Gold has traded between $1,304 and $1,317 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $2 an ounce at $1,308…Silver is up 5 cents at $18.61…Copper is flat at $2.09…Crude Oil has slipped $1.56 a barrel to $44.79 as U.S. Crude stocks rose more than expected, while the U.S. Dollar Index is unchanged at 96.00 after climbing above 96.20 earlier in the day…
Who would have thought – Donald Trump is in Mexico today, meeting with the Mexican President…is that the kick-off to a wild September, politically and in the markets?…
Gold has touched a 2-month low and is headed for a loss of around 3% this month vs. a 15.3% slide in the TSX Gold Index and a 1% drop in the Venture through yesterday…the fact the Venture has significantly out-performed Gold and the Gold Index this month is a positive sign that bullion’s weakness is temporary…
Gold holdings of the world’s largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares, are down 2.7 tonnes in August, compared with an inflow of 8 tonnes in July…
U.S. Private Sector Jobs Growth Restricted To Services
U.S. private sector job creation was in line with expectations in August, despite weakness in manufacturing and construction, according to the latest report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics…companies added 177,000 positions for the month vs. Wall Street expectations for 175,000…
While the headline number appeared solid, the internals were weaker…all of the new jobs came from services which added 183,000 positions…goods-producing industries actually lost 6,000 for the month after shedding 5,000 jobs in July, which makes one wonder why Fed Chair Stanley Fischer would say in an interview yesterday that the U.S. job market is nearly at “full strength”…
Private payrolls have not grown by more than 200,000 since March…
The ADP report is watched closely by investors as a precursor to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report by the Labor Department…Wall Street is looking for payroll growth of 185,000 with the “official” unemployment rate expected to drop a tick to 4.8%…
Yellen & Other Central Bankers Have “Mastered The Art Of Market Manipulation”
The Federal Reserve, with its bargain-basement interest rates and money printer always on standby, is manipulating financial markets and crushing capitalism, bond king Bill Gross said in his latest broadside against the U.S. central bank…
In a letter to clients, Gross addresses Fed Chair Janet Yellen directly, saying the policies she has pushed “have deferred long-term pain for the benefit of short-term gain.”
It’s not just the Fed’s policies in our view, however, that have created all sorts of market distortions – the rhetoric of Fed officials has impacted everything from the central bank’s own credibility to trading patterns across a range of markets…
The criticisms come as the Fed is weighing whether to raise interest rates after years of keeping them anchored in efforts to stimulate the economy and jump-start inflation…instead, Gross said, the Fed has merely inflated asset prices while actually harming the economy…Yellen and other global central bankers “all have mastered the art of market manipulation and no – that’s not an unkind accusation – it’s one in fact that Ms. Yellen and other central bankers would plead guilty to over a cocktail at Jackson Hole or any other get together of PhD economists who have lost their way,” Gross wrote…
Canada’s Q2 GDP Suffers Worst Performance In 7 Years
Stats Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy shrivelled in the 2nd quarter to its worst performance in 7 years – but fear not, Prime Minister Trudeau will deliver the kind of “stimulus” that will turn things around in a flash…besides, the Q2 slump was merely an aberration – the result of the wildfires in Fort McMurray and the impact that had on the Oil sector!…
Real GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the 3-month period, the biggest quarterly decline since Q2 2009 when Canada was trying to battle its way out of the global financial crisis…the contraction reported this morning compared with growth at an annual pace of 2.5% in Q1…
Crude Oil Update
WTIC has been pressured in recent days by a U.S. dollar rally and high stocks of physical Oil, though prices remain on track for a significant monthly gain…
Oil prices had rallied by more than 20% from the beginning of August on hopes that producers were reviving talks on a possible output freeze, setting WTI on course for its largest monthly advance since April…
Many analysts still expect a tighter supply and demand balance toward the end of the year and are raising price forecasts accordingly, with Barclays lifting its Q4 forecast by $2 to $52 a barrel…
Technically, the set-up in Oil is a classic inverted head and shoulders bottom as you can see in John’s 15-month weekly chart…a breakout above the “neckline” would therefore be extremely bullish, and could possibly push prices into the $70’s…
Stay tuned for our next ETF and individual stock recommendations in the Oil space – there’s plenty of money to be made there over the next 6–12 months…
In Today’s Morning Musings…
1. The bad news/good news concerning the Venture…
2. An extraordinary opportunity that could emerge – be prepared!…
3. Daniel’s Den – Gold sector investing strategies, and why are prices and volumes dropping in nearly every luxury real estate market across the world?…
Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…
Every time I buy more ABN it drops, just like with GGI..and my curse continues.
Comment by Sameer — August 31, 2016 @ 9:38 am
repost – OK all.. have caught up on my reading.. and it is a majority vote that we are very close to a bottom, and Feb-July was is NOT a counter trend rally .. for what its worth… but this correction is scary for a bunch of people.. so we are still scarred and scared… that needs to be remembered since peeps will sell early due to that.. ABN/CXO as an example…
but remember that this is just opinion.. who knows except the shadow:)
Comment by Jeremy — August 31, 2016 @ 10:02 am
Sameer – what are tyou buying next so I can bail on it before you buy!
Comment by dave — August 31, 2016 @ 10:06 am
Haha Dave that’s probably a good idea, it seems that everything I touch turns to dust.
Comment by Sameer — August 31, 2016 @ 10:10 am
I’m not thinking that way sameer, unfortunately to those that are weak I’m nibbling off of them, especially in the golden triangle, and yes even ggi, permits in hand and will drill, take advantage…..who cares about job numbers, watch inflation, that’s key.
Comment by Laddy — August 31, 2016 @ 10:12 am
I am also taking advantage including NRN today. You can bet it will go up on speculation as the drill continues to turn.
Comment by Dan1 — August 31, 2016 @ 10:20 am
Good post Laddy, agree that inflation numbers are key. I sold 80% of my GGI but it’s getting darn close to the time when I may start nibbling away. Buy when it’s quiet, sell when everyone is talking about it.
Comment by Danny — August 31, 2016 @ 10:21 am
Would be encouraging to see a leading indicator like Richmont close green this afternoon eh?
Comment by Daniel — August 31, 2016 @ 10:38 am
More info… From CIBC
The good news is that two-thirds of the correction in the TSX gold sector, by historical measures, is behind us – peak-to-trough the sector has corrected by over 19%, while noting that the average correction in an up-cycle since mid-80’s is ~27%. During upcycles (rising key averages, and confirmed by monthly RSI), corrections in excess of 25% have historically provided a better buy opportunity; and we believe that this time is no different. Technically, the short-term velocity measures (RSI, ROCs) are already exhibiting nearterm oversold condition in the sector, providing some mean-reversion characteristics. From a breadth perspective, we would note that the August 30 close forced over 50% of our gold sector constituents below their respective rising 100-d average, while placing the sector against the lower 2-std deviation Bollinger. The combination of the lower Bollinger, RSI of 28, and the piercing of the rising 100-d average should prefigure what we believe to be a near-term tactical oversold meanreversion potential – a bounce. However, the medium-term breadth studies suggest that investors should be more patient for a more normalized corrective trough process. Based on historical measures and the current elevated monthly RSI factor, the sector is probably poised to validate better and stronger support levels. At current levels, 86% of the sector constituents are still well above their rising 200-d, and while this is a good sign, it is certainly not a trough sign. Historically, a better trough is observed when the % above the 200-d average is closer to 30%-50% range.
Comment by Jeremy — August 31, 2016 @ 10:46 am
see new video from DVR
http://www.deveronuas.com/journal/2016/8/30/using-a-uav-to-scout-for-spider-mites
Comment by Dan1 — August 31, 2016 @ 2:26 pm
Daniel, great article- one of the best ones in recent times- Volatility is an opportunity for those who embrace it! That should be etched in ‘gold’ for eternity ! This is not the time to be afraid of our own shadow- stay the course and keep buying what you believe in with a margin of safety with a downside that you can come out of alive!!. Let volatility take care of the rest! What doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger!!
Comment by sjaffers — August 31, 2016 @ 9:07 pm
It is September at last. I see there are a few CXO for sale at 41c….they will not last long with very strong support at 40c and the PP about to close…..then it will move up fast.
Comment by John - BMR — September 1, 2016 @ 5:07 am
ISM came in at 49.4 in August. Below 50 is contraction. This is not the type of economic data that encourages one to raise rates. Dollar down and gold getting a pop on the news.
Comment by John — September 1, 2016 @ 6:20 am
Those who believe the Fed will be raising rates this month are simply delusional IMHO, and this morning’s ISM number as you mentioned John is yet another indication that there are inherent weaknesses in the U.S. economy…historically, August has also been a jobs disappointment – 9 misses in the last 12 years – as we’ll outline in today’s Musings…any upside surprise tomorrow would have to be viewed as a rigged number or bad data (yet again) from the Labor Department…
Comment by Jon - BMR — September 1, 2016 @ 6:34 am
and the jobless number was up as well..
Jon – Tudor gold.. whats your mindset on that guy now that it has returned to earth?? really light volumes!! TIA
Comment by Patricia — September 1, 2016 @ 6:36 am
I like it around the $1 level, Patricia, that’s where it has been showing strong support and it’s where the $3 million financing was…Walter Storm controls this stock to a considerable extent and I’m sure he doesn’t want to see it dip below $1…over the next couple of years, anyway, Storm is going to be a big player in the area so that bodes well for how Tudor will perform over the long haul…it’ll be volatile but there will be opportunities for retail players to make money…
Comment by Jon - BMR — September 1, 2016 @ 6:45 am
the fed has backed themselves into a corner with no escape,the trump ad shows Pinocchio’s nose growing every time crooked Hillary opens her mouth(hilarious),now they should show all the fed members on tv with the same caption.
Comment by Laddy — September 1, 2016 @ 6:59 am
MXL – on another one of its patented runs
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 7:19 am
There are always stocks that defy the correction of the venture. I am in 2 of them, luckily. CNZ and MXL
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 7:54 am
Speaking on CNZ – what is coming is a run to the .55 area. Then it is going to correct for a brief period down to .50, intra day maybe hitting .48
Her next run after this will take her from the 50’s to .75 very hard and quick. Timing should be within the September monthly chart
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 7:59 am
So much for the very bullish on CLE. But you would have to be crazy to sell here. I am sure Jon agrees.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 8:04 am
I leave tomorrow for Tarapoto, Peru. If I dont post again, hope you all have a wonderful holiday weekend.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 8:07 am
Current CLE support is .10 to .11, Dave, and the long-term chart shows a primary bullish trend…location and size mean A LOT and you gotta love where CLE is located across the country, the sectors they’re in and the scope of their land packages…
Comment by Jon - BMR — September 1, 2016 @ 9:45 am
Any one woning Bayhorse Silver?
It’s definately my Silver top pick.
Possible 1 million tonnes of 16 to 20 OUNCES a ton.
David Morgan had to ask the director If it was not
A misprint. It’s not and David Morgan as a respected
Silver analyst was stunned!!!!
Comment by Tran — September 1, 2016 @ 10:10 am