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May 18, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,266 and $1,277 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $7 an ounce at $1,272…Silver is off 14 cents at $17.08…Copper has fallen 2 cents to $2.10…Crude Oil is up 44 cents to $48.75 while the U.S. Dollar Index has gained nearly one-fifth of a point to 94.71

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust rose 0.56% to 855.89 tonnes yesterday, the highest since November 2013

Traders will be eyeing the Fed’s April meeting minutes, due shortly this morning, for further clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook…

U.S. data yesterday showed consumer prices posting their biggest increase in more than 3 years in April…housing starts and industrial production rebounded strongly last month as well…what would the Fed do, however, if inflation were to start picking up but the Obama low economic growth problem continued?…here’s a fact that the left in the U.S. and Canada doesn’t like to hear – Obama is the first President in American history to not see a single year of 3% GDP growth…under Ronald Reagan, average annual real GDP growth was 3.5%…Obama will be lucky to average 1.5% GDP growth during his 8 years…there are simple reasons for that, yet Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders – the angry, bitter 73-year socialist – want to take the Democratic Party even further to the left…

Goldman Got It Wrong On Gold & The Fed – Now They’re Pushing High-Yield Credit

Goldman Sachs has a “neutral” view on equities over the next 12 months, saying there’s no particular reason to own them.  “Until we see sustained signals of growth recovery, we do not feel comfortable taking equity risk, particularly as valuations are near peak levels,” Goldman said in a note yesterday…the firm downgraded Europe and Japan equities to “neutral” over a 12-month view, while upgrading U.S. equities to neutral.  “The Fed has been more dovish than we initially expected,” Goldman admitted, “and market impact and realization of policy divergence has slowed, creating a boost to the U.S. relative to Europe and Japan.  A strong yen and euro are weighing on European and Japanese earnings, while negative rates weigh on their financials.”

Goldman said it prefers credit to equity, with valuations less stretched, particularly in the high-yield segment…it’s staying overweight on credit on both 3-month and 12-month horizons…

Oil Update

Oil futures remain firm as traders continue to weigh the impact of unplanned supply disruptions from Alberta to Nigeria…

Oil Drilling

The extent of the supply disruptions has clearly been more significant than most analysts had expected…unscheduled supply outages in the Oilsands, due to the Fort McMurray wildfires, as well as Nigeria (militant/terrorist attacks) are amounting to around 2 million barrels per day (bpd) – giving Oil prices strong support in recent weeks…Nigeria’s Oil minister says sabotage had reduced the country’s output by 800,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd…

There is plenty of supply elsewhere which is why Oil prices aren’t skyrocketing at the moment, though the fundamentals and technicals are lined up for higher prices…exports from Iran are set to surge this month to 2.1 million bpd, nearly 60% above their level a year ago, with European shipments recovering to about half of their pre-sanction levels…

U.S. Crude inventories in the week to May 13 fell by 1.1 million barrels to 541.9 million, as reported this morning by the EIA…analysts had expected a fall of 2.8 million barrels, American Petroleum Institute (APP) data showed yesterday…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) digs deeper into the “Heart of Gold” Camp with 2 key property acquisitions and announces drill permits for King North…

2. Updated charts for GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) and Precipitate Gold (PRG, TSX-V)…

3Venture vs. the U.S. dollar…

Plus more…click here to take advantage of our Spring Sizzler Subscription Special in effect for a limited time only, or login with your username and password to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings… 

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9 Comments

  1. yup obamas legacy is to run the us futher into the ground,trump may not even want to president come November, to big of a mess.

    Comment by Laddy — May 18, 2016 @ 11:15 am

  2. Nice to see 7 digit volume on ggi, been awhile hey Jon, kudos to regoci for expanding king,was hopeing to see that happen, should start slowly creeping up in the coming days.good day considering the U.S. still haven’t a clue what their doing.

    Comment by Laddy — May 18, 2016 @ 12:34 pm

  3. http://smallcappower.com/top-stories/exploration-penny-stock-jumps-land-increase/

    Comment by DavidW — May 19, 2016 @ 4:29 am

  4. Gold should hold?….. http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/12839

    Comment by STEVEN1 — May 19, 2016 @ 6:18 am

  5. No reason it won’t hold, Steven1…the weakness yesterday and today is entirely to do with the Fed…some traders haven’t figured out yet that whatever Fed officials say, doesn’t matter…no rate hike next month…in other words, BUY THE DIP.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 19, 2016 @ 6:22 am

  6. all they are trying to do is keep the $ from going into the toilet,they will kick the can down the road again in june,then the can will be to beat up to kick anymore,and they better put it in a recycle bin and not in a garbage can!! I agree,doesn’t matter.

    Comment by Laddy — May 19, 2016 @ 6:37 am

  7. Never thought I’d see CXO this low again.Time to buy.In two weeks,this will likely see 0.50.The whole chart needed to be reset.Now,it has been and the stock movement will be much stronger for it.

    Comment by robinandthe7hoods — May 19, 2016 @ 7:27 am

  8. Two levels of CXO support, robinandthe7hoods – the financing price + 30 cents…tremendous opportunity at these levels.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 19, 2016 @ 7:29 am

  9. Jon/Laddy
    I would not underestimate what the US Govt will do or go to to protect the Dollar, while I agree that whatever they do try to do will not work in the long run it could cause some short term pain, you know they are in bed with Morgan Stanley and others and will throw all they have at trying to keep the gold price down thru manipulation and shorting, I hope this is finally the time that those crooks finally get over run by the physical and have to cover all the paper… we shall see, agree buy the dips… I think we will see it re test the low before we go onto higher levels, just my opinion… which is not worth anything.

    Comment by Greg — May 19, 2016 @ 9:01 am

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