Gold is bouncing back today after finding support in the $1,665-$1,680 area…as of 8:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $22 an ounce at $1,699…Silver is up 69 cents at $32.33…Copper has gained 3 pennies to $3.33…Crude Oil has strengthened to $97.52 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off slightly at 78.29…
The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower pace than previously estimated in the third quarter, but weak inventory accumulation amid sturdy consumer spending strengthened views output would pick up in the current quarter…gross domestic product grew at a 2% annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate this morning, down from the previously estimated 2.5%…while the revision was below economists’ expectations for a 2.5% growth pace, the composition of the GDP report, especially still-firm consumer spending and the first drop in businesses inventories since the fourth quarter of 2009 set the platform for a stronger economic performance this quarter…some economists believe that numbers and trends so far suggest that fourth quarter growth could exceed 3% which would be the fastest in 18 months…the first quarter next year could be a different story, however, depending on the euro zone situation and if China’s economy doesn’t have such a gentle soft landing…
Investors remain jittery about Spain despite a landslide election victory by the centre-right People’s Party on Sunday…Madrid was forced to pay the highest interest in 14 years today on a sale of government debt…the average yield on a three-month bill more than doubled to just over 5% from almost 2.3% a month earlier…the interest paid on a 6-month bill also soared to over 5% from over 3.3% paid in October…there’s no quick-fix to the euro zone fiscal debt and growth deficit woes and the other major problem is that these countries don’t have the luxury of time to address many complex issues…this doesn’t have a good “feel” to it as we’ve been stating for weeks…what the final outcome is going to be is anyone’s guess but we have little faith in the politicians…markets don’t like uncertainty and they have more than they bargained for right now…
Interesting news from the Financial Times this morning…the number of property transactions in China’s largest cities has fallen to dangerously low levels, according to regulatory documents obtained by the Financial Times (property construction accounted for more than 13% of China’s economy last year)…in October, property transactions fell 39% year-on-year in China’s biggest 15 cities, according to government data…nationwide, transactions dropped 11.6%, accelerating from a 7% fall in September…the fall-off in transactions has affected developers’ cash flows and, in some cases, their ability to repay bank loans…rising defaults after a lending surge in 2009 and 2010, much of which ended up in the property sector, were cited by the International Monetary Fund this month as one of the Chinese financial sector’s biggest risks…
The CDNX fell through an important support zone between 1575 and 1600 yesterday…markets will take the path of least resistance, and the resistance band between 1600 and 1700 was simply too strong for the Index to overcome (immediately above 1700 is also a declining 100-day moving average)…the CDNX is currently up 1 point at 1556…the 300-day SMA is now beginning to decline and that’s a very troubling sign…at the minimum, a re-test of the October 4 low of 1306 could easily occur during the first quarter of next year…while there’s of course no guarantee of that happening, the downside risks in this market do outweigh the upside potential when one takes into account all technical and fundamental factors…yes, Gold can surge past $2,000 an ounce (which will be most helpful to those companies actually producing Gold) but we may not like the world we live in at that point…in otherwords, a scenario could unfold where we have significantly higher Gold prices and even more risk aversion as it pertains to the speculative juniors who are exploring for Gold…
Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) has generally been a reliable “bellwether” for the CDNX this year and it certainly doesn’t appear ready to bust out to the upside at the moment…for now, GBB is trading in a horizontal trend channel between 17.5 cents and 21 cents…there are obviously risks to the downside (below 17.5 cents) if indeed the CDNX turns significantly lower over the next few months…it’s critical for GBB to complete its NI-43-101 resource estimate for the LONG Bars Zone as soon as possible but that may not occur until late winter/early spring…John examines the GBB chart below to see what it’s telling us right now…
GBB is up half a penny at 19 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…on the producer side, John has an interesting chart this morning on Kinross Gold (K, TSX) which is up 39 cents to $13.26 after declining in 9 out of the last 10 sessions…this is a 10-year monthly chart, and look where the RSI is positioned – its lowest level since 2002, right before a dramatic jump in the share price…also note the trendline…Kinross is just above very strong support…there are different ways of interpreting a chart but this gives us a lot of encouragement that Gold’s next HUGE move will be up, not down…that’s the “big picture” view which is consistent with John’s Gold charts throughout the year…
Good day all, I need a tax loss sale on a stock, which 1 of BMR’s ” PICKS” should I choose?? Im sure I could choose any number of their picks. I hate to gloat like BMR does ( oops, they don’t do that anymore as all of their holdings are noe DOWN) but I’m up 68% on Pinecrest energy, since sold it and looking to lay down 19,500 dollars on a new pick.
Comment by John — November 22, 2011 @ 9:01 am
a repost (with additions) but stil worthy IMO
john = knob who is underwater and it isnt his fault of course
unlikley to find any advice on BMR that he likes these days, but cant leave site
Comment by rdww — November 22, 2011 @ 9:19 am
I see that Goldex, GDX another 1 of BMR’s fantastic ” picks” is at a 52 week LOW also, gee how many ” picks ” does that make now BMR that are at 52 week lows?? I hope and pray for all share holders in GDX that bought on the ” advice and charts” of BMR that GDX does not cease trading like Sidon. And that chart on GBB looks great IF you want to pick up shares at .145, like I do.
Comment by John — November 22, 2011 @ 9:20 am
So, BMR is it still ” just 1 dog” in the portfolio?? GDX is about to hit .04, but I have lowered my bid to .02 as many people will throw in the towel for tax loss selling.
Comment by John — November 22, 2011 @ 10:08 am
John, you astound me. You have nothing to offer but criticism of BMR even though they, week in, week out warn of the speculative nature of their picks. If you are so bloody good at stock picking, what the hell are you doing here? Here’s my take on your pitiful self…you found BMR and decided you liked the site. You have invested in one or more of BMR’s selections and most probably lost money on it, due of course, to the fact that your due diligence consists of riding on the work of others. But if I am wrong, and there is a chance that I am, I ask again, what the hell are you doing here? Save your hot air for your porridge and go do your own investing and leave those of us who have a better understanding of the markets to our investing and the prudent use of BullMarketRun.
Comment by Wayne — November 22, 2011 @ 10:42 am
John thanks for letting us know how much money you made on Pinecrest energy. I am glad you bring all this great info to the table. Maybe BMR can get you a spot on the team, it would be tripple Js
Comment by jimmy — November 22, 2011 @ 11:06 am
Andrew
Did you manage to buy CEV, if you did, you should be happy now. R !
Comment by Bert — November 22, 2011 @ 11:58 am
No, Bert – I was away from Friday until earlier this afternoon. I checked in when I could but it didn’t pullback far enough to a sp where I was comfortable for an entry. Now I’m sorry I didn’t buy in the 70s, 80s or 90s! I will continue to watch and wait for the next opportunity, hopefully before a news release. If not I’ll be ready to bail out of VGD and jump aboard CEV if the nr is good. You must be wearing a big smile this afternoon – congratulations! 🙂
Comment by Andrew — November 22, 2011 @ 12:36 pm
Andrew
I did well for a guy way down here somewhere. I sold all, except 5K at $1.17 & 1.24
this afternoon. I still have 5k just in case, but in this market, i had to grab while
i had the chance… If it goes higher, i still have 5k, if it goes lower, i may add, but
one thing is for sure, the profit i made, no one can take it from me now. R !
Comment by bert — November 22, 2011 @ 12:52 pm
Hey John,nice pick on Epo,what did it end at today after you mentioned the stock yesterday.
Comment by John — November 22, 2011 @ 1:14 pm
A friendly reminder to CEV holders.
CEV has been running for 6 days now & has moved into overbought territory.. The question remains,
will it retreat or not. As mentioned earlier, i sold all except 5K shares this afternoon, so my
money says it will retreat sometime tomorrow, if not, it won’t be the first time, i made a move
& wished i had hung in there. Show me someone who is perfect at this game & i will show you
a millionaire. Good luck to holders . R !
Comment by Bert — November 22, 2011 @ 3:49 pm
GDX………….INSIDER BUYS TODAY….496,000 SHARES…….pretty good sign I’d say John.
Top 10 Stocks By Net Buys Volume
Symbol Company Name Insider Buys Volume Insider Sells Volume Net Buys Volume
GDX Goldex Resources Corporation 496,000 0 496,000
NVK Novik Inc. 180,000 0 180,000
VAN Vangold Resources Ltd. 157,000 0 157,000
FDN Foundation Resources Inc. 100,000 0 100,000
RIO Rio Alto Mining Limited 58,500 0 58,500
MNL Monarch Energy Limited 50,000 0 50,000
WTR Westcore Energy Ltd. 50,000 0 50,000
CBA Champion Bear Resources Ltd. 49,000 0 49,000
NVX NV Gold Corporation 46,000 0 46,000
UGE Underground Energy Corporation 45,000 0 45,000
Comment by Dan — November 22, 2011 @ 6:20 pm
Hi gang, checking in briefly. Congrats to those who jumped aboard CEV. Watch for a correction soon, news next week could start a new leg. Looking for $3 to $5 next year, but again don’t be holding long term right now. Play the chart and TA on it. Its wee hours in the morning east coast. I’m on the west coast now and very tired. Cheers, and watch CJC for a volume increase soon, thats your cue.
Comment by dave — November 22, 2011 @ 11:57 pm
CEV news, which I think is positive? Maybe a knock on effect with CJC?
Comment by Andrew — November 23, 2011 @ 6:28 am
If anyone can do TA on CEV and indicate possible retracement level please share – I think Dave is unavailable for the time being – thanks! 🙂 I think support is at .99 but perhaps it could drop back to .86 if there is a sell on news or it unwinds because its overbought?
Comment by Andrew — November 23, 2011 @ 6:47 am
Any comments on Abcourt’s NR?
stockhouse.com/financialtools/sn_newsreleases.aspx?qm_symbol=v.abi&newsid=8372028
Seems this company can short better results and the SP still declines …sigh!
Comment by Hugh — November 23, 2011 @ 7:04 am
I meant to type ‘shore up’
Comment by Hugh — November 23, 2011 @ 7:08 am
Hugh, we’ll see what Jon’s interpretation is – but it appears to be a low volume day and a sell on news day – too much risk for many investors? I find Renaud’s news releases don’t have enough oomph, if you know what I mean – some adjectives he uses are meaningless to shareholders and potential investors.
Comment by Andrew — November 23, 2011 @ 7:22 am
Checking in briefly, Andrew .85 to .90 on correction is possible. I mentioned CEV at .355 a month and half ago, CJC .35, hint, hint
Comment by dave — November 23, 2011 @ 8:08 am
Andrew – agreed. What ii it going to take, with the general outlook for risk appetite poor, to take the mining stocks higher?? I mean the outlook for equities the next few years is poor with the entire western world heading into recession (did we ever get out?). So what is the catalyst we need to take gold mining stocks higher and parabolic as we are all predicting? Any thoughts? Anyone? Are we all waiting for ECB and the FED to hit the printing presses? Or waiting for an outright currency collapse. Just wondering if anyone see’s any other catalysts on the horizon to get the mining sector to decouple from the indexes???
Thanks
Comment by Hugh — November 23, 2011 @ 8:11 am
Dave, thanks for taking the time to drop in and comment on CEV – much appreciated. Enjoy your day our West.
Comment by Andrew — November 23, 2011 @ 9:41 am