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July 15, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

This is an early pre-market version of BMR’s Morning Market Musings as Jon is on a special research assignment today…Gold overnight (through 3:00 am Pacific) has dipped as low as $1,575…a Reuters poll yesterday showed some leading analysts are lifting their 2012 Gold price forecasts…Central banks have bought more Gold in the first half of this year than in all of 2010 as a long-anticipated reversal in so-called “official sector” sales gathers pace, according to a report just issued by the World Gold Council…the CDNX climbed a few points above 2000 yesterday before being pushed back to 1990, just slightly above its 50-day moving average (SMA) which appears poised to reverse to the upside within the next week or two…that of course would be another bullish technical development for this market…in case you missed it, Republican representative Ron Paul and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had a short but fascinating discussion regarding Gold and what qualifies as money during a congressional hearing in D.C. Wednesday…“Do you think Gold is money?” asked Paul, the libertarian-leaning presidential candidate, to which Bernanke, obviously a bit bewildered, replied, “No…it’s not money, it’s a precious metal”…Paul refused to let up and asked Bernanke why, if people for 6,000 years have considered gold a monetary commodity and banks still hold it as if it is money, the Chairman can say that Gold is not money…Bernanke had no choice but to cite “tradition”…

MR. PAUL: But very quickly, if you could answer another question, because I’m curious about this – you know, the price of Gold today is $1,580…the dollar during these last three years was devalued almost 50%…when you wake up in the morning, do you care about the price of Gold?…

MR. BERNANKE: Well, I pay attention to the price of Gold, but I think it reflects a lot of things…it reflects global uncertainties…I think people are – the reason people hold Gold is as a protection against what we call tail risk, really, really bad outcomes…and to the extent that the last few years have made people more worried about potential of a major crisis, then they have Gold as a protection…

MR. PAUL: Do you think Gold is money?

(Pause.)

MR. BERNANKE: No…it’s not money, it’s a precious metal…

MR. PAUL: Even if it has been money for 6,000 years, somebody reversed that and eliminated that economic law?…

MR. BERNANKE: Well, it’s – you know, it’s an asset…I mean, it’s the same – would you say Treasury bills are money?…I don’t think they’re money either, but they’re a financial asset…

MR. PAUL: Well, why do – why do – why do central banks hold it if it’s not…

MR. BERNANKE: Well, it’s a form of reserves…it’s a form…

MR. PAUL: Why don’t they hold diamonds?

MR. BERNANKE: Well, it’s tradition, long-term tradition…

MR. PAUL: (Chuckles)…Well, some people still think it’s money…I yield back…my time is up…

Ron Paul could have grilled Bernanke even more and asked him if he didn’t think Gold was money, then why are Gold and Silver once again considered legal tender in at least one part of the United States – Utah…the state last spring passed the “Utah Legal Tender Act” which “recognizes Gold and Silver coins that are issued by the federal government as legal tender in the state and exempts the exchange of the coins from certain types of state tax liability”…the law, signed by Governor Gary Herbert on March 25, does not obligate individuals to pay or accept payment in precious metals, but rather provides an alternative to the fiat-based Federal Reserve note that central bankers have been recklessly creating out of thin air in unprecedented proportions in recent years…the Utah Legal Tender Act also eliminates state taxes on the exchange of Gold and silver coins, and instructs the legislature to study an “alternative form of legal tender”…the most significant change from a practical perspective is that the Utah’s state tax code now considers Gold and silver coins issued by the U.S. Mint as currency rather than an asset, which means that capital gains or other state taxes cannot be levied when the coins are exchanged…however, federal taxes still apply on these transactions…

John has two interesting charts this morning – Pacific Ridge Exploration (PEX, TSX-V), which is exploring in the Yukon, and Goldex Resources Corp. (GDX, TSX-V) which was the Venture’s volume leader yesterday…Pacific Ridge, which had $4.5 million in working capital at the end of March, is in the midst of a 4,000 metre drill program at its Mariposa Property in the White Gold District…the program is testing the Skookum Jim and Hackly zones, two of five gold-in-soils geochemical anomalies defined last year within the 262-square-kilometre property…PEX closed at 37.5 cents yesterday and is certainly worthy of our readers’ due diligence…

Goldex is exploring its promising El Pato Gold Property in Guatemala and a 5,000-metre drill program was launched in May in order to confirm significant historical inferences and determine whether there is a continuation of mineralization extending along strike as far as the El Sauce sector where high-grade Gold mineralization has been shown…we’ve actually been watching this stock closely since it broke out at the beginning of the year…the company raised over $2 million in January from a 5-cent private placement which became free trading in early June…the market has been digesting some of that stock since then and volume is obviously the key…GDX definitely has liquidity and record volumes have come into the stock this year which is a very positive sign…GDX closed at 7.5 cents yesterday, giving the company a market cap of approximately $7.2 million which certainly provides for some upside potential…we like the fact there has been considerable historical work conducted at El Pato with very encouraging results…the company also holds a 3,400 hectare property, El Arco, in Mexico’s Central Plateau Gold-Silver belt…

Note: Jon, John and Terry do not hold positions in Pacific Ridge Exploration…Jon and John each hold a position in Goldex Resources

6 Comments

  1. Bought GDX a couple of days ago. Very good interview on Dominic Frisby’s internet chat show frisbysbullsandbears.com with the company. Great prospect heading into the strong season for juniors.

    Comment by Patrick — July 15, 2011 @ 7:18 am

  2. Thanks for posting the link, Patrick.

    Comment by Andrew — July 15, 2011 @ 10:18 am

  3. check out nkl bought at 1.96 today

    Comment by gil — July 15, 2011 @ 11:49 am

  4. Im looking forward to BMR’s Weekend Update segmaent on VGN to look for ant NEW developments that BMR may have found out about. After personally speaking with a few people at the company, I really think that VGN is about to spring some very good news on share holders, very, very soon. The upward movement in share price, albeit on very low volume is quite telling, perhaps a ” few in the know ” are buying up small blocks to increase their position, without causing a buying frenzy, in anticipation of the great news that is about to released. If one goes back to December 2010, they very same movement is share price occured. Tony once personally told me that his stocks/companies will RUN twice a year, and we have YET to see that this year. Also of most importance, IF any investors actually took the time to read the MD & A they would CLEARLY see that VGN NO LONGER holds it’s cash hoard in GIC’s, as they used to, the cash NOW sits in an interest bearing savings account, should the need arise that they quickly need to have access to it.I firmly believe that there WILL BE an acquisition of an ” ADVANCED STAGED GOLD PROPERTY, somewhere in the Americas” That is FULLY PERMITTED with PROVEN OUNCES in the ground in the very NEAR future.

    Comment by john — July 16, 2011 @ 7:31 am

  5. Hi John and my other fellows:
    After your previous forceful comments, I did speak to Tony (CFO of VGN) who had mentioned to me that they are expecting result for VGN in two weeks time and not now.
    Keep in mind that not necessary result would be positive but we are keeping our fingers cross.He also mentioned that drilling program for SFF is in progress and we should get the news any time.
    Regards

    Comment by Eric Benson — July 16, 2011 @ 2:56 pm

  6. I see Pacific Ridge Exploration (PEX.V) closed above the upsloping channel you placed on the chart. Any idea what that means technically in terms of a break-out? Thanks.

    Comment by Michael — July 18, 2011 @ 8:28 pm

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