gold resources discovered in zones at depth immediately north of the LONG Bars Zone open-pit deposit.
An initial Inferred underground resource of 10,386,500 tonnes grading 4.56 g/t Au at a cut-off grade of 1.5 g/t (1.5 million oz. Au) has been outlined along 600 meters of strike, north of the original near-surface discovery at Granada.
Frank J. Basa, Granada Gold President and CEO, commented: “Significantly, only a fraction of the total area (1.8 km north-south x 2.1 km east-west) north of the LONG Bars Zone Measured and Indicated near-surface pit-constrained resource has been drill-tested, further solidifying Granada as one of the premier exploration and development opportunities along the prolific Cadillac Trend.
“We look forward to soon elaborating on our immediate plans with the fully permitted deposit and the exciting high-grade exploration opportunity that changes the dynamics for this property,” Basa concluded.
The updated LONG Bars Zone open-pit constrained resource estimate features 625,000 ounces in the Measured category (17,068,500 tonnes grading 1.14 g/t Au) and 182,700 ounces Inferred (4,507,000 tonnes grading 1.26 g/t Au) using a gold cut-off grade of 0.39 g/t, providing total Measured and Indicated resources of 807,700 ounces (21,575,500 tonnes @ 1.16 g/t Au using a 0.39 g/t cut-off).
Granada cautions that mineral resources are not mineral reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability.
Resources at Granada were calculated using the inverse square method. Please refer to the Technical Report and the May 16 news release for further details on the updated resource and the revised Granada Block Model, showing robust potential for the Granada Property.
Qualified Person
Claude Duplessis, P. Eng., of Goldminds Geoservices Inc., a geological, environmental and mining consultant, is an independent qualified person in accordance with National Instrument 43-101, and has reviewed and approved the contents of this news release.
About Granada Gold Mine Inc.
Granada Gold Mine Inc. (formerly Gold Bullion Development Corp.) is developing the Granada Gold Property near Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec. The property includes the former Granada gold mine which produced more than 50,000 ounces of gold in the 1930’s before a fire destroyed the surface buildings. The highly prolific Cadillac Trend cuts through the north part of the property. The Cadillac Trend has been the source of more than 50 million ounces of gold produced in the past century on a line running from Val-d’Or to Rouyn-Noranda.
The Company has obtained all necessary permits for the initial mining phase known as the “Rolling Start” for which stripping has already begun, and has been conducting exploration drilling in order to expand the reported mineral resource for the property. Additional information is available at http://www.granadagoldmine.com.
We seek Safe Harbor.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 5, 2017 @ 5:40 am
We have an updated chart on CPO in today’s Morning Musings, Steven. We’re approaching a point when some very positive exploration results should drive the likes of FCC, CPO and of course CSR which is certainly due for news.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 5, 2017 @ 5:44 am
GGM. mkt didn’t even yawn w the NR.
Comment by david — July 5, 2017 @ 7:00 am
Just a repeat of previously disclosed (May 16) information, David, other than Basa’s comments, so it wasn’t “news” per se…but companies are required to news release SEDAR filings such as this. Nonetheless, serves as a reminder of a large resource with interesting new high-grade potential at depth going north. If you subscribe to the theory that Gold and the Venture are going to make a bullish move within a few weeks, then GGM at support between 6.5 and 7 cents is a very attractive trade. Some majors have to be looking at this property.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 5, 2017 @ 9:11 am
GGM. ahhh ya. my Duh. it did perk up and
trade on the May 16 news and upticked a bit.
Comment by david — July 5, 2017 @ 9:48 am
Jon – isnt it an “updated” NI-43-101 report?
Comment by Marc — July 5, 2017 @ 10:25 am
Jon- perhaps this is an unfair question, with a lot of variables, but do
you have in mind a value per oz. in the ground for the 5M oz, that Frank
would reasonably expect to get in a take-out scenario?
Comment by bob — July 5, 2017 @ 10:52 am
Well, certainly a lot more than what the valuation is now, Bob…the key unknown and potential big driver is the high-grade to the north…that’s what will get majors really jacked up…so little of that ground to the north has been tested, yet already there’s 1.5 million ounces Inferred along 600 m of strike…the juiciest mineralization has probably not been hit yet…take-out scenarios really go up in price per ounce when you start getting into high-grade…look how Probe turned the corner after it discovered high-grade next to a 1 g/t tonne near-surface open-pit deposit…
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 5, 2017 @ 11:57 am
Yes, it’s an updated NI-43-101 resource estimate, Marc, but this is the report referred to in the May 16 NR. Companies have 45 days to SEDAR file the report.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 5, 2017 @ 3:13 pm