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July 22, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is powering higher today…as of 8:55 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $15 an ounce at $1,605…Silver has gained 81 cents to $40.13, Crude Oil is up 33 cents to $99.46 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up nearly one-fifth of a point at 74.20…Copper has gained a penny at $4.37 a pound…after weeks of uncertainty that revived fears about the foundations of the euro, European leaders yesterday clinched a new rescue plan for Greece that could push the country into default on some of its debt for a short period but would also give Europe’s bailout fund sweeping new powers to shore up struggling economies…Greece (and the perilous debt situation with some other countries in the euro zone) is a big problem that’s not going away anytime soon, however, which is bullish for Gold…Morgan Stanley stated, “Our estimates suggest that Greek debt/GDP ratios will fall around 25 percentage points over five years as a result of these measures but will still be a whopping 120 per cent in 2016 even assuming that the full €50-billion of privatization measures are implemented…we therefore believe that (bond) spreads will widen again as short covering dissipates and reality sinks in”…sobering words from analysts at Morgan Stanley…as far as the U.S. is concerned, it’s likely the Americans will avoid a default with a creative agreement to raise the debt ceiling or some sort of patchwork deficit/debt reduction plan but the bottom line is that given political dynamics in Washington, it seems highly unlikely the U.S. will have a credible plan to attack its debt woes until after the 2012 elections…amazingly, since 2007, the U.S. deficit has swelled from $161 billion to about $1.6 trillion as this money-sucking monster was allowed to get out of control…the problem has been many years in the making, however, thanks to an overall lack of fiscal discipline in Washington and a growing role for government that’s just not realistic…elect a president who believes government is the answer to everything and then you have an even worse problem on your hands…the CDNX enjoyed its biggest volume day in over two months yesterday and what this market is telling us right now is that August and September are likely going to be very robust as we have been predicting…historically, 30% moves in the Index within just a few months after the end of a major correction are not uncommon…the CDNX bottomed out at 1862 June 28, so a run to 2400 by the end of September can’t be ruled out…the Index is another 13 points higher this morning at 2052…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) is  breaking through resistance at its 100-day moving average (SMA)…John’s 1-year weekly VGD chart that was posted July 7 when this stock was trading at 24 cents gave us plenty of reason for optimism and we have not been disappointed…VGD is up another penny-and-a-half at 32.5 cents after news yesterday that three drill rigs are now on its Wasa Creek Property adjacent to Richmont’s Wasamac Property 15 kilometres west of Rouyn-Noranda…a push through resistance at 32 cents is technically significant…as regular readers know, we are very bullish on the entire Wasamac area for its Gold as well as base metal potential…the fact VGD has put three rigs at Wasa Creek raises speculation they may believe they are onto something based on initial holes drilled to date…this is an aggressive company with a top-notch geological staff drilling 40,000 metres this year in one of the best areas in the world to search for a deposit – hence we are extremely excited with the possibilities for VGD…the company will also soon be drilling its Joutel Project about 150 kilometres to the north of Rouyn-Noranda…there are five significant former deposits (three Gold, two Copper) in the immediate area where VGD will be drilling at Joutel, so they will be exploring in a prolific geological environment…VGD’s 50-day SMA is now reversing to the upside after being in decline since the beginning of the year, so right now is a “sweet spot” entry point…Richmont (RIC, TSX) is roaring this morning – it’s up 32 cents at $8.16 but the market has still not woken yet to this company’s growing production profile, its robust earnings, and developments at Wasamac which is shaping up to be a company-changing major find for RIC…we suggest readers who haven’t yet performed due diligence on Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V) do so as quickly as possible…Probe came out with more stellar results yesterday from its Borden Lake Gold Property near Timmins plus new information that an initial 43-101 resource estimate for Borden will be completed as early as the end of next month…from a technical standpoint, Probe is looking very bullish as John outlines below in a 1-year weekly chart…PRB got as high as $1.74 in early trading today but has since backed off to $1.61…

Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) continues to be under accumulation as its drill program in Tanzania progresses…technically, CUI’s 100-day moving average (SMA) has started to reverse to the upside and that’s a bullish signal for sure…CUI has the potential to accelerate rapidly on a breakout through resistance between 22 and 23 cents…it’s currently off a penny at 19.5 cents…Silver Quest Resources (SQI, TSX-V) is up a nickel to $1.12…check out the Slow Stochastics and RSI(14) on SQI – it appears ready to run…keep a close eye also on Golden Predator (GPD, TSX-V) which is up 6 pennies at $1.07…Galway Resources (GWY, TSX-V), after a huge volume day yesterday following release of assay results from its California Gold-Silver Project in Colombia, is up another 9 cents this morning to $1.09…the stock has broken above its 100 and 200-day day SMA’s and appears to have momentum on its side, so it will be interesting to watch but we wouldn’t suggest chasing it…also in Colombia we see a good opportunity in Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) at the moment as it trades in the upper 20’s…Spanish Mountain Gold (SPA, TSX-V), which just recently raised $20 million, is up a penny at 66 cents this morning…

5 Comments

  1. STOCK ALERT NKL UP 20percnt today OVER 5.00 was .70 cents a few days ago.WHEN IS THE MUSIC GOING TO STOP ANY OPINIONS

    Comment by gil — July 22, 2011 @ 8:46 am

  2. BMR – Can you review Smash Minerals and provide your comments. Company owns 856 sq km. Same management from Underwould Resources that to me is looking to do another flip on the company. 3000m drill program for this fall and massive drill program to follow next year. Current market cap 17million.

    This is probably the best opportunity out there for gold prospects next to VGD. Better opportunity than RYG, ECC, GPD that are in the area. Sprott and Dynamic Funds own a significant portion.

    Here’s a link to a review of the company.

    http://stockgroup.stockgroup.com/baimg/img/smash/Smash_Minerals_Reprint_June_2011-2.pdf

    Comment by Andrew M — July 22, 2011 @ 9:18 am

  3. smash is the best Yukon play. Forget NKL, look at BER

    Comment by david — July 22, 2011 @ 9:24 am

  4. Thanks for bringing Smash Minerals to our attention Andrew and now,David, we know your Yukon pick 🙂 I’ll check it out. Almost got into BER this morning but it was running too fast. A new stock to me and I can’t read rare earth results.

    Comment by Andrew — July 22, 2011 @ 9:32 am

  5. Well another day, and an inch closer to the ,235 resistance that I mentioned a few days ago for VGN.. Hit .22 today, not too many shares available for sale, .235 should be taken out early next week, just before the news on the 2 Viking oil pool wells are to be released then….

    Comment by john — July 22, 2011 @ 1:12 pm

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