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October 3, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 2 Of 3

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

Gold Bullion managed to hold its ground last week despite a 5% drop in the CDNXGBB fell as low as 26 cents but finished the week at 29.5 cents, up half a penny…investors continue to wait for the much-anticipated initial 43-101 compliant resource estimate for the LONG Bars Zone at the same time as the stock faces stiff technical headwinds…the 100-day moving average, for example, which supported GBB from late 2009 through early this year, is now resistance which the stock has not yet been able to overcome (it currently sits at 39 cents)…the rising 1,000-day SMA at 25 cents must now hold as support…GBB has a very valuable asset – Gold in the ground and close to surface at Granada…just how much of it remains to be seen but we’re optimistic as a resource estimate draws closer…one important point is very certain in this current equity and Gold environment – many producers, big, medium and small, are sitting on large piles of cash and are looking to add ounces to their production profiles…any junior with an advanced property like GBB possesses, and a 43-101 resource to back it up, could be the target of a potential takeover…merger and takeover activity and property acquisitions in this sector are likely going to increase substantially in the months ahead…GBB’s latest drill results, released September 14, continue to show wide intersections of low but mineable grade…half of the 28 holes had intercepts of 100 metres or more grading between 0.31 g/t Au and 0.50 g/t Au…the northern part of the Eastern Extension continues to show excellent potential and tonnage is adding up in that area…so, overall, we continue to like how the LONG Bars Zone is coming together but GBB has frustrated investors by not producing a 43-101 earlier as promised…companies are rewarded when they exceed the market’s expectations and are punished when they don’t fulfill them which is a major reason GBB has been struggling of late…the Castle spin-off is nice in a way but it also reminds investors that resources have been diverted from the company’s core project (Granada) over the last nine months to a property that may or may not prove to be a winner…GBB’s current market cap of $48 million puts a value of just $16 an ounce on Gold in the ground at Granada if one were to assume the 43-101 will outline approximately 3 million ounces in the measured, indicated and inferred categories…that’s just a hypothetical number on our part at the moment but whatever number GENIVAR comes up with, we believe it should exceed the 2.4 to 2.6 million ounce conceptual figure that Gold Bullion gave in April of last year…based on all the drill results to date, this appears to be shaping up as a half-gram deposit with a higher grade starter pit and big volume…it’s all about volume at Granada which is why the drills have to keep turning and why we’ve been stating all year that more than just two rigs are needed in the LONG Bars Zone…this property continues to offer great potential but massive drilling is necessary…GBB is up 321% since we introduced it to BMR readers in late December, 2009…

Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V)

Currie Rose could not hold important support at 14 cents last week and dropped as low as 11 cents Friday, albeit on light volume, before closing the week off a penny at 13 cents…with assay results pending from Mabale Hills, the hope is that CUI could deliver some impressive numbers after reporting encouraging visuals…the company stated August 24 that 20 RC holes have been completed at Mabale Hills (16 at Sisu River, 4 at Dhahabu) while drilling has shifted to the Sekenke Project approximately 200 kilometres to the southeast…what we found especially encouraging about the news is the fact that disseminated sulphides were intersected in all 16 holes at Sisu River, unlike Phase 1 drilling there last winter…the initial stage of drilling at Sisu River gave the company some important geological clues and it’s quite possible that assay results will turn out much better this time around…each of the 4 holes at Dhahabu also intersected disseminated sulphides…drilling has yet to commence at Mwamazengo…geochemical analysis has outlined a continuous anomaly over a few hundred metres that runs parallel to the west of a previously reported discovery at Mwamazengo where drill results included notable high-grade intercepts such as 34 metres grading 3.60 grams per tonne Gold, 12 metres grading 9.11 g/t Au, 63 metres grading 2.59 g/t Au and 31 metres grading 5.97 g/t Au…we’re most excited, however, about the Sekenke Project which has “blue sky” written all over it…Sekenke is why we decided to start following CUI when it was trading around a dime last fall…results from satellite imagery provide additional evidence that Sekenke is a highly intriguing geological target and part of the same northwest trending structure that hosts Canaco’s (CAN, TSX-V) Handeni Project…satellite imagery has also shown that the structures at Sekenke are coincident with a strong alteration envelope…what’s unique about this project is that it surrounds and runs in between two former high grade Gold mines including Tanzania’s original producer…this greatly increases the chances of a discovery as it’s unlikely the former mines were fully exploited or explored as techniques a century ago in this industry obviously weren’t what they are today…CUI has a terrific chance to hit it big at Sekenke and we also wouldn’t be surprised if the company also takes a shot at acquiring the former Sekenke Mine…that’s speculation on our part but it makes sense from a strategic point of view…CUI announced a joint-venture deal January 25 with Australian-based Liontown Resources for Currie Rose’s Jubilee Reef Gold Project in Tanzania…CUI’s focus is on the Sekenke and Mabale Hills Projects, so finding a partner for Jubilee Reef made sense…it was announced August 24 that Liontown has now started drilling at Jubilee…Trueclaim Exploration (TRM, TSX-V) has completed a Phase 2 drill program at the Scadding Propery…TRM has earned a 51% interest in Scadding and can acquire a full 100% interest by completing a feasibility study, paying $2 million to Currie Rose, and giving Currie Rose a 3% net smelter royalty…Trueclaim’s results were encouraging but considerably more work needs to be completed at Scadding to better determine its ultimate potential…while Currie Rose has had its market cap shaved by 70%, from a high of nearly $40 million late last year to the current $11.6 million, what hasn’t changed is the quality of this company’s project portfolio which remains as high as ever…Currie Rose‘s June 30th financials (six months) show the company has all the cash it needs (nearly $2 million as of June 30) to complete an initial major round of drilling (10,000 metres) in Tanzania this summer…CUI has fallen 3 pennies since being added to the BMR model portfolio a year ago…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V)

Adventure Gold is now testing strong support around 40 cents as it closed Friday at 42 cents, a drop of 6.5 cents for the week…this company remains one of our favorites, though, with several exciting projects on the go…our contention is that there’s a strong chance at least one of them will “hit” but in the current market environment, it’s impossible to say what the potential impact could be on the share price…President and CEO Marco Gagnon is a sharp operator who knows how to maximize every dollar the company spends…he also has the strong backing of Montreal investment firm Windermere Capital which holds just under 20% of AGE as disclosed January 21…the company has five active key projects, two of which are in the hands of joint venture partners Lake Shore Gold (LSG, TSX) and Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX)…AGE started a 5,000 metre Phase 2 program in late May at its very promising Pascalis Property near Val d’Or…on May 31 the company reported more highly encouraging Phase 1 drill results from this former producer including 4.8 g/t Au over 33.1 metres in hole #20 (plus lower grade halos over significant widths)…the Phase 2 program was designed to further define the Gold system, leading to a resource calculation which is already being worked on…initial results from Phase 2 were released September 13 and were solid…they included 7.1 g/t Au over 4.3 metres, 4.5 g/t Au over 9.3 metres and 4.1 g/t Au over 5.8 metres (different holes)…Pascalis encompasses the past producing L.C. Beliveau Mine (Richmont’s Beaufor Mine is nearby)…we found a comment from Gagnon in AGE’s June 2 news release quite interesting…“Following positive drill results and the permitting process, an open-pit or an underground operation could be producing in the near future”…we believe Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) could be very interested in this project as they are looking for an acquisition in the general area…earlier this year we met with AGE’s Jules Riopel, VP Exploration, regarding the company’s strong portfolio of properties…he was very keen at that time on Pascalis and given the drill results, his bullishness on this property appears to have been justified…the former L.C. Beliveau Mine was a very profitable operation between 1989 and 1993, producing nearly 170,000 ounces of Gold for Cambior…we believe a lot of Gold was overlooked in that area…in addition, the geometry of the deposit is such that mining costs should be relatively low…considerable infrastructure is also in place…meanwhile, drill results are pending from Agnico-Eagle’s 4,000 metre drill program at AGE’s Dubuisson Property near Val d’or…Dubuisson is contiguous to the Goldex Mine Property and also straddles a 5-kilometre segment of the prolific Cadillac-Larder Lake Gold break…also of immediate interest is AGE’s partnership with Lake Shore Gold on the Meunier 144 Property where deep drilling is still testing the down-plunge extension of Gold zones located at the Timmins and Thunder Creek deposits…the current initial deep drill hole onto the Meunier JV property is continuing and has reached a core length of 2600 metres…with recent wedging it appears to be on track to potentially hit its intended target by the end of October…if a discovery is made, AGE will instantly explode higher…AGE has completed an 8-hole Phase 1 program at the Lapaska Property near Val D’Or…results released July 21 for the remaining 6 holes at Lapaska were very mediocre compared to the first 2 holes (MZO-TSX-V has an option to earn up to a 70% interest in the property) but Lapaska still holds good potential…AGE course also still has plans for the Granada Extension Property…AGE’s latest financials, released June 29, show the company with $3.3 million in working capital as of April 30, a $300,000 improvement in working capital over the quarter ending January 31…we first mentioned Adventure Gold to our readers in an article September 29 last year, just a couple of days following the company’s announcement that it had acquired land at Granada, when the stock was trading in the low 20′s…we officially added AGE to the BMR model portfolio at just 34 cents October 28…Adventure Gold has been around only since late 2007…AGE is clearly a keeper for the long haul as the company is well positioned to survive any downturn in the markets…

GoldQuest Mining (GQX, TSX-V)

What an unexpected change of events for GoldQuest…long-term, the proposed merger with Takara Resources (TKK, TSX-V) could work out exceptionally well but investors, who often look at just the short-term,  aren’t impressed at the moment…GQC closed Friday at its weekly (and 52-week) low of 10 cents while TKK finished at 6.5 cents, giving the two companies a combined current market cap of $16 million…GQC investors aren’t pleased with the ratio – GQC shareholders will receive 1.6287 shares in Takara for each share held in GoldQuest…talk of a potential rollback (perhaps 1-for-4) and a possible large financing prior to drilling aren’t going over very well with investors either…over the long run, however, GQC Chairman Bill Fisher is positioning for making the combined GQC-TKK entity a producer…that makes sense but, still, investors believe he could have negotiated a better ratio for GoldQuest given the company’s substantial assets in the Dominican Republic and Spain…insider trading reports show that Fisher stepped into the GQC market at the end of the week to add 165,000 shares to his position…GQC has fallen 49% since being added to the BMR model portfolio a year ago…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V)

We remain very pleased with how things are proceeding with Seafield, especially considering the current markets…President and CEO Carlos Lopez continues to put the building blocks together with this company…we’re impressed with his actions over the last few months as he has strengthened Seafield in several ways…he has also put his money where his mouth is, buying significant amounts of stock in the open market…Seafield fell another penny last week, however, to close at 19 cents, half a penny below its 1,000-day moving average (SMA) which is actually now in decline…from a technical perspective, some additional share price weakness is clearly possible with a major area of support at 16 cents…the company released positive results September 21 for the initial scoping level metallurgical testwork on its Miraflores Property which showed gravity recoveries as high as 94.3%…the stock has been less volatile recently after bouncing up and down for a period of time between the low 20′s and the low-to-mid-30′s… the company’s June 30th financials were released August 26, showing SFF with $18 million in cash…Seafield announced August 31 that it has opened its new office in Medellin…this followed the news August 11 that Giovanny Ortiz, the former exploration manager of the Angostura Project, has been appointed General Manager of the company’s operations in Colombia…heavy selling came into the SFF market July 25 when the company announced drill results from Dos Quebradas which were disappointing, though we caution it’s still early in the game for that property…Seafield is currently drilling a promising area at Dos Quebradas approximately 250 metres wide (east to west) and more than 300 metres long (north to south)…the zone is open at depth and is interpreted to plunge to the north…more drill results from Dos Quebradas are expected in the next four weeks…meanwhile, Seafield has added a second drill rig at Miraflores in order to expedite a Phase 2 program there which is designed to better define the shape of the orebody, increase the resource confidence and extend mineralization…a total of 10 holes or 6,200 metres is expected to be completed by November (the rock is hard at Miraflores, so the drilling is slow which is why a second rig has been added)…the company announced July 5 that it has hired SRK Consulting for a preliminary economic assessment or scoping level study on Miraflores for completion by the first quarter of next year…SRK will evaluate the potential positive economics of developing an open-pit and underground operation at the property…it will also provide recommendations to advance the project to prefeasibility…Seafield released an updated 43-101 resource estimate for Miraflores May 26…the project has gone from an inferred resource of 776,000 ounces (at a cut-off grade of 0.5 g/t Au) to a measured and indicated resource of 1.2 million ounces and an inferred resource of 354,000 ounces (at a cut-off grade of 0.3 g/t Au)…Seafield exploded from the low 20′s to an all-time high of 77 cents in just one day last December but then proceeded to give up all of those gains…the company’s Quinchia land package in Colombia has a great deal of untapped potential and Seafield is also in a very strong cash position…patient investors have an opportunity to do extremely well with this play given the geological merits of Quinchia and the real potential for 5 million+ ounces from several potential deposits…we have confidence the new management group will unlock value by bringing fresh insight and new energy to this play along with a more aggressive exploration approach…Seafield has gained 217%% since we made it the first company in the BMR model portfolio two years ago…its current market cap is $32 million…

5 Comments

  1. Jon, you have stated many times that you think that more drilling is required and this makes good sense to me – however my question is this – do you think the drilling completed to date is enough to shore up a 2.5m+ in the upcoming 43-101?

    Comment by Hugh — October 3, 2011 @ 2:42 am

  2. I believe the drilling completed to date will give GBB a very respectable 43-101 initial resource calculation, and I would be surprised if it were less than 3 million…don’t forget, GENIVAR will also be incorporating historical drilling as well…one specific area I’m really excited about is the northern portion of the Eastern Extension….results have been consistently good out of there and lots of tonnage is building…there is still tremendous potential with this property and what I’m thinking is more likely now, given the state of the markets, is a potential takeover of GBB…just speculation on my part…if a company like Osisko wants to consolidate its land position, they will have a golden opportunity in the months ahead…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 3, 2011 @ 3:23 am

  3. Thanks for coming back to me, this question was troubling me and thanks again for all you effort with this website – much appreciated. Lets hope for a good 43-101, pity the market backdrop is so ugly.

    Comment by Hugh — October 3, 2011 @ 3:41 am

  4. You’re welcome, Hugh….the frustration with the slow pace of drilling (2 rigs) is that to find 10 million ounces, one needs to drill the LONG Bars Zone like Swiss cheese….finding 3 or 4 million is one thing; 2 or 3 times that amount or more requires a massive amount of drilling…..also many more boots on the ground….that has been a major problem for GENIVAR and GBB, getting enough geologists and people to do the work……

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 3, 2011 @ 5:13 am

  5. Jon

    it sounds like all of the labs everywhere are all backed up so companies doing alot of drilling cannot get their results in a timely manner to tell them what or where they need to keep on drilling at. Could this be the case with GBB? What good does it do to keep on drilling if you are basically drilling blind, just curious to your thoughts on this?

    thx

    Comment by GREG H — October 3, 2011 @ 7:37 am

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