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June 15, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…Go Canucks Go!

Gold dropped as low as $1,513 this morning before reversing…as of 8:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $7 an ounce at $1,531…the inability of the EU and the IMF to hammer out a final agreement on a debt and aid package to Greece has given Gold a lift…Euro zone ministers will meet again next week to find an agreement, with the voluntary involvement of private investors the main sticking point…Silver is 47 cents higher at $35.86…crude oil has reversed and is now up 34 cents a barrel to $99.71 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped two-thirds of a point to 75.08…some U.S. economic data came out this morning…the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month, down from April’s 0.4% increase…food costs rose 0.4% while energy costs fell 1%, the first drop in nearly a year…over the past 12 months, consumer prices in the U.S. have increased 3.6%, the biggest gain since October, 2008….the so-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose just 1.5% over the past 12 months but that’s still the biggest increase for core CPI since January, 2010…meanwhile, a gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed the sector unexpectedly contracted in June, falling to minus 7.79 for the first time since November, 2010, from positive 11.88 in the month before…economists polled by Reuters had expected a gain to 12.50…the U.S. economy has certainly hit a soft patch…Japan supply chain disruptions have clearly been a contributing factor and that situation should certainly improve significantly over the second half of the year…the “expectations” component of the National Home Builders’ Association sentiment survey has dropped four points to tie a record low set back in February, 2009…the CDNX is off a point at 1944…Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX), which found support at its rising 200-day moving average (SMA) recently, reported earnings of 6 cents per share this morning for Q1…revenue increased 95% for the first quarter to $15.5 million…the stock is currently up 19 cents to $3.13…Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V) is charging higher as we expected after becoming deeply oversold…it will face technical resistance around the $3.00 level…GCU is up 28 cents at the moment to $2.88…just beginning to rebound from oversold conditions is Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) which should have another very solid quarter of earnings…RIC is a great value play with superb growth potential given what’s happening at Wasamac…it’s up 2 pennies to $6.67…on the more speculative front, we spoke this morning with Jules Riopel, Adventure Gold’s (AGE, TSX-V) VP-Exploration, who’s very upbeat about what’s developing at the company’s Pascalis-Colombiere Property near Val d’Or in addition to projects elsewhere…it’s clear to us that Richmont likely has some interest in potential production possibilities at Pascalis-Colombiere (Riopel used to work for Richmont)…Riopel wouldn’t comment on that, but he’s very excited about the second round of drilling at this property and the updated resource calculation that will come from that…Adventure Gold has other irons in the fire as well including of course the deep hole being drilled by Lake Shore (LSG, TSX) at the Meunier 144 Property (the hole will be completed this summer, probably to a depth of about 3,000 metres), the Dubuisson Property where Agnico-Eagle (AEM, TSX) has started a 4,000 metre drill program, and of course Granada where AGE holds some strategic ground…AGE is looking solid on the charts and certainly has the potential of breaking out in a major way on news over the summer…the stock is currently off 4 pennies at 51 cents…any weakness in AGE should be viewed as an opportunity for patient investors…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) is unchanged at 23 cents…we’re just completing the final editing of a long interview with VGD President and CEO Martin Dallaire…VGD is one of the best exploration stories in the Rouyn-Noranda and surrounding area and we’re particularly excited with the company’s Joutel Project…Joutel is a massive land package – some 500 square miles – and includes three former deposits that were mined over two decades beginning in the early 1970’s…VGD senior geologist Robert Sansfacon, who was instrumental in the discovery of Osisko’s (OSK, TSX) Canadian Malartic Deposit, is taking a fresh approach to Joutel and could pull off a repeat of his success at Canadian Malartic…the overall market weakness has driven VGD down into the low 20’s, giving it a market cap of just a few million dollars above its cash…it’s showing signs of being ready to move higher again…it’s currently up a penny at 24 cents…

8 Comments

  1. I think it would be a good time to re-visit Trueclaim, and John Carter. The 8,000 metre phase 2 drill program at the Scadding Gold Project, located 50kms northeast of Sudbury is progressing well. Things take time, and if you do them right you get the desired results. SRK Engineering is assisting the company in building a compliant resource model. Grade’s are high and that combined with John Carter’s 32 years of production experience make for some interesting times ahead.

    Arizona? I do not know if you folks read the recent news release but in addition to some high grade silver numbers, a copper-gold showing was revealed on the Black Diamond Silver Property. Trueclaim has staked additional ground due to this recent discovery. In light of the fact that five producing majors are working in a 20 mile radius of the Black Diamond ground, and the large porphyry-copper systems in the surrounding area this could greatly change the dynamics of this project.

    The TSX-V is really hurting right now, but that will eventually change, and the best deals to be had are in a depressed market. I think BMR should have another chat with John. Projects are advancing in both Ontario and Arizona.

    Comment by George Pesut — June 15, 2011 @ 8:20 am

  2. Hi guys, anything happening with VGN that you know of? Seems that since Mr. Rottenburg left SFF, NOTHING has happened at VGN. And do you know why the revenue from the oil was SO LOW last quarter? Seems these guys are happy to just do NOTHING and collect their pay.

    Comment by john — June 15, 2011 @ 8:23 am

  3. What does the Canucks chart say?! 😉

    GO Canucks GO!!

    Comment by M. — June 15, 2011 @ 8:50 am

  4. BMR,
    GBB and CUI are getting a beat down today 🙁
    could this possibly be the bounce off of their supports (0.38 and 0.16 respectively)?
    blue skies from here on out?

    Comment by Marc — June 15, 2011 @ 10:33 am

  5. Its interesting that the price of copper hasn’t plummeted in similar fashion to last summer’s correction. Any thoughts on this? Is the worst yet to come once coppper and other commodities due correct?

    Any comments BMR?

    QE3 better come soon otherwise we might be in for a wild ride. Although it seems that there is too much liquidity in the system to have another 2008.

    Comment by Andrew M — June 15, 2011 @ 1:43 pm

  6. VGD started its entry into the 20s on 4th May, in my opinion it is unrelated to the current market correction although it doesn’t, of course, help. I’ve asked before without an answer: why was VGD added to the portfolio when the TA was terrible? The fundamentals are all speculative. I can’t get out of the darn stock because it is so thinly traded with large spreads between bids and asks. I hope it pans out but it needs to double just to get back to where it was added to the portfolio.

    Comment by Andrew — June 15, 2011 @ 3:16 pm

  7. Andrew

    good question, I am in the same position on many of these stocks, I couldn’t get out of CQX,or GQC no matter what at this point. I think James West is finally right for a change, going forward it is not the speculative stocks you want to be in , but the ones that have already proved they have something in the ground and are beaten down with the market, gold canyon is his number 1 stock as of yesterday fwiw.

    Comment by GREG H — June 15, 2011 @ 9:55 pm

  8. Looks ugly out there, caused somewhat, because too many, are saying too many things, that they really
    don’t have a clue about. The market is all about fear & greed & today FEAR is at the forefront. I
    have noticed in the past, that some felt excited because gold may go to 2k/oz or even 5k/oz. If i may,
    i will remind those, that in order for gold to go higher, the world goes negative & the more the world
    goes negative, the more the trading public loses their desire to buy & the more they lose their desire
    to buy, there are those who lose their desire to hang in there & they panic, which brings on selling,
    selling & selling. Get me out they cry, i borrowed from the bank, i borrowed from my savings, etc. etc.

    I like the BMR musings, but i feel their writings are somewhat too rosy forward looking. No one knows
    with certainty what the future may bring & we have to be careful, realizing there are those who may
    be influenced by others.

    Anyway, i hope things do change, but we are in different world conditions & one must proceed with
    caution. I don’t know one soul out there, but i do know with certainty, that most had to work hard for
    their cash & nothing came easy, so be careful about transferring it to someone you don’t even know &
    more than likely, is a lot richer than us.

    Good luck !

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by Bert — June 16, 2011 @ 5:39 am

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