It has been a volatile day for Gold and a terrible day so far for stocks…the yellow metal dropped as low as $1,477 this morning but quickly reversed to the upside and hit a new record high of $1,499 after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the long-term debt outlook for the United States to negative, saying it believes there’s a risk U.S. policymakers may not reach agreement on how to address the country’s fiscal pressures…Gold has lost its gains, however, and as of 7:40 am Pacific the yellow metal is unchanged at $1,486…Silver has fallen 57 cents to $42.48 while the U.S. Dollar Index has strengthened half a point to to 75.41… the Dow and TSX are both sharply lower along with the Venture Exchange which is currently off 58 points at 2233…the CDNX has done an about-face after rallying from the 2050 low in early March to 2399 a week ago today…John takes a detailed look at the technical situation now with the CDNX based on Friday’s close below 2300…
John: On Friday the CDNX opened at 2299, rose to a high of 2304 and then fell to a low of 2290 before closing at 2291 for a loss of 10.13 points (-0.44%) on volume of 312 million shares. This was the fifth consecutive daily loss, thus the Index fell 98 points (-4.1%) on the week. And there’s significant weakness again this morning.
Looking at the chart the first thing we examine is the trading pattern. In this case it’s very obvious that a “rounding top” pattern is being formed (mauve lines). The downside started after the high at the beginning of 2011. After the sell-off in March from the high of 2465 down to 2050 we have seen a 3-wave up bounce to the 2400 level. Then last week a decline started which surprised us and resulted in 5 consecutive down days. With a close at 2291, the 2300 level now becomes resistance thus the CDNX is working in the 2200 – 2300 support band. I have shown 2 major resistance levels at 2300 and 2400 and 4 major pivotal support levels at 2200, 2100, 2050 and 1950. The Fibonacci set (black) shows the 61.8% level close to the 2300 level which makes this a strong resistance and the 38.2% level is close to the 2200 level which makes the 2200 level a strong support area.
Looking at the indicators:
The RSI at 46% is showing an increasing loss of momentum. The RSI support level was just below the 50% mark, so Friday’s dip suggested there was more trouble ahead and we’re seeing it this morning.
The Slow Stochastics (SS) has the %K (black line) at 19% in oversold territory and below the %D (red line) at 25%. Last week’s trading has taken the %K from overbought to oversold, showing a reversal in bullish momentum. Note the SS is much more sensitive to momentum changes than the RSI. SS can stay in the oversold region a long time. This does not necessarily indicate a reversal is near.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows that there has been an overall decline in buying pressure since November and last week’s trading showed a rapid decline from above 0.3 down to 0.114.
What does all this really mean? It means that after reaching the resistance level of 2465 the CDNX appears to have run out of steam – it is tired. It has had an almost uninterrupted upside move since the low in December, 2008, about 28 months. The time has come to start the recharging process before continuing its climb to new highs. With the long-term commodities bull market still very much intact, there is no doubt the CDNX will eventually overcome the 2465 resistance. For the investor, until there is a confirmed reversal to the upside, caution is the name of the game. The Index is showing weakness at the moment but this does not mean there won’t be opportunities. The investor must be selective in his or her investments and be constantly aware of the “sell on news” market actions. It is impossible to say at this time how long this weakness will persist or when a reversal will occur. Just let the charts tell you what the markets are doing and adjust your trading accordingly. Develop a trading plan which includes the first rule of investing – “Protect Your Capital”. As the movie mogul Samuel Goldwyn once said, “It is always difficult to forecast, especially the future”. There’s no reason to panic but be careful.
We will provide another market report by this evening.
Hi BMR
Trader Dan has some good insights as to why the mining stocks are lagging the PM prices.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/hedge-fund-ratio-spread-trades-continue.html
Do you have any opinions on short interest on the venture exchange? Do you think the shorts are articically supressing the juniors?
Thanks in advance
Herb
Comment by Herb — April 18, 2011 @ 7:44 am
I don’t think shorts are supressing the juniors. The juniors just don’t have volume right now (if there was shorting, that would be reflected in the volume). IMO, money is simply not flowing down to the juniors (one of the riskiest asset).
I don’t understand why the sentiment has changed since the end of last year.
I’m frustrated with the market. Just seems like there is very little buyers of junior stocks…
Comment by Bruce — April 18, 2011 @ 11:58 am
Great Article Herb, I think Dan is absolutely correct, he draws out many interesting points in his analysis….
Comment by Forb — April 18, 2011 @ 1:57 pm
Hi Bruce,
Yes volume is poorly, but does that not also make it easier for manipulation to he downside? I find the MM action with penny stocks a little bit arcane
Comment by Herb — April 18, 2011 @ 10:39 pm
Dan as posted another post more pertinent to juniors
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/gdx-majors-versus-gdxj-juniors-ratio.html
Comment by Herb — April 19, 2011 @ 12:17 am
News out on GQC, any comments
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Re: News Release – Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Title: GoldQuest Drilling Intercepts 36.5 Meters Grading 2.74 G/T Gold At La Escandalosa, Dominican Republic; New Director Appointed
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View News Release in PDF Format
VANCOUVER, APRIL 19, 2011 – GoldQuest Mining Corp. (TSX.V – GQC) (“GoldQuest” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce 17 drill hole results from its La Escandalosa project in the western Dominican Republic. Drill results from a further 7 holes are pending. The program was designed to increase drilling density in the La Escandalosa mineralized zone (NI 43-101 compliant inferred resource of 4.86 million tonnes grading 2.60 g/t gold at 0.3 g/t cut off, see news release of 9th November 2010), and to test for extensions to the north and south.
Highlights of the drilling include:
36.5 metres grading 2.74 g/t, including 13.13 metres grading 6.60 g/t gold in drill hole LTP-62;
16.0 metres grading 2.45 g/t gold in drill hole LTP-47
9.2 metres grading 3.54 g/t gold in drill hole LTP-48
The map of the drill hole locations is available for viewing on the Company’s website.
“We are pleased that La Escandalosa remains open to the north and that the drilling confirms our confidence in our initial NI 43-101 resource,” commented Julio Espaillat, the Company’s CEO. “We are continuing exploration in all directions using induced polarization and magnetic geophysical techniques, especially northwards towards Hondo Valle where the best intersection was 20 metres grading 2.65 g/t gold.”
The 17 drill holes reported today are from the fourth phase of diamond drilling at the Escandalosa Sur – Hondo Valle zones in which 24 holes totaling 3,413 meters, averaging 142 metres in depth, were drilled to test a combination of targets including lateral extensions to the known mineralization under a barren cover and to carry out confirmatory infill drilling. Extension of the mineralized zone to the south of the previously reported LTP-34 (7.09 metres grading 5.85 g/t gold) was tested with 6 holes which were all weakly mineralized. The Company has concluded that any potential southern extension of La Escandalosa may have been displaced by faulting. The most northerly drill hole was LTP-47 which returned 16 metres grading 2.45 g/t gold, and the mineralization is open northwards towards the Las Tomates and Hondo Valle zones.
Results received to date from the fourth phase of drilling, at a cut off of 0.3 g/t Au, are as follows:
Hole No. Zone From (m) To (m) Interval (m) Au (g/t)
LTP-45 Escandalosa Sur 58.88 62.05 3.17 2.62
LTP-46 Escandalosa Sur 56.48 62.00 5.52 1.01
LTP-47 Escandalosa Sur 110.00 126.00 16.00 2.45
LTP-48 Escandalosa Sur 88.78 98.00 9.22 3.54
LTP-52 Escandalosa Sur 46.00 58.00 12.00 0.32
LTP-53 Escandalosa Sur 84.00 92.00 8.00 0.46
LTP-54 Escandalosa Sur 57.00 63.00 6.00 0.40
LTP-62 Escandalosa Sur 63.50 100.00 36.50 2.74
Including Escandalosa Sur 63.50 76.63 13.13 6.60
There were no significant intersections from holes LTP-43, 44, 50, 51, 55, 58, 59, 60 and 61. Assay results for the remaining 7 holes, LTP-49, 56, 57, 63, 64, 65 and 66, are pending. All the holes drilled in the La Escandalosa area including those from the most recent program are summarized under the La Escandalosa Project section on GoldQuest corporation website.
The Escandalosa Sur and Hondo Valle zones are interpreted to be part of an epithermal intermediate sulphidation type system hosted in an outcropping, flat-lying to shallowly dipping volcanic sequence. Mineralization typically occurs as a stratiform, weakly silicified body associated with a quartz vein stockwork, with sulphide mineralization characterized by fine-grained pyrite accompanied by minor sphalerite and chalcopyrite.
Core samples were sawn in half lengthways and one half sampled. The samples were prepared and analyzed by Acme Analytical Laboratories Ltd in Maimon, Dominican Republic and Vancouver for gold by fire assay with atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) finish. Multielements were analyzed by four acid digestion and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometer (ICP-ES) analysis. Standards, blanks and duplicate samples were routinely inserted for quality assurance and quality control.
Up to 3,000 meters of diamond drilling are proposed for the second half of 2011, to test the extension of known mineralization and potential new targets being defined by the ongoing geology, geochemical and geophysical programs.
New Director Appointment
The Company is also pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Julio Espaillat, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, to the board of directors.
Bill Fisher, P.Geo., a “Qualified Person” as defined
Comment by GREG H — April 19, 2011 @ 6:25 am
The market doesnt seem to like the drill results?? Dont seem too shabby to me.
Comment by Herb — April 19, 2011 @ 6:51 am
Nothing wrong with these results at all – the model for La Escandalosa is still very much intact…GQC has still not hit the centre of this mineralized system but some of the assays this morning were quite good…the fact a southern extension may be cut off is not an obstacle to GQC still putting together a 1 million ounce+ resource…the ground going north has always been more highly regarded anyway…1200 metres to Hondo Valle, fully open going north….GQC has a nice deposit on its hands at Escandalosa but obviously much more drilling will be required…other excellent targets in the DR to be explored…there is some technical selling at the moment but the low 20’s – what an opportunity – should hold for support…
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 19, 2011 @ 7:53 am
Really dont why the sell-off on GQC, the results look pretty good with excellent mineralisation prospects to the north – am I missing something???
Comment by Herb — April 19, 2011 @ 7:56 am
The market is sick right now, that’s what U are missing!!>>
Comment by Forb — April 19, 2011 @ 3:28 pm