Gold has traded between $1,246 and $1,258 so far today…as of 11:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is off its lows of the day and down just $2 an ounce at $1,252…Silver is off slightly at $17.90…Copper is down 3 pennies at $2.60…Nickel is unchanged at $4.60…Crude Oil has surged 76 cents to $53.00 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated one-quarter of a point to 100.96…
For the 3rd week in a row, hedge funds continued to buy Gold and Silver, according to the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission…net bullish positioning in Gold, however, remains modest and is down 29% compared to last year at this time…we interpret that, however, as good news since there’s still lots of space available for traders to hop on the Gold bandwagon when the time is right…
G-7 foreign ministers began a 2-day meeting today in Italy with Syria and the broader Middle East at the top of the agenda…
Morgan Stanley has a new chief U.S. equity strategist in town, and he’s SUPER bullish on stocks for the rest of 2017 – seems to fit with our outlook for the Venture…
“The cyclical upturn that began a year ago has less to do with President Trump and more to do with the global business cycle,” with Trump simply “turbocharging” things, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson wrote in a note today to clients according to a report from CNBC. “The end of the cycle is often the best,” he added. “Think 1999 or 2006–07. In a low-return world, investors cannot afford to miss it.”
Oil Update
Oil prices firmed up again today, the latest in a string of gains tied to last week’s U.S. airstrike in Syria and ongoing civil conflict in the Oil-rich nation of Libya…the country’s largest Oil field, Sharara, has been shut again after local militia blocked the pipeline connecting the facility to an Oil terminal…200,000 barrels a day are normally pumped from the Western Sahara…an outage there means the country isn’t likely to reach its production targets of 800,000 barrels per day by the end of April and 1.1 million barrels per day by August, according to Commerzbank…
In addition to geopolitical factors, demand for gasoline and diesel appears to be strong in the U.S., further supporting the chance a longstanding glut is easing…U.S. inventories kept rising in Q1 but analysts and data-tracking companies have reported that many other storage sites worldwide, especially storage on seaborne tankers, appears to have fallen – in some cases substantially…
Crude futures have closed lower in only 1 session since March 27…
Positive Outlook For Copper
If you’d like a good example of what happens when there’s an RSI(14) breakout above a long-term downtrend line, look no further than this 20-year monthly chart for Copper that tipped us off last year that a major change in trend was underway…the RSI(14) explosion was accompanied by a price breakout above a downsloping flag that formed following the 2011 high of $4.65…
What this chart tells us now is that Copper’s downside is limited to about the $2.47 Fib. level while nearest key resistance is in the mid-$2.80’s…
Buy pressure (CMF) continues to increase on this monthly chart while the ADX indicator shows the first bullish +DI-DI cross since 2009…
In Today’s Morning Musings….
1. Constantine Metals (CEM, TSX-V) suddenly erupts to a 2-year high…
2. EnGold Mines (EGM, TSX-V) reacts well on fresh assay results as Lac La Hache discovery broadens out…
3. Robust PFS underpins Almaden Resources (AMM, TSX)…
4. Daniel’s Den – How the ATAC deal just made Strategic Metals worth a lot more!…
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Daniel – thanks for acknowledging my comments regarding the trading pattern in CEM. It doesn’t happen often but every once in a while I might say something relevant. Just glad to see CEM finally start to move. I have been very patient with it.
Comment by Danny — April 10, 2017 @ 1:34 pm
Asset is too good for CEM to have remained trapped in the range that it was, Danny…pays to be patient.
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 10, 2017 @ 5:47 pm
Exactly Jon, sometimes it takes a while for an asset to get recognized by the market. Sometimes you need to bail and cut your losses and sometimes you need to be patient. Figuring which one to do can be the hard part.
Comment by Danny — April 10, 2017 @ 7:51 pm