Gold has traded in a range between $1,640 and $1,659 so far today as it continues to consolidate….as of 5:55 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $17 an ounce at $1,646…Silver is off 71 cents to $32.21…Copper has lost 9 cents to $3.81…Crude Oil is $1 lower at $107.09 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-quarter of a point to 79.77…
Contributing to commodity weakness this morning was BHP Billiton’s warning of slowing demand growth from China for its iron ore…we shouldn’t read too much into that, however…China has taken steps in recent years to cut its dependence on foreign owned iron ore with domestic iron ore mining capacity growing by an average of 25% annually according to China Daily…domestic iron ore production increased by 283 million tons, or 27.2%, last year alone…meanwhile, Rio Tinto PLC’s iron ore chief executive, Sam Walsh, says he does expect China to remain a key driver of iron ore demand growth…Walsh said China is “resilient,” as it is equipped to underline its growth with fiscal and monetary changes and has increasing rates of household and corporate savings…
Deutsche Bank will be opening a new precious metals vault in London next year, according to a report this morning in the Financial Times, as it joins a number of banks and logistics companies seeking to cash in on booming investor demand for physical Gold and Silver…ETF’s now hold a record 80.3 million ounces of Gold worth $133 billion, according to UBS….that’s more than any central bank apart from the U.S. or Germany…Deutsche Bank said the decision to open the new vault came “in response to increased demand from the market for bullion storage facilities”…
The Hot Oil Market
Saudi Arabia is taking steps to cool the overheating global energy market, boosting its exports to the U.S. and re-opening old oilfields to expand production, as the world’s largest oil producer tries to prevent damage to the global economic recovery…the Saudi cabinet yesterday said the kingdom would work “individually” and with others for the “return of oil prices to fair levels”…Saudi Arabia`s oil minister plans to expand on the measures the kingdom is taking at a meeting of oil ministers of the Gulf Co-operation Council today in the capital of Qatar…
The world`s appetite for oil is not going to recede which is why President Obama is on the wrong side of energy history…as the chief executive of Shell predicted in a CNBC interview this morning, `Longer term you will see demand rising and we will need all investments to cope with that demand…in the very long-term we will see prices going up because of high demand and as it gets more expensive to get the resources out of the ground`…
Obama continues to argue that America uses more than 20% of the world`s oil although “even if we drill in every square inch of the country, we still only have 2% of the world’s known oil reserves”…that is such an incredibly misleading statement, especially considering that it comes from the mouth of a President who should know better…but of course Obama has an agenda to “transform” America, a “transformation” we should all be very alarmed about…
According to the Institute for Energy Research, when you include oil shale, the U.S. has 1.4 trillion barrels of technically recoverable oil…that’s enough to meet all U.S. oil needs for about the next 200 years, without any imports…Investors Business Daily recently reported that the U.S. now has 60 times more recoverable oil reserves than Obama claims, and that doesn’t even include the natural gas shale revolution which has already slashed electricity prices for homes and businesses and will eventually be used more and more in transportation…Obama’s hostility to fossil fuels, also witnessed by his stance on Keystone, is ideologically-driven and threatens American national security…any U.S. President who doesn’t jump instantly on an opportunity to secure strategic long-term supplies of friendly (and ethical) Canadian oil is clearly on the wrong side of history in many ways…
Politics aside, let’s take a look at the latest oil chart from John and what it shows is the likelihood of continued firm and even higher prices…light crude broke above resistance yesterday and a move to $120 a barrel by sometime in April or May is a very real possibility…
Silver Chart Update
Silver has enjoyed a solid 2012 so far and is currently consolidating in advance of what we believe will be a major run to the upside as the year progresses…right now the first area of significant resistance, as you can see in John’s chart below, is $33 which is also the 50-day moving average (SMA)…a test of the $28 – $30 area can’t be ruled out but that would be the bottom in our view before a powerful new advance sets in…Silver could very well be the “investment of the decade” which is why it’s so important to identify high quality Silver stocks, exploration companies and producers, before they explode to the upside…
One quality Silver producer that has just touched its rising 300-day SMA for the first time since 2010 is Scorpio Mining (SPM, TSX) which closed up 8 cents yesterday to $1.71 after falling as low as $1.61…Scorpio produced nearly 3 million Silver equivalent ounces last year and has strong growth potential with its large land position and numerous exploration targets in Mexico…SPM has fallen 17% this month but yesterday’s low is certainly strong support as John’s chart shows…
Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in SPM.
Anyone residing in Calgary?
Rainbow Special Events
RAINBOW ROUND-UP!
2012 Event #1
Thursday, March 29 – 2:30 pm
Calgary, Alberta
International Hotel, 35th Floor
220 – 4th Ave. SW
Meet Company Officials
“RBW Insider Report” From President David W. Johnston
Review Of 1st Quarter & Plans Going Forward
Free Food & Refreshments
RSVP:
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(403) 701-2781
[email protected]
Comment by Alexandre — March 20, 2012 @ 5:55 am
Anyone have any ideas thoughts or comments on what catalyst will be needed/required to turn the juniors around….???? how can a resource that Canaco has have their stock under a buck..??
Comment by Jeremy — March 20, 2012 @ 6:28 am
Don’t miss out on mki.v
Demographics are on their side
Comment by Moosey — March 20, 2012 @ 6:32 am
LOR.T is Bio play of the day
Comment by db — March 20, 2012 @ 6:50 am
Hi BMR,
can someone give me a comment regarding the cancellation of options from CQX.
Appreciated.
Brgds
Comment by Peyman — March 20, 2012 @ 7:05 am
No idea, nor is it important…they recently granted 2.2 million options at 17 cents per share…the ones that were cancelled (just 225,000) were granted previously at 10 cents per share….so they save on a few options….a financing is what’s critical right now and hopefully they can pull that together…
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 20, 2012 @ 7:16 am
Hi BMR,
Any comments on the ventures performance? Looks to have breached the “bottom” you had called on – it’s done nothing but head south during the past 10-15 sessions and while I completely understand that you’re a big picture thinker, one has to admit that it’s lackluster performance has to be sending off some red flags. My concern is that it doesn’t bode well after you thought 1585 was an important bottom not long ago. Unless I’m missing something.
Would appreciate your thoughts on this.
Thanks in advance…
Comment by Alex — March 20, 2012 @ 7:29 am
I’m assuming BMR is going to say not worry cause there is support at 1575, if it doesn’t hold then you have support at 1550, if that doesn’t hold you have support at 1500 etc……..
It’s a total crapshoot at this point. Until speculators want to take on risky investment vehicles the venture is not the place to be. It has lagged major markets for well over a year now
Comment by Moosey — March 20, 2012 @ 8:15 am
Okay, Moosey, I suggest you stick to those blue chips…
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 20, 2012 @ 8:22 am
personally, I think the txs.v is still in a downward trend from last March. Looks like it did a double top recently.
Comment by dave — March 20, 2012 @ 8:23 am
db – bought LOR at open but sold recently. no momemtum on it. good Luck
Comment by dave — March 20, 2012 @ 8:24 am
dave i also jumped ship earlier… too bad, it really looked like it was going to go. I made a very small profit but cant complain when the day seems to be a sea of red…
Comment by db — March 20, 2012 @ 8:27 am
I’m not the least bit concerned, especially when you see such rampant pessimism – always a good sign….a breach of 1575 on a closing basis would suggest this market may have a little more to go on the downside, let’s see what happens…it was a bad time to be a seller in early October, again in December and again in this weakness now IMHO…
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 20, 2012 @ 8:30 am
Jon have you heard or talked to anyone from RBW this week? Are you expecting any news in next couple days. @ other things…
1. Do you think its a strong possibility to company goes the direction HDA did and apply for a line of credit (HDA did a 10million LOC) instead of more pps to help spare dilution?
2. Have you heard when drilling might commence? Snow must be melting as we speak…
Comment by db — March 20, 2012 @ 8:40 am
Blue chips for the most part have greatly outperformed venture stocks. I do hold some venture stocks but I keep myself somewhat protected with large caps, cash, and bonds. I do appreciate the fact that u guys are offering your time with free service but I do think that it can also be a disservice to some when u always try to paint a rosy picture mostly on technicals, which is only one of many analytical tools. I for one would like someday to see in your musings that you cautious at times or admit that your completely wrong on a call. People like transparency especially when providing financial promotions. I still like to see some sort of portfolio performance track record from u guys. That way investors can determine credibility for bmr
Comment by Moosey — March 20, 2012 @ 8:53 am
“I still like to see some sort of portfolio performance track record from u guys.”
Which portfolio are you talking about.
Comment by John - BMR — March 20, 2012 @ 9:08 am
The list u highlight/recommend. I know u state not to take your work as investment advice but when u say a stock is a strong buy for example there is enough people that read this site and use it as their main source dd unfortunately. What I am saying is it would be nice some sort of track record of your investment decisions that u bring forward to your readers
Comment by Moosey — March 20, 2012 @ 9:18 am
Moosey
It is not true we “Always try to paint a rosy picture mostly on technicals” and that we are not cautious at times……
Will you please read today’s Silver Chart.
Comment by John - BMR — March 20, 2012 @ 9:24 am
“I for one would like someday to see in your Musings that you (sic) cautious at times or admit that (sic) your completely wrong on a call“. Moosey, at various times last year, including as early as March, we expressed a lot of caution regarding the Venture (of course we were criticized by some for this) and it was only in January when we turned flat-out bullish again. So I don’t know how closely you’ve actually been following what we’ve been saying. Are we always right? Of course not, and no one is. We’ve made some bad calls but we’ve made some 10-bagger calls too, and it only takes one of them to make a fortune. With these speculative stocks, the trick is to keep your losses to a minimum and let your winners run. On Gold, John has been remarkably accurate. Anyway, I’m not interested in wasting my time with this and neither is John. There are more bargains to look for.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 20, 2012 @ 9:26 am
Moosey,
BMR warned us SEVERAL times during 2011 that the under-performance of the Venture was troublesome and that they were seeing lower prices. Know your history or be quiet.
Comment by Steve — March 20, 2012 @ 9:32 am
There is also numerous times throughtout last year that BMR was stating now is the time to be acquiring good quality juniors. That was stated in the summer months. It was only in the fall after a huge drop in the cDNA that BMR discovered it to be a bear market. I also remember commentary in the fall stated “fasten your seat belts” after a fed speech assuming the market was going to rocket ahead. I think people’s memories are shortsighted.
Comment by Moosey — March 20, 2012 @ 9:51 am
And yes, ok, there were some cautious statements that were quickly followed by misleading indicators such as rising moving averages
Comment by Moosey — March 20, 2012 @ 9:54 am
And where were you? Running your own site guiding people through rough times?
No?
I’m shocked
Comment by Steve — March 20, 2012 @ 10:07 am
Protecting my money
Comment by Moosey — March 20, 2012 @ 10:22 am
Ok, keep on doing that and stop spread your bad mood here please
Comment by Steve — March 20, 2012 @ 10:26 am
ok…. so gold is down, and the hui is up….. logically as always it doesnt make sense… unless the conspiracy theory comes back into play!!:)
Comment by Jeremy — March 20, 2012 @ 10:36 am
BMR
I think you want to maintain or obtain credibility then you need to provide a cautious stance in the wake of uncertainty. I think I was touting back 3 weeks ago that I saw a divergence in performance of the CDNX and the large indices (Dow,SP,and TSX) – the CDNX underperforming. This was no mentioned at all, in fact BMR was always writing about its outperformance and sounded more like drum beaters. Sometimes I question your credibility and motives and would love to see your trades over the course of your drum beating.
Regardless, its nice to have your technical reviews, but I think you guys are pre-mature on your calls and will need time to prove yourselves because as of lately 2010 to now you’ve been primarily on the wrong side of the trades.
Comment by Andrew M — March 20, 2012 @ 10:59 am
Oh, of note, it would be worthwhile going back to oct/11 to how how BMR was saying not to buy into this rally off the low of 1308. They were instead suggesting to use double leveraged efts to the downside to protect oneself. Brilliant I might say. Pretty much for the whole rally upwards BMR was downbeat until the market peaked, then came the bullishness. BMR for curiosity sake, do u guys have a financial background or any credentials?
Comment by Moosey — March 20, 2012 @ 11:46 am
Its getting near stink bid time again. Another day or two of selling should provide some very nice entry points on some shares.
I reckon the Venture will likely take stock around the 1530-1550 region to preserve the uptrend started from Oct low last year. If this fails probably down to 1500, if that fails were screwed 🙂 Tho ones mans nightmare selloff is another’s opportunity. Id much rather buy at times like this, than when everyone is falling over themselves to bid stocks up.
Well done Andrew on predicting the top, was a very good call…I remember reading that and agreeing. This will probably be a normal retrace and will be due a bounce soon, as almost everyone seems to be turning bearish/frightened again, but Id still be wary of stocks who need to raise cash.
Comment by mark — March 20, 2012 @ 12:50 pm
WOW! A couple people had their corn flakes pissed in this morning! This is a free site, if you dont like how its run there are other sites you can use to accumulate your info. Hang in there BMR, there are some ppl here who appreciate all the hard work and time you guys purt into this site!
Comment by db — March 20, 2012 @ 4:35 pm
Would BMR like to comment on today’s news release from Greencastle V.VGN
Comment by sidevalvebob — March 20, 2012 @ 5:56 pm
I called the low on the tsx.v last year in May, and got riddiculed by some that I would only prove Jon wrong and how dare me. BUT, It hit my call. No pon intended on my part, we can be wrong and I have been wrong in the past too. I do wish that a more conservative and realistic approach was taken on this site. Just the other day, they were touting a 50 mil market cap on RBW was possible by the summer. That would put it over a buck. I have news for ya. There is no way this stock will be trading over a buck in the summer months. We are about 6 weeks away from the old “sell in May and go away”. They have not even started drilling yet and right now the market is not responding in a big way unless it is assays and good ones. I don’t have a crystal ball, but common sense rules better than the ball. It may move up on some news but the moves will most likely be conservative.
Comment by dave — March 20, 2012 @ 8:29 pm
dave
No it wont be a buck, that would be crazy imo. But it could very well be a 40-50 cents stock by summer. And the doldrums…I don’t think this will be an ordniary year after the sell off in 2011-2012. Much like after 2008, the venture did very well during summer 2009. The mining shares are soooo beaten down it’s ridiculous.
Looking forward to more info this week from RBW and the International that looks like being a heck of a property.
DYODD
Comment by Marky — March 21, 2012 @ 12:30 am
I do would like you opinions on what VGN are up to??
Comment by ac — March 21, 2012 @ 4:01 am
Glad you brought this up…..interesting news out yesterday regarding their Nechako Property and spinning it into Deveron which will apparently soon be listed on the Venture…..Roodenburg appears to be going to work…..Greencastle is trading right near cash value so it’s obviously a screaming buy……exactly when it takes off is anyone’s guess, though……if you’re a patient investor, and buy Greencastle at cash value, you can’t help but make money, and perhaps lots of it………that has been a winning strategy over the last several years….buy at cash value, sell on the run up….
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 21, 2012 @ 5:54 am