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October 27, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,705 and $1,734 so far today…as of 8:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $4 an ounce at $1,729…Silver is $1.03 higher at $34.41…Copper is up 16 cents at $3.66…Crude Oil has jumped nearly $3 a barrel to $92.84 while the U.S. Dollar Index is down more than a full point at 75.16…

Investors are celebrating the fact that European leaders were able to agree on a plan, announced early this morning, aimed at rescuing the region from the sovereign-debt crisis that has been dragging on for well over a year…how this all plays out in the coming weeks and months remains to be seen as the problems have not been solved overnight and big questions remain…the three main pieces of the package would beef up the euro zone’s bailout fund, force the region’s banks to shore up their capital to the tune of 106 billion euros, and see the private holders of Greek debt voluntarily take a 50% hit, with the euro zone kicking in $30 billion euros to help out…

Markets have also been helped today by more encouraging U.S. economic signs…GDP increased at its fastest in a year in the third quarter (2.5%) as consumers and businesses set aside fears about the recovery and stepped up spending, creating momentum that could carry into the final three months of the year…at the same time, slightly fewer people sought unemployment benefits last week, though the level remains elevated above 400,000…

The Dow is up over 200 points, stretching this month’s gains to a whopping 11%, while the TSX has also climbed more than 200 points for a more modest but nonetheless impressive 7% increase for the month…the CDNX, meanwhile, has gained 27 points to 1598 but faces a major band of resistance between 1600 and 1700 that is unlikely to be overcome anytime soon…so there is no need in our view to be chasing any stocks on the fear of “missing out” on a major upside move…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) came out with positive news yesterday regarding its Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…the discovery of significant Gold-Copper-Silver showings 1.2 km northwest of the former L.C. Beliveau Gold mine shaft, and 120 to 150 metres northwest of the previously discovered Highway showing, underscores the potential of a much broader mineralized system than what Cambior originally mined between 1989 and 1993 (167,000 ounces)…given the drill results to date, plus this new information, AGE is well on its way to outlining a deposit at Pascalis that could be big enough (several hundred thousand ounces or more) to attract the attention of a company like Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) whose operating Beaufor Mine is immediately adjacent to the Pascalis Property…we’ll have more on this in the coming days…in the meantime, John updates the AGE chart which is hinting of some potential bullishness…

23 Comments

  1. I see several properties joining VGN, SQI and PPV are making headways with their properties, what the hell is Mr Roodenburg waiting for? Perhaps he is sitting back and waiting for these other companies to ‘unlock’ the value of his land package??

    Comment by Hugh — October 27, 2011 @ 7:10 am

  2. Sorry I meant PPP.V

    Comment by Hugh — October 27, 2011 @ 7:14 am

  3. Announcement… ‘Portex Minerals Inc. Announces Memorandum of Understanding to Acquire GoldQuest Mining Corp.’s Base Metal Properties in North West Spain’ … What are BMR thoughts on GoldQuest latest announcemenmts. Your comments and views are always appreciated.
    Regards

    Comment by Paul — October 27, 2011 @ 7:36 am

  4. I wish bullmarket was a little more positive for the Venture….Remember, we faced heavy resistance at 1470, went thru it, faced heavy reistance at 1530 and went thru it. Time to get a ‘little’ more positive as the bigger markets move will translate to bigger speculation plays taking off sooner too!

    Comment by STEVEN — October 27, 2011 @ 7:36 am

  5. Thanks for the comments on AGE, Jon and for the chart update, John. I have my AGE holdings tucked away. I’m considering adding to them by switching from VGD. Although Martin Dallaire did say that assays would be released as soon as available I think it would be reasonable to assume that due to the length of time since the first hole assay that the results are being withheld? Presumably Cadillac Mining would have access to these results but they continue to fail to act on their Cadillac land package. Would it be a reasonable assumption that the lack of any follow up drill results from VGD is a sign to be cautious? I realise that Joutel was the exciting prospect but that changed with the single hole result from Wasa Creek and if the additional holes were insignificant (hard to believe but perfectly possible) the share value of VGD could drop very quickly in the current market.

    Comment by Andrew — October 27, 2011 @ 7:40 am

  6. BMR – so there is no need in our view to be chasing any stocks on the fear of “missing out” on a major upside move…

    Bert – With all due respect, i just can’t agree with the above noted sentence.
    Because the Venture is up close to 30 pts., would indicate there are many movers
    out there. Make my day Venture & close above 1600. R !

    Comment by Bert — October 27, 2011 @ 7:44 am

  7. CAN at a new 52 week low – isn’t that worthwhile accumulating (it’s not chasing because it’s going downhill 🙂 )?

    Comment by Andrew — October 27, 2011 @ 8:55 am

  8. Bert, we need to see more volume before we can get too excited, but I got a good feeling the PMs are on the verge of a major breakout and for once the big miners are following suit, just look at EGO flex its muscles!

    Comment by Hugh — October 27, 2011 @ 9:27 am

  9. Hugh, do you mean Eldorado Gold Corp:US?

    Comment by Andrew — October 27, 2011 @ 9:32 am

  10. @Andrew – yes!

    Comment by Hugh — October 27, 2011 @ 9:58 am

  11. Bert
    Look at the weekly chart.

    The Daily and Weekly SMA(50) are pointing down.

    The ADX is bearish.

    The Trend is DOWN.

    One day’s trading does not a trend make and the TREND is your friend.

    CDNX must get thru’ more resis. before we can say it is bullish, what we are seeing here could be a rally. Let the CDNX prove itself before coming to conclusions. Be Patient.

    The Gold producers are directly connected to the price of Gold……they went up.

    The Gold explorers +RISK are are directly connected to the price of Gold…. they did not go up…..wonder why?

    Nuff said.

    Comment by John - BMR — October 27, 2011 @ 1:25 pm

  12. I got a response from Roger in GBB, which says he did not want to release any negative news regarding the delay of the 43-101 into the market which makes sense I guess. He said Frank would be on-site next week to discuss the progress with Genivar. He then went on to say that:

    “Everyone at the company believes that the funamentals are sound. Our long
    term objectives have not changed, since we have only concluded about 10%
    of the drilling required to take Granada to it’s full potential. We hope
    to achieve this with minimal or no future share dilution.”

    This type of responsive attention to shareholders fills me with confidence. As I said earlier its all patience with this one, I think in the long run we will be rewarded.

    Comment by Hugh — October 28, 2011 @ 1:09 am

  13. Thanks Hugh about the information from GBB. Still, I sold my shares in GBB yesterday, and booked a loss of 30%. We will see.

    Comment by Alexandre — October 28, 2011 @ 1:16 am

  14. Do you mind me asking why you sold?

    Comment by Hugh — October 28, 2011 @ 3:23 am

  15. Can anyone spare a dime?
    What does this mean?

    VGD
    Insider Sells Transaction Currency
    10/27/2011 VGD
    0 500 0.00 127.50 0 1 CAD

    mar

    Comment by Mar — October 28, 2011 @ 4:47 am

  16. Hugh, there are many reasons, in random order;
    1.I am 54, risk tolerance is decreasing.
    2. GBB management is moving too cautiously.
    3. GBB has a down trend.
    4. At the same time I purchased GBB, I got VGD(down 40%) and TWD(up 40%)
    5. I think it will drift down, and there will another occasion to buy into it at a cheaper price.
    6. I have owned RIC and Louvem for years, and I like that gold region.
    7. I think that VGD has a greater potential for a big find.
    I hope it is to your satisfaction.

    Comment by Alexandre — October 28, 2011 @ 4:55 am

  17. Hello Mar, If you space the figures it reads that there was a single sell transaction of 500 shares for a sell value of $127.50 and no insider buys. Therefore the sell price was .255

    Comment by Andrew — October 28, 2011 @ 5:33 am

  18. Hi Alexandre – Thanks for the reply. I agree GBB could drift down on no news but I think the story is still intact. I am down 40% so feel married in for the ride now 🙂 happy to wait it out.

    Best of luck

    Comment by Hugh — October 28, 2011 @ 5:40 am

  19. Jon and John – blunt but direct question: are you still holding VGD? I am but concerned that they may be withholding disappointing news after stating that they would release results as soon as available.

    Comment by Andrew — October 28, 2011 @ 6:00 am

  20. Yes….I am still holding VGD, and will continue to hold it.

    Comment by John - BMR — October 28, 2011 @ 6:29 am

  21. Thanks John for your direct answer! I hope Jon and his mum are doing okay. Take care.

    Comment by Andrew — October 28, 2011 @ 6:32 am

  22. BMR
    I see a few signs of optimism that I would like you to correct me on if I am wrong.
    – CDNX has been rising since beginning of Oct. Bottomed at 1305. The CMF has been rising since then and has broken into positive territory on Oct.17-18…I know we are a ways off from 200ma (2014) but we are getting very close to crossing over the 50ma (1638).

    – S&PTSX/60 has broken 50ma and rising and CMF on a tear

    – VIXC Volatility Index is looking very bullish

    Would appreciate your feedback.Thanks

    Comment by D — October 28, 2011 @ 7:18 am

  23. Hi D
    I will present a CDNX Chart Update over the weekend.

    Comment by John - BMR — October 28, 2011 @ 7:48 am

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