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July 8, 2011

BMR Morning Musings…

Gold is stronger this morning, getting a boost from a U.S. non-farm payroll number that came in well below expectations…the Labor Department reported that payrolls rose only 18,000, the weakest reading since September and well below economists’ expectations for a rise of 90,000…the unemployment rate also climbed to 9.2%, the highest since December, and up from 9.1% in May…many economists raised their forecasts yesterday after a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. private hiring from payrolls processor ADP, and they expected gains of anywhere between 125,000 and 175,000…the market is a forward-looking machine…there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the U.S. “soft patch” is ending and that growth will pick up again during the second half of the year, so sentiment should improve after a knee-jerk reaction to a bad June jobs number…President Obama, seeing his re-election chances in serious jeopardy if the jobs outlook in the U.S. doesn’t improve quickly, will try to do whatever he can in an attempt to “grease the wheels” of the stalling U.S. economic recovery…some form of creative new stimulus can be expected in our view and that should be positive for commodities and the markets in general…as of 7:15 am Pacific, Gold is $8 higher at $1,541…Silver is up slightly at $36.52…Crude Oil is off $1.64 to $97.03 while the U.S. Dollar Index is essentially unchanged at 74.94 after being higher by about a third of a point prior to release of the jobs number…the CDNX, following a gain of 120 points or 6.4% over the last six sessions, is off 4 points at 1982 after the first 45 minutes of trading…it’s only about 15 points below its 50-day SMA…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) staged a breakout yesterday, shooting through resistance at 25 cents (the 50-day SMA), hitting a high of 31 cents and closing at 29 cents…as John’s 1-year weekly chart on VGD clearly showed yesterday, the stock sank into extreme oversold RSI territory during May and June, the reverse of what occurred last fall when it ran to an all-time high of 70 cents…the 10 and 20-day moving averages (SMA) have reversed to the upside, confirming a change in trend after the April-May-June weakness…the 300-day and 500-day moving averages (35 cents and 28 cents respectively) continue to rise which supports our view that VGD remains in a long-term bull phase…with regard to the fundamentals, this is a company with a large land package along the Cadillac Break west of Rouyn-Noranda where there is high discovery potential – and they are not afraid to drill deep below any cobalt sediments to get to the prospective Archean rocks…the company’s senior geologist, Robert Sansfacon, is a genius at understanding structure and was involved in the discovery of Osisko’s (OSK, TSX) Canadian Malartic deposit…VGD has a strong technical team on the ground and all the equipment (including drill rig access) it needs to execute its geological strategy…another potential major trigger for VGD is its Joutel Project, 150 kilometres north of Rouyn-Noranda…Joutel is a significant former Gold producer (two underground operations, one open-pit) that gave birth to Agnico-Eagle (AEM, TSX) in the early 1970’s…there’s a large area to the east of the past producing Telbel, Eagle and Eagle West deposits that looks highly attractive from an exploration standpoint…that’s the area we believe Visible Gold Mines will target in its upcoming drill program which is scheduled to begin soon…between Joutel and its Cadillac Break properties  – the Break properties also include ground immediately south, west and east of Richmont Mines‘ (RIC, TSX) growing Wasamac deposit – VGD is an excellent position to become one of the go-to exploration plays in northwest Quebec over the summer…the company is in a strong cash position with $6.5 million currently on hand…VGD is up another 2 pennies to 31 cents in early trading…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V), as we suspected it would, found rock-solid technical support right around its 500-day rising moving average (SMA) and appears to have started what could develop into a very significant new overall uptrend but more technical confirmation is required to support that view…the stock closed at 47.5 cents yesterday, up four pennies, which puts it above its 100-day SMA for the first time since February…it should be a very interesting summer for GBB with many more drill results to pour in along with an expected initial 43-101 resource estimate for the LONG Bars Zone…with drilling in LONG Bars Zone 2, GBB is staring into the eyes of its new neighbor, Osisko, which has optioned the adjacent Adanac Property from Threegold Resources (THG, TSX-V) which closed yesterday at 19 cents (THG, by the way, is now trading right near its rising 500-day SMA)…John updates the technical outlook for GBB in the chart below…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) is showing signs of possibly busting through resistance at 60 cents…AGE has a lot happening on the exploration front and we’ll be exploring its prospects in more detail in the very near future…it’s currently up a penny at 60 cents…Kaminak Gold (KAM, TSX-V) broke out on the charts yesterday, climbing 52 cents to $4.36 on over a million shares on the Venture…it opened at $4.37 this morning and is currently down 13 cents at $4.23…any pullback to the $4 level should be considered an excellent “jump in” point from a technical perspective…Kaminak’s Coffee Project in the White Gold District has strong exploration upside and yesterday’s trading activity was a very bullish signal…Silver Quest Resources (SQI, TSX-V), one of our favorites which is active in the White Gold District and elsewhere, has pulled back to $1.10 this morning…the chart for SQI looks exceptionally strong and the company’s 25% interest in the northern portion of New Gold’s (NGD, TSX) Blackwater deposit helps underpin the value of this play…Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V) closed up 2 pennies yesterday at 13 cents, putting it above its 50-day SMA for the first time since April…the stock is facing significant technical resistance between 13 and 14 cents, so how it handles that in the coming days will be interesting to watch…there’s no questioning the potential of Abcourt – it has valuable assets in its Elder-Tagami Gold Project and its Abcourt-Barvue Silver-Zinc Property…both are former producers and the company has been drilling these properties extensively in order to upgrade and expand 43-101 resources and reserves…the problem with Abcourt, however, is that President and CEO Renaud Hinse, who is getting on in years, needs to put himself in the background (he holds a wealth of knowledge and can still contribute significantly to the company) and bring in some fresh blood with new ideas and a new approach to unlocking shareholder value…that’s a difficult decision for anyone to take but a very wise one in our view for Hinse…we continue to like Abcourt for its assets and the potential for a possible takeover…its current market cap is $19.5 million which really only values the Gold operation and not the Silver-zinc play…we’re anticipating higher Silver and zinc prices in the year ahead, so the Barvue-Abcourt Property could certainly garner more attention…the CRB index is looking healthy from a technical standpoint and that’s good news for the CDNX which always perform well when the CRB Index is in an uptrend…the CRB Index averages prices across 17 commodities and across time – it tracks energy, grains, industrials, livestock, precious metals and agriculturals, so it’s a good leading indicator as well of global economic activity…

10 Comments

  1. Tony’s BACK! Looks like the resistance at .19 cents is about to be smashed! VGN is about to FINALLY have it’s day in the sun. Too bad for all those who got suckered into buying Loon Energy LNE yesterday…..OUCH!! Just how will Tony deploy all that cash??? hhhmmmm??? Next week is when I am told that we will get some pleasent news.

    Comment by john — July 8, 2011 @ 8:41 am

  2. Johnny

    I hope you weren’t smiling when you typed, “””Loon Energy”””suckered”””ouch”””.
    Anyone who was suckered in, should be pitied, remember how you fell apart when
    VGN went the wrong way. It goes this way, “do onto others, as you would like
    others to do onto you”. Have a good day my buddy !

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by bert — July 8, 2011 @ 8:59 am

  3. VGD looking better, with 3 hours left to trade & if things continue,
    we will be able to say, a much higher volume, a higher high & a higher
    low. VGD is starting to stand out & no doubt, the market is starting
    to take notice. Way to go VGD.

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by bert — July 8, 2011 @ 9:10 am

  4. Bert, I would never do that to anyone. I just feel bad for those who did get suckered. Now back to VGN, I see we briefly did hit the resistance of .19 today, looks like it is now onward and upward. I can’t wait to see what tony has planned next week. I have a feeling that VGN will SELL ALL of their investments in the companies they hold, spin out the oil as a separate company to exicsting share holders, announce that they have finally made the purchase of an advanced gold property, that is already permitted and ready to go. Watch for the increase in volume AND an INCREASE in share price, just before this announcement. Ofcourse, I wouldn’t know 1st…..??????/ hhhhmmmmm…

    Comment by john — July 8, 2011 @ 9:19 am

  5. Johnny

    You old bluff, but there’s room enough for all of us here.

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by bert — July 8, 2011 @ 9:25 am

  6. Seems to have turned a corner, Bert. RBC have an appetite again today for VGD hope it keeps up – soon be at my entry point but RSI now reached overbought. TD picking up CQX. GBB holding up well while the RSI unwinds.

    Comment by Andrew — July 8, 2011 @ 9:29 am

  7. Andrew

    I’m keeping an an eye on Bollinger Bands, as VGD has traded outside
    today & that signals a reversal, but charting those small stocks can
    throw one off at times. Maybe i should throw away the chart & clean
    my lenses. Good luck !

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by bert — July 8, 2011 @ 9:52 am

  8. Thanks Bert – that’s interesting I had not been paying attention to Bollinger Bands. VGD hasn’t been that far outside BB since 6th September 2010 but as it dropped back between the bands it traded sideways until the end of the month (with mostly declining volume) when there was very little volume and then it took off for its year high. It would be good to see more volume and more buyers (houses) but I’m not complaining – I’ll take what ever VGD can offer!

    Comment by Andrew — July 8, 2011 @ 10:14 am

  9. Any guesses to what the value of gbb and time frame will be assuming a takeover bid comes up?

    Comment by andrea — July 8, 2011 @ 2:14 pm

  10. I am tormenting Jon, all in fun. Today HRC closed at 0.44, up 0.045 on 113K shares.
    Although the bid fell back to 0.395 near the end of the day, the bid/ask at one time
    was 0.44/0.45 & it did trade at 0.45. The last time i mentioned it on this board, it
    was trading at around 0.36, so today’s move equals around 20%, as compared to 1 or 2 %
    at the banks. I will not comment further until this stock trades at 0.70 or higher, which
    may take some time but it will come. Thanks for giving me the opportunity of bringing
    forward stock(s), other than BMR picks.

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by Bert — July 8, 2011 @ 3:13 pm

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