Gold has traded between $1,150 and $1,165 so far today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $6 an ounce at $1,152…Silver is off 8 cents at $15.57…Copper is flat at $2.66…Crude Oil has tumbled $1.59 a barrel to $43.25 (see updated charts below), briefly dipping below $43 for the 1st time since March 2009, while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated more than half a point to 99.68 after hitting 100 Friday for the 1st time since April 2003…
The major event for financial markets this week will be the Fed meeting commencing tomorrow with the release of its monetary policy statement Wednesday…economists and analysts will be looking to see if the Fed will remove the word “patient” in reference to its first potential rate hike since 2006…even if it does, the general consensus seems to be that the Fed won’t make its move until September at the earliest…however, the anticipation of a rate hike continues to drive speculation in the U.S. dollar which is now at a 12-year high, and a surging greenback runs directly counter to the Fed’s strategy of kick-starting inflation…the dollar’s rally over the past 8 months has been its fastest in at least 40 years, and that’s not healthy…to us, what the Fed says or doesn’t say about the dollar on Wednesday will be key…this particular meeting will be followed by a Janet Yellen news conference…she has an opportunity to put the brakes, at least temporarily, on the rising dollar…will she or won’t she?…
Increasingly divergent monetary policies between the U.S. and the rest of the world has created another major breakout (above 96) in the Dollar Index over the last 2 weeks, and the next Fib. resistance level is 106…the combination of a runaway dollar and Crude Oil tumbling into the mid-$30’s would almost certainly create significant stresses in the global financial system, particularly in emerging markets…just 1 of the growing problems is the number of foreign companies who issued U.S. dollar debt in recent years (in the trillions of dollars) but can no longer get easy access to U.S. dollars from their central banks or can’t afford the interest costs now that the greenback is much stronger than when the debt was issued…
Will Apple Help Revive The Allure Of Gold?
Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of U.S. Global Investors, had these comments on Apple’s new watch as it pertains to Gold in his Weekly Investor Alert at www.usfunds.com: “The new Apple watch could revive the allure of Gold for young consumers. Apple, which called Gold “uniquely luxurious” in its advertising, has a history of swaying consumer tastes. U.S., U.K. and Italian demand for wearables made out of Gold has been cut in half over the past decade, according to data from the World Gold Council, as shoppers favored white-colored metals such as Silver and Platinum. Apple’s status as the arbiter of cool means its new $10,000 Gold watch and yellow iPhones and MacBooks may entice consumers to buy Gold wearables and ornaments again.”
Oil Update
The Oil price needs to drop to levels where demand and supply can come into balance…over-supply and demand both remain a problem even with WTIC trading in the mid-$40’s…there is hope on the horizon for a sustained recovery in prices but likely not until sometime during the second half of the year…
In its monthly report released today, OPEC said that U.S. Oil output may start declining toward the end of the year, while the group did increase its global demand estimate for 2015 by 50,000 barrels a day to 92.3 million bpd, projecting that almost half of that demand growth will come from China and the Middle East…
However, current fundamentals and technicals do call for lower prices during the 2nd quarter…global inventories continue to rise, and another bearish factor is the imminent prospect of a nuclear deal with Tehran that could allow for more Iranian Oil exports…
WTIC attempted but failed recently to gain traction above important resistance around $50…the declining 50-day moving average (SMA), currently $49, continues to exert downward pressure on Crude prices and must reverse to the upside before a sustained recovery can be expected…that could take a few more months…
WTIC 2-Year Weekly Chart
WTIC Long-Term Chart: Look Out Below!
As expected, WTIC staged a relief rally, jumping about 20% to alleviate unprecedented oversold conditions, and now it’s in the next wave down with the mid-$30’s as an obvious target (the 2009 low was $33.55) on a confirmed break below $45 support…
Evidence of a potential bottom will come when there’s a divergence between price and RSI(14)…in other words, a new price low that’s not confirmed by a new low in the RSI(14) – in TA, that’s a common signal to look for and that’s exactly what occurred in Crude when it bottomed in early 2009…
Gold Performance vs. Euro, Loonie & U.S. Dollar
An important point to keep in mind about Gold is that it’s performing well in every currency other than the U.S. dollar…in fact, even against the dollar, bullion has held up better than expected given the greenback’s most intense move to the upside in 4 decades…
Over the last 13 months, Gold is up 21% vs. the euro and 12.5% vs. the loonie…it’s down 6% in U.S. dollar terms, but that’s after a remarkable run by the greenback…
Today’s Markets
Asia
China’s Shanghai Composite hit a new 5-year high overnight, surging 75 points or 2.2% to close at 3449 on hopes for fresh stimulus measures…at the conclusion of the annual parliamentary session over the weekend, the Chinese Premier sounded a warning on the economy and said that Beijing has room and the tools to step in should growth falter and impact employment…
Europe
European markets finished significantly higher today…optimism over the German stock market just won’t stop – the benchmark DAX 30 index today broke above the key 12,000 mark for the 1st time ever and recorded its 26th record close already in 2015…
North America
The Dow is up 189 points through the first 2 hours of trading…in Toronto, the TSX has added 119 points as of 8:30 am Pacific while the Venture is off 3 points at 662…
Silver Short-Term Chart
Silver has been trading within a downsloping channel since near the end of January, and the test now it whether it finds support at the bottom of that channel where it’s currently resting…
The metal reacted in January at $18.50 (almost exactly at chart and Fib. resistance) and has been consolidating in recent weeks within this downsloping channel…a move outside of that channel – either up or down – would be technically very significant, so this is shaping up to be a key week…
RSI(14) has fallen below a previous support level and is now at 34%, a drop in half from late January…
In December, Silver finally staged a definitive breakout above a downtrend line that was in place since the summer (note how the downtrend line became new support that month)…this gave Silver the fuel it needed to test higher levels…
Silver Long-Term Chart
This 34-year monthly chart continues to give hope that Silver could be in the very early stages of a powerful “Wave 5” move to the upside, though we caution that this could take some time to play out (if indeed this theory is correct)…the reasons for such a possible move are also not clear at the moment…
RSI(14) has bounced off previous long-term support which will need to hold along with key price support in the immediate vicinity of $15…
One note of concern on this chart is the sell pressure that has prevailed since the beginning of 2013, after a decade-long period of buy pressure…based on historical patterns, sell pressure could persist for a considerable time yet – though that doesn’t necessarily mean that the price can’t still trend higher…nonetheless, it would be encouraging to see this sell pressure begin to abate…it has eased off only very slightly in recent months…
Dave
Regarding YFI & your posts # 11, 12 & 13 this a.m., we have to agree to
disagree on this one. For your sake, i hope it moves up, but i am
bringing forward your words, expressing the possibility of, which are as
follows: “when, if, could, may, maybe”, which by the way, leaves room for
much uncertainty, so there you go…You are still my cyber buddy !
Comment by Bert — March 16, 2015 @ 8:53 am
I hear ya Bert, and I understand. I use those words because they are not direct. I would expect people to not honor such words as “will” and so forth. My wording leaves the possibilities out there.
She consolidated nicely for 2 hours around .21 – It’s after lunch and it looks like she wants to move higher, possibly close above .22
Love ya Bert
Comment by dave — March 16, 2015 @ 9:06 am
I do have a bid in at .18 – I loaded up at .13 – Yes, its going to correct (maybe) . The question is WHEN.
See ya Bert- Happy trading.
Comment by dave — March 16, 2015 @ 9:16 am
Oh Bert, I do have a new team joining my football network, but I can’t announce it yet cause I’m not in it yet.
Comment by dave — March 16, 2015 @ 9:19 am
Bit of profit-taking in VGD today.Results expected later today,released tomorrow.Will it be thumbs up or thumbs down for the first round?
Comment by Jim Niles — March 16, 2015 @ 9:22 am
Dave – Love ya Bert
Bert – Oh Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Comment by Bert — March 16, 2015 @ 9:27 am
Bert – Oh Noooooooooooooooo
Hahahahaha
Comment by dave — March 16, 2015 @ 10:26 am
Jim – Looks like market might be thumbs down. There I go with those speculative words again. If only I had a crystal ball with a genie inside.
Comment by dave — March 16, 2015 @ 10:35 am
Yeah another down day for GGI. Jon, any idea when you will release the interview with Regoci? Not that it will make a difference to the SP but it would be nice to hear what he had to say.
Comment by Dan — March 16, 2015 @ 11:07 am
GGI has traded between .165 and .175 today, Dan, so it’s an unchanged day at the moment, not another down day…closed at .165 Friday. Anyhow, there are a number of things we’re working on, and our interview with Steve is 1 of them. Your patience will be rewarded.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 16, 2015 @ 11:17 am
Sorry to be the seller of GGI today. Although GGI has a lot going for it I decided to sell my GGI and added more DBV following more DD. I believe both will be winners however I feel DBV is going to be a bigger mover in the short term (ie this summer/fall).
Comment by d4 — March 16, 2015 @ 11:26 am
d4, can you share your thoughts on why you think DBV will be a better bet than GGI. I don’t see GGI making any significant quick gains (I could be wrong), but I do prefer GGI as a long term investment due to the number of different projects they have. They could hit big at the Sheslay in the near future once they get a drill going. DBV to me is a possible one hit wonder that actually has not yet hit good enough grades, but they are progressing in the right direction.
Comment by Tom UK — March 16, 2015 @ 1:18 pm
Jon,
Found this on another board, any comments?
This was put out by SW last week. Garibaldi gets a small mention. They want to send over what it believes are mineralized rocks?? Is that the extent of their certainty??
Cyprium is not the only company trying to become a Mexican toll miller. David Coburn’s Gainey Capital Corp. (GNC: $0.23) has the same idea. It owns a 300-tonne-per-day mill and this year it signed its first two clients. Belmex Resources is sending over 10,000 tonnes of ore in total, while Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI: $0.18) is hoping to send over what it believes are mineralized rocks. Gainey has yet to announce any toll production results. The company has over $2-million in working capital, which should be more than enough to cover president Coburn’s modest $41,200-a-year salary. This is Mr. Coburn’s first public company. Previously he worked in the plastics and chemicals business, which probably explained his real-world level salary.
Comment by Greg — March 16, 2015 @ 9:04 pm
Greg, first off, you have to understand that the word “ore” has to be used very carefully (only when there are proven, probable reserves) and many companies have misused that term over the years and have had their knuckles rapped by the regulators as a result. Steve and the Garibaldi group play by the book; they are shipping “mineralized material” to Gainey’s facilities. Not officially “ore” but there’s gold in them rocks, obviously. Plenty of it.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 17, 2015 @ 2:33 am
d4, no need to say sorry to anyone here, Pat, for selling any stock, though a very wise strategy is to hold both these plays. You certainly don’t have to convince me of the merits of DBV, which I know you like a lot, and what’s developing at the Hat. We’ve made that quite clear over the last year and in particular over the last few months – we pointed out in December what was likely going to be a game-changing hole in #23, and recently we’ve been connecting certain dots and we see a much bigger system unfolding at the Hat than anyone previously imagined. The Lisle Zone is just the tip. Farshad is a bulldog and has a tremendous new asset in Dr. Razique, in addition to the whole team there.
What you are underestimating with GGI are a few things, in both Mexico and B.C. Rodadero is growing rapidly, the grades are high and and silver and gold are close to surface (market advantages). The last hole hit bonanza grades on a 150-m step-out. A deposit is coming together at Silver Eagle and the potential strike length for Silver Eagle/Reales is in excess of 2 km. When they start hitting at other targets, watch out. Silver Eagle and Reales are just the edge of what is likely a vast system. Considerable takeover activity in Mexico over the last 6 months. There is serious interest in how Rodadero is coming together. Plus, of course, there’s La Patilla, where material is being loaded up for processing.
On another highly important note, keep a very close eye on what unfolds at Grizzly Central. That’s where we predict the next major new discovery in the Sheslay district will be. We’ve spent hundreds of hours researching the district, as you know, and being flat-lying and low, and “boggy” in some areas, similar in respects to the Hat, and exhibiting other features, it is the ideal target for the area’s third deposit or series of deposits – and could in fact be the largest of all, or have the best grades of all, given the size and a massive circular feature that independent geologists/geophysicists have pointed out.
What jumped out at me in GGI’s last news re: Rodadero was the mention at the very end that exploration has already started at the Grizzly. Given weather at this time of year, I highly suspect they are targeting the area around Grizzly Central where there is less snow, though probably still a couple feet when they started. They wouldn’t be racing in there with a couple feet of snow unless they felt they were onto something. They continue to move closer to the drill stage and they are efficiently pinpointing the best location for a big discovery right off the bat. They hit on hole 1 at Rodadero. I predict they will hit on hole 1 at Grizzly, or certainly within the first 3. Keep in mind, the drill hole success ratio in the district is incredibly high. And so much more is known now than a year ago. Again, I cannot stress enough, these day-to-day penny moves in both GGI and DBV, which so many people get tangled up in because they can’t see the forest for the trees, they are merely a child’s game right now. Both are going to erupt; then it’s an entirely new game.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 17, 2015 @ 3:03 am
Tom UK- I will elaborate on my DD for DBV when I have the time (probably over the week end).
Jon- I think DBV will have the spark it needs to move up soon with H23 and continuation of drilling under McAndless and Razique. The work Razique has done since being part of the team is very extensive and thorough so we are all looking forward to drilling. I do like GGI a lot and plan to rebuy it at some point (a much bigger position). Their Mexican assets are not attracting much of the market’s attention but then again not much is right now! I have a lot of faith in a discovery at the Grizzly but I still have plenty of time before that happens so until then I think DBV will provide more return in the short term. I know your DD on DBV is extensive and so is mine. Since my DD is more extensive on DBV and base on it, I am more comfortable being over weighted in DBV than diversified in both.
Comment by d4 — March 17, 2015 @ 3:20 am
BMR – Grizzly Central – We’ve spent hundreds of hours researching the district.
Bert – Would you be so kind as to elaborate on the above noted sentence. Can anyone
do the necessary research above ground to the satisfaction of others, enough
so, that one can invest hard earned cash with ease of mind.
Comment by Bert — March 17, 2015 @ 5:23 am
Bert, I’m glad u asked…we’ve had our boots on the ground up there, we’ve seen it from the air with the April 2014 trip, we have spoken with literally dozens of individuals (prospectors, geologists, geophysicists, engineers, CEO’s, etc.), we have gone through every technical report that’s publicly available…we have studied maps, drill data and all technical information that has been released, and we have used our own in-house consulting geo to help in the analyzing of important data and the big picture…hundreds of hours is actually an understatement…but because of that, I can say with confidence that this area is going to become a huge Canadian discovery district, and fortunes are going to be made…Farshad is onto something very big and it’s our conclusion that Grizzly Central will become the next major discovery in the district…very obvious parallel trends with the right alteration packages are cutting NW/SE throughout the entire district right down onto Teck’s ground….geochem is becoming a more important indicator…my prediction is that we’re going to see multiple – multiple – deposits from the north to the south…as exciting as what DBV is onto right now, which the market hasn’t fully grasped yet, GGI has the most massive land package which is prospective for deposits literally from 1 end to the other, but Grizzly Central I believe is where the sweetest honey is – perhaps in the entire district…the heat engine for much of this? the Kaketsa pluton, 3/4 of which is on GGI ground.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 17, 2015 @ 6:14 am
The market is not catching on because the mining market is dead.
Comment by dave — March 17, 2015 @ 6:21 am
When people say the mining market is dead, that’s music to my ears, Dave. Doesn’t mean the Venture may not drop a little more, but that’s music to my ears. It’s the opposite of the euphoria at the top of the market. For the truly legitimate mining deals and potential discoveries, there are some incredible opportunities right now. It’s a dead market for day-flippers, yes, but that’s not how the big money is made in this business.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 17, 2015 @ 6:23 am
GGI – It is very difficult to pick up shares of GGI with a limit. If you buy at the market, no problem. It seems not many willing to give up their shares, a good thing imo.
Comment by Dan — March 17, 2015 @ 6:31 am
Jon – When people say the mining market is dead, that’s music to my ears,
Bert – The mining market is dead !
The mining market is dead !
The mining market is dead !
Enjoy the music Jon.
Comment by Bert — March 17, 2015 @ 6:32 am
YFI – Sold half my position at .25, letting the rest ride. I hear music and I see a sea of green.
Comment by dave — March 17, 2015 @ 6:35 am
YFI – I think today is correction day for it. You watch for high volume off the start, over 6 mil traded already. Its having trouble pushing above .265. If this is her correction day, I will look for re-entry between .18 and .20 – Cheers
Comment by dave — March 17, 2015 @ 6:51 am
Bert..
Did you hear back from the CEO of WRR regarding drilling startup? We’re all waiting to hear back from you pal!!
Comment by Jeff — March 17, 2015 @ 7:12 am
mining market not dead.just find it pathetic that the world awaits the changeing of one word.hope in regoci’s interview he has an update on the 43-101 that C.J.Greig has working for some time now.would this come out befour they sink a bit in the ground at grizzly??
Comment by tombc — March 17, 2015 @ 7:52 am
Jeff
Apparently you haven’t been reading my posts, i already stated, that i can’t get
through on the phone & they are not answering my emails & with that i said, enough !
I then tried selling my shares at 0.045 & i also struck out there. I asked the question,
why the heck did i purchase WRR shares in the beginning & the answer evades me.
I am stuck Jeff my buddy, but i feel certain that i will find a way out. Good luck !
Comment by Bert — March 17, 2015 @ 8:07 am
tombc – The mining market is not dead?
Show me a mining stock with a chart like BLO, NPH, YFI!
Comment by dave — March 17, 2015 @ 8:27 am
well dave,,my point is the us buck is killing everything,and until the top 2or3% in the u.s have lined their pockets,its going to be like this for a while.
Comment by tombc — March 17, 2015 @ 12:12 pm