Gold has traded between $1,345 and $1,355 so far today following yesterday’s release of minutes from July’s Fed meeting…they showed some dissension on the Fed but the doves do remain in control, to the extent the Fed is actually in control of itself…
Expect more of the same from the FOMC, therefore, in terms of action which means nothing – a continuation of the status quo and very little possibility of a rate hike until 2017 at the earliest given uneven economic data…as of 9:15 am Pacific, Gold is up $2 an ounce at $1,350…Silver has gained a nickel to $19.67…Copper is 2 cents higher at $2.18…Crude Oil has surged $1.30 a barrel to $48.09 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-third of a point to 94.30 in the wake of the Fed minutes…some silly traders allowed themselves to get stung by hawkish comments the other day from Fed members Dudley and Lockhart, remarks that made little sense and continued a disturbing pattern from certain Fed officials that has only damaged Fed credibility…
Gold continues to consolidate in a sideways range between about $1,330 and $1,360…a breakout in September above $1,400 is likely in our view based on multiple technical and fundamental factors…keep in mind that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen plans to speak on August 26 at the central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (she skipped the event last year)…the conference brings together central bankers from around the world and has been the venue for major Fed policy announcements…
Holdings in global bullion-backed exchange traded funds fell 4 metric tons to 2,028.9 tons yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…
This is positive for the commodities space…rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has raised its forecasts for China’s economic growth in the wake of “significant” fiscal and monetary stimulus policies…the ratings agency upped its GDP forecasts for the mainland to 6.6% for 2016 from 6.3% previously and to 6.3% in 2017, up from 6.1%…
“The slowdown and rebalancing of China’s economy is likely to be gradual,” said Madhavi Bokil, a senior analyst at Moody’s, in a statement. “Thus we do not expect China to exert a significant drag on global growth prospects over the rest of 2016 and in 2017.”
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve this morning said its manufacturing business outlook survey rose to 2 in its August reading, up from a negative 2.9 reading in July…according to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see a rise of 1.4…although the headline number was better than anticipated, the report highlighted continued weakness within the manufacturing sector, noting that this is only the third positive reading in the survey this year…
Oil Update
WTI prices have hit a 6-week high on continued speculation regarding a coordinated effort by OPEC members and other large producers to reign in production levels…meanwhile, the Saudis this month keep pumping Oil at record levels, faster than rabbits can make bunnies (negotiating tactics on their part, perhaps)…
OPEC members will meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria September 26–28…
“We remain sceptical that renewed talks of a production freeze by OPEC and other large producers will lead to a deal,” ANZ analysts said today in a note. “Prices are only marginally above where they were when the group met in Doha in April and couldn’t agree to a deal.”
The behavior of the Venture does argue for an upside bias in Oil prices over the next 12 months which is one reason we recommended to our subscribers a trade in the HOU double bull Crude ETF late last month as WTI hit important technical support…
A New Kind Of High
Over the past 3 weeks, Canadian medical marijuana stocks have raised $124.5 million in equity…that makes this the busiest quarter on record and almost 6 times what was raised in the 2nd quarter…the financings are more than half the amount marijuana-focused companies have raised in total since the 1st quarter of last year…that group of companies has raised $206.6 million over the last 20 months, through 13 separate transactions, according to information prepared by FP Data Group…
Thank You, Mr. Tax Man!
Spanish Mountain Gold (SPA, TSX-V) has successfully obtained a refund totalling approximately $3.9-million in relation to the mining exploration tax credit attributable to qualified mining exploration expenses incurred for the project…
Larry Yau, interim CEO commented: “Our hard work has resulted in this source of significant funding for the company without any stock dilution, debt or sales of assets (actually, it was a government “giveaway” but no doubt they had to pester bureaucrats to get the full $3.9 million). We will now focus on advancing our project by further expanding its multimillion-ounce mineral resource and demonstrating its robust economics even under a much lower Gold price environment.” Not sure what Yau means about a “much lower” Gold price environment, as Gold in Canadian dollars is not far off an all-time high…the base case Gold price in the company’s 2012 PEA was $1,462 (U.S.)…
In Today’s Morning Musings…
1. TSX Gold Index update – an amazing trend shows no signs of letting up…
2. Why we’re excited about Almadex Minerals (AMZ, TSX-V)…
3. Updates on Gold Standard Ventures (GSV, TSX-V) and Aben Resources (ABN, TSX-V)…
Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password.
Looking at the last 2 candlesticks, looks like NRN is about ready to advance.
Comment by dave — August 18, 2016 @ 3:36 pm
I’m happy Dave that NRN hasn’t advanced yet this week. Now I’m loaded and ready for the advance.
Comment by Dan1 — August 18, 2016 @ 4:02 pm
Debeers announces the start of drilling on CVV property. CLE now has lithium work in progress, Debeers drilling, and NRN about to start. I like those odds
Comment by dave — August 18, 2016 @ 4:21 pm
Well, does everything go kinda sideways till Janet climbs out of her hole next week, and finally tells the shadey truth of what’s really going on with the us economy. Gezz !
Comment by Laddy — August 18, 2016 @ 7:09 pm
I believe next Friday could mark the next big turn in Gold, Laddy, which wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened at Jackson Hole…
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 4:29 am
Hope so, not so good right now.this one fed member is sure pushing the issue for sept hike, yup just a whole lot of bs.
Comment by Laddy — August 19, 2016 @ 4:38 am
The Fed is in a pickle, Laddy; no chance of a September rate hike and the earliest they could possibly move is December but even that appears very remote given economic realities and the fact that the fiscal policy picture really won’t clear until after the next President is sworn in next January…meanwhile, as every month passes, the closer the U.S. gets to a recession…I truly believe the Fed’s next major move will be an easing measure…
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 4:52 am
yup agreed,this is clearly the establishment trying to hang on as long as they possible can,cause they know whats coming.
Comment by Laddy — August 19, 2016 @ 5:14 am
How does the market believe anything the fed says anymore? It’s mind boggling. How do they have any credibility left at all? Possibility of a September rate hike! That’s absolutely ludicrous.
Comment by Sameer — August 19, 2016 @ 5:41 am
Perhaps one reason that some of these Fed officials are getting a sense of urgency on a rate hike is that an immediate hike (or even 2 before year-end) would give them a little more wiggle room to loosen in the event a recession begins at some point in 2017…that’s probably what they’re thinking…their worst fear would be going into a recession where they’re at right now on rates…
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 6:47 am
I believe your right Jon. The homes in the subdivision I sold my house last December have gone up in riculous proportion. I keep hearing of another housing bubble on its way.
Comment by dave — August 19, 2016 @ 6:51 am
Dave – the same mortgage games are being played in the US… some say the exposure is higher now than in 2006-2008… nobody learns.. cause they dont want to.. now that banks can bailin depositors funds who the fk cares????
Comment by Patricia — August 19, 2016 @ 6:55 am
think their heading to one either way,by hikeing they will get to a recession quicker,heading into a recession during an election? wouldn’t that be interesting…..
Comment by Laddy — August 19, 2016 @ 7:18 am
What’s going on with TKK? Not moving and very little interest and no news. You guys still bullish on this one?
Comment by Ed — August 19, 2016 @ 7:36 am
Yes, stock has been quiet just recently, but given the direction of Silver (and Cobalt), and the growing interest in this general area of northern Ontario for both Silver and Cobalt, TKK’s prospects are exceptionally good…
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 8:00 am
Yes Patricia, with the USDA doing 100% loans the last 5 years, its turning into that bubble again. I would not doubt the exposure is higher now
Comment by dave — August 19, 2016 @ 8:25 am
Well, so much for the nice chart set up on NRN
Comment by dave — August 19, 2016 @ 8:39 am
NRN – that looked like a set up between 2 houses, tons of 5k blocks came through both showing anon on both sides
Comment by dave — August 19, 2016 @ 9:00 am
Bit of a sell off on NRN this afternoon; although I wouldn’t call 2 cents a sell off. Picked up more. Drill baby drill.
Comment by Dan1 — August 19, 2016 @ 9:04 am
A single RBC investor took NRN down briefly on a relatively small market order sell (maybe he was anxious to build a deck before the end of summer)…no big deal, though crazy how some people trade…firming up again…
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 9:16 am
Jon, what I found interesting is before RBC, there were numerous 5k lots coming through at .22 with anon on both sides. crosses.
Comment by dave — August 19, 2016 @ 9:47 am
Some normal profit taking that is also getting eagerly soaked up…cleans the stock up for the next leg higher…CLE is looking very good as well, just above its 50-day SMA which should start to reverse higher very soon (bullish for September)…
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 10:18 am
Jon, I have my eyes on one. How do you relate central british columbia to the golden triangle. I am talking about the area near the milligan mine.
Comment by dave — August 19, 2016 @ 10:30 am
Not sure what you mean, Dave….geographically, Golden Triangle is in northwest B.C. starting from around Stewart…central B.C. of course is to the south, but very prolific in its own way geologically…
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 19, 2016 @ 10:43 am
thanks, I knew it was not in the triangle, but was wondering on how prolific an area
Comment by dave — August 19, 2016 @ 10:52 am
milligan mine owned by tcm, north west of prince George, central bc, yes.brrr in the winter….
Comment by Laddy — August 19, 2016 @ 12:15 pm