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March 15, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is steady so far today after yesterday’s big drop when stop-loss orders kicked in and helped drive the yellow metal to an eight-week low…as of 6:15 am Pacific, Gold is unchanged at $1,644…Silver up a dime to $32.25…Copper is up a penny at $3.84…Crude Oil is flat at $105.60 while the U.S. Dollar Index is down one-quarter of a point to at 80.36…

Our best advice is to take the drop in Gold in stride, and take advantage of the opportunities this has presented in the markets, as Gold’s primary uptrend remains firmly intact…in fact, as John’s chart showed yesterday, what seems to be forming in Gold is an inverted head and shoulders pattern…we just have to be patient and let that play itself out…it’s the same story with Silver as John shows in the chart below…the weakness we’ve seen in precious metals over the last couple of weeks is quite likely a set-up for a powerful move to the upside which could easily culminate in new highs later in the year…the action in the Venture Exchange, a leading indicator, confirms this view as the CDNX continues its recent trend of out-performance vs. Gold as well as the TSX Gold Index…

Some valuations on Gold stocks are getting to the point of being ridiculous…the TSX Gold Index has fallen below its rising 1000 day moving average (SMA) for the first time since early 2010…we remember that period well…markets work on fear and greed…those consumed by fear in early 2010 missed out on one of the best entry points for Gold stocks in a decade…over the next year we saw an incredible move in both the Gold Index and the Venture Exchange…this time is no different, folks…yes, Gold and Silver could both drop a little bit more but this sell-off has nearly run its course and six months from now people will be looking back at this period and wondering why they didn’t back up the truck and load up…

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX), one of our favorite small producers and a very profitable company, is an excellent example of how silly the market can be at times…Richmont, which earned 81 cents per share last year and should improve on that in 2012, fell for the 11th session out of 14 yesterday when it closed down 49 cents at $8.51…when you see Richmont trading at these levels, you know the market as a whole has either hit bottom or is very close to it…Richmont is very oversold on the daily chart…John has a weekly chart below that shows the absolute bottom on RIC is somewhere between $7.40 and $8.30…yesterday it got as low as $8.44…the stock has fallen below its 300-day SMA for the first time since very early last year, right before it more than doubled in value…folks, we are not flinching one bit with this sell-off in precious metals – in fact, this is the time to be more bullish than ever

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in RIC.

Today’s Markets

Stock index futures suggest a mildly positive open on Wall Street this morning…European markets are generally flat…Reuters is reporting that President Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron discussed the possibility of releasing emergency oil reserves during a meeting today, the first sign that Obama is starting to test global support for an effort to knock back near-record prices…Obama certainly has a political problem…his misguided moves with regard to the Keystone Pipeline Project – he was pandering to his radical environmental base – don’t square very well with most Americans who are feeling pinched by rising gas prices…Obama will say and do anything to claim the White House for another four years to continue his agenda of “re-shaping” America and jambing Big Government down everyone’s throats…so there should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that he is planning to intervene in the oil market in a “shock and awe” sort of way before the summer through the strategic reserves…

On the topic of oil, Iran’s production has fallen to a 10-year low and could drop to levels last seen during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s as sanctions over its nuclear program disrupt an industry already suffering from years of underinvestment…the country’s crude production fell by 50,000 barrels a day to 3.38m b/d in February according to the IEA (International Energy Agency)…the last time it was that low was in late 2002…Tehran’s oil output had already been in long-term decline as previous U.S. sanctions deterred foreign oil companies from investing, starving Iran of the technology needed to boost its flagging production…Obama talked tough today regarding Iran…“The window for solving this issue diplomatically is shrinking,” he said after talks with Cameron…“I’m determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon”…

Venture Exchange

The CDNX closed below 1600 yesterday, falling 33 points to 1594…this is still just a 6% drop from the February 29 high of 1696, a very normal mini-correction and less than the pullbacks in Gold and the TSX Gold Index…the Venture has support around current levels and we do expect a turnaround in the last half of the month…

A few quick notes…Cap-Ex Ventures (CEV, TSX-V) closed right at its rising 100-day SMA yesterday – it’s looking very good…Focus Metals (FMS, TSX-V) has closed a $10 million bought deal and its late February overbought condition has unwound…it closed at 95 cents yesterday…Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) continues to look exceptionally good as it bases in the mid-to-upper 20’s, the kind of technical action one normally sees immediately prior to a breakout…

29 Comments

  1. CEV – If anyone has had trouble contacting IR recently they are switching over the Investor Relations responsibilities and Rob Hopkins will be taking over as Manager of IR. Rob can be reached at: 416-861-5899 (DSO assays have not yet been completed).

    Comment by Andrew — March 15, 2012 @ 5:27 am

  2. BMR – Obama certainly has a political problem…his misguided moves
    with regard to the Keystone Pipeline Project

    Bert – How about sharing some of the blame with the pipeline group.
    They should have known they would be moving over sensitive grounds &
    should have planned their route differently. I say shame on them,
    willing to forget the environment for the sake of the almighty dollar.
    The pipeline will go ahead but do it right says me.

    Comment by Bert — March 15, 2012 @ 5:33 am

  3. CEV does have a shot at hitting the 80’s one more time, it may or may not. DSO will be its next mover. My advice to all the negatism on yesterday’s post is to buy strictly on the news releases. EKG, MDX, GTA etc.

    Fortunes are made this way. Just my opinion as I bought at the open on all 3.

    Comment by dave — March 15, 2012 @ 7:29 am

  4. Bought rgx yesterday at 60 cents insider bought 200000 at 63 cents .Seems very under valued.any thoughts

    Comment by gil — March 15, 2012 @ 8:01 am

  5. Dave you should look at MOM (i says pardon?) if youre looking for a med stock with potential…I was told RBW news this week but its looking like we might be delayed till next week like Jon mentioned yesterday. I cant see Friday news for the MMR, theyd want that out on a Thursday at worst. According to moose mtns website the work on “bravehearts” property is still in progress…dont know how often the update their projects…

    Comment by db — March 15, 2012 @ 8:25 am

  6. I have been watching MOM, but I am not comfortable with the management. I continue to stay on my program of trading off strong news releases. Gold NR not moving stocks that much right now. Oil is kinda hot. I am in EOG at $1.08

    Comment by dave — March 15, 2012 @ 9:23 am

  7. EOG is a monster in the making…March 8th NR states an est of 7+ billion barrels.

    Comment by db — March 15, 2012 @ 9:59 am

  8. Check out MKI.V. Sprott owns a few million.

    Comment by OldMan — March 15, 2012 @ 10:03 am

  9. Visible Gold Mines intersects 21.75 g/t of gold over 4.1 meters at Wasa Creek in Quebec

    Comment by Andrew — March 15, 2012 @ 10:41 am

  10. Rainbow news out!!

    Comment by Ed — March 15, 2012 @ 2:20 pm

  11. Gil & Andrew…

    Long time reader, first time poster….

    WHAT A GREAT DAY!!!!

    Gil, I averaged down on RGX yesterday and +.07 today!!!! This is a BIG time winner and we will do very well with many major NR’s coming our way!!!!

    Andrew, I’m an original holder of VGD and have always had confidence in the Managment team and the “new” Quebec properties…
    VGD has built a “Team” and people like AEM have confidence in them, so with the properties, people, and financing, this too is a keeper….

    Comment by don — March 15, 2012 @ 3:03 pm

  12. Six grab samples on the Viking property ranging from 66g/t to 489 g/t silver and a historically mined average grade on the Ottawa property of 2113 g/t. Yes thats right two thousand one hundred and thirteen grams per ton silver. Sorry i got excited……….

    Comment by Ed — March 15, 2012 @ 3:04 pm

  13. A newfie goes into the doctor’s office and said that his body hurt wherever he touched it.

    ‘Impossible!’ says the doctor.. ‘Show me.’

    As the Doctor watched closely, the newfie took his finger, pushed on his left shoulder and
    screamed, then he pushed his elbow and screamed even more. he pushed his knee and screamed;
    then he pushed his ankle and screamed. Everywhere he touched made him scream.

    The doctor said, ‘Your finger is broken.’

    Comment by Bert — March 15, 2012 @ 3:09 pm

  14. A policeman pulls over a Newfie in Ontario for speeding, while he’s writing out the ticket a fly was bothering the Cop, so the Newfie says, that’s a circle fly sir. The policeman asks, what’s a circle fly, Newfie says, them are the flies you find in the barn around a horses as-. The policeman says, you calling me a horses a-s, oh no sir, I would never say a thing like that, but you can’t fool them flies sir.

    Comment by Bert — March 15, 2012 @ 3:12 pm

  15. VGD

    The volume today indicated a lot of sellers just waiting to get out. For every seller
    there’s a buyer, but the buyers were only able to improve the price by 0.01.. The chart
    certainly looks good & once we rid ourselves of the grumps, we may see an improvement
    in the price. Also, the news was a bit late coming out, so we anxiously await tomorrow’s
    trading. R !

    Comment by Bert — March 15, 2012 @ 3:52 pm

  16. Ed those are great samples but wait till you see what international and our 2 new properties have in store for us!!

    Comment by db — March 15, 2012 @ 4:00 pm

  17. db….. smells like Dave aka CJC…. just sayin!!

    Comment by Jeremy — March 15, 2012 @ 4:08 pm

  18. Ouch! This aint no CJC Jer… We actually have a legit Mgt team at RBW and they dont leave their shareholders hanging for 3 months while the whole time they knew their results were crap…

    Comment by db — March 15, 2012 @ 4:11 pm

  19. RBW

    Grab samples, past producers, etc. etc. Will today’s sulky market really care,
    in particular, since it seems, that everything is being sold, including producers.

    Comment by Bert — March 15, 2012 @ 4:16 pm

  20. BERT-Try and be a bit more positive you’ll make alot more friends… I guess you havent been following HDA. A silver play IN BC near production. Up 10c this week after a huge pull back yesterday. It was actually up 30c at one point this week. Thats just one stock thats had a good week so far. Maybe its just you whos sulky… You sound somewhat educated you should know the process of this exploration plays, this is a typical start in NRs for a new company. PP, grab samples, airbornes, etc.

    Comment by db — March 15, 2012 @ 4:23 pm

  21. DB

    If i have to post in a positive manner for the sake of being positive, i will
    never have any friends. You have to take me as i am, that is trying to be
    truthful at all times. The market is sulky & it may not respond in a positive
    manner to RBW news, since it don’t respond to some drill results. I am
    disappointed that you would expect me to be other than what i am… As for
    being educated, i barely made it through grade 11 & that seems like a
    hundred years ago. Good luck with RBW & may i remind you, i have shares. R !

    Comment by Bert — March 15, 2012 @ 4:38 pm

  22. Sorry for getting a lil defensive, I just dont get what you were expecting. You ARE still a shareholder of RBW arent you? You shaould be happy they are expanding their land package and finding new targets on their properties…

    Comment by db — March 15, 2012 @ 4:39 pm

  23. The chart on RBW is one of the best on the venture and is primed to go higher. This is the beginning of the news that everyone has been waiting for. Should be a great last half of March and beyond. I dont think that even a poor overall market will hold this one back.

    Comment by Ed — March 15, 2012 @ 4:51 pm

  24. DB – Sorry for getting a lil defensive, I just dont get what you were expecting.
    You ARE still a shareholder of RBW arent you? You shaould be happy they are
    expanding their land package and finding new targets on their properties

    Bert – I wasn’t expecting any more or any less, all i was stating is the market may not
    respond to RBW in a positive manner, since it is not responding to some drill results .
    I am still a shareholder & i will wait for things to unfold. I will not comment further
    on this subject, but i will state, that i am not at all bothered by your comments, so
    relax & have a good night’s sleep. R !

    Comment by Bert — March 15, 2012 @ 4:56 pm

  25. Jon – are the grab samples really that significant (66g/t is a far cry from the historical 2000g/t and presumably one grab sample was insignificant)? I’m guessing surface samples are typically lower grade than deeper samples and therefore suggest much high values would be recovered from drilling?
    “Moose Mountain collected a total of six grab samples from adits in the central and southern parts of the property with five of these samples returning significant silver values ranging from 66 g/t (1.9 oz/ton) to 489 g/t (14.3 oz/ton).”
    Thanks, I’m not familiar with silver assays! 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — March 15, 2012 @ 5:22 pm

  26. Jon, Do you think VGD’s new discovery hole: DDH WC-12-01 is going to be a game changer for VGD this year, putting them back in play? The financing with Mineralfields is a concern for me. Anyway, at least there is some fuel to possibly ignite the Venture.

    Comment by Andrew — March 15, 2012 @ 5:30 pm

  27. Andrew, first, the grab samples are from Gold Viking – not Ottawa……Ottawa was mined at an average grade of over 2,000 g/t……….there are a few historical adits at Gold Viking – some artisanal mining, and in fact during my DD last fall I went into one of the adits – 450 feet in length……saw silver and gold (pyrite, chalcopyrite, massive galena, sphalerite)…..I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on any grab samples from any company’s property, but they do confirm there is high-grade there….

    What’s most significant regarding Gold Viking is the fact the airborne geophysics match up EXACTLY to the soil sampling anomalies – that’s really nice to see, shows they are possibly on to something…….plus there are conductors to the north and south…….very positive……..the other very significant fact is the possible connection between the two properties, Gold Viking and Ottawa……I hope RBW has been negotiating for additional ground held by other owners around the area……..technical report suggests Gold Viking and Ottawa could be one large intrusive body…………the mined grades at Ottawa are nothing short of phenomenal……61.6 ounces, imagine!!!……you combine this with the International Property and the rest, and you have a major whopper of a story here that has a LOT of legs…..

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 15, 2012 @ 5:31 pm

  28. I do like the Wasamac area very much……….VGD’s management concerns me, though….lost some faith in Dallaire last fall………he has some good geologists but Dallaire is not good at communicating with the market or understanding the market……that’s where the RBW team is far superior…….I do hope VGD hits at Wasa Creek or Wasa East, there is that chance…..nice properties………

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 15, 2012 @ 5:36 pm

  29. Jon – thank you for your quick responses, much appreciated. Have a good evening. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — March 15, 2012 @ 5:48 pm

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