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August 2, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is trying to rebound, after weakness yesterday, and is up $1 an ounce at $1,601 as of 4:30 am Pacific…Silver is flat at $27.44…Copper down 2 cents at $3.35…Crude Oil has added 19 cents to $89.10 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off nearly one-fifth of a point at 82.89…

ECB – Will Draghi Back Up Words With Action?

All eyes this morning are on the European Central Bank…its rate meeting ends at 4:45 am Pacific followed by a press briefing at 5:30 a.m., one hour prior to the opening of markets in North America…expectations are running very high after Mario Draghi’s bold comments last week, and whether Draghi can follow-through on his words with concrete action to satisfy the markets is the question…a German newspaper reported this morning that the ECB is preparing “concerted action” with euro zone countries to bring down the borrowing costs of heavily indebted countries including Spain and Italy…according to the paper, the ECB would join forces with the region’s permanent rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism or ESM, to coordinate the purchase of Italian and Spanish debt…under the plan, the ESM would buy bonds directly from the governments, while the ECB would buy them on the market…however, the newspaper added that the ECB would not announce an official decision on such a move today…it was more likely that Draghi would echo comments he made last week when he said the bank would do all it could to save the euro…one of the problems with the above plan is that the ESM cannot come into force until Germany approves it, and a German top court will rule on the ratification of the ESM September 12…

An important test of investor appetite for Spanish paper came today when Madrid auctioned 3.1 billion euros of 2, 4, and 10-year bonds…borrowing costs rose but demand was decent and this has helped the Spanish 2-year yield drop to 4.79%, down 14 basis points on the day…

Fed Hints At Near-Term Action

The Federal Reserve did pretty much as expected yesterday, raising hopes that it will act to boost the economy in September (following its Jackson Hole symposium) as it kept policy on hold but showed a strong bias toward further easing…the rate-setting FOMC forecast that it will keep interest rates low until late 2014 – dashing market hopes that it might extend that date into 2015 – and did not launch a new round of quantitative easing…however, the central bank said in its statement, “The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed“…translation: the Fed will move if growth and employment don’t pick up soon on their own…

Attention now shifts to events in coming weeks, including the Labor Department’s report Friday on July unemployment…the Fed didn’t have those figures, which officials watch very closely, at its latest meeting…then, on August 31, Bernanke returns to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, site of the central bank’s annual retreat and a backdrop for past Fed turning points…”We could have an event like we had back in August 2010 where he telegraphed [a second round of bond buying],” Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management, told the Wall Street Journal…”That speech is going to be much more important than this statement”…

Kinross CEO Gets The Boot

Canada’s third-largest Gold company, Kinross Gold Corp., has abruptly replaced its chief executive officer, the second high-profile dismissal of a major Gold company president since June…while the TSX Gold Index is off more than 30% from its all-time high last summer, Kinross shares have taken a much more severe beating and are trading at about a third of their value of a year ago…the company said yesterday that J. Paul Rollinson, who was executive vice-president of corporate development, would replace Tye W. Burt as chief executive officer…Rollinson has also replaced Mr. Burt on the Kinross board of directors…the company cited “current market and industry fundamentals” among the reasons for the change, which comes amid investor discontent over a massive writedown at the company earlier this year…Burt took a gamble and lost when Kinross completed the largest acquisition in the company’s 19-year history in the summer of 20120 when it bought Red Back Mining Inc. for $7.1 billion…the deal won its possession of the massive undeveloped Tasiast Gold deposit in Mauritania, but it also brought headaches as the company was forced to write down $2.49 billion on the project (the biggest loss in its history) amid soaring costs and changing project parameters…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were mostly mildly lower overnight while European shares are higher this morning…stock index futures in New York as of 4:30 am Pacific, prior to the ECB announcement, are pointing toward a positive open on Wall Street…

The Venture Exchange looked strong yesterday as it closed at its high for the day (1190) despite losses in Gold and Silver and in the broader equity markets…

Rainbow Resources Inc. (RBW, TSX-V) Update – Chart Turns Very Bullish

The drill permit for Rainbow Resources‘ (RBW, TSX-V) International Silver Property is expected today or tomorrow, given guidance from the B.C. Ministry of Mines as uncovered by one of our astute readers nearly a week ago…yesterday, Rainbow firmed up on a surge in volume and closed at 20 cents – its highest closing price since mid-May…technically, the stock is showing tremendous strength and its 50-day moving average (SMA) has just reversed to the upside to go along with rising 10, 20, 200 and 300-day moving averages…this bodes well for a potential powerful move in August with drilling expected to get under way this month at the International…

Below is an updated 1-year weekly RBW chart from John…notice how RBW, like GQC and a handful of others, are significantly outperforming the CDNX


GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V)

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) gained 12 cents yesterday to close at $1.40, a more than 20-fold increase since our write-up in late May just prior to the company’s announcement of a major discovery at its Escandalosa (Las Tres Palmas) Project in the Dominican Republic…the fact Dundee Securities stepped up to the plate so quickly on a $10 million+ financing the other day, immediately after release of GQC’s latest assay results, is evidence that there’s still a great deal of potential upside…the chart is powerful and the next Fibonacci level John is looking at is $1.95…


Comstock Metals (CSL, TSX-V)

Discoveries will be rewarded in this market, so continue to keep a close eye not only on GoldQuest and Rainbow, but also on Comstock Metals (CSL, TSX-V) which recently reported an outstanding trench result (3.74 g/t Au over 75 metres) from its QV Project in the heart of the White Gold District in the Yukon…mineralization consists of quartz veins, stockwork, silicification and weak brecciation, accompanied by minor pyritethe property features a 1.8-kilometre-long Gold-in-soil anomaly…Comstock’s trenching results compare very favorably with the initial trench results from Kinross‘ White Gold deposit 15 kilometres to the south of the QV Project and from Kaminak Gold’s (KAM, TSX-V) Coffee Project…with a just-completed financing, Comstock has approximately 55 million shares outstanding…

Huldra Silver (HDA, TSX-V) Chart Update


Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX) Chart Update

Note: John holds a share position in Rainbow Resources.  Jon holds share positions in Rainbow and GoldQuest Mining.  Terry does not hold share positions in any of the above.


20 Comments

  1. Mr Draughi had his say & it appears the market don’t like it. The futures
    moved from around 100 pts. up to 50 pts. down. I just can’t believe it ! All
    the European stocks were well up, but are well down now…
    I actually believe, when the hot fingers are gone, the Dow will again move up.
    Boy oh boy, this European fiasco has taken it’s toll on our markets.
    We will come back. R !

    Comment by bert — August 2, 2012 @ 4:50 am

  2. How about that EVR interview, it was supposed to be out this week

    Comment by john — August 2, 2012 @ 5:48 am

  3. This week is not over, coming soon…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 2, 2012 @ 6:01 am

  4. Looks like RBW has a trading wall that will not crack the 20 ask until something notable occurs. MM’s have a tight grip and will keep replenishing the ask at 20 no matter what.

    Pretty annoying but welcome to the venture dumpster exchange. Patience is the only solution.

    Jon am I being offside here?

    Comment by alex — August 2, 2012 @ 6:38 am

  5. Here it is: 🙂

    Rainbow Mobilizes Drill Rig to International Silver Property
    (via Thenewswire.ca)
    TORONTO, ONTARIO, August 2, 2012: Rainbow Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE: RBW) (“Rainbow” or the “Company”) is pleased to report that the Company is mobilizing a drill rig to its 100%-owned International Silver Property in the prolific West Kootenay region of southeast British Columbia following receipt of a drill permit from the British Columbia Ministry of Energy and Mines.
    Drilling is expected to commence by the end of next week with a series of initial shallow holes to test for continuity of high-grade mineralization along an exposed structure.
    The 4,000-hectare International Property, where silver was first discovered in the early 1900’s, has never been previously drilled despite numerous historical workings and highly encouraging showings over a broad area. Drill targets have been carefully selected, based on historical information and several years of systematic exploration started by privately-held Braveheart Resources Canada Inc. which was acquired by Rainbow in the fall of last year.

    Comment by Andrew — August 2, 2012 @ 7:36 am

  6. As expected & confirms the buyers yesterday were close to the company, i think ?

    Rainbow Mobilizes Drill Rig to International Silver Property

    Comment by bert — August 2, 2012 @ 7:39 am

  7. Andrew was right on……it only made sense the permit would come this week. Nice to see they’re mobilizing right away. Next week should start to get very interesting.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 2, 2012 @ 7:51 am

  8. RBW – nice:) I need some help…. why with gold down 12-13 bucks and in fact down from 1615 this am is GDX and GDXJ, along with RIC TNX et al.. all in the green and not just barely either… UGD… doing well as well..
    not that there is a panic mode setting in… but it is… and if I am the normal indicator no is THE time to buy siince I just sold some stuff…
    cant wait for GIC’s to get back up to 20%:)
    but seriously folks… any thoughts???

    Comment by Jeremy — August 2, 2012 @ 9:02 am

  9. We recieved the news we have been waiting/fighting for, lol, and still can’t break 20 cents.

    Jon,

    if things go perfect what is the soonest that there good be drilling results?

    thanks

    Comment by greg — August 2, 2012 @ 9:12 am

  10. Patience, Greg……patience…..it’s a negative day on the markets, and coming into a long holiday weekend in Canada…..I believe we’ll see RBW break out next week and I’m sure there’s more information coming down the pipe, possibly even visuals of the core if they decide to do that (before assays)……so this is still very early stages…..should be a nice build-up as the month progresses…..

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 2, 2012 @ 9:30 am

  11. check out bgm 5 day chart broke through 90 cent range very cheep stock if numbers hold

    Comment by gil — August 2, 2012 @ 12:24 pm

  12. Fully agreed with BMR… Patience is the key to success for all of us. Once it is there, the stock is going to fly! Of course, I am holding a portolio of this one. GQC has a minor adjustment today but it will pick up the momentum to fly another mile higher!

    Comment by Theodore — August 2, 2012 @ 12:30 pm

  13. Jon, just trying to understand the process. “On Saturday, Jon had a 1-hour conversation (interview) with Everton Resources”

    What happens next in the process? Editing? Review by Everton? Is the final release date set by the the company being interviewed or BMR?

    Understanding the process would make waiting more bearable.

    In any case I know the interview will prove to have been worth waiting for.

    Comment by George Wohanka — August 2, 2012 @ 12:43 pm

  14. Hmm… drilling permit came through and the price actually dropped half a cent… what the heck..

    Comment by Muiyan — August 2, 2012 @ 4:27 pm

  15. A weak overall market today didn’t help, but watch this accelerate beginning next Tuesday after the holiday IMHO. The chart looks fantastic and the onset of drilling and the possibility of an early strike will allow for interest to build significantly in this. So there was nothing wrong with today’s action at all. Just one “down” day out of the last 6. We’ve sent out some alerts tonight as we believe Friday will be the last chance to load up before buying pressure really ramps up. Today’s news was interesting in that it was very matter-of-fact, short and even low-key. My gut tells me RBW is holding back some surprises for next week.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 2, 2012 @ 9:58 pm

  16. Jon – My gut tells me RBW is holding back some surprises for next week.

    Bert – In-testine we trust….. I was somewhat disappointed that RBW didn’t entice
    buyers after the news yesterday, but it was a really bad day out there.
    Although i absolutely believe in this play, it may take a day or two of
    good market sentiment for buyers to take the plunge. I expect a better
    day today for RBW, but being a long weekend, we may have to wait until next
    week. I don’t have to tell anyoneg that we are in a different market & it
    may take more than a NR, in particular when you consider that the market won’t
    jump, unless it sees 100 plus meters of 4 or 5 gms gold per tonne….Everything
    is up again this morning & to see it continue, we need to see a very positive
    jobs report, which will to be out before the market opens this morning. We may
    need 100,000 plus new jobs created to have a good chance of ending in the green.
    Whatever, we shall overcome somehow. R !

    Comment by Bert — August 3, 2012 @ 2:45 am

  17. It’s a process, George, as the interview was over half an hour and involves a fair bit of editing to possibly piece together into 2 shorter parts. And it has been a busy week….so it is coming….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 3, 2012 @ 3:56 am

  18. Some out there may be reluctant to pass on a stock pick until they get a
    position themselves, which i feel, is a sensible thing to do, but i am going
    to be different. I will be trying to buy stock RBW today, while it’s cheap.
    Everything is a gamble, including life, not knowing what may happen from one
    minute to another, but if our market turns around, which is expected from
    this day forth, RBW will be the place to be.. Some may think that by telling
    everyone what i intend doing, i have a motive & i do. Most will dismiss my
    rambling as hype & hopefully your concentration will be blurred by my boldness,
    while i sneak in & buy RBW. Smart trick ? R !

    Bert.

    Comment by Bert — August 3, 2012 @ 4:06 am

  19. Wow !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Jobs up by 163K. A good day in the market for sure.

    Comment by Bert — August 3, 2012 @ 4:31 am

  20. I am predicting RBW with a closing at least 10% gain on Aug 3!

    Comment by Theodore — August 3, 2012 @ 4:51 am

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