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April 13, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

After dropping as low as $1,443 yesterday, Gold is firmer today on bargain hunting…as of 8:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $5 an ounce at $1,459…Silver remains above $40 at $40.64, a 53-cent increase over yesterday…crude oil, after getting smacked hard the last couple of days on a seemingly strange sell recommendation from Goldman Sachs, has climbed 94 cents to $107.19…the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 74.83…Following Goldman Sachs’ negative call on crude prices which took the wind out of the commodities’ rally Monday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch is predicting a 30% chance that Brent crude could hit $160 a barrel in 2011…“Commodity prices should move broadly higher in 2011 on robust economic growth in emerging markets, despite relatively weaker growth in developed markets,” said Sabine Schels, a commodity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London in a research note…sales at U.S. retailers rose slightly less than expected in March as rising gasoline prices pulled spending away from other segments and receipts from auto dealerships fell, a government report shows this morning, pointing to slower U.S. consumer spending in the first quarter…total retail sales increased 0.4 percent, a ninth straight month of gains, the Commerce Department said today…March’s reading was the weakest since June when sales fell 0.3 percent…the U.S. lacks a “credible strategy” to stabilize its mounting public debt, posing a small but significant risk of a new global economic crisis, says the International Monetary Fund…in an unusually stern rebuke to its largest shareholder, the IMF said the U.S. was the only advanced economy to be increasing its underlying budget deficit in 2011 at a time when its economy was growing fast enough to reduce borrowing…to meet the 2010 pledge by the Group of 20 countries for all advanced economies – except Japan – to halve their deficits by 2013, the U.S. would need to implement tougher austerity measures than in any two-year period since records began in 1960, the IMF said…expect House Republicans to keep President Obama’s feet to the fire regarding the debt ceiling, the deficit and the debt as these issues begin to really start coming into the spotlight…the CDNX is trying to bounce back after two very weak days…the Index dropped 85 points Monday and yesterday after touching nearly 2400 right after the opening bell Monday…the 20-day moving average (SMA), which just recently reversed to the upside which is a bullish development, is providing technical support at the 2300 level…this market has shown tremendous resiliency over the past month and with Gold remaining in an uptrend we continue to be optimistic as the last half of April approaches…as of 8:30 am Pacific, the CDNX is ahead 16 points to 2320…Everton Resources (EVR, TSX-V) hit a new 52-week high of 44 cents this morning after the company released results from 16 holes from the La Lechoza prospect at its APV Property adjacent to the Barrick-Goldcorp Pueblo Viejo deposit…hole #30 was impressive with a near-surface intersection of 10.50 metres (12.50 to 23 metres depth) grading 2.29 g/t Au, 65 g/t Ag, 0.64% Cu and 3.43% zinc…assay results are still pending for most of that hole (30.50 metres to 147.50 metres)…the deep drilling program at APV designed to test the theory of deep mineralization covered by a barren silica lithocap started three weeks ago…plenty of potential at this property for Everton with much work ahead…the stock has consistently run into resistance around the 40-cent level…we believe it’s just a matter of time before that is overcome…EVR has pulled back from its high this morning and is currently up 2.5 cents at 40 cents on volume of nearly 600,000 shares…patient investors have an excellent opportunity with that play in our view…the same applies with GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) which has yet to release initial assays from drilling at its highly prospective La Escandalosa Project in the DR…we’re confident that project will deliver…GQC has been trading in the low 30’s recently, several pennies above its rising 300-day SMA which provides excellent support…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is up three pennies to 53 cents after a successful test of the 50-cent level in yesterday’s market weakness…GBB’s announced planned spin-off of its Castle Silver Mine Property is a very positive development…Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V), which we’ve mentioned quite frequently over the past month, staged a powerful intra-day reversal yesterday as it hit of low of $3.35 (strong support area) during the market “panic” and then rallied to close at $3.69…that was an 11-cent loss for the day but the turnaround was impressive and bullish from a technical standpoint…GCU is currently off 3 pennies at $3.66…the stock hit an all-time high of $4.22 last week…the 20% correction was normal corrective action in an ongoing overall uptrend that could take GCU much higher considering the 5+ million ounce potential of its Springpole Project, 110 kilometres northeast of the Red Lake mining camp…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) is off half a penny at 39 cents…mark our words – VGD is going to become one of the most exciting exploration plays in northwest Quebec this year…it is guided by strong management and an astute geological team led by Robert Sansfacon who played a key role in the discovery of Osisko’s (OSK, TSX) Canadian Malartic deposit…with $8 million in cash and over 20,000 hectares of land already under its control (drill programs at two properties are in progress), Visible Gold Mines is well positioned to make a significant discovery…we expect this aggressive company to pull the trigger on additional land acquisitions as well…White Tiger Mining (WTC, TSX-V) is quiet this morning, unchanged at 80 cents…the stock has strong technical support around the 70-cent level as demonstrated yesterday when it recovered after falling as low as 71 cents…if assay results turn out to be outstanding for holes RMZ-21 and RMZ-23, it still won’t be too late to get in on the party with this one…in the near future we’ll start to explore in more detail the opportunities we see in the exciting Blackwater Gold District where Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V) has a major deposit on its hands with a buyout offer as well from New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX)…it’s our intention to make a trip to the Blackwater area by early June…investors interested in holding a producer should do some serious due diligence on New Gold which is putting out very impressive numbers these days that are exceeding many analysts’ expectations…

11 Comments

  1. I have been following VGN for quite some time now, long before it was recommended here. With RVC continuing to show great results from drill holes, and their expected take over soon, do you think, and is it reasonable to believe, with RVC and VGN having the same Investor Relations firm, Douglas McKay and associates, that some of thier BIG monied clients could soon be placing their money in VGN?? I have read and re-read VGN’s most recent MD&A and I find almost nothing to indicate that they are planning anything near term to inhance share holder value, ie, Drill their Nechako property, J-V or drill their ” promising” Nevada gold properties, or as stated previously by management, tho Acquire ” and advanced stage gold property, somewhere in the Americas”, does BMR have an opinion on WHEN or IF VGN will follow through with ANY of these properties? Also of note, it was BMR who stated ” that you do not hire an Invetor Relations firm such as Douglas McKay and Associates, if you have nothing BIG to announce”. So, what is it exactly that is SO BIG of an announcement that VGN would hire such a company? Thanks for your time, and I hope you can respond to these questions, as I have asked a few VGN related questions the past few days, and seeing no responses, I thought, perhaps you may be avoiding the VGN subject?
    John.

    Comment by john — April 13, 2011 @ 11:55 am

  2. Hi John, I really do believe that VGN is going to enjoy a great year considering this company’s balance sheet and its properties. I love the fact they’re well positioned in the Blackwater area – there’s a decent chance more discoveries will be made in the district and we’ll be focusing a lot on this very promising region over the next several months which will include a visit hopefully by early June…we have stated on many occasions that patience is required with Greencastle…….Roodenburg is determined to make something happen and I’m certain he will….but one must be patient….patient shareholders who have accumulated stock in this company during periods of weakness have consistently been rewarded…..take a look at the long-term chart…….balance sheet is very strong, three very good gold properties and monthly cash flow from oil royalty….the possibility of another acquisition……I don’t know when but I’m certain Roodeburg will pull the trigger and unlock the value of the Gold assets…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 13, 2011 @ 12:11 pm

  3. Jon,

    I am a holder of VGN, waiting for news is frustrating but I am confident that Roodenburg will deliver. Nechako is right in the centre of what is heating up to be a big area play. I would like to see Roodenburg unlock this property to get the ball rolling, the lack of news following the overhead survery is annoying.

    Comment by Herb — April 14, 2011 @ 1:17 am

  4. You guys are kidding yourselves if you actually think something will happen with VGN. I have owed these guys since the whole GXS rage machine and let me tell you how a long-term holder has been rewarded: O gain! The management of the company seems to show no interest in building shareholder value, its as if they themselves do not own any shares. From investors point of view the company looks good, the balance sheet is great and the story is wonderful. BUT the stock is useless. You can be sitting here next year talking about the same story and the same excuses while others are making money, their will be no acquisition as the company is very diligent and cheap and they will tell the story that “the asking prices for these properties was just too high”. Think for yourself, these guys don’t need to go out and make acquisitions, they have their own lands that they haven’t even drilled out yet.

    Comment by Yuri — April 14, 2011 @ 5:52 am

  5. I can empathise with Yuri – Tony Roodenburg doesn’t have a brilliant track record. SFF still has not released it’s revised resource estimate for Miraflores promised in the Conference Call on 15th February with a time frame of 2 – 4 weeks. They have only just mobilised the second drill – 2 drills for Quinchia – how serious are they? The “spectacular” results last December was great for the insiders, they made a lot of money and it was not really an honest news release. I’m out of SFF and I don’t see the point of holding VGN it’s just dead money. There are more aggressive explorations companies that offer better potential. For the Blackwater area it’s pointless holding VGN when they don’t actually do anything. TYE would seem to me to be a much better investment, if played correctly it offers frequent gains.

    Comment by Andrew — April 14, 2011 @ 6:39 am

  6. Yuri/Andrew

    Right on my cyber friends, maybe we should try to find a way of relieving him of his duties. He’s sitting
    pretty & not worrying about the company’s shareholders, because of the revenue from the oil play. Kick him
    out of say.

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by Bert — April 14, 2011 @ 7:18 am

  7. BMR what’s up with Visible Gold, looks like the support at 40 has broken pretty good and has the 50 day up trend now reversed as well? of course this is par for the course, you want your stocks to go down, just let me buy them and you are guaranteed.
    thx greg

    Comment by GREG H — April 14, 2011 @ 7:34 am

  8. Hell Greg, that’s how it goes with me too! Please can you buy some AGE and TYE so I can purchase on the way down? Thanks 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — April 14, 2011 @ 7:53 am

  9. Nothing wrong here at all, Greg, though I’m surprised by the weakness as there’s no reason for it….there was very good support at 40 cents but it’s also in a zone of strong support now…I added to my position the other day at 41 cents and it’s very tempting to jump in again at current levels…the 50-day is beginning to rise slightly…be patient, this one is going to do extremely well IMHO…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 14, 2011 @ 7:53 am

  10. Andrew,lol

    Comment by GREG H — April 14, 2011 @ 8:22 am

  11. Jon
    thx I bought a few days too early again is all! have to get some more if it keeps going down, my motto lately is average down, finally got to even with GBB, lol

    thx greg

    Comment by GREG H — April 14, 2011 @ 8:24 am

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