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Gold is pushing higher today after again successfully testing support between $1,440 and $1,450 yesterday…as of 7:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $15 an ounce at $1,467…Silver is flat at $23.95…Copper has gained 9 cents to $3.36 thanks in part to better-than-expected (though suspect) trade data out of China…Crude Oil is 45 cents higher at $96.07 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen nearly half a point to 81.87…

Gold remains in a well-defined trading range with strong support at $1,440 and stiff resistance at the Fibonacci $1,484 level…the next significant move in Gold stocks will come when bullion either overcomes resistance or breaks below support, and unfortunately the charts at this time don’t give us confidence in predicting whether bullion is about to push through $1,484 or retreat below $1,440 in the coming days or weeks…watch for clues in how the Venture trades over the next several days as it will often lead Gold…970 is a key level the Venture must overtake in order for this slow recovery since April 17 to pick up steam…the Venture closed yesterday at 961, just a couple of points below where the rising 10-day and declining 20-day moving averages have converged…960 has been rock-solid support over the last 9 trading sessions on a closing basis…970 is resistance, so we need to watch for a move either below 960 or above 970…keep in mind the Venture has not been above its 20-day SMA since January…the next several trading sessions are going to be very important, and a “breakout” by the Venture would be a bullish signal with regard to Gold…

Colorado Resources (CXO, TSX-V) Updated Chart

The recent drilling discovery by Colorado Resources (CXO, TSX-V) in the Iskut River region of northern B.C. and the activity in this stock, and in a few other companies active in the area, has been a bright spot in an otherwise very dull, struggling market…step-out drilling continues at CXO’s North ROK Property, and they’re also drilling their optioned Eldorado Property to the southeast…if Colorado can deliver more outstanding results from North ROK, and perhaps also make some sort of a discovery at Eldorado – in otherwords, if this play really proves out – then the implications for the Venture will indeed be significant and the current malaise could change in a hurry…there’s nothing like a real discovery to boost confidence and bring investors back to the market…below is an updated 6-month daily chart for CXO…after 3 straight days of gains which took the price from 69 cents to an intra-day high of $1.25 on Monday, Colorado pulled back yesterday and fell 15 cents to close at 96 cents…over 36 million shares (all exchanges) have changed hands in CXO over the past 9 trading days, almost the entire number of shares outstanding…if you think this is wild, it’s nothing compared to what could happen if the company starts hitting on step-out holes and that hope is what’s driving this play so far…John has been very accurate with his Fib. levels on this one, so watch for a possible retracement to the low ’80’s before CXO potentially surges higher…as always, perform your own due diligence and don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose…yes, there are huge upside possibilities but don’t ignore the risks either…volatility in CXO will continue to be high…it’s up a dime at $1.06 through the first 35 minutes of trading this morning…

Pacific Potash Corp. (PP, TSX-V)

One of the top performers on the Venture recently has been Pacific Potash (PP, TSX-V) which recently earned a 100% working interest in the Amazonas basin potash claims and completed the acquisition of the Brazilian company Potassio Ocidental Mineracao Ltda. from Western Potash Corp., a move that aid PP immensely as it pursues strategic investment and business opportunities in Brazil…below is a 2.5-year weekly chart…PP closed up a penny-and-a-half yesterday at 15.5 cents, and appears poised to challenge the next major resistance at 19 cents…

China Trade Data Shows Improvement But Export Numbers Raise Doubts

Strong Chinese import growth in April bolstered confidence in the country’s economy but an equally impressive showing for exports was dogged by doubts about the data…imports rose 16.8% in April from a year earlier, up from a 14.1% rise in March and surpassing expectations…a robust appetite for commodities from iron ore to crude oil showed that Chinese domestic demand is reasonably healthy…exports, meanwhile, increased 14.7% in April from a year earlier, speeding up from a 10% pace in March and topping most forecasts…that left China with an $18.2 billion surplus on the month…in normal circumstances the hefty increase in exports would paint a reassuring picture about global demand…but China’s export data have come under close scrutiny because they have differed dramatically from the trends in neighboring countries…moreover, as has been reported recently (and even acknowledged by the Chinese), there is evidence that exporting firms have used over-invoicing on their sales bills to evade capital controls and sneak cash into China…Yao Wei, an economist with Société Générale, told the Financial Times that export growth “continued to look too good to be true”…she noted that while Taiwan reported a 2.7% fall in imports from China in April, China reported a 49.2% surge in exports to Taiwan…meanwhile, Citigroup economist Ding Shuang told the Wall Street Journal that “this is definitely much better than expected…but this probably reflects some over-invoicing (by exporters)…it was inconsistent with cargo volumes at the nation’s ports”…

Today’s Markets Plus Updated Shanghai Chart

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei closed at a fresh near five-year high today after China’s trade balance swung to a surplus in April…Hong Kong shares hit an 8-week high while China’;s Shanghai Composite closed up 10 points to 2246…below is an interesting 1-year daily chart from John…the Shanghai is showing strong momentum and is threatening to break above a down trendline…a strong move through 2250 would be very bullish…

European shares are slightly higher in late trading overseas…meanwhile, the Dow is down 10 points at 15046 as of 7:05 am Pacific after closing above 15000 for the first time ever yesterday…the Dow is off to its fastest start to any year since the dot-com-fueled bull market of 1999…this time around, however, the surge isn’t driven by blind optimism – many investors simply see few alternatives to stocks, and a lot of retail investors are still on the sidelines unlike back in 1999…the TSX is up 79 points…Kinross Gold (K, TSX) reported slightly lower adjusted first quarter earnings this morning as its margins slipped, even as revenue edged higher…Gold production from continuing operations rose 10% to nearly 650,000 ounces, boosted by increases at the Tasiast mine in Mauritania and Fort Knox in Alaska…on a by-product basis, Kinross’s production cost of sales rose to $674 per ounce from $655 a year earlier, but other cost metrics, including all-in-sustaining costs, improved…through the first hour of trading, Kinross is up 18 cents to $5.46 while the TSX Gold Index has climbed 4 points to 196…the Venture has added 5 points to 967…again, keen an eye on that key 970 level…