Gold traded as high as $1,618 this morning but has since retreated after U.S. retail sales figures and inflation data were released…as of 6:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $14 an ounce at $1,596…Silver is 11 cents lower at $27.72…Copper is up 2 pennies to $3.36…Crude Oil had added 31 cents to $93.04 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up slightly at 82.48…
Today’s Markets
Asian shares were higher overnight while European markets are showing modest gains…stock index futures in New York are pointing toward a positive open on Wall Street…U.S. retail sales rose much more than expected in July – 0.8% – while producer prices climbed at the fastest pace (0.3%) in five months…
German Growth Exceeds Expectations But Euro Zone Still Contracts
The euro zone edged closer to recession after a resilient economic performance from Germany and France failed to stop the single currency bloc from contracting in the second quarter…gross domestic product in the euro area shrank 0.2% in the three months to June, compared with the previous three months when there was no growth, as the economies of Greece, Italy, Spain and Finland contracted sharply…robust investment and domestic consumption helped the German economy expand 0.3% in the second quarter, beating expectations of just 0.1% growth, while French GDP remained unchanged, avoiding a highly anticipated contraction…the Netherlands also outperformed forecasts, growing 0.2%…many bullish traders seem to consider the European figures to be just what they need…meek but not bad enough to spook the market. Better than expected, but not so much that they reduce the chances of more central bank help in coming months…
Venture Exchange
Our main message this morning is that something is brewing with the Venture Exchange, as it appears to have reached the point of total sellers’ exhaustion…be prepared for a breakout to the upside in the near future as the bulls are regaining control after losing it in March…John’s latest chart shows a weakening bearish trend, a Bollinger Band squeeze, a bullish RSI pattern, and a market that’s trading above its EMA-20 for the first time in several months…while we have yet to see a major buying push, what does appear to have occurred is total sellers’ exhaustion…this is the opposite, of course, of buyers’ exhaustion at a top which is what occurred in early 2011…so there is no better time to be positioned in quality plays than right now in our view…it’s important to note that a rising tide will not lift all boats, however, so we strongly urge you to focus on the companies who have been the most aggressive and successful in this market since the spring and have exploration programs in progress – they will move the most (by far) in the coming weeks…a 20% rise in the Venture, should it occur, will result in 50% to 100% gains and better for numerous stocks…the last several months have been agonizing for many investors but now could be a great time to make some hay…
It seems certain now that selling pressure can no longer drive this market to new lows, and the next major move is to the upside…that’s what the Venture chart is telling us…yesterday’s action was a great example of how the bearish trend continues to weaken dramatically…on a day when Gold, Silver and Copper were all down, in addition to both the Dow and the TSX, the Venture Exchange climbed 6 points to 1197…once it pushes through 1200, the Venture can start to gain some serious traction…that’s the key level it needs to get above at this point…
Canamex Resources (CSQ, TSX-V)
The companies that will perform the best in a late summer/fall rally will be the ones that have been outperforming the market recently and are being aggressive with their exploration…investors will reward the companies that come out with excellent results – and we’ve seen several examples of that over the past few months when the Venture was really struggling…one situation – a volume leader – to keep a close eye on is Canamex Resources (CSQ, TSX-V) which just completed a nearly $3 million financing, one reason the stock has been in a consolidation phase after a huge run-up that was triggered by a powerful drill result (118 metres grading 4.08 g/t Au in Nevada)…patience is important with this one as another strong wave to the upside could follow in the coming weeks…below is an updated CSQ chart from John…
Newstrike Capital (NES, TSX-V)
The value of Newstrike Capital (NES, TSX-V), which has an outstanding Gold project (Ana Paula) in Mexico, has been chopped in half from its February high of more than $3 per share…it does appear to have bottomed out since late June and a rally back up to the rising 500-day moving average around $2 per share would be a 30% jump from yesterday’s closing price of $1.55…below is an updated NES chart from John…
Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in CSQ or NES.
In 2010 Jon, you frequently wrote of The Blue Sky Potential of GBB’s
Granada property. I believe the upcoming 2nd RE may confirm your past
optimism. Is it possible for John to provide an updated GBB Chart?
It appears like the Venture Exchange, the GBB
sellers are exhausted and GBB has lots more buyers.
Betty
Comment by betty — August 14, 2012 @ 6:15 am
I still very much like the property and its potential, and the numbers have been good – the troubles for GBB have been in executing efficiently on the ground…….we’ll get John to take a look at a chart…….
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 14, 2012 @ 6:35 am
Jon is correct. Management has made costly mistakes…that was with Genivar. Now they have SGS whom are incredible. They have found them mills close by that have permits and capacity whom will process their GOLD. They do not need to do pp due to the poured gold!!! They will b self funding. They have made mistakes but learned and now with SGS and capacity close by they r able to execute their plan and become a producer. The property was never the question. BMR was correct from the get go the issue was the management. Now that is rectified. They have mutual fund managers in New York Stockholm and Toronto well versed on the property. If they r not buying now…which I suspect they r, they will b buying as soon as the 2nd 43-101 comes out in early fall.Some funds have rules against purchases without a re and 2nd 43-101.
Comment by Natalie — August 14, 2012 @ 6:48 am
Absolutely Natalie. If this rumour proves to be true, and it has been stated as an aim of the management to begin production, then GBB becomes disconnected from these horrendous credit markets, and can develop under its own steam.
I see there is very little on the ask up to 14.5c.
Comment by Rosco — August 14, 2012 @ 6:59 am
Natalie, I agree with you. Genivar caused much pain to we shareholders.
SGS are performing. They planned to drill 3 targets in deep holes. It appears
they hit in 1st target, appears they hit in 2nd target, obviously found what
they were looking for and rather than drill the 3rd, moved the drill to west area.
Frank corrected the Genivar problem when he hired SGS. Let us not dwell on the
negative, but accentuate the positive which is The Blue Sky Potential of Granada
that Jon wrote so often and got me, and I am sure others interested in buying
shares of GBB. It has been a long haul but I can see the light at the end of
the tunnel. Jon, thank you in advance for GBB chart.
Betty
Comment by betty — August 14, 2012 @ 7:06 am
smartstox.com/interviews/gbb
interview from the spring…. great information
Comment by Natalie — August 14, 2012 @ 7:10 am
Natalie: appreciate your updates on GBB. I’ve stayed with this through thick and thin (mostly thin!) reasoning that a resource such as Granada will eventually show its true value. You mentioned that Eric Coffin is mentioning the stock again. I used to subscribe to the HRA but no longer. Can you tell us what specifically he says? Many thanks.
Comment by Roger — August 14, 2012 @ 7:20 am
Since this brief correspondence, the Coffin brothers elevated GBB from its “watch” to “speculative buy” list a few weeks ago. This recommendation did not appear in the monthly Hard Rock Analyst newsletter but was an e-mail alert to premium subscribers – a significant development for GBB. Following this “outside” confirmation of GBB’s potential, as BMR readers know, Jim Slater (details below) added his voice in support of GBB:
August 14, 2010
āElephants Donāt Gallup, And I Like To Gallupā: Jim Slater
BMR got an excellent response to the first half of our interview with Jim Slater Thursday, and now weāre pleased to present the second half which begins with a further discussion on gold. We also ask Jim about the UK-based Junior Mining Fund heās involved with and some of the stocks in that portfolio including Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) and Spanish Mountain Gold (SPA, TSX-V).
At BMR, we strongly believe that one of the best ways to make money is to surround yourself with those who have it and learn from them. It was my great pleasure this week to speak with Mr. Slater who who knows how to make money and has a track record to prove it. He is not only highly respected for his ability to uncover winning investments (often under-researched smaller companies that deliver massive gains) but he has been an extremely successful entrepreneur and author with 81 years of wisdom under his belt. He has written many books including āThe Zulu Principleā, a best-seller, and āHow To Become A Millionaireā which he co-wrote with Tom Stevenson.
Jim is bullish on gold and quality gold mining shares which he chooses very carefully. We highly suggest you check out his web site:
jimslater.org.uk.
Click on the link below to listen to Part 2 of BMRās interview with Jim Slater:
BMR Jim Slater Interview ā Part 2
Thus, as Jon suggested it would, this story is slowly but surely attracting the kind of attention that should help propel GBB to the next level.
Thanks again for all the great info here.
Roger
Comment by Natalie — August 14, 2012 @ 7:50 am
GBB seems to pick up steam…..volume is up and now touching $0.11
Comment by M. — August 14, 2012 @ 8:07 am
Natalie:
I just listened to Franks Spring interview again. He emphasized they have
drilled 800 holes. We know the 1st RE contained 326 holes, the remaining
78 are to be in 2nd RE = 404 holes. Where are the remaining 396 holes?
Could they be historical, and not included in 43-101??
Betty
Comment by betty — August 14, 2012 @ 8:08 am
Jon, I agree with the call on the Venture breaking out here shortly. $78 on silver is a good call, some analysts I follow have said $80, so this is right on. Lets make some money.
Comment by dave — August 14, 2012 @ 8:44 am
Natalie, your comments regarding Eric Coffin have me confused. You seem to be citing a recommendation from two years ago. Am I to conclude that your earlier reference was to this? Is there no new recommendation after all?
Comment by Roger — August 14, 2012 @ 8:47 am
By the way to Natalie. My GOOD LUCK post to you yesterday was not sarcastic, I merely meant good luck in a sincere way. I am not in GBB at the moment. I have looked at the transactions of the houses exchanging shares. The right houses are buying GBB right now. It could start a new uptrend here. Again, good luck, lets all make some money. I’m off to work. Later gang.
Comment by dave — August 14, 2012 @ 9:20 am
Some respectable volume with RBW today – price action normal – buying pressure still there – need to crack 24 as there too many sellers lined up there for their 35%-50% returns to materialize at that level. Bagholders at the high 20’s will have their turn but need to wait.
Quick question for the BMR fellas – RBW just had a 1000 shares sell into the bid – can’t help but wonder what type of a retail trader would ever even bother buying/selling 1000 measily shares? never understood the motive behind this sort of buying/selling behaviour. If it were a price manipulation tactic on part of an institutional trader, I would understand. Any insight on this?
Comment by alex — August 14, 2012 @ 10:14 am
smartstox interview….
smartstox.com/interviews/rbw
Comment by db — August 14, 2012 @ 10:15 am
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves folks. We may just be getting set up for a bear trap. This could end up as another summer like last year. I don’t forsee QE3 coming out in September because markets are rallying and hitting all time highs. If markets continue their uptrend you can guarantee Bernanke will not be issuing QE3 because there will be no need and this will be negative news which will plummet the markets. Beware we are almost there.
Even though markets look like they are rebounding right now the CDNX hasn’t moved nor has gold closed above 1640.
There are many indicator suggesting we may have bottomed but markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Don Coxe is suggesting increasing your cash weighting to 15%.
Comment by Andrew M — August 14, 2012 @ 1:21 pm
@ Andrew. Havnt seen a positive comment from you yet. Your motives are very transparent. Market could go on a six month bull rally and you would still be coming in here telling everyone the world was coming to an end
Comment by Heath — August 14, 2012 @ 6:09 pm
BGM has been given a cease trade order against it. Not surprised. CSL looking very interestig. Markets and gold just might be getingbready to tank and then a kaboom for gold and silver. richard l
Comment by richard l — August 14, 2012 @ 7:49 pm
Andrew M – I Agree with you. I think the gold bulls are too bullish near term.
Comment by Hugh — August 15, 2012 @ 1:56 am
zerohedge.com/news/goldman-pulls-plug-more-qe-2012
Comment by Hugh — August 15, 2012 @ 2:52 am