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August 19, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,337 and $1,351 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $9 an ounce at $1,343…Silver is off 41 cents to $19.29…Copper has slid a penny to $2.17…Crude Oil is down slightly at $48.18 while the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied one-third of a point to 94.56

HSBC says negative interest rates in much of the world remain a bullish factor for Gold…the bank cites a Financial Times report on a study by Standard & Poor’s saying that almost 500 million people are living in a climate of negative central bank interest rates, representing roughly 25% of global gross domestic product…

HSBC also quotes S&P as saying these rates are a clear sign of economic and policy desperation. “The study cautions of the risks associated with negative-rate policies, including excessive investor risk taking, prompted by low borrowing rates.”

Canada’s Inflation Rate Drops In July, But…

Canada’s annual inflation rate was 1.3% in July as Canadians paid more for shelter and food but less for fuel, Stats Canada reported this morning…the overall inflation number in the federal agency’s latest Consumer Price Index came in a little weaker than the 1.5% year-over-year increase in June…the cost of shelter and food items generated the biggest upward nudges on inflation…Canadians paid 9.8% more for potatoes last month compared with July 2015, 10.3% more for fresh or frozen fish, and 15.6% more for apples…under the shelter category, the price of electricity was 5.4% higher than the year before…

Obamacare & Fed “Stimulus” Will Both Fail: Schiff  

The recent troubles plaguing Obamacare are comparable to what will happen with Fed stimulus, according to economist Peter Schiff, who is predicting the downfall of both…in his latest blog post, the frequent critic of the Federal Reserve seized on the increasing negative Obamacare outcomes – Aeta shuttering exchanges, surging costs, and reported layoffs due to the national health plan…he said they’re to be expected when the government ignores market realities and over-reaches…

More Fed Follies – Good For Gold

Janet Yellen

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks next Friday (August 26) at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Certain Fed officials keep sending confusing signals while they also continue to play the game of talking up the near-term possibility of another rate hike, even though many of their predictions over many months have been wildly off the mark…they are better off just to keep quiet…San Francisco Fed President John Williams stated in a speech yesterday, “In the context of a strong domestic economy with good momentum, it makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases, preferably sooner rather than later.” 

Yes, if only the economy was strong (not fragile) and actually had momentum…despite all the hot rhetoric from multiple Fed officials over the last couple of years, including Yellen at times, this group hasn’t had the courage to raise rates more than once and only by a quarter point (the only rate hike in a decade)…

The gap between their rhetoric and real action is as wide as the Grand Canyon…

Williams yesterday warned against waiting too long to raise rates again, noting the risks of delayed action:  “If we wait until we see the white’s of inflation’s eyes, we don’t just risk having to slam on the monetary policy brakes, we risk having to throw the economy into reverse to undo the damage of overshooting the mark.  And that creates its own risks of a hard landing or even a recession.”

However, just several days ago, the same Williams wrote in the latest issue of his regional Fed bank’s Economic Letter: “There is simply not enough room for central banks to cut interest rates in response to an economic downturn when both natural rates and inflation are very low (our emphasis).

He also argued for setting higher inflation targets, tying monetary policy directly to economic output, and instituting government spending programs that automatically kick in during economic downturns (increasing the government’s massive debt, of course)…

Wow…do you not get the sense that Fed officials are “all over the map”, simply confused?…Gold has picked up on that in a big way this year…

S&P 500 Predicting An Election Landslide?

Interesting – the last 4 times the S&P 500 has hit a new high in August during an election year, the victor won in a landslide (so Hillary needs to be very careful!)…that insight comes from Art Cashin, director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange for UBS, and was confirmed by CNBC…history could be poised to repeat itself with the S&P having struck a number of new highs this month, most recently yesterday…the last time August highs overlapped with a landslide was in 1992 when Bill Clinton won 32 states to George H.W. Bush’s 18…that year, the S&P hit a high of 425 in August…the previous instance of an election-year August high occurred ahead of the 1980 contest between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter, when Reagan took 44 states…

Kinross Wants Out Of Chile

The Globe and Mail reported this morning that unnamed sources say Kinross Gold (K, TSX) wants to get out of Chile and has put its main assets in that country up for sale…the potential move comes at a time Kinross has suspended operations at Maricunga, its major mine in Chile, because of environmental concerns raised by Chilean regulators…sources say Kinross has hired Bank of Nova Scotia to help find buyers for its two main Chilean Gold mines…

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. TSX chart points to major gains ahead…

2. A technical pattern to profit from in Colorado Resources

3. Skeena Resources and Bonterra Resources updates…

4. Daniel’s Den – 5 compelling Oil stocks to consider…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

Comments (4)

4 Comments

  1. Jon
    Did you guys ever hear who the major was that was recently looking at the heart of gold camp and who they were looking at ?

    Comment by GREGH — August 19, 2016 @ 3:11 pm

  2. Yes, Greg, I’m not being coy but on rare occasions there is certain information we come across in our investigations, or from our sources, that is best kept private, at least for a period of time, in the interests of broader causes…the visit occurred, from a well known producer, and it’s apparent to me that they are looking at the Camp in the context of a certain type of deposit…confirmation of this visit came from a non-company related contact on the ground we established while we were there in late July…due to the likelihood of confidentially agreement(s) between this producer and 1 or more juniors in the Camp, we have elected not to disclose the name of that company at this time…the visit should really come as no surprise, given overall exploration developments, and I am sure there will be future similar visits to the Camp and specific properties by other producers and interested parties…

    With regard to the separate issue of Kinross, which increased its position in CXO at the end of May, it’s fair to speculate they have already been at KSP, or will be in the very near future, to check things out…and they would be impressed with their visit, I’m sure…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 3:53 pm

  3. Jon
    Thanks I understand your position
    Any chance you can name the company the major was looking at ?

    Comment by Greg — August 19, 2016 @ 7:36 pm

  4. KSP was one, Greg, but more than 1 property was being looked at. Makes sense to get a district context.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 8:59 pm

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