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March 16, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Precious metals are slightly higher today after being under strong selling pressure yesterday…as of 8:00 am Pacific, Gold is up $7 an ounce to $1,403 while Silver is 62 cents higher at $34.86…the U.S. Dollar is up slightly at 76.56 but again the greenback has not been displaying its traditional safe-haven status…U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history…one in four U.S. mortgages are underwater…wholesale prices in the U.S. jumped last month by the most in nearly two years due to higher energy costs and the steepest rise in food prices in 36 years…excluding those volatile categories, inflation was tame…Japan’s benchmark Nikkei snapped back 5.68% overnight after two days of heavy losses…the situation in Japan, though, is grim for the short term as the country grapples with its worst crisis since World War 2…Japan’s contribution to the world economy has fallen from 18% in 1995 to 9% in 2010…in 1995, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio was just 90%…today, the country’s debt is almost double its economic output and the Japanese population is aging rapidly…Japan will rebound, however, and the enormous reconstruction effort should give its economy a boost later this year…scientists are still very concerned, however, about the potential for an 8.0 aftershock, another tsunami and the possibility that the massive subduction earthquake last Friday could trigger volcanic activity…Mount Fuji, about 100 kilometres southwest of Tokyo, is a potentially dangerous stratavolcano that has not erupted for over 300 years (since the last huge earthquake in Japan)…a 6.2 earthquake occurred at a depth of 10 kilometres under the SSW flank of Mount Fuji a couple of days ago…former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan says the Obama Administration’s “activism” in handling economic affairs is hampering what could otherwise be a robust recovery from the recent recession…speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations yesterday, Greenspan argued that companies sitting on stockpiles of cash are unwilling to make long-term capital investments because of increased government regulation…in addition, hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus spending has “crowded out” private investment opportunities…it’s a situation, he said, that closely models the trends during the Great Depression…the CDNX is stronger this morning, up 59 points at 2189 after falling as low as 2054 yesterday…the CDNX will likely face stiff resistance at the 100-day moving average (SMA) of 2200, so we see the turnaround yesterday and the strength today as another potential “bear trap”…traders/investors need to be careful as a significant decline from current levels is still very possible given how the technicals broke down last week (the long-term bull market however remains intact)…having said that, there are still some opportunities in this market for savvy traders…a good example is Gold Canyon (GCU, TSX-V) which released a terrific drill result yesterday morning (7.23 g/t Au over 100.5 metres at its Springpole Project near Red Lake)…the stock fell at the open due to the carnage in the markets but rebounded during the day from a low of $1.95 to a high of $2.81 before closing at $2.70…the stock hit $3.02 this morning and is currently up 25 cents at $2.97…GCU has an attractive chart and its Springpole Project is progressing nicely, so this is certainly a company to keep an eye on…we haven’t mentioned Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) in a while…CUI dropped as low as 13.5 cents yesterday and is up half a penny at 14  cents…the long-term chart continues to look favorable for CUI…the company is gearing up for a drill program at its Sekenke Project in northwest Tanzania…exact timing of that has not been announced but the wet season there has not been as bad as usual…CUI has very strong technical support at its rising 300-day SMA of 12.5 cents…Currie Rose had a weak start to the year but we do expect excitement to return to this play once the company resumes drilling in Tanzania as it has many quality targets to pursue…we’re also bullish on the company’s Scadding Gold Property near Sudbury which it has optioned to Trueclaim Exploration (TRM, TSX-V)…Trueclaim is in the midst of an 8,000 metre drill program at Scadding and very encouraging early results have already been reported…Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V) continues to roar along…RVC hit another new all-time high this morning and is currently up 43 cents to $6.88…it has jumped 474% since we introduced it to BMR readers in December, 2009…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is recovering after touching a low of 35 cents yesterday as it reached a very oversold state…GBB is up a penny to 41 cents…Manitou Gold (MTU, TSX-V) is raising at least $7 million through a combination of hard cash and flow through shares at 55 cents per unit…the stock is up a penny this morning at 66 cents…

15 Comments

  1. Hi guys, are you still invested in VGN? Seems like they have nothing going on in BC while RVC and TYE make constant announcements. Does VGN havd any plans to drill their Nechako property? Anything happening on their supposed plans to buy a new advanced property, somewhere in the Americas? Seems like even though Tony, the CEO hasn’t sold any shares ( which you remind us every weekend )that he isn’t really interested in getting any projects off the ground. Their only saving grace is their monthly oil royalties. Will they ever make a company changing announcement? Are you still predicting a new all time high for VGN sometime in the 1st or 2cd quarter?
    Thanks,
    John

    Comment by john — March 16, 2011 @ 8:10 am

  2. In fairness to BMR I think that they cant deliver news on VGN that simply doesn’t exist. The fact is that this stock is doing nought until Tony delivers some news? Any chance of getting Tony back on BMR for another interview??

    Thanks

    Comment by Herb — March 16, 2011 @ 8:24 am

  3. Great idea, lets get Tony back on BMR for another interview. Atleast we can hear straight from the horses mouth that nothing is going on.This is a very frustrating stock to say the least. I am curious though to know IF BMR still anticipates that VGN will hit an all time high sometime in the 1st quarter or the 2cd quarter like they stated a few months ago?
    John

    Comment by john — March 16, 2011 @ 8:46 am

  4. Another frustrating stock is SD. I am keen to know if BMR still anticipating that SD will climb up?

    Comment by Eric Benson — March 16, 2011 @ 8:55 am

  5. John, one has to face reality here…the CDNX is in a downtrend at the moment, and this could last for a while yet……..a robust market may not return until June……I do not at this point anticipate that VGN will take off in a big way until the second half of this year…….Tony had a chance in the Dec-Jan-Feb period to make something happen but there hasn’t been a NR since November 30…..knowing how he operates, and with these markets, I expect he will “hunker down” and be in a cash-preserving and cash-building mode for a while…..at the same time I’m sure he’s also continuing to look at opportunities………for longer-term investors, VGN is obviously very attractive right now and may become even more attractive if the markets drop more as we expect………….as a shareholder I’ve been as frustrated as anybody, but I know this will bounce back strongly and eventually do extremely well….in a market downtown (which is merely just a correction within an ongoing bull market), this is when big money can be made by accumulating positions in the right situations……

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 16, 2011 @ 10:07 am

  6. I think it’s encouraging, Eric, that SD has arranged a financing at 8 cents…….with the acquisition of the Handeni property as well…….this should allow the stock to hold up………will it climb back up? yes it likely will, but it’s not going to happen overnight………this downtown on the CDNX will not bottom out until sometime during the second quarter……….a lot of stocks will be under pressure until then…..

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 16, 2011 @ 10:11 am

  7. Is stockhouse dead… I know they had financials problems in the past. Nothing is working at 3:28 PM eastern time.

    Comment by Andre — March 16, 2011 @ 11:26 am

  8. just noticed too. probably a server down

    Comment by Pete — March 16, 2011 @ 11:29 am

  9. Earthquake shakes Quebec, Ontario
    CBC News Posted: Mar 16, 2011 1:59 PM ET Last Updated: Mar 16, 2011 3:04 PM ET Read 48 comments Back to accessibility links

    A minor earthquake of magnitude 4.3 has been reported in western Quebec, with tremors extending from the greater Montreal region to Ottawa.

    Oh no…. wasnT to bad.. I won t affect the markets ….loll

    Comment by Andre — March 16, 2011 @ 11:30 am

  10. Thanks Andre,I thought I felt some shaking here in Montreal but thought maybe I was imagining things with all the news about Japan!Montreal-Ottawa corridor supposed to be 2nd worst area in Canada,a very distant second to Vancouver, but none over 6.0 ever recorded ,Thank God!

    Comment by dave — March 16, 2011 @ 1:28 pm

  11. I don’t think it will take too long in the second quarter for market to bottom. I think the end of March will be it. I expect the turn around April 1st, but with a small incline during the summer months.

    Comment by david — March 16, 2011 @ 8:11 pm

  12. guy on bloomberg said Dow is starting to look attractive again with a possibility of 3-4% decline from here (possibility). but overall, it looks good as we get into April. so, agree with you David.

    Comment by STEVE — March 17, 2011 @ 5:29 am

  13. Steve, the guy on Bloomberg doesn’t follow the CDNX, unfortunately, which continues to tell us there is trouble on the horizon for the broader markets as well as commodities. The CDNX correction may only be half over. This is a market right now to be extremely cautious with IMHO.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 17, 2011 @ 5:37 am

  14. Jon keeps reminding us to beware of a bear trap. I’ve placed orders several times when I’ve thought a stock was a good buy but so far I’ve cancelled every order and the share prices continue to decline, so I’m playing it safe, watching and waiting rather like going fishing! 🙂 The only stock in my (now potential) portfolio that seems to have some resistant to dropping further is SFF, the others are too volatile at present.

    Comment by Andrew — March 17, 2011 @ 6:08 am

  15. Andrew, you’re exactly right….beware of the bear trap…I see the potential for many of us to make a fortune on what may unfold over the coming weeks….it’s very tempting to think the bottom has arrived and to jump in and start buying on a day like today, but patience and discipline are what’s required right now in order to take advantage of a meltdown of a different sort that could be coming…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 17, 2011 @ 6:25 am

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