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March 13, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings

Gold continues to hover around $1,700 an ounce with strong chart support between $1,660 and $1,680, and resistance around $1,720…as of 5:50 am Pacific, the yellow metal is off $14 an ounce at $1,687…Silver is down 30 cents to $33.31…Copper has gained 4 pennies to $3.88…Crude Oil is 44 cents higher at $106.77 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-third of a point to 80.15…

Nothing dramatic is expected from today’s FMOC meeting as it’s widely believed the Fed will “stay the course” and say nothing new…April’s meeting could be more interesting as that’s when the Fed will be issuing a new economic forecast…U.S. jobs data is looking encouraging but the American economy continues to face headwinds including “fiscal drag” from budget cuts…governments around the world are constrained in their ability to provide “stimulus”, which is actually a good thing as the days of Big Government need to come to an end, so stimulating economic activity has been left to the central bankers which is why there have been more than 75 easing moves globally over the last six months…that trend is likely to continue which creates a bullish environment for commodities and the stock market as a whole…particularly noteworthy is the easing mode that China is in right now, and in the case of the Chinese they also have a government that’s sitting on mountains of cash…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were up overnight with China’s Shanghai Index advancing 21 points to 2456…European markets are up by about 1% as investors cheered solid economic data from Germany…

Stock index futures as of 5:50 am Pacific are pointing toward a positive open on Wall Street…U.S. retail sales rose 1.1% in February, in line with expectations, to a five-month high…

The Venture Exchange fell 14 points yesterday on low volume to close at 1636…this is an interesting level on the Venture because it’s just above the rising 100-day moving average (SMA) and right at the 1,000 day SMA…the 1,000-day has been in decline since the fall of 2008 but it will likely reverse to the upside later this year which is very bullish for the CDNX…this long-term moving average was resistance last November at 1675 but now it seems to be providing support, another clue that this is the right time to be a buyer in this market…

Meanwhile, the Volatility Index (VIX), which of course has an inverse relationship to the CDNX, has broken previous support which gives additional credence to the view that the CDNX hit an important low March 6 (1596) and will strengthen in the days ahead…

Prodigy Gold (PDG, TSX-V)

Prodigy Gold (PDG, TSX-V) has discovered a significant thick zone of high-grade mineralization in the footwall of the main Magino deposit…drill hole MA-11-205 intersected 10 metres (83 to 93 metres) grading 8.55 g/t Au within a thicker zone of 24 metres grading 4.22 g/t Au (82 to 106 metres)…interestingly, the drill intercept correlates with a district scale zone of higher grade Gold mineralization that extends from hole #205 through the main Magino deposit and continues to the east to the Island zone being mined by Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) east of the Magino Property….Prodigy will drill deeper along the structure discovered in hole #205, below the currently proposed open pit operation, in an effort to find significant volumes of high grade Gold mineralization similar to the deep high grade zones at the adjacent Island Mine…

Orko Silver (OK, TSX-V)

As BMR readers know, we’re very bullish on Silver and another company to watch closely in this space is Orko Silver (OK, TSX-V) which is developing one of the world’s largest primary Silver deposits, La Preciosa, near the city of Durango in Durango State, Mexico…OK and joint venture partner Pan American Silver (PAA, TSX) released a Preliminary Economic Assessment for La Preciosa last August…Orko is looking at ways to improve the project economics and has contracted a company to complete a new independent PEA to be delivered by the middle of this year…the new PEA will also include an updated resource estimate which is expected by the end of this month…meanwhile, Pan American continues to be active in advancing Preciosa on different fronts including finalization of an Environmental Impact Study…Orko jumped 33 cents yesterday on strong volume to close at$2.46…previous resistance at $2.12 is now the new support as John shows in the chart below…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in OK.

Armistice Resources (AZ, TSX)

John has one more chart to share this morning and it shows a “textbook” buying opportunity…Armistice Resources (AZ, TSX), which we first brought to our readers’ attention a little while back when it was in the low 20’s, got as high as 30 cents in early February and has fallen back to its now-rising 100-day moving average (SMA)…it closed yesterday at 23 cents…RSI has declined to previous support and Slow Stochastics (not shown) indicates oversold conditions…Armistice has been hoisting and stockpiling ore from its McGarry Mine at Kirkland lake since December and has just signed a custom milling contract with SMC (Canada) for processing 30,000 tons of Gold-bearing ore from McGarry…the contract with SMC will meet Armistice’s requirements for the start-up phase and is open for extension if the processing of the first 30,000 tons meets all expectations…


Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in AZ.

13 Comments

  1. take a look at AWH. just bonced off 52 week low. samples of 1940 g/t gold (58 oz/t), 55million floating shares

    Comment by db — March 13, 2012 @ 4:54 am

  2. Hi guys, dont know if you have ever looked at CGJ.T would like some input as they just announced over 2 mill ou M & I gold eq

    Comment by Ken — March 13, 2012 @ 6:54 am

  3. Ive got this feeling that RBW will come through with their promise of steady news and we will see an NR this week…

    Comment by db — March 13, 2012 @ 8:18 am

  4. The vix is also at multiple year lows which means everything is Rosie today but dark surprises are just around the corner. A spike up in the vix should correspond in the move down in broader markets. BMR, your showing of the vix chart should be sending out warning signs, not bullish sentiments.

    Comment by Moosey — March 13, 2012 @ 8:23 am

  5. IMPORTANT:

    1. Notice how the CDNX was outperforming the TSX back in Jan and part of Feb. Lately it has been underperforming the large indicies. This is a major warning sign.

    2. Institutional investors that provide the market momentum have been scaling back on equity exposure and are accumulating cash. Seasonality wise, Mar/Apr are fairly week periods of the year for gold stocks.

    3. The recent market movement have been based on low volume.

    Comment by Andrew M — March 13, 2012 @ 8:34 am

  6. HVU is at an all time low, that together with the VIX chart tells me we are about to enter a bear phase, if not already in one. I don’t see anything bullish with the Venture at present. The signals of low volume trending lower and ‘sell on news’ tells me that risk is off on the CDNX.

    Comment by Andrew — March 13, 2012 @ 8:47 am

  7. The truth of the matter is, no one & i mean no one, knows what can
    happen with the Venture.. There are so many factors, that can influence
    the market one way or another, that your guess is as good as mine & mine
    is usually a waste of time.

    Comment by Bert — March 13, 2012 @ 8:56 am

  8. Bernanke must have pleased the market, the Dow is on fire, while Gold is falling.
    To look at the positive aspect of it all is, the U.S. economy is doing better,
    which is giving people more confidence, therefore the people are selling the so
    called safe Gold & i bet are now willing to put their money back in stocks.
    Something to think about. I’m correct every once in awhile. R !

    Comment by Bert — March 13, 2012 @ 11:33 am

  9. All the indices are green except the Venture. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — March 13, 2012 @ 11:51 am

  10. Gold

    2 hours before market opens & we have Gold down 36.4. It broke
    through the low end of support this morning, so we continue to
    watch. With the economy doing better & the U.S. dollar showing
    signs of life, investors are obviously selling their Gold positions
    & as i mentioned yesterday, because they are feeling more confident
    about the economy, may be ready to put their cash from Gold sales
    in stocks & if so, we wait to see if it trickles all the way down
    to the Venture. R !

    Comment by Bert — March 14, 2012 @ 3:46 am

  11. Not to worry, Bert…..keep in mind the overall monetary environment for Gold remains very accommodating, and physical demand from the emerging markets will be a supporting factor…so the downside looks quite limited from here…we’ll see if support at $1,660 holds on a closing basis today…as far as stocks go, it’s interesting to note that the TSX Gold Index is very close to its 1,000-day SMA which consistently has been a strong supporting moving average…the Venture is holding up well, all things considered, so remains a time to be scooping up bargains IMHO…Bert, I see the Spot Market down $23 at $1,652 as of 5:12 am Pacific…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 14, 2012 @ 4:10 am

  12. Gold seems to be a free fall, now down 42.60. Where’s the bottom ?
    Anyway, i would just as soon see it move down now & have it over with.
    It should be a good day to pick up some Gold stocks.

    Comment by Bert — March 14, 2012 @ 4:10 am

  13. Jon

    One thing is for sure, i am not worried, i have been around long
    enough to realize that worrying won’t change anything. Whatever
    will be, will be & there’s nothing we can do about anything anyway,
    just watch it out. It seems whatever happens, someone is able to
    take advantage of the situation at the time, whether it’s buying
    or selling.

    Comment by Bert — March 14, 2012 @ 4:26 am

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