BullMarketRun   BullMarketRun.ca

A Daily, Vibrant Voice Focused on Speculative Opportunities,
Commodities, and Economic & Political Trends Impacting
The Resource Sector & Equity Markets
 

"Market-Trouncing Returns Through Unbeatable
Technical & Fundamental Analysis of Niche Sectors"

February 9, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold got as high as $1,368 this morning but has since backed off…as of 9:00 am Pacific, Gold is down $2 an ounce at $1,362 after a strong move yesterday that took it to a three-week high…Silver is off 19 cents at $30.18…the U.S. Dollar Index is down one-fifth of a point at 77.78…the CDNX got as high as 2387 this morning before reversing…the Index has declined 24 points to 2357…we’ve seen many of these mini-pullbacks since the big run started last summer…this is completely normal and healthy from a technical standpoint, and sometimes even reverses sharply intra-day or a day later…it’s also the best time to be accumulating positions…in testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives’ Budget Committee this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated, “Inflation is expected to persist below the levels that Federal Reserve policymakers have judged to be consistent” with their mandate…Bernanke also expressed concerns about lingering U.S. unemployment and high government deficit and debt levels…it’s likely safe to conclude the Fed is going to maintain a very accommodating monetary policy until at least sometime in 2012 which bodes well for the markets and Gold…the Fed will also want to see a continued weak greenback…everyone has been jumping on the potash and technology plays lately which is all the more reason to be looking at some of the beaten-down Gold stocks before the masses start piling back into them…a good example is Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) which hit its 100-day moving average (SMA) at 37.5 cents this morning…the stock seems to be trading on technicals rather than fundamentals right now which presents opportunity for those who understand the value and potential of the company’s Quinchia Project in Colombia…based on oversold RSI and Stochastics indicators, as well as support levels, Seafield has to be very close to bottoming out after climbing as high as 77 cents in December…watching the trading closely in Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) in recent weeks, there has definitely been consistent accumulation with loose stock being soaked up in an orderly fashion…this suggests continued strong confidence that Granada is going to deliver more very positive results in the near future…the delay in assays likely has to do with re-checking, verification and interpretation of a large amount of data that GENIVAR is probably dealing with…GBB is currently down 2 pennies at 73 cents…GoldQuest has been an out-performer among the Golds so far this year and we expect that trend will continue given the progress it’s making in the Dominican Republic and Spain…corporately, the company is now in better shape than ever with Bill Fisher as Chairman and Julio Espaillat as the new President and CEO…it’s not hard to figure out what’s happening here…these two plan on duplicating what they did at GlobeStar which put into production the DR’s only currently operating mine…of course GlobeStar got taken over late last year for nearly $200 million…GoldQuest is well advanced in the DR, having explored there for over a decade, and the possibility of Fisher and Espaillat building GoldQuest into another GlobeStar (or even a better version of GlobeStar) is very real…in fact we would say probable…GoldQuest’s current market cap is $47 million, so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the potential here…GoldQuest is down half a penny at 46 cents…Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX), which we were mentioning just recently when it was below $2.00, climbed as high as $2.88 this morning…GPR is currently at $2.75, down 3 pennies…it has traded up for 8 consecutive days and is probably due for a little breather…it remains one of our favorite silver plays with a significantly expanding production profile in Mexico…

21 Comments

  1. Last year your picks were good but since the start of this year most of your stocks are down 20% to 50 %.I find also that your are acting ( being 20 years in the business) like stock brokers . When things are good they always answer the phone but when things are going bad the phone is not picked up or there assistant tell us they are not in the office or on vacation.Now guys I notice that you are not answering much of the comments or questions that are directed to you. I know it’s a free site and maybe this is not your day job but I think you guy’s should do a better job to answers the questions.

    Comment by Andre — February 9, 2011 @ 9:29 am

  2. Andre, I endeavor to answer every question that’s posed, so I believe that’s an unfair comment. The fact we allow all positive and negative comments to be posted, like yours, confirms we’re not shying away from anything. If I have missed a particular question that you would me like to answer, please point it out today. But you’re right – we’re not stock brokers and we don’t pretend to be. This is a free site, we offer our opinions, but we’re not here to be your personal investment adviser. Yes, some of our picks have been weak to start the year but that’s the market. We’ve put forward some great companies and over the long term (and perhaps even the short term) I suspect some of them will be exceptional performers. Keep in mind also that an important part of our site is to follow the CDNX and Gold – we have made great calls on both so far this year. When many people were saying Gold was ready to collapse, we correctly and boldly called a bottom. Same with the CDNX at 2200.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 9, 2011 @ 9:59 am

  3. Hi Jon,

    We all really appreciate your work and it is understandable that you may not get to every questions. I think some of here are frustrated with the downward movement of Sidon and don’t understand why the market isn’t reacting to a Director investing a quarter of a million dollars of their own money into the business. What people want to know is how does BMR preceive this, and why hasn’t there been any discussion around this second installment made by Abby.

    Comment by Asher — February 9, 2011 @ 10:08 am

  4. Iv’e had my questions answered, both during good and bad runs. But i’m sure they haven’t answered every question put on here. Cuz as you say, this is a free site, and because of that one should not complain if they don’t do everything perfect. And also, I read most of the questions myself, and many of them are written in such a way that only a fool with a lot of patience would care to answer them. If they didn’t answer your question, maybe try to email them, or write it again on the newest Market Musings. I’m pretty sure they don’t pick some questions and not others. But hey, thats only what I think. But again, it’s a free site, and I think it’s pretty darn good if you think about how much work it is behind it.

    And about this years picks being down, i’m not even going to respond to that one. If you cant figure out why then maybe you should find another hobby.

    Comment by J.C — February 9, 2011 @ 10:09 am

  5. Hi Asher, I’m a SD shareholder as you are. I’ve been involved with them since last Spring when BMR introduced them at around 6c. I sold half my holding before Christmas at an average 21c which was a reward for 7 months of patience. I am not too worried at the current price as I know how quickly this share moves on good news. We all know that an interview with Kamal is imminent and I think its pretty obvious that he is waiting for the drill results first. I take this as a sign of confidence as I do Abby fast tracking the purchase of his second tranche of shares. I know the waiting is the hardest part of this game but hopefully we will all be rewarded when the results come out.

    Comment by Patrick — February 9, 2011 @ 10:49 am

  6. I’ve recently started following BMR and I must say I’m very impressed with your gold bottom prediction, it was right on the mark. The mass media are creating a huge out of context spin against gold and many investors got sidelined by it, but the price of gold will most likely reach new highs this year and the investors will flock into the now beaten gold juniors. Long on several juniors including CUI but not worried.

    Comment by Rafal — February 9, 2011 @ 10:53 am

  7. Thanks Patrick, yes waiting is the hardest part I have been an investor since last year in SD. My concern has been alot of trash talk on Abby and his past ventures and how he is not reliable. I have no doubt in that they have found gold, my only concern is with management, I see no reason to mistrust them but others do.

    Comment by Asher — February 9, 2011 @ 10:57 am

  8. Jon, perhaps I asked too indirectly, having just asked for comments. GQC and EVR are very similar. If they were the same price I might prefer GQC.

    The D.R. limits exploration claims to 30,000 ha or 300 sq.km. Fisher made a point that GQC owns 100% of its’ claims. The implication is that Everton does not and that is correct. But on a net basis Everton has a greater quantity of properties.

    GQC claims it holds quality claims, yet the Everton, APV claims are closer to Pueblo Viejo and the J.V. with GlobeStar which has a disvery is closer to the GlobeStar mill than Las Animas or La Escandalosa of GQC.

    The question is why pay a 30% premium for GQC. I own a significant position in Everton but if it was trading at over a 30% premium to GQC I would sell it and buy GQC.

    BTW a percentage change graph will show that both stocks tracked one another in both bull and bear markets and that generally it was EVR that traded at a premium.

    Appreciate your hard work. Perhaps a premium for PQC is justified, but Jon, how high of a premium does BMR think makes sense?

    Comment by george wohanka — February 9, 2011 @ 12:34 pm

  9. Wow, Andre get a life. BMR is not here to hold your hand and tell you what to invest in. Your total lack of respect for the BMR team ( which provides valuable FREE information) is uncalled for, period! They do NOT claim to have crystal balls ( sorry guys, no pun intended)or pretend to see into the future. this is NOT investment advice, re-read the disclaimer.So, to the BMR team, I, on behalf of rational people will apologise for Andre, as it seems someone like him would not be man enough to own up to a mistake. Now, onto some questions. I did ask a VGN question on Monday I believe, when you have the time, if you could re-read it and try, as best to your abilities help me out with the questions I posted. I am just getting frustrated with VGN’s lack of news and the side ways movement the stock has been showing lately. Best regards, and THANK YOU for the FREE comments and perspective that you provide.

    John.

    Comment by john — February 9, 2011 @ 1:45 pm

  10. Hi John, sorry, somehow I missed your inquiry regarding Greencastle. I’ve been as puzzled by the lack of news from VGN as everyone else, as Roodenburg was clearly communicating to the market last October-November that Greencastle was going to become much more aggressive in the Gold exploration space. So far we haven’t seen anything beyond the acquisition of the property near the Blackwater deposit. So, quite frankly, I’m disappointed, and I hope Tony Roodenburg is reading this. I have not spoken with him since our interview late last year. I will attempt to track him down in the very near future for an update. Like you, I’m a shareholder in VGN and I want to see things progress with this company. What I’ve observed from following Greencastle over the last few years is that things can turn on a dime. The nice thing about this company is that it has real value – at least $6 million in working capital, no debt, monthly revenue, plus some nice Gold properties. So one can sleep well at night holding this, even if you’re down a little bit in your investment (as I am personally at the moment). My hunch is that Roodenburg IS going to do something substantial with Greencastle. He’s opportunistic and as soon as Gold starts to move again in a big way, I don’t think he’ll wait too long. On the run-up to the mid-40’s he wasn’t selling any of his shares, so that’s a good sign. I think too often as investors we get caught up in day-to-day movements and were not patient enough – our focus is on what our stocks do tomorrow or the next day or next week, and we don’t look beyond that. Our thinking is too near-term. Be patient with Greencastle – weakness in any good stock always presents opportunity. Really, the time to be most excited about Greencastle is right now when the price has been slashed by 50% over 2 months.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 9, 2011 @ 2:39 pm

  11. John you are telling me to get a life…. wow . Did you know that 90 % of peoples do no make money on the ventur or any type of penny stocks markets. I have a feeling that you are soon to get a very good lesson. I am on the markets since 22 years. I made a lot of money and also lost a lot but at the end I retired at 38 years old ! And it’s not by being nice you make money. I respect these guys but they are pushing some stocks . They analyse the stocks ..buy them… and after talk about it to push the stock higher to make a profits. This is how they make there money. Do you think they do this for fun. I enjoy reading there comments and often I buy there picks. I got to say they are on a very fine line with regulations and this is why every few days they come out with a disclaimer. Sorry for my english.

    Comment by Andre — February 9, 2011 @ 5:18 pm

  12. Andre – get lost!! you belong on Stockhouse with comments like those, and I’m no better right now I admit, but the hugely positive vibe from BMR and their research needs to be defended at any cost. I have sent personal emails to Jon and John…. and always get a response./. your comments are unfounded

    Comment by Jeremy — February 9, 2011 @ 5:29 pm

  13. Jeremy, I think we all benefit by challenging one another. This is a great site. Those running it want it to be a high quality site as this will enhance their options in the future. Only if the site is one of the best will people pay for access to subscriber areas. Or if they decide to publish a letter, who will subscribe if it is not really good?

    It is true that we all have our own self interest. Comment makers own stocks too. My bias is in favor of Everton. BMR makes favorable comments about Everton and has GQC in its’ portfolio. It is fair to ask BMR how much of a premium GQC should sell at to EVR.

    I had not not heard about GQC prior to reading BMR. Now I can’t wait to buy it. But I will only buy when it is at a discount to EVR.

    How does it hurt BMR to challenge them to explain how high a premium GQC deserves? Or what premium is no longer acceptable?

    I think zero premium is fair but I am interested in learning why others, more qualified than I , think otherwise.

    Comment by george wohanka — February 9, 2011 @ 5:53 pm

  14. Cdn Gold Sector’s $24 Dollar Level :

    Comment by RT — February 9, 2011 @ 6:19 pm

  15. jon bmr i haveyrt to have a response to my question regarding triorigin(toe) have this stock come up on your radar screen?

    Comment by walter emond — February 10, 2011 @ 3:55 am

  16. George – challenge GQC vs EVR – yepper totaly agree.. bashing the publishers – nope.. thats the point I was making… I agree with all you say George.. it was the inference that BMR was being sneaky and not being engaged…
    and Walter – Jon did.. he said he wasnt familiar with the company but the chart looked promising… on a different thread….

    Disclosure – I am not related to anyone at BMR:)

    Comment by Jeremy — February 10, 2011 @ 4:45 am

  17. I believe I responded to that earlier. I know nothing about the company or its projects. The charts appears favorable.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 10, 2011 @ 7:05 am

  18. Hi George, I like EVR a lot as you know. I have a great deal of respect for Andre Audet, the President and CEO, and we have interviewed him here as you know. Personally, I prefer GoldQuest. It just feels more comfortable to me. I know that’s not a very good answer, but they’re very focused, all their projects are 100% owned, and it seems to me to be an easier story to understand. There’s a lot going on within Everton. I’m also very bullish on GQC’s Toral Project in Spain. I think that’s going to be a huge winner. I know there have been some inventory issues, but I think zinc prices will eventually move considerably higher this year – zinc ETF’s are now emerging which is bullish. Anyway, it’s really impossible to say what premium GQC should have vs. Everton (or vice-versa) because in a way you’re comparing apples with oranges. It’s not like they are both restricted to the DR, and Everton has a JV partner. Another reason I tend to favor GQC, especially now, is that this group has a proven track record in the DR – Fisher and Espaillat brought into production the DR’s only currently operating mine. There’s a wealth of experience in GQC as far as the DR goes. GoldQuest is therefore another Globestar in the making and perhaps even bigger and better.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 10, 2011 @ 7:13 am

  19. Thanks much Jon. Love this site and the interviews.

    Comment by george wohanka — February 10, 2011 @ 7:20 am

  20. BMR

    I sincerely hope that one bad apple does not spoil the barrel, since discovering your sight and seeing how much research you guys do for free it is just amazing to me.You guys have been nothing but straight forward in my opinion and have opened my eyes to some great opportunities, it is totally my decision if I want to act on those opportunities or not, and I like the fact that you are putting your money where your mouth is. Anyone that has followed penny stocks for any length of time knows that when newsletter writers tout a new stock pick that there is usually a run up in the price, however 9 times out of 10 it usually comes right back down if you are patient. I surely hope that you guys keep on coming up with the news and research on these companies as I for one realy appreciate what you are doing.
    God Bless
    Greg

    Comment by GREG H — February 10, 2011 @ 9:47 am

  21. BMR

    I echo Greg’s comments and I DO APPRECIATE what this site has for straight forward information and knowledge.

    THANK YOU AND GOD BLESS

    Comment by Charles — February 10, 2011 @ 9:57 am

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

  • All Posts: