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May 2, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Commodities are strengthening again after taking a slight breather to begin the month of May after strong gains in April…Gold jumped 8.1% last month, Silver climbed a whopping  28% while crude oil was up 6.8%…interestingly, the TSX Gold Index gained only 2% last month while the TSX Venture Exchange lost 1.9% after a 4% setback in March…as of 8:20 am Pacific, Gold is now up $8 an ounce to $1,574 and has hit yet another new record high…this is a powerful intra-day reversal as the yellow metal fell as low as $1,540 this morning…Silver dropped about 10% overnight due in part to thin trading because of holidays in many parts of Asia and Europe…it too is strengthening and is currently down just 77 cents an ounce to $47.17…while Silver has been on a near-vertical rise of late, it’s interesting to note that commercial traders’ short positions have dropped to their lowest levels in many months – the commercials are hardly ever on the wrong side of the trade, so this is very interesting and suggests Silver, though clearly in overbought territory at the moment, may have further to go on the upside over the near-term before a substantial correction kicks in…the U.S. Dollar Index rallied to nearly 73.30 overnight on the news of the killing of the world’s most wanted man, Osama Bin Laden, but the greenback has surrendered its gains over the last few hours which makes one wonder what could possibly give it a sustained lift…the U.S. Dollar Index is heading south again and at the moment is down one-quarter of a point at 72.75…while the killing of Bin Laden is a victory for the west, a triumph of good over evil, the war on terrorism continues and may even have to be ramped up if Bin Laden’s death somehow energizes al Qadea and Muslim extremists around the world…that’s the sobering reality…the al Qaeda leadership transition will likely be seamless with Ayman al-Zawahri, Bin Laden’s Egyptian right hand man, probably taking over…his extremist views and his readiness to use deadly force are beyond doubt…he’s also known for his superb organizational skills and is the new public enemy #1 who needs to be taken out…Canadian markets are suggesting a positive outcome in today’s general elections…the NDP may have peaked too early…while there is certainly a degree of unpredictability regarding this election, the final opinion polls suggest to us that the Conservatives will win anywhere from 140 to 155 seats with the NDP replacing the Liberals as the Official Opposition…vote splitting in Ontario could allow the Conservatives to squeak out a razor-thin majority…if they’re able to garner at least 140 seats, which seems likely, this should thwart the possibility of an NDP-led coalition government…it’s unlikely the Liberals will prop up a party that just replaced it as the Official Opposition…the CDNX has started the new month on a sluggish note with a decline of 6 points to 2246 as of 8:20 am PacificGold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) announced a proposed private placement financing after Friday’s closing bell to raise as much as about $5 million, mostly at 61 cents through the issuance of flow-through shares…it was necessary for the company to beef up its treasury so we view the news as very positive even though we prefer to see hard cash financings…GBB is unchanged at 46 cents on light volume…given its bullish chart patterns and the pending start of a major drill program at its properties in Tanzania, we consider Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) to be one of our best opportunities for the month of May…the stock closed up a penny last week to 18 cents and remained above its 50-day moving average (SMA) throughout April…the 50-day has flattened out and appears ready to reverse to the upside in the very near future which would be another bullish development in addition to the just completed “cup with handle” formation…we are particularly excited about Currie Rose’s Sekenke Project in northwest Tanzania which we regard as the company’s #1 play as it holds major blue sky potential…Sekenke covers a lot of promising ground and runs in between and surrounds two former high grade Gold mines including one of Tanzania’s original producers…Sekenke will likely be the first target of CUI’s upcoming drill program…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) has touched its rising 300-day moving average at 34 cents…we have caught on to the VGD story early, just like we did with Gold Bullion, and we’re confident Visible Gold Mines will emerge as a huge winner in northwest Quebec under the geological guidance of Robert Sansfacon…from a business standpoint, the company is led by the very successful Martin Dallaire who has a clear plan to generate shareholder value…Orko Silver Corp. (OK, TSX-V) touched its rising 50-day SMA for the third time this morning since March…the stock made significant upside moves following the previous two occasions it did so…OK is currently off 2 pennies at $2.71…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) is heavily oversold technically after falling 36% last month…the stock is unchanged at 23 cents this morning…it has exceptional support at its 500-day SMA of 20 cents but may have bottomed out last week at 21.5 cents…we suggest investors perform due diligence on Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V) which last week closed a $25 million financing at $1.35…the company has been delivering solid drilling results from its Borden Lake Gold Property in Ontario and also holds the Black Creek chromite deposit at McFauld’s…while the stock’s 50 and 100-day SMA’s are in decline, it has strong support at its rising 200-day SMA around $1.20…Probe hit an all-time high of nearly $2.40 last December…it’s up a penny at $1.36 this morning…

1 Comment

  1. thanks for the updates,
    you should do some DD on Premium explorations if given the time. They are sitting on over million ozs of gold already and they have only drilled 4% of their property in Idaho

    Comment by Seamus — May 2, 2011 @ 9:28 am

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