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December 13, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,154 and $1,165 so far today…as of 8:15 am Pacific, bullion is down $2 an ounce at $1,160…Silver, at $16.91, has slid 15 cents…Copper is off 3 pennies at $2.57…Nickel is up slightly at $5.09…Crude Oil was up earlier but has since retreated a nickel to $52.78 a barrel while the U.S. Dollar Index is off one-tenth of a point to 100.81

Net outflows from Gold exchange traded products continued yesterday for a 21st straight session in advance of tomorrow’s anticipated Fed rate hike…

Gold showed its strong support again yesterday at $1,150, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see bullion briefly plunge about 2% below that level before a reversal kicks in – a possible scenario that bargain hunters in the Gold stock space should be prepared for…shorts are hoping for just a little more weakness to start covering…they may or may not get it…

Major disruptions continue throughout all segments of society in India following Prime Minister Modi’s declaration of a war on cash…tax authorities in the world’s #2 Gold consumer have compiled a list of bullion dealers and jewelers they believe made “suspicious” sales following Modi’s shock demonetization of the country’s largest banknotes worth 86% of all currency in circulation, and aimed at forcing black market and undeclared cash holdings into regulated, taxable bank accounts…meanwhile, Axis Bank – India’s #1 Gold importer and its third-largest private sector lender – said it has frozen the deposit accounts of several jewelers and Gold dealers after suspending 19 employees over accusations of helping launder “black money”…the Reserve Bank of India took the unusual step yesterday of formally denying rumors that Axis would lose its banking license…ultimately, the chaos that has erupted in that country should further solidify Indians’ affinity with Gold

UBS analysts on Chinese Gold demand after a recent visit there: May pick up next year, sentiment is “relatively neutral to tentatively positive…looking ahead, macro uncertainty and currency volatility in China, against a backdrop of relatively limited investment alternatives, could encourage local market participants to turn to Gold…as Gold is still not considered a mainstream asset from an investment allocation standpoint, we think there’s scope for growth from this sector…this could mean that although this year’s softness in physical demand – particularly in the jewelry segment – could extend, overall Gold interest in China could increase next year. Access to Gold via electronic/mobile platforms continues to grow and this could mean more active trading for many retail investors up ahead.”

Where Is Canada Headed?

rex-tillerson

ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, Trump’s choice for Secretary of State.

President-elect Trump has chosen ExxonMobil (XON, NYSE) CEO Rex Tillerson to serve as Secretary of State (requires Senate confirmation), in many ways a brilliant move for an administration that plans on opening up America for business and making the country the world’s top Oil producer…contrast that with climate change warrior Stephane Dion, Tillerson’s soon-to-be Canadian counterpart, who’s an academic and a career politician who once lived in Paris where it seems he left his loyalties…like night and day!…

The 64-year-old Tillerson has no formal foreign policy experience, but has built close relationships with many world leaders by closing massive deals across Eurasia and the Middle East on behalf of the world’s largest energy company…he is a big friend of Alberta oilsands, a highly welcomed change from the attitude of the Obama administration…

Trump wants Americans to celebrate economic success, entrepreneurship, and richness in Oil…in Canada, countless political leaders and others want us to apologize to the world for the very thing that we do best – extract resources – and make “atonement” for our “sins” contributing to “climate change” by not fully exploiting these resources while others around us flourish and China launches 2 new coal plants a week…

Trump’s decision shows how the U.S. and Canada are moving in very different directions, despite of course this country’s incredible wealth-creation potential…as the Financial Post noted last week after a 4-month investigation, no less than 35 Canadian resource projects worth $129 billion in direct investment – mostly private money – are struggling to move forward or have been sidelined altogether because of opposition from environmental, aboriginal and/or community groups (and, we would add, because of a lack of political leadership)…the downside is adding up: slower growth, lower Canadian Oil prices, investment chill, less control over domestic resources, over-reliance on the U.S. market, regulatory gridlock…

Not surprisingly, Tillerson’s selection has been condemned by a number of environmentalists who have allied with Democratic attorneys general to pursue a high-profile, multi-state probe into ExxonMobil that has sputtered in recent months…

May Boeve, executive director of the radical group 350.org, calls Tillerson an “unfathomable” pick, adding, “Tillerson may be a friend of Putin’s, but he’s no friend of the planet. ExxonMobil is still a leading funder of climate denial and is pursuing a business plan that will destroy our future. Tillerson deserves a federal investigation, not federal office.”

Seasonal Strength Kicks In, New Venture Uptrend Underway

In all probability, investors have already seen the Venture’s December low (736 December 1) and the correction low (717 November 14) from the 848 high August 11

Apart from having a much improved technical posture, after 9 winning sessions out of 13, and successfully testing strong support in the low 700’s since mid-November, history shows that during bull market years the Venture’s December low often occurs during the first 8 days of the month as John outlines in the table below…

It has been 11 years since December 1 was the low for this special month in which seasonality strength always kicks in at a certain point…historically, there has been no better time on the calendar to be a bargain hunter in this market!…

For investors who trade frequently, the December-January dynamic offers a great chance to pocket some impressive short-term gains by about mid-January when there’s often a pullback in advance of another push higher in February (overall, December-January-February are the best 3 consecutive months on the Venture with an average annual gain of 12.6% – greater during bull markets)…

Last year, the Venture’s December low was on the first day of the Fed meeting and the uptrend began the next day when the Fed hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade…tomorrow will likely mark just the second interest rate increase in more than a decade…

venture-table

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. Taylor says sell, BMR says buy – who’s right?…

2. Two new plays in the Oil/gas and Uranium sectors…

3. This “Lion” is getting ready to roar, as soon as Gold reverses…

4. And more!…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

17 Comments

  1. We need a TSXV ETF

    Comment by DavidW — December 13, 2016 @ 9:30 am

  2. Personally, BMR is right. I would never buy or sell on any of Jay Taylor’s recommendations. Period.

    Comment by dave — December 13, 2016 @ 9:36 am

  3. Abcourt (ABI) is on fire …over a 1.77 million share traded and up 29%. Perhaps word is getting out.

    Comment by Paul — December 13, 2016 @ 9:40 am

  4. I just got me a little CNZ here at $1.05. Test the waters.

    Comment by dave — December 13, 2016 @ 9:45 am

  5. Jeremy, Patricia, this looks like bottom out day on NF. Should go up from here.

    Comment by dave — December 13, 2016 @ 10:13 am

  6. ABI, huge offer at .11, will it disappear. NF , huge buy just now by anon, 161k.

    CNZ looking better since $1.04 bottom.

    Comment by dave — December 13, 2016 @ 11:47 am

  7. Keep an eye on SIC tomorrow.

    Comment by dave — December 13, 2016 @ 11:57 am

  8. Dave, you holding pma?

    Comment by John — December 13, 2016 @ 12:46 pm

  9. John, no, not holding pma. Missed this last run up. Watching for re-entry.

    Comment by dave — December 13, 2016 @ 1:35 pm

  10. Dave – from now one maybe my name should be Jericia!:) LOFL… CNZ.. close… darn it eh!:) gotta have more patience..
    NF … looking good for sure as is VP.cn ..
    And Paul – what word you be talkin about??? I have held since 2011.. man I need some love on this guy!

    Comment by Jeremy — December 13, 2016 @ 2:51 pm

  11. Anyone noticed Diagnos (adk.v)? 2 big pharmaceuticals
    On board and approval to get the orders running!

    Comment by Tran — December 13, 2016 @ 3:03 pm

  12. Aurora Cannabis halted with RTI RTI is a microwave technology company which I am assuming ACB will buy and own the technology to extract certain compounds from a weed plant:)

    Comment by Jeremy — December 13, 2016 @ 3:10 pm

  13. Hmmmm, eyes on ACB too.

    Comment by dave — December 13, 2016 @ 6:40 pm

  14. Jeremy – Yes, VP had a nice day.

    Comment by dave — December 13, 2016 @ 8:24 pm

  15. ABI – reopened a mine … increased production.. wonder why they would that if they thought that metal prices would be in the dumper.. makes one wonder

    Comment by Jeremy — December 14, 2016 @ 5:24 am

  16. Hey Dave – just wondering if you think PMA- V is so undervalued and that the signing will happen to prop this thing up why weren’t you buying at $0.05 or now? just curious. thanks

    Comment by omega — December 14, 2016 @ 5:58 am

  17. and a better one today Dave!! CNZ news as well… ACB.. a partnership with the technology.. not an acquisition..
    lots of pot news and moves:)

    Comment by Jeremy — December 14, 2016 @ 6:23 am

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