Gold has traded between $1,147 and $1,170 so far today as it hit the $1,150 target area…as of 9:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $14 an ounce at $1,156…if $1,150 support doesn’t hold, bullion will likely test the bottom of a downsloping channel around $1,100…Silver is off 75 cents to $15.00…Copper has tumbled 13 cents to $2.40…Crude Oil is 87 cents lower at $51.66 while the U.S. Dollar Index has surged two-thirds of a point to 96.98…
Not that the problems in Greece should be minimized, but the mainstream media’s fixation on Athens is overshadowing more important issues…keep in mind that the population of that country is slightly less than the state of Ohio’s, while its GDP is just a little bit bigger than the economies of Kazakhstan, Algeria and Qatar…investors should be more concerned about what’s happening in China as developments there (slowing economy, troubled equity markets) could have major reverberations across the globe which is why Crude Oil and Copper are suffering this week…Fed policy is likely to be impacted – i.e., no rate hike in 2015…central banks may have to bring out even bigger fire hoses…
The Shanghai Composite (home to many larger, established Chinese companies) and the riskier Shenzhen Composite have both plunged about 30% from their highs due to legitimate concerns that Chinese stocks – thanks in large part to government actions/manipulations – got caught up in a bubble like the NASDAQ did in 1999-2000…what’s worse, perhaps, is how Chinese authorities are now handling the market turmoil…they are looking increasingly desperate but maybe they’ll pull off some magic…
John’s charts correctly called a market top for the Shanghai just above 5000, and flashed a huge warning signal recently when that index fell below an upsloping channel in place since last summer…where the bottom will be is hard to predict but the Shanghai is going lower, and that in turn could also negatively impact the Chinese economy…there seems to be little doubt that Chinese authorities were fueling the stock rally in hopes of creating a broad-based “wealth effect” to give the economy a lift – now things have gone into reverse and they’re scrambling…how effective they’ll be at “fixing” things remains to be seen…
On Saturday, Beijing took its most decisive action yet, suspending initial public offerings and establishing a market-stabilization fund to spur stock purchases…the Chinese central bank also pledged to provide funding to support brokeragesâ margin finance operations that allow investors to borrow cash to buy stocks – exactly what investors shouldn’t be doing…the Shanghai index responded with a 2.4% gain on Monday but backed off a little in volatile trading today…
To what extent will China go to prop up its economy and save its equity markets from further declines?…we’ll soon find out…
Margin buying more than doubled this year as the Shanghai surged nearly 2000 points or more than 50%…outstanding margin loans reached a record 2.27 trillion yuan as of June 18, before dropping to 1.91 trillion yuan as of Friday, July 3…margin loans stood at 1.03 trillion yuan at the start of this year…more “unwinding” of margin debt likely needs to occur…
Some Chinese companies have simply decided it’s easier to try and ride out the market storm by asking for a trading halt for supposedly “valid” reasons…can you imagine that happening in North America?…over 700 firms listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – equivalent to around a quarter of the companies on the 2 exchanges – have issued requests to suspend trading or extend trading halts in the past few weeks…unbelievable…
These aren’t welcome developments at a time when China is trying to further increase its stature in the global economy and expand the use of its currency, increasingly backed by Gold…
Crude Oil Update
The problems in China, coupled with the ongoing global Oil glut, caused WTIC to break below an important support band this morning between $52 and $54, though this was intra-day and requires confirmation…the 50-day moving average (SMA) is starting to roll over after climbing since late March – not a positive sign…what this all means is that we could see Crude prices again test the low-to-mid $40‘s (significant stimulus for Oil-importing nations)…WTIC is definitely vulnerable at the moment…notice how the nearly 50% rally failed repeatedly to get through the low $60‘s, just beneath the still-declining 200-day SMA…$52 is a key level the market must hold…
Canada’s “Greece” – Ontario Gets Credit-Rating Downgrade
Ontarioâs long-term credit rating has been downgraded by Standard and Poorâs after years of warnings that the province needed to control its spending…
The long-term rating was lowered from AA- to A+, but Ontarioâs short-term A-1+ rating was affirmed and its outlook remains stable…that means there will be few short-term costs to the provincial treasury but in the long-run the downgrade could drive up Ontarioâs borrowing rate when interest payments already eat up the third largest chunk of its $132-billion budget (servicing that debt this fiscal year – just the interest on the debt – will cost Ontario a whopping $11.4 billion)…
âOntario has been slow to fully roll out the spending controls and revenue measures needed to eliminate its structural operating deficit, which has caused its tax-supported debt level to approximately double since fiscal 2008,â S&Pâs ratings release states, suggesting the government has not been aggressive enough in cutting spending. It also notes that âOntario is a sustained and projected under-performer on its budgetary performance and debt burden versus domestic and international peers.â
Today’s Equity Markets
Asia
China’s Shanghai Composite closed 48 points lower overnight at 3728…nearest Fib. and chart support is 3400 (very important area)…Japan’s Nikkei performed well, climbing 264 points or 1.3% to finish at 20377…
Europe
European markets closed sharply lower today due to China concerns and the perception that Greece’s negotiations with its creditors will drag on…
Euro Chart Update
The euro is at a critical point after not being able to sustain a breakout (so far at least) on this 1.5-year weekly chart…the next few days could be pivotal…Fib. support is 109.68, almost exactly where the euro is trading at this morning…
North America
The Dow has fallen 117 points as of 9:00 am Pacific…in Toronto, the TSX, weighed down by lower commodity prices, is off 119 points while the Venture has tumbled 12 points to 651 and an RSI(2) low extreme…Fission Uranium (FCU, TSX-V) is merging with Denison Mines Corp. (DML, TSX) in a deal that creates a clear-cut leader among the emerging companies operating in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin…under the terms of the deal, Denison will exchange 1.26 of its shares for each Fission share, valuing Fission at $425 million (or $1.10 a share) based on yesterday’s closing prices…Denison and Fission shareholders will each own half the company after the merger, which will be named Denison Energy Corp. with mining tycoon Lukas Lundin as chairman…FCU is up 2 pennies at 99 cents as of 9:00 am Pacific…
NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE, TSX-V) Update
NexGen Energy (NXE, TSX-V) is developing its own world class Uranium asset with a growing high-grade discovery at its Rook 1 Project where 5 rigs are now turning as part of a 25,000-m, $9 million summer drill program that commenced 1 month ago…current overall market weakness is opening new opportunities here with NXE now trading in the mid-70‘s after hitting a recent all-time high of 90 cents (June 29)…exceptional support at 60 cents but whether that kind of a bargain will materialize is very wishful thinking, though certainly possible in the event of a “market panic”…
NXE is unchanged at 75 cents as of 9:00 am Pacific…
TSX Gold Index Update
The TSX Gold Index is under pressure this morning, trading around 150, but investors may seek safety in strong Gold producers in the coming weeks – especially Canadian-based ones who are benefiting from fresh weakness in the loonie and Crude prices (certain smaller producers like Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) and Claude Resources (CRJ, TSX), which came out with positive news this morning, are looking particularly attractive)…
Below is an updated 5-year weekly TSX Gold Index chart that shows a bullish rounding bottom pattern along with higher lows in the RSI(14)…this is a favorable set-up for a potentially powerful move to the upside (surprising many) at some point during this 2nd half of 2015…
Note:Â John, Terry and Jon do not hold share positions in FCU, DML, NXE, RIC or CRJ.
It would appear that the venture’s path of least resistance is down (not up)and the 1000+ bear market days continues. Maybe my grandkids will get to see a return on my investment seeing how the venture has no capital flowing into it but rather out.
Comment by tony T — July 7, 2015 @ 8:13 am
08 ggi are gone its a start I guess / hope
Comment by brian — July 7, 2015 @ 8:41 am
spoke too soon someone sold backinto the .08
Comment by brian — July 7, 2015 @ 8:47 am
GGI – don’t kid yourself, we may still see that .05 – House 57 is shorting it.
Comment by dave — July 7, 2015 @ 9:28 am
lol. House 57 – that isn’t you is it, Dave? Any shorting of DBV or GGI at current levels could prove to be as foolish as going long on margin on the Shanghai at 5000. 1% Cu in hole 23 and a few hundred meters of sweet stuff in #24 would hang any shorts – we don’t want that to happen to you, Dave. GGI and DBV have never attracted much shorting interest – I doubt they would now.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 7, 2015 @ 9:42 am
It the trend continues, one probably has a long time to short DBV! H23 was completed over 7 months ago and if the same BS happens with H24 and they bunch both H23 & H24 together then we won’t see anything until the new year!
They have the best techical team but getting 250m from the lab seems to be a circus act.
Jon- you have been very quiet about H23. From the interviews, does it sound like they are grouping H23 & H24 together? Why is it taking so long? Who is the incompetant side and can’t get 250m of core done in a timely manner? When it comes to the handling of H23 I don’t have much good to say about DBV…..
Comment by d4 — July 7, 2015 @ 10:08 am
I’m still waiting for those fireworks in the Sheslay Valley that some expected to happen last week or so…..have they been delayed due to bad weather?
Anon made some bold predictions and they never happened then he disappeared…..lol
Comment by d4 — July 7, 2015 @ 11:00 am
I think they did, D4, as 24 got rolling…we just weren’t there to see it…I’m anxious to get up there…
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 7, 2015 @ 11:41 am
Commodities going down the toilet. Follow Dr. Copper; he’s not painting a pretty picture. According to marketwatch, over 20% of listed China stocks were halted on Tuesday. This is going to get ugly. China’s 1929-style crash is landing.
Comment by chris — July 7, 2015 @ 12:23 pm
China has a problem to fix, no question, Chris. But they could also bring out the biggest fire hose you’ve ever seen. Central banks could really step up their aggressiveness shortly. Highly unlikely now that we’ll see a Fed rate hike in 2015, not with international developments.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 7, 2015 @ 12:38 pm
Jon -Do you use Elliott Wave analysts ? Do you think wave 5 is completed in the Shanghai exchange ?
Comment by Les — July 7, 2015 @ 1:01 pm
GBB comments?
Comment by Mike — July 7, 2015 @ 1:46 pm
Jon- I don’t think there were fireworks in the Valley, I think it was Farshad using flares to try to find the missing H23 core!
During the afternoon you spent with Dr Razique he must of said something about H23….do you have ANY info on the long over due H23 core? Do they plan to batch it with H24 or separately? If the batch it with H24 we won’t see it until the new year!
Comment by D4 — July 7, 2015 @ 2:04 pm
Dave, do you seriously think someone is shorting GGI at these prices? How much upside could there possibly be to shorting GGI right now. They would be a little late to the party and taking on a lot of risk should some positive developments happen. Just doesn’t make sense to me.
Comment by Danny — July 7, 2015 @ 2:57 pm
Jon. I have been a BMR subscriber for a long time. Haven’t received the DBV email alert yet. Are you still having technical issues?
Comment by Dan — July 7, 2015 @ 3:16 pm
BMR. – Is the eAlert being sent out today with the next segment interview with Dr. Razique ?
Comment by Les — July 7, 2015 @ 3:32 pm
Hi Les, no. The 2nd video segment with Dr. Razique, exclusive to our eAlert subscribers, is being sent out tomorrow (late afternoon, early evening).
It’s a very educational piece of raw footage focussed on the Anomaly A zone, covering geochem and geology, and why he’s convinced this is such a dynamic area, linked with the Lisle Zone.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 7, 2015 @ 4:11 pm
Thank you for the additional shares in GGI today and at least we stayed in the green. Now that today’s carnage is over feel free to start issuing the market with a news release or so will you Steve.
Comment by Andrew — July 7, 2015 @ 4:47 pm
Jon – Are you kidding me, I would NEVER short any stock. I have always heard house 57 is a shorter though. I know that I have seen them on the buy side when stocks were skyrocketing, obviously they were covering.
Comment by dave — July 7, 2015 @ 5:19 pm
D4 one can only speculate as to what the hold up is on hole 23 a – the hole is super good which is highly unlikely as they would have resumed drilling to greater depth if grades were super. b . Lab delays is way beyond reasonable time but who knows . c . It was stated there was visual minerization in the sample and I would think it would be similar to other parts but it may have ” petered ” out as it is near the edge of the zone , a very good reason to not resume drilling hole 23. d. Farshad has been swamped with the past few weeks of activity and was hell bent to start drilling again , just include it with the next batch. I’m sure everyone can come up with a few more . Patience , it is far more important that the drill is turning in an area picked by one of the best teams in the world . The coming video should shed some light on the drilling program.
Comment by Les — July 7, 2015 @ 5:20 pm
Danny – I spoke to a very intelligent individual last week. I can’t mention a name but he actually controlled one of the seats a while back. We talked for an hour. I wanted to find out just how the venture worked. Our conversation left me bewildered.
Yes, GGI can be shorted right now. Yes, there are houses that would do this right now. No, they would not be stupid for doing it. Not the way it is done. I now understand the venture like I never have before. And I can honestly say that it does not give me any advantage trading over you. I can’t see no more behind the scenes than you can. My only advantage is to watch the houses and see who is flipping.
Comment by dave — July 7, 2015 @ 5:28 pm
Almost any stock can be shorted, Dave, though short traders in this sector focus on the big boys and the leveraged ETF’s where the best money can be made thanks to massive liquidity – look at the short positions in many of the bigger Gold producers right now. And the shorts aren’t always right. If you look at Gold, the commercials usually get it right but the general crowd doesn’t. We see that time and again.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 7, 2015 @ 5:36 pm
I used to work in the industry and would sometimes help clients place orders on the short side so I know full well that it goes on. I just don’t see GGI as an attractive candidate for shorting at these prices. And you are right Jon, the general crowd usually gets it wrong.
Comment by Danny — July 7, 2015 @ 5:59 pm
Gbb?
Comment by Marc — July 7, 2015 @ 7:40 pm
Dbv trade halt.
Comment by Tombc — July 8, 2015 @ 4:28 am
DBV halted pending news! Let’s get it!
Comment by Sam — July 8, 2015 @ 4:28 am
Lets see what dbv has come up with.
Comment by dave — July 8, 2015 @ 4:37 am
I am sure h23 will suprise everyone……mkt thinks its not good because of the delay.
I think h23 will be very good…..we will soon see….assuming its news on h23!
Comment by d4 — July 8, 2015 @ 5:01 am
If DBV can just break that .18 resistance, its going to run. Yesterday was a solid black candle at the top range though, which is very bearish. Maybe news is good to defy the candle and chart.
Comment by dave — July 8, 2015 @ 5:05 am
I said it a long time ago and will say it again….I think h23 will be better than CXO’s glory hole.
Comment by d4 — July 8, 2015 @ 5:13 am
I don’t think DBV halted if the news is bad ! will halted all day ???
Comment by guy delisle — July 8, 2015 @ 5:14 am
Would be nice if H23 surpases the CXO glory hole d4, although I doubt we’ll come close to the same run CXO had (based on the markets these days). Dare to dream though!!! GLTA!
Comment by Steve A. — July 8, 2015 @ 6:00 am
Mining still too bad for a CXO situation. I am seeing that shift I talked about. Everything is cyclical and I have tried to get everyone to know this. A ton of money could have been made in the ones I mentioned this year so far. But I am seeing a shift. I think the metals bounce back in the fall. By next year, everyone will be jumping in to a stock with just the hint of a good hole. Its coming.
Comment by dave — July 8, 2015 @ 6:19 am
I have jumped into ABR as a trade or ? Richard l
Comment by richrd l — July 8, 2015 @ 6:33 am
The whole area could ignite including: GGI/ABR/AIX……DBV can get this market going!
Comment by STEVEN1 — July 8, 2015 @ 6:37 am
ABR has a great piece of property adjoining the Hat BUT the key for them is to raise some money first – they’ll be able to do that, I suspect, once things heat up more with DBV and GGI…so I believe there’s time on ABR and no need to rush in at the moment, DBV halt or not…better to wait IMHO and even pay a little more if necessary, when there’s more assurance…
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 8, 2015 @ 6:39 am
I agree Jon, a lot of overhang on ABR. Better choice would have been WRR. I do not like the way Management is handling the PR’s with WWR, but if the drill hits, it wont matter initially.
Comment by dave — July 8, 2015 @ 6:45 am
I can’t see DBV being halted over news release of hole 23 ! Makes no sence.
Comment by Les — July 8, 2015 @ 6:46 am
Cmon DBV, spit it out.
Comment by dave — July 8, 2015 @ 6:50 am
The market already knows the news, DBV showing a higher open on level 2
Comment by dave — July 8, 2015 @ 6:52 am
Again, Les, it could be a range of possibilities, from hole 23 results, something peculiar they have just hit in the new round of drilling (massive sulphides?), corporate developments (a major stepping up to the plate?), a Tahltan stuntâŚwho knows, we’re just guessing here…Farshad is leaving everyone in suspense with this one…keep in mind, if memory serves correct and for what it’s worth, DBV hasn’t issued drill results without a halt…
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 8, 2015 @ 6:53 am
Les, it makes sense if its earth shattering. News leak on strong news could have had this over .20 by now. Not fair to all investors.
Comment by dave — July 8, 2015 @ 6:54 am
Les….if its very good it does…..this is what I expect. There isn’t much else to announce and its very over due!
Comment by d4 — July 8, 2015 @ 6:54 am
Nothing better than a major stepping in but that seems a little early , but one never knows .
Comment by Les — July 8, 2015 @ 6:58 am
Buying opportunity coming if one of Jon’s hypothetical scenarios of a Tahltan stunt proves correct.
Comment by Jamie — July 8, 2015 @ 7:19 am
For what it’s worth I never got the email alert.
Comment by Ivan Borzinsky — July 8, 2015 @ 7:29 am
lol, maybe Farshad borrowed a chapter from the Chinese playbook and decided to sit out a bad overall market this week – the most unlikely scenario, of course, but couldn’t resist the comment…a little humor never hurts…
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 8, 2015 @ 7:35 am
Jamie – Jon’s comment about the Tahltan may not be off the wall , but one never knows . I thought all their issues were dealt with as they are doing the drilling. We should find out what this is all about soon enough. Good luck to all.
Comment by Les — July 8, 2015 @ 7:44 am
If the news wasn’t postive (ie. Tahltan issues) I doubt they would halt the stock…wouldn’t that just be put out in a regular news release? Thoughts?
Comment by Steve A. — July 8, 2015 @ 7:47 am
It has to be important for a halt, Steven, no question…not that the past is always the best guide, by I believe every time we’ve seen DBV drill results, there has been a halt…but from what I can recall, not during actual drilling…that’s what’s a little different about this occasion…
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 8, 2015 @ 7:51 am
Steve, they could halt the stock in any scenario with material news that could dramaticlly impact the market. In other words good or bad news.
Comment by Jamie — July 8, 2015 @ 7:53 am
There been no news of agreement Jon, reading from line 41 comment, Tahltan won’t sign, cause major disruption, halt drilling. As you have mentioned ” Tahltan stunt “????
Comment by Frank — July 8, 2015 @ 7:53 am
NYSE suspends trading in all securities..
Comment by Tombc — July 8, 2015 @ 7:54 am
Could this day get any crazier?
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 8, 2015 @ 7:58 am
Too soon for a major to step in as they would want to see results from hole 24 , but it could be a joint venture with a major for a peace of the pie with a chunk of money to drill a hundred holes to prove these anomalies. A major would want to remove a much risk a possible before doing a take over because of the soft commodities markets . Just my thoughts
Comment by Les — July 8, 2015 @ 8:05 am
I would agree, Les…good reason to believe that Antofagasta is at the top of the list…
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 8, 2015 @ 8:08 am
Went to the Google, nyse was halted 12 minutes ago no reason , could be a flash freeze like 2013 . Nasdaq still trading. Ohhh gosh the world is coming to an end . LOL
Comment by Les — July 8, 2015 @ 8:15 am
NYSE was halted due to a technical glitch. Computer issues only.
Comment by Jamie — July 8, 2015 @ 8:26 am
Now that we have the little issues like the NYSE out of the way , what’s happening DBV ? the suspense is killing everybody.
Comment by Les — July 8, 2015 @ 8:33 am
GGI – now house 14 is shorting it.
Comment by dave — July 8, 2015 @ 8:35 am
Dave, I’m curious. ITG sold 24,000 shares. Clarify please how you know that’s a “short”, especially in a stock where hardly any shorting has ever occurred, and certainly not at these levels. Pros don’t waste their time shorting $2,000 worth of stock in this kind of a situation. They have bigger fish to fry in much bigger oceans.
Comment by Jon - BMR — July 8, 2015 @ 8:38 am
Les I prefer an halt of 24 hours ! news tomorrow morning !
Comment by guy delisle — July 8, 2015 @ 8:43 am
I think its a safe bet that DBV will be halted at least the the 24hours due to the trading day being half over already. Don’t recall too many halted firms back trading with only a short time left in the day. Put news out after the bell and let everyone digest it tonight.
Comment by Jamie — July 8, 2015 @ 8:56 am
Yep , DBV most likely to open tomorrow. Let’s hear what the kerfluffel is all about.
Comment by Les — July 8, 2015 @ 9:13 am