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Gold has traded between $1,286 and $1,301 so far today…as of 7:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $3 an ounce at $1,294…Silver is 13 cents higher at $19.81…Copper is up 4 pennies to $3.02…Crude Oil is 51 cents higher at $101.80 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up slightly at 80.12…

Gold is set to decline for a second straight week and is down almost $100 an ounce from a 6-month high earlier this month as improving sentiment over the U.S. economic outlook has dented its safe-haven appeal…however, bullion is now trading within a strong band of technical support ranging from $1,270 where physical demand may also kick in…prices in China have been at a discount to spot prices this week. indicating a lack of fresh demand above $1,300…

In its latest report, CPM group projects that new Gold mining capacity expected to come on stream by 2016 will be only 12 million ounces, down substantially from the original estimate of 22.8 million ounces…significant increases in mine supply are expected from Brazil, China, DRC, Ghana, Indonesia, Mongolia and the United States this year…among the major Gold producing countries, South Africa and Australia are forecast to see production declines this year, according to CPM…China remains the world’s largest Gold producer, contributing almost 16% of global mine supply last year for a total of 13.8 million ounces…Gold production in China in 2014 is expected to increase 5.6% to 14.5 million ounces.  “Even as production continues to grow,” CPM observed, “the lower prices of Gold and difficulties mining companies are experiencing in securing development financing are reducing projected future increases in production.”

Today’s Markets

China

China‘s Shanghai Composite declined 5 points overnight to close the week at 2042…the Chinese government is due to release its official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) alongside HSBC’s final PMI reading next Tuesday… in a speech two days ago reported by state media today, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the government would gradually roll out targeted measures to aid the economy, fueling speculation of imminent monetary stimulus…

Japan’s Nikkei climbed 73 points overnight to finish at 14696…

Europe

European shares are up significantly in late trading overseas…

North America

The Dow is up 114 points as of 7:45 am Pacific…the Commerce Department reported this morning that consumer spending increased 0.3% last month, in line with expectations, after rising by a revised 0.2% in January (spending was previously reported to have increased 0.4% in January)…meanwhile, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final March reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 80.0 for this month, slightly below expectations…it was up a tick from the preliminary 79.9 March reading but down from 81.6 the month before…

3-Month Dow Daily Chart Update

The Dow is trading more than 700 points above its rising 200-day moving average (SMA) which provided support for the market during the late January/early February weakness…the 200-day currently sits at 15670 as you can see in the chart below…significantly, the Fib. 61.8% support level (16064) has held so far in the pullback from the March high of 16506, and the SMA(50) is also providing support (currently at 16124)…other Fib. support ranges from 15788 (38.2%) to 16064 (61.8%)…the decline in buy pressure since early this month has been quite pronounced but could be short-lived – we’ll see what next week brings…

The TSX is up 109 points as of 7:45 am Pacific while the Venture is 5 points higher at 990…readers may wish to perform their due diligence on Canada Coal Inc. (CCK, TSX-V) which reported during the day yesterday that it’s searching for “new projects” in the resource and non-resource sectors…the company latest financials (Dec. 31) show it’s sitting on nearly $2 million in cash with no liabilities and a current market cap of only $1.5 million (at yesterday’s 3.5-cent close)…CCK is up half a penny at 4 cents through the first 75 minutes of trading…

TSX Gold Index Updated Chart

After a 45% climb in less than three months, it’s not surprising that the TSX Gold Index has given up some of those gains in a consolidation phase with a 17% pullback over just 10 trading sessions between March 14 and yesterday…the correction appears to have largely run its course with RSI(14) hitting previous support at 30% on this 6-month daily chart…the 200-day SMA (179) is just above the Fib. 38.2% level at 175, so that should be the strong support range – 175-179…the Gold Index is up 3 points at 185 as of 7:45 am Pacific…

Highbank Resources Ltd. (HBK, TSX-V)

Highbank Resources (HBK, TSX-V) is moving forward rapidly with its business plan after receiving all the necessary permitting recently to allow for production at its Swamp Point North aggregate project near Prince Rupert…yesterday, the company announced that it has signed an LOI with West Coast Tug & Barge Ltd. of Campbell River, B.C., for barging aggregate from the Swamp Point North operation to destinations in the Port Simpson and Prince Rupert areas…this is Highbank’s competitive advantage – the location of its deposit (on the edge of the Portland Canal) and the ability to move material more cost effectively by barge (as opposed to trucking it over significant distances)…

Below is a 10-year monthly HBK chart from John…the confirmed breakout above 15 cents is significant, and note how buy pressure has recently replaced sell pressure which was dominant since the beginning of 2012…HBK closed yesterday at 17 cents…

Integra Gold Corp. (ICG, TSX-V)

Integra Gold (ICG, TSX-V) continues to make progress at its Lamaque operation near Val d’Or and currently has seven drill rigs on site…results to date are confirming the continuity of high-grade mineralization between existing drill holes at the Triangle deposit…ICG has been consolidating recently after climbing as high as 42 cents in February (support levels shown below), but the purpose of this chart is to demonstrate some technical similarities between ICG and the broader Venture market…note how ICG broke above a long-term downtrend line in late September/early October, right around the same time as the Venture did…this period was really the turning point in the market…ICG then retraced to test the top of that downtrend line (new support) – just as the Venture did – and then immediately powered higher…recently, we’ve seen a very normal pullback in ICG with exceptionally strong support in the mid-20’s which coincides with Fib. levels and a rising 100-day SMA…similar story with the Venture…bottom line – embrace this pullback we’ve seen on the Venture and in Gold stocks as the primary trend remains very bullish…

Note: Jon holds a share position in CCK.