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November 4, 2015

BMR Morning Market Musings

Gold has traded between $1,111 and $1,122 so far today…as of 9:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,113…Silver has retreated 13 cents to $15.13…Copper is flat at $2.34…Crude Oil is off $1.39 a barrel to $46.51 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped three-quarters of a point 97.93, just slightly below key resistance at 98

Glencore, one of the world’s largest commodities traders and producers, said today it will be cutting its Copper output more sharply than expected…the company is now planning to reduce production by 455,000 tons by the end of 2017, up from a previously announced figure of 400,000 tons…according to analysts at Commerzbank, this equates to 2.2% of global Copper production last year…

Glencore’s announcement is the latest from some of the world’s big Copper producers…Freeport-McMoRan (FCX, NYSE) recently announced 40,000-tons per year cutback at its Sierrita Copper mine in Arizona while Codelco from Chile has at least significantly scaled back its investment plans.  “This suggests that the global Copper market will tighten noticeably,” analysts at Commerzbank said in a report…meanwhile, Glencore has sold a share of its future Silver output in a deal that includes a $900 million upfront payment as the company works to cut its $30 billion debt pile by about one-third amid weak commodity prices…

U.S. private sector job gains edged lower in October, with companies adding 182,000 new positions as economic growth cooled, according to a report this morning from ADP and Moody’s Analytics…the growth actually was a shade better than the 180,000 expected, according to FactSet, but was in keeping with a reduced pace of employment growth across the U.S. economy….the total declined from 190,000 in September, a number that in itself was revised lower from the originally reported 200,000

Friday’s October U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department will be the week’s data highlight…the key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up around 185,000 in October, following a rise of 142,000 jobs in September…

In today’s Morning Musings

1.  Technical breakout looming in Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V)…

2.  Two possible paths for Crude Oil…

3.  An interesting chart for Americas Petrogas (BOE, TSX-V)…

4.  Potential trading opportunity in a non-resource play…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

69 Comments

  1. DBV and GGI are both technically looking very good and both have drill results to come….a good Christmas for shareholders? Stay tuned…

    Comment by DDD4 — November 4, 2015 @ 10:31 am

  2. DBV appears to be picking up some momentum today – perhaps the long awaited news release today or tomorrow?!?

    Comment by ChetBaker — November 4, 2015 @ 11:10 am

  3. Sure hope so , I’ve almost got an ulcer waiting to see what’s up . And couldn’t seize the opportunity when they were so cheap . Anything positive would really be a nice , way to cap the year !

    Comment by T — November 4, 2015 @ 11:13 am

  4. jon,it must be a little frustrating, when i dont know how many times you have clearly stated that drilling can be done year round at the shesly,winter is not an issue,and they dont need a sheraton hotel to live in,takes a few days to winterize,i know the area as well, no big deal,so lets put the winter thing to rest once and forall, if they want to drill in the winter,they will…….whoever.

    Comment by tombc — November 4, 2015 @ 12:05 pm

  5. GGI- having a hard time breaking through 0.14. What will it take other than great results from the lab>?

    Comment by 02charoc — November 4, 2015 @ 12:17 pm

  6. CRS ans EXX are excellent buys today and tomorrow.Flow rates from their first well in Runnels County,Texas coming either tomorrow,Friday or Monday as per the CEO.Rumours are it’s a big one.

    Comment by robinandthe7hoods — November 4, 2015 @ 12:59 pm

  7. It will take td to stop selling ggi in order to break 14 cents. @#$%&

    Comment by tony t — November 4, 2015 @ 1:19 pm

  8. Tombc- put to rest the winter drilling? This is a vital piece of information and one which will make the difference between sustained momentum and stop of momentum! Do you know what happens to juniors after they stop drilling?

    Yes, GGI has Mexico but as we all know the market doesn’t seem to care much for it right now and results from there seem to take an extremely long time to put out.

    I’m sure this item is playing a big part in its inability to move up. I sold because of the uncertainty. If they stop drilling for winter watch what happens with the SP and the price has peaked following the last set of drill results….just be ready to sell if you want to preserve your capital…..

    When they do confirm that winter drilling will happen I will reconsider buying my shares back.

    Comment by DDD4 — November 4, 2015 @ 1:32 pm

  9. Tom, based on Tuesday’s news, and all the evidence to date, let’s just say that GGI has a “tiger by the tail” at the Grizzly. When you are into a discovery, you don’t stop. You keep drilling. Does someone here think Regoci doesn’t understand that? He kept drilling at Rodadero through a difficult rainy season in 2014. My money is on GGI making an important new grassroots drilling discovery at the Grizzly and Regoci, who fully understands the markets, plus the scale of the Grizzly and the district, building on that momentum BIG-TIME.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 4, 2015 @ 1:51 pm

  10. Taking a chance waiting for the announcement of winter drilling…JMHO

    Comment by weatheritout — November 4, 2015 @ 1:51 pm

  11. It’s good to hear everyone’s opinion without bashing or degrading…refreshing from the sideshow discussions that can start on stockhouse

    Comment by weatheritout — November 4, 2015 @ 2:03 pm

  12. Jon…put that interview out early tomorrow, I start work at 7..Will give me something interesting to watch with morning coffee 🙂

    Comment by weatheritout — November 4, 2015 @ 2:12 pm

  13. DDD4 – I’m assuming you have been selling GGI recently?

    Comment by 02charoc — November 4, 2015 @ 2:49 pm

  14. Just bringing somethink up to think about regarding the grizzly, in june of this year, GGI announce that they acquired the 14 squared km golden bear claims (wolverine) http://minfile.gov.bc.ca/Summary.aspx?minfilno=104J++059 on their growing understanding of the area. At that point i was a bit frustated that they had claims to a package 286 sq km they didn’t even drill once.

    Why would they do such a move? we don’t care about a 8m x 1m high sulphide vein returning 4 ounce per tonne gold!

    In this area, we have the same rock unit than in other part of the district. I’ve did some DD on high sulphide ephitermal gold deposit. They can be huge and since everything at grizzly is big this could or will be the surface expression of somethink substantial.

    Watch on Youtube… “Ore deposits: Epithermal Deposits [Part 5]”

    Comment by Martin — November 4, 2015 @ 2:50 pm

  15. Jon, what could be the range of grade cu/au the last core photo could provide?

    Comment by Martin — November 4, 2015 @ 3:13 pm

  16. weatherout, I second your opinion. I used to post on stockhouse but it has become a place for people to act like idiots when a stock is in play so I gave up. People should be able to disagree without being disagreeable. I do agree with DDD4 that momentum will slow down for GGI if they don’t drill in the winter. I am guessing the assay results from the 1st few holes will help them make that decision.

    Comment by Danny — November 4, 2015 @ 3:48 pm

  17. Yes, if the drill results are encouraging/good I’m pretty sure they will drill through winter but that isn’t a given until it comes from the company…….maybe they will want to prioritize Mexican properties instead. If they decide to drill during winter it will be the biggest confirmation (other than actual results) that they are onto something possibly big. I do hope they continue drilling and if they do, I will become a shareholder again but with a much bigger position.

    The company kept saying that they would go drill Grizzly but it took a while before they put the plan into action. What seems to have convinced them to actual drill it is the fact that they would lose the $1.4 million in tax credits from the FT shares at the end of the year. If it wasn’t for this, would they actually be there right now considering they intended to drill it much earlier than this year? If they’re drilling now to use up the $1.4 million before the end of the year, my fear is that with encouraging results they may not continue drilling through winter unless the results are very good. This is the reason I sold. I want a confirmation that they won’t stop in a month because I know what will happen when drilling stops and the excitement temporarily ends until drilling resumes. There is a reason why the stock price isn’t reacting like people think it should and I think this uncertainty is a big factor along with the crappy market for juniors. Yes, they have Mexican properties but this isn’t what excites the market right now and isn’t what will make shareholders quick riches.

    Comment by DDD4 — November 4, 2015 @ 5:21 pm

  18. They would just need an XRF Analyzer to make that decision.The lab results are to make it official.I’ll be interested to hear the interview tomorrow.And I agree.This is a nice change from Stockhouse.
    Jon and John run a good site.The comments section are a step above all other sites of this nature.The interaction between the subscribers and the writers is big part of the success here.

    Comment by robinandthe7hoods — November 4, 2015 @ 5:39 pm

  19. Two new pics – 250 meter mark – very impressive.

    See Photo Gallery in Garibaldi Resources website…

    Comment by Dan1 — November 4, 2015 @ 5:56 pm

  20. These look good!

    Comment by DDD4 — November 4, 2015 @ 6:07 pm

  21. Wow could this be From the step out hole!!!

    I think i will become crazy!!

    Comment by Martin — November 4, 2015 @ 6:10 pm

  22. Is that Bornite? i am color blind loll!

    Comment by Martin — November 4, 2015 @ 6:23 pm

  23. Hey gang – Had a chance to catch up tonight on goings on. Nice pic of GGI core but I must admit I do not understand the mineralization and its association to possible gold content. I am definitely not the Geologist.

    I have not heard anything new from EQT but assays possibly less than 2 weeks. I have noticed the discussion of DBV and GGI, quite frankly It is wise to me to own both. I do not have a position in DBV at this time.

    I am hearing good things on GGI. Flow rates should be in no later than Monday on CRS, this is one to watch. Good results and it runs big, poor results and you get shaved 50%. I do not own CRS and would rather chase if it is warranted. I am not accustomed to chasing but on oil stocks it can pay off, one just has to look at Junex. I would be careful with PE right now. I talked to IR late today and confirmed that 12 million warrants just became free trading. That is a heavy load. DVN is looking good and about to make a run here, how high is the question. If GGI cores are good, it goes higher than DVN for sure.

    Comment by dave — November 4, 2015 @ 6:25 pm

  24. Pretty funky stuff, for sure. Gentlemen, prepare to start your engines…the race begins very shortly, IMHO.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 4, 2015 @ 6:30 pm

  25. I wish I had a magnifying glass and see the core closely!

    Comment by Guy Delisle — November 4, 2015 @ 6:45 pm

  26. Not sure what color Bornite is but these cores have a blue tint. Any geos here can comment? In the mean time I will google it.

    Comment by Dan1 — November 4, 2015 @ 6:52 pm

  27. Core are magnetite !

    Comment by Guy Delisle — November 4, 2015 @ 7:06 pm

  28. @dave
    Does the silence from eqt worry you? They have been actively tweeting about their upcoming conferences but that’s about it. I’m wondering if the silence and lack of promotion is telling of disappointment in the field?

    Comment by Seamus — November 4, 2015 @ 7:14 pm

  29. Ddd4, nothing intended, if you don’t want to own ggi because of uncertainty for winter drilling that’s up to you,just wanted to point out that it can be done in that area, but the way things are looking at this point, they may be preparing for just that, and yes Jon I agree, we’ve waited a long time for this, Swiss cheese that valley. Looking good so far….

    Comment by Tombc — November 4, 2015 @ 7:21 pm

  30. DDD4, don’t you think it is possible that if the results are good, the SP will increase without any announcement of winter drilling? That would be the time to take some profits.

    If they do not drill in winter, then you could well be correct that the SP will drift lower, unless something good comes out of Mexico.

    Martin, my guess is that they are currently drilling hole 3 at the same target as holes 1 and 2. I also guess that hole 4 will be at the step out target.

    Comment by Tom UK — November 4, 2015 @ 8:24 pm

  31. Seamus – Knowing why the silence on EQT doesn’t worry me, but at the same time I am not happy how the news release drifted the stock lower. I wish that the last NR would have been worded different.

    You have to understand why Kyler decided not to post pics of the core. There was so much promotion on EQT by many letter writers even here in the U.S. and it was causing very high volume on a daily basis. If Kyler put pics of core on the websight when we were trading at .20 and the speculation rose the share price to maybe .40 or .50, and then assays came out but did not live up to the share price at that level, then the share price would have tanked. However, the way it was handled made the share price drift down from the .20 level. This is a swing for the fences scenerio here. The odds are with them to find something, but we don’t know if or what they found. It looks like we won’t know until the assay results. Kyler has said that he wants the drills to do the talking, so we shall see.

    Comment by dave — November 4, 2015 @ 8:56 pm

  32. MJ stocks will all have a selloff today or Friday latest.They’re all badly overbought right now.That money will enter into CRS and EXX by Friday or Monday at the bell as the flow rates for these two will be PRed by Monday morning before the bell.
    Both are stuck in a very tight range at the moment.A ton of sideline money and money looking to exit the MJ stocks will be coming into CRS and EXX,as that is a sure bet.
    If the rates aren’t released today or Friday,which could happen if they get them,they will be guaranteed Monday morning as per the CEO.Just a heads up for those not following that play.
    GGI looking good,DBV won’t be far behind.

    Comment by robinandthe7hoods — November 4, 2015 @ 11:54 pm

  33. Jmo,but I’m predicting fast buying in CGC and OGI this morning,then a stall and a hard selloff when everybody figures out the run is done for now.

    Comment by robinandthe7hoods — November 5, 2015 @ 12:12 am

  34. Waaaayyy oversold stock is NPH.v.No bad news to see.This is one to buy right now.You’re getting it at rock bottom.Only good things coming for this stock.

    Comment by robinandthe7hoods — November 5, 2015 @ 12:21 am

  35. Wow, that’s a nice core pic!! I really like the blue tinge to the core. Could very well have a little hint of bornite (which is also blueish). Assays will tell the real truth, but these core pics are looking better and better!!

    Comment by Tony T — November 5, 2015 @ 4:27 am

  36. To further my point of blueish tone, look at the first core pics they posted. Lots of grey looking stuff. Now compare it to the recently posted pics….that ore looks a lot sweeter. If this stuff is bornite, look out!!!

    Comment by Tony T — November 5, 2015 @ 4:31 am

  37. GGI – smells like an iron oxide copper gold ore deposits – can be very large with significant gold copper values – very profitable.

    Comment by FrankNS — November 5, 2015 @ 4:32 am

  38. I have meetings on surface today. I”ll hit up the geo and diamond drilling department and ask them what they think of the core pics. I”ll report anything they say.

    Ok, enough from me this morning. Have a good day guys!!

    Comment by Tony T — November 5, 2015 @ 4:34 am

  39. Make sense Tom, new high today, .017 at the belt, anyway at these level share price is not issues i am thinking more in term of market cap for GGI:-)

    Comment by Martin — November 5, 2015 @ 4:43 am

  40. Tom UK- indeed, if the results are good the SP will move up even without winter drilling. You may have missed my previous posts…..I posted the reasons why I sold GGI and bought more DBV….in a nutshell….similar mkt cap, same price but I feel that DBV is undervalued based on the drilling it has done and the fact that its stock price is still down due to the Chris Day Saga. Also, DBV has holes to announce and most importantly, they plan on drilling through winter with a break at Christmas. I expect DBV’s stock price to recover once the Chris Day Saga is over and they go up to resume drilling…..I just feel that DBV is more undervalued and ready to recover soon. I like GGI’s potential and if they do extent drilling then I will buy back. If I didn’t see the opportunity in DBV I wouldn’t have sold my GGI and probably would have added more by now….

    Comment by DDD4 — November 5, 2015 @ 4:59 am

  41. I agree Martin, now is the time for Regoci to prove himself as a strategist. He should know how the market is likely to react to whatever NRs he will be putting out. Maybe news from Mexico has been held back until such a time it can be used to supplement good news from the Grizzly. Momentum will be important and he will want to minimise dilution if and when he does a PP.

    Comment by Tom UK — November 5, 2015 @ 5:06 am

  42. Cheers DDD4, I know you have a large holding in DBV which is why I am surprised you added to it at the expense of your GGI holding. At this time, holding both is the best strategy IMO, but we may disagree on the weighting 🙂

    DBV must surely make an announcement of some sort soon and the drill results will not be far behind.

    Comment by Tom UK — November 5, 2015 @ 5:10 am

  43. Outstanding shares of GGI much less than DBV. That will have some bearing on the SP going forward.

    Comment by Dan — November 5, 2015 @ 5:29 am

  44. What I can see from the pictures of GGI is that there are many magnetite and very few calchopyrite, which tells me that gold is present as copper

    Comment by Guy Delisle — November 5, 2015 @ 5:36 am

  45. Certainly plenty of magnetite and lots of high-temperature evidence in this core, Guy, which are critical aspects.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 5, 2015 @ 5:39 am

  46. Dan- what is more important here is the float- one has a smaller float….this will help the stock price move up easier once under heavy buying/accumulation….

    Comment by DDD4 — November 5, 2015 @ 5:41 am

  47. I thought the floats were both just over 60mil. Has DBV got a lot more options that could be exercised giving a larger fully diluted share count?

    Comment by Tom UK — November 5, 2015 @ 5:52 am

  48. float is what’s available to trade……outstanding shares minus insider holdings (assuming they aren’t going to sell) and other non-insiders that are strong hands and in for the longer term.

    Comment by DDD4 — November 5, 2015 @ 6:09 am

  49. dvn.v receives bulk sample permit and update on progress of amended preliminary economic assessment

    Comment by kelly — November 5, 2015 @ 6:40 am

  50. A few huge cross trades on DVN, but so far market is not budging too much, probably cause its just a bulk sample permit and pea is a month away.

    Comment by dave — November 5, 2015 @ 7:00 am

  51. NSP has had a nice move up from the bottom, but it may be time to cool off a little.

    Comment by dave — November 5, 2015 @ 7:03 am

  52. Service note for Pro subscribers…check your emails for an important Special Advisory by tomorrow morning, followed by a broader scale eAlert over the weekend.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 5, 2015 @ 7:05 am

  53. We are due for a news from DBV ! What is the situation with Chad Day !

    Comment by Guy Delisle — November 5, 2015 @ 7:12 am

  54. I wouldn’t be wasting time worrying about Chad Day, Guy. I can’t emphasize this enough – focus on the Land Use Plan, and the permits. The greatly increasing importance of the Sheslay district to B.C.’s mining and exploration sector is well understood by the highest officials in the B.C. government. And the Tahltan are certainly enjoying the work opportunities at the Grizzly and the paychecks they’re receiving. The same situation would apply at the Hat now, the way things have evolved through the end of October.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 5, 2015 @ 7:22 am

  55. Re DBV. I think that they have to still split core and send to be assayed do they not?

    Comment by charleybarley — November 5, 2015 @ 7:27 am

  56. Yes they do, that’s my understanding.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 5, 2015 @ 7:29 am

  57. Yes…still have remainder of H23, the complete h24 an down to 270m for h25 if my memory is correct……all of which played a big reason why Chad Day did what he did….I expect the results will prove what they have uncovering….

    Comment by DDD4 — November 5, 2015 @ 7:33 am

  58. JON,today we know that we are not going court and that there will be no injunction. Rumored we await a letter from Chad Day ???

    Comment by Guy Delisle — November 5, 2015 @ 7:33 am

  59. Guy, I’m looking at the broad picture, which was outlined in our most recent Sunday Sizzler Report…I see DBV in a position of great strength re: the CD situation…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 5, 2015 @ 7:42 am

  60. Court for damages and injunction are two different items. The court for damages is postponed and there are discussion to not use the injunction route…..we are waiting for the results of discussions. CD seems to want to avoid the injunction route as it’s bad publicity an he has already taken a lot of heat from his people for what he did….a friendly agreement is definitely better for everyone….

    Comment by DDD4 — November 5, 2015 @ 7:50 am

  61. They had the remaining 250 metres of hole H-23 which were pending to be released.Imo,these have been done for a while,and waiting for all this to be resolved and they will use the results to help pop the stock.
    That will be 2 PRs to release.One,that the dispute has been resolved.Then,after that,another one with the results of hole H-23 that will get the stock at least back to .18,if not higher.PP after that is my guess for winter drilling.If a major is still sniffing around as has been rumoured before this dispute,I won’t be surprised to see a partnership buy-in,seeing that GGI is having success too.The time is ripe,while the getting in is cheap.
    DBV could be in for a major upswing soon.

    Comment by robinandthe7hoods — November 5, 2015 @ 7:51 am

  62. The selloff in CGC and OGI is beginning.

    Comment by robinandthe7hoods — November 5, 2015 @ 7:53 am

  63. Robinandthe7hoods….this is why I have recently added more DBV…..glad others see the potential for a quick pop in stock price….

    Comment by DDD4 — November 5, 2015 @ 8:22 am

  64. EQT not looking healthy…..lets see if support comes in…

    Comment by DDD4 — November 5, 2015 @ 9:02 am

  65. Im still a shareholder of GGI and EQT but I feel that ive missed so many other opportunities holding these. I hope i am wrong and rewarded in the near future for hanging on.

    Comment by 02charoc — November 5, 2015 @ 9:35 am

  66. I follow many stocks in my 9 portfolios. Almost all red or even. not a nice day here today.

    Comment by dave — November 5, 2015 @ 9:37 am

  67. Pure Energy – Interesting appointment today by PE. Here is an excerpt from news release: Robert Mintak, Pure Energy CEO, commented “We are very pleased to have Patrick join the Pure Energy team. He brings significant lithium industry credentials and connections and is a seasoned negotiator, having helped to forge all manner of joint ventures, investments, strategic partnerships, and acquisitions. This technical and business experience will contribute greatly to the successful execution of Pure Energy’s project development strategies.”
    For full new release:
    Read on StockWatch “PURE ENERGY APPOINTS PATRICK HIGHSMITH TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS”… Nov. 5, 2015

    Comment by vepper — November 5, 2015 @ 9:47 am

  68. EQT
    getting a bit annoyed with how it is being handled, all this time
    and $$ flying and promoting the co. Seems a bit over the top to me!
    Anything they are going to say is available online. I thought there was
    to be an update after the PP closing? I still think they should get a
    hit on at least 1 of 12 holes, they would look foolish doing all this
    promo to come up empty, which is why I am still positive.

    Comment by Bob — November 5, 2015 @ 9:55 am

  69. Bob – I agree with you, they should get a hit on something. Sometimes its when you least expect it a stock pops. I have heard Mr. Shortie is in at .09, so it cant go much lower without him covering I would imagine.

    Vepper – I posted last night that PE has 12 million warrants that have come free trading. This was confirmed by IR. I would be careful with this one as we enter tax loss selling season.

    Comment by dave — November 5, 2015 @ 10:37 am

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