Daniel T. Cook
11:00 am Pacific
Words from the wild.
This is what people are saying. This is what I’m hearing. This is what’s being reported.
According to pollsters and “the polls”, this race is neck and neck. Arguably, from a gamesmanship strategy, the polls are needed and used to shape public opinion (perception). If voters/Americans can be trained to believe it’s close, they’ll be less shocked when Trump, the obvious favorite, loses.
In my view that’s the only usefulness for polls (polls overestimated Democrats by an average of 3–4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections, no reason it won’t happen again tonight).
Early voting (results) have been BULLISH for Trump.
Tons of trading in DJT – very volatile – which has been a smart buy recently in the low $30’s / high $20’s. Looks like a perfect call by Jon Friday.
Sell in upper $30’s now and lock in profits – or roll the dice and play for potentially much bigger gains tomorrow?
Republican voters tend to show up in largest numbers and start playing catchup on ELECTION DAY.
Democrats tend to go way ahead and win during early voting.
Therefore, importantly, this is a huge forward-looking indicator – Democrats lost the early vote!
Compared to 2020, in battleground states (like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada), approximately 1.4 million people who voted Democrat before Election Day haven’t voted. Voter turnout from women is way down. Democrat numbers are also down in cities, urban areas.
If Democrats always win the early vote by a large margin, but lost in 2024, it presents a number of questions. A couple obvious ones being 1) Why didn’t they vote this time?, and 2) What would motivate them to change their behavior by voting on Election Day and spending hours waiting in line?
Losing the early vote is a huge deal and a bullish forward-looking indicator for Trump.
Big numbers and big lines on Election Day historically favor Republican candidates.
Consider how slim Biden’s margin of “victory” was:
- 11,779 votes in Georgia
- 10,457 votes in Arizona
- 80,555 votes in Pennsylvania
- 33,596 votes in Nevada
- 20,682 votes in Wisconsin
Also consider, keep in mind, despite the slim victories, Biden received an all-time record 81,283,501 votes! (hmm, just didn’t make sense).
Given what we already know (early turnout for Dems is down by a couple million or even more), what are the odds Harris sets another new record? To win she will need to because Trump’s numbers are almost certainly going to be very strong (74,223,975 votes last time).
What are the odds of Kamala setting a new Presidential record?
Where is the wave of enthusiasm for her?
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” – George Orwell, 1984
While there’s still lots of support for Democratic candidates and the Democratic Party, their supporters are waning. You hear it’s still there and growing. You’re told it is. But you don’t really see it, so it’s hard to believe. Many Democrat supporters and non-voters are also saying they’re done – not for Kamala, or they’re backing Trump.
Another thing, it’s quite clear that Trump is winning more and more votes from Blacks and Hispanics. Communities which are commonly in favor of family values and religion. These communities are being negatively impacted by illegal immigration. And they’re not really excited about men destroying women’s sports.
Kamala and the Dems spread fear and lies about women’s access to healthcare. However, would many women not be more motivated to vote against LGBTQiA+ initiatives than for abortion?
Another bullish indicator for Trump – young men 18 to 24 haven’t exactly raced to voting places in previous elections, but they’re showing up now. They are voting in record numbers. On average men are much more supportive of Trump’s policies than Kamala’s – he wins the gender gap.
So a number of early indicators are looking super positive for Trump.
Of course, state-by-state election the election process varies. Suffice to say, some are safer and better managed than others. You’ll hear about and we are hearing about computer “glitches” flipping Trump votes to Kamala even after several attempts at correction (any flipping always seems to flip that direction). You’ll also hear about thousands of “last minute” voter registration dumps (some evidence of this), which look to be problematic (fraudulent). You’ll also hear about and we’re seeing multi-hour long lines and voters being turned away.
We’re also being told official results from battleground states like Pennsylvania will take weeks (whoever wins Pennsylvania takes the White House – 90% odds).
None of these issues seem to occur in states like Florida!
Political betting markets for individual states, like Nevada, have also been fluctuating wildly. As of right now, Nevada has turned in favor of Kamala, though it’s hard to imagine she can actually win there.
Fingers crossed, for the sake of fairness and transparency, I hope we get certainty tonight. Results looked like a lock in 2020, only to flip one-sidedly in a straight line fashion after people started going to sleep – and then a battle over a “rigged” election began and continued until that infamous day January 6.
Assuming Trump wins, it’ll only be the beginning of a tumultuous 2 months ahead. Who will be in charge of the country between now and then?
About the writer: Daniel T. Cook, who joined BMR in June 2016, hails from Texas and now resides in Florida after recently moving from Utah. Daniel has a strong passion for the junior resource sector and has followed the Venture and broader markets with great interest since he bought his first stock more than 20 years ago at the age of 12. He became a licensed investment professional who was a Bright Future’s Scholar at the University of Central Florida, graduating in 2010 with a major in Finance.
Note: Jon holds a share position in DJT. Go MAGA!
