BullMarketRun.ca

Gold was under some mild pressure again overnight, falling as low as $1,589…as of 5:45 am Pacific, however, the yellow metal has recovered to $1,599 where it’s now even for the day…Silver is off its lows and is now down just 8 cents to $27.75….Copper is down a penny at $3.35…Crude Oil has slid 38 cents to $93.05 while the U.S. Dollar Index has gained just over one-tenth of a point to 82.67…

Today’s Markets

Asian shares ended lower overnight though overall volume was lighter than usual with no trading in South Korea or India due to public holidays…yesterday’s better-than-expected U.S. retail data discredited the argument that the U.S. economy is sliding rapidly toward recession, and raised questions about the likelihood of fresh Fed stimulus by next month…that’s an argument that will regularly go back-and-forth, however, and new data out this morning (New York manufacturing) was rather weak…China’s Shanghai’s Composite ended down 1.1% at 2119, its lowest close in two weeks…European markets are mildly lower in quiet trading today while stock index futures in New York are as of 5:45 am Pacific are pointing toward a slightly negative open on Wall Street…

Venture Exchange – Long-Term Chart

Below is a fascinating monthly Venture Exchange chart from John that goes back a dozen years and shows how the Venture has been consolidating within a long-term support band (approximately 1150 to 1250) over the past two months which coincides with the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level…a couple of things really stand out with this chart…first, take a look at the monthly RSI(14) which importantly is just now beginning to reverse to the upside…it has been at its lowest level since 2000 with the exception of the 2008 Crash…also, the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicator is almost at its Crash low while the bearish -DI is now weakening after nearly touching its 2008 high…this paints a picture of a market that has bottomed out…the grinding, consolidating action we’ve seen over the past couple of months is very bullish and every investor desperate to sell out of fear has essentially sold…the last nervous nellie, so to speak, has left the room…any market will take the path of least resistance, which is why we believe the likelihood of an upside breakout far exceeds the possibility of a new low…the recent tightening of the Bollinger Bands suggests a sharp move will occur in the very near future…so stay tuned and don’t change the channel, as they say…the Venture closed at 1197 yesterday…it will begin to gain some traction once it can close above the 1200 level…

The Venture Exchange is very sensitive to movements in the commodities markets, and the recent strength in the Canadian and Australian currencies bodes well for commodities over this second half of 2012…the chart below shows how the Australian Dollar (vs. the Japanese Yen, black line) and the Canadian Dollar (vs. the U.S. Dollar, blue line) continue to perform well after bottoming out at the end of June…

Comstock Metals (CSL, TSX-V)

We’ve been tracking Comstock Metals (CSL, TSX-V) since late last month when it reported some really outstanding initial trenching results from its QV Project in the White Gold District of the Yukon (3.74 g/t Au over 75 metres with very consistent mineralization throughout)…the company also recently reported very encouraging soil sampling results…volume in the stock has been strong and the company also just completed a $1.3 million financing…with approximately 50 million shares outstanding, and the stock in all-time high territory, CSL could be in for a really strong September if it can continue momentum on the ground…technically, the CSL chart overall looks very powerful but the overbought RSI(2) suggests it may not be ready just yet for another explosion to the upside…keep a close eye on this one, however, as any weakness would have to be considered an excellent accumulation opportunity…

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

It’s been a while since we’ve done a chart update on Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) but the stock has been mentioned rather frequently recently in our comments section, so here goes…the stock has gained ground the last couple of trading sessions and the volume yesterday was the highest in several months as GBB gained half a penny on over 1 million shares (all exchanges)…as outlined by John below, a breakout requires a confirmed close above 11 cents while a strong band of resistance exists between 15 and 18 cents…we continue to have great confidence in the Granada Gold Property but GBB needs to show it can execute efficiently on the ground…requires some good news to rebuild confidence and gain some serious traction…

Note: Jon, John and Terry do not hold share positions in CSL.  Terry holds a position in GBB.