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May 1, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 3 Of 3

Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) was off 2 pennies for the week at 35 cents but volume was unusually light with just under 400,000 shares changing hands on the CDNX…selling pressure has abated as demonstrated by the CMF and the RSI(14) is at a support level that has held for nearly the past year…the rising 300-day moving average at 34 cents continues to underpin the stock from a technical perspective…BMR was the first to discover Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V), which led to massive profits for some of our readers, and we’re confident history could repeat itself with Visible Gold Mines as we are on this story before anyone else through careful research and due diligence…this is an aggressive company with $8 million in its treasury, strong management and one of the best geologists in the country in Robert Sansfacon who was instrumental in the discovery of Osisko’s (OSK, TSX) Canadian Malartic Deposit…VGD is quickly emerging as an exploration leader in northwest Quebec, specifically in the Rouyn-Noranda region…its flagship property is Joutel, a significant former Gold-Silver producer that gave birth to Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM, TSX) in the 1970’s…VGD just recently optioned Joutel from Agnico-Eagle and exploration will be starting soon…at the moment Visible Gold Mines has two drill programs in progress with one rig at the Silidor Gold Property, also a former producer, and another rig at its Kanasuta claims very close to Vantex Resources‘ (VAX, TSX-V) Moriss Zone discovery at its Galloway Project…following completion of four holes at Kanasuta (two are already complete, reaching depths of 756 and 656 metres, respectively), that drill rig will move east to the area near Richmont Mines‘ (RIC, TSX) growing Wasamac deposit…it’s our belief VGD could have its sights set on acquiring a bigger and more strategic land package around Wasamac…it tried but was not able to work out an option agreement with Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V) in December regarding  seven claims that are tied on to the Wasamac deposit…Cadillac may have been holding out for a better deal…we’ll see what happens on that front but VGD is clearly in a better position than Cadillac to explore that highly prospective and strategic ground…initial drill results from VGD’s Silidor Property were released April 20…each of the first 10 holes at Silidor intersected mineralization and Hole #8 is of particular interest as four sections of Gold were hit between depths of 70.85 metres and 130.5 metres including 2.70 metres grading 5.45 g/t Au and 1.5 metres grading 5.70 g/t Au…this area has never been drilled before and it’s 700 metres southwest of the former Silidor mine…a total of 23 holes have now been completed (assays pending for 13 of them) and drilling continues in a northeasterly direction toward the former mine…things could get extremely interesting in a real hurry at Silidor with geologists of the opinion they could be closing in on a series of ore shoots…Silidor is just one of four major projects Visible Gold Mines is currently advancing…besides Joutel and Cadillac Break, VGD holds the Stadacona-East Property at Rouyn-Noranda which has an inferred resource of 164,000 ounces with potential for significant expansion with additional drilling…the President and CEO of Visible Gold Mines is Martin Dallaire, a very successful entrepreneur in Rouyn-Noranda with an engineering degree who understands the mining industry and what an exploration company needs to do to succeed and build shareholder value…Dallaire is fluently bilingual, presents himself extremely well and knows how to run a business and make money…he thinks big but is focused…he has also recruited some key people including Sansfacon, a highly respected geologist who honed his skills for many years with Lac Minerals…in short, Dallaire has put something together you don’t often see in the junior speculative market – a powerful dynamic of business, geological and marketing expertise with a strategic plan to rapidly build value…the company’s niche and sole geological focus is northwestern Quebec where it has acquired several promising land packages, mostly west and north of Rouyn-Noranda…Dallaire is taking an aggressive approach to exploration and he’s targeting under-explored areas and past producing mines where major new extensions are possible…

GoldQuest Mining (GQX, TSX-V)

GoldQuest is clearly in oversold territory and finished the week down 2 more pennies to 23 cents…it has had only one up day out of the last 11…for the month of April it was off 36% and the 100-day moving average (SMA) began declining after advancing for eight straight months…technically, therefore, some significant damage has been inflicted on the stock but downside risk from current levels is limited given the exceptional support at the 20-cent area which is where the rising 500-day SMA sits…the 200-day SMA at 29 cents also continues to rise and that’s where resistance can be expected for now on the upside…the substantial drop in the share price is due to general market weakness and selling from speculators whose expectations may have been too high regarding initial drill results from the company’s La Escandalosa Project in the Dominican Republic…the results were good and support the resource model but were far from spectacular…17 holes are in from Escandalosa with seven more pending…results confirm that mineralization remains open to the north toward Hondo Valle, a distance of 1200 metres…best assays included 36.5 metres grading 2.74 g/t Au in hole #62, 16 metres grading 2.45 g/t Au in hole #47, and 9.2 metres grading 3.54 g/t Au in hole #48…the fact that any potential southern extension of La Escandalosa may have been displaced by faulting, as reported, is not a big surprise or a major concern as the ground going north has always been considered more prospective and provides GoldQuest with all the opportunity it needs to achieve its goal of a 1 million+ ounce deposit…another round of drilling at Escandalosa is scheduled for the second half of this year…in the meantime the company has other highly prospective targets in the DR to explore including Las Animas and Jengibre…GoldQuest’s potential has not diminished whatsoever yet the share price has dropped in half from its early February high…the company released a 43-101 resource estimate March 2 on its Toral zinc-lead-Silver deposit in Spain…it showed slightly lower grades but much higher overall tonnage than the previous historical non-compliant estimate…as a result, total resources came out 15% higher…resources in the indicated category are 4.04 million tonnes grading 11.8% lead and zinc (5.3% lead, 6.5% zinc) as well as 41 g/t Ag and 0.11% Cu… inferred resources are 4.67 million tonnes grading 9.8% lead and zinc (4.44% lead, 5.4% zinc), 32 g/t Ag and 0.14 Cu…Toral has significant exploration and development upside as a majority of the historical drilling (40,000+ metres) was conducted over one relatively small part of the property…the zone of sulphide mineralization is open along strike to the northwest toward a known lead deposit as well as along strike to the southeast and downdip…the project is also an ideal candidate for a fast-track to production…the deposit is close to a power line, highway and rail line…a large smelter is located just 300 kilometers away by rail…despite the setback last month, GoldQuest is up 18% since we introduced it to BMR readers last fall at 19.5 cents…

Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V)

Greencastle continues to struggle as the stock tumbled 4.5 cents last week to close at 18.5 cents, just one penny above its lowest closing price for the year…at 18.5 cents, Greencastle’s market cap is just $8.5 million which means the stock is essentially trading at cash value…history shows that whenever this occurs in VGN, a terrific buying opportunity has opened up…it’s interesting to note that the stock’s rising 500-day moving average (SMA) and its 1000-day SMA, which has flattened out, have converged at 17 cents…VGN’s strong underlying fundamental value is clearly shown in the latest financials which were released March 24…as of December 31, Greencastle held $5.1 million in cash and $2.6 million in marketable securities…some of those securities are likely shares in Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) while the company disclosed it held 1,148,000 shares of Evrim Resources Corp. (EVM, TSX-V), formerly Avaranta, which started trading on the Venture Exchange January 25…continued firm oil prices will maintain or increase Greencastle’s monthly cash flow of approximately $130,000 as it receives royalties from heavy crude production at Primate in Saskatchewan…Greencastle tripled in value over a six-week period from late October to early December…since the beginning of January, though, the stock has struggled due mostly to impatient investors frustrated with the lack of news…patience is required here…over the years the successful strategy with Greencastle has been to accumulate on weakness when the stock is near cash value and then sell into strength when something develops…with $8 million in working capital, three Gold properties (including land near Richfield’s Blackwater Project) and monthly cash flow from an oil royalty, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Greencastle offers excellent value at current levels…the long-term chart remains very encouraging with rising 200 and 300-day SMA’s that are in no danger of reversing…it’s also important to note that President and CEO Tony Roodenburg, a large shareholder in VGN, refrained from selling any of his holdings during the late 2010 run-up in the share price…this is different from past bullish in the stock and adds further credence to our view that we haven’t seen the highs in this cycle yet from Greencastle – it’s poised for what we believe could be a massive breakout sometime this year…Pinetree Capital has also accumulated more shares in Greencastle, so there’s every reason to be very optimistic regarding this company’s prospects…investors need to be patient, however, as they often do with Roodenburg’s plays…Greencastle is up 32% since we added it back in to the BMR model portfolio over six months ago…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V)

Adventure Gold closed the week 3 pennies higher at 65 cents, one cent above its still-rising 50-day moving average (SMA), on light volume…the AGE chart has some similarities to GBB’s chart last year and the rising 100-day SMA, currently at 56 cents, is providing rock-solid support…the 50-day SMA has started to flatten out and will be tested this month…the company released good results from two more holes April 7 from its recently completed Phase 1 drill program at the Pascalis Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…hole #17 intersected four separate zones of mineralization at depths ranging from 6 metres to 187 metres (5.7 g/t Au over 4.3 metres, 4.6 g/t Au over 5.7 metres, 12.9 g/t Au over 8 metres, and 5 g/t Au over 6.1 metres)…hole #16 intersected 5.5 g/t Au over 5.9 metres…results from five more holes are pending…follow-up drilling will commence once all assays have been received and reviewed…a NI-43-101 resource calculation is planned for later this year…AGE’s latest financials, released April 1, show the company with $3 million in working capital at the end of January…AGE runs an efficient operation and knows where to direct its energies…we expect AGE will begin drilling its Granada Extension Property in the near future…results from Gold Bullion reveal exciting potential over the far western portion of GBB’s Preliminary Block Model which supports Adventure Gold’s geological interpretation that it holds part of the western extension of the LONG Bars Zone…we first mentioned Adventure Gold to our readers in an article September 29, just a couple of days following the company’s announcement that it had acquired land at Granada, when the stock was trading in the low 20′s…we officially added AGE to the BMR model portfolio at just 34 cents October 28…Adventure Gold has been around only since late 2007 and we are impressed by the company’s solid portfolio of properties (19 in six strategic areas in Quebec and Ontario)…also of immediate interest is AGE’s partnership with Lake Shore Gold (LSG, TSX) on the Meunier 144 Property where deep drilling is still testing the down plunge extension of Gold zones located at the Timmins and Thunder Creek deposits…the current initial deep drill hole onto the Meunier JV property is continuing and is on track to reach the 2,400 metre target level by the end of this month…if a discovery is made, AGE could explode…

Sidon International (SD, TSX-V)

Volume in Sidon picked up substantially last week as 4.5 million shares changed hands on the CDNX with the stock trading between 5.5 and 7 cents…it closed Friday at 6 cents, leaving it unchanged for the week…there has been no news from the company since March 14 when it announced a proposed private placement at 8 cents and an option to acquire an 80% interest in a 50-square kilometre property adjacent to Canaco’s (CAN, TSX-V) Handeni discovery in Tanzania…Sidon has yet to recover from a sharp drop in early March following disappointing assay results from its Morogoro East Gold Property…the six shallow holes drilled in December at Morogoro East did not produce significant results, the best hole showing 3 metres grading 1.7 g/t Au…the company has drilled four deeper holes with results for those still pending…what the initial six holes have given Sidon, however, is a better understanding of the Morogoro geological structure which will aid in any future drilling…exploration, especially at such an early stage, is never easy and disappointing early results don’t necessarily mean a property doesn’t hold excellent potential…the company is also trying to develop a placer operation at Morogoro…there is certainly hope here for better days ahead for Sidon…from a technical standpoint, previous support between 9 and 10 cents will now provide resistance…the turnaround in the stock price will start once the 50-day SMA has reversed to the upside and that realistically could occur as early as by the end of this month…Sidon is up 20% since we introduced it to BMR readers a year ago at a nickel…the company currently has approximately 140 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $8.4 million…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V)

Weakness continues in Seafield and the stock seems determined to fill the gap created when it exploded to the upside from 23 cents in early December…SFF closed Friday at 25.5 cents, a loss of four more pennies for the week…it is now below its rising 300-day moving average (SMA) for the first time since late November…the rising 500-day SMA is at 23.5 cents and while we didn’t expect Seafield to drop this low, we’d certainly be shocked if it couldn’t find support in the 23 to 24 cent range…the downside risk from here appears very limited based on technical and fundamental considerations…in otherwords, the risk-reward ratio at the moment is looking extremely attractive with SFF…this is also why we like the warrants that started trading recently (they closed at 6.5 cents Friday) as they provide excellent leverage though one stands the risk of losing most or all of their money in that trade…each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at a price of 75 cents per share and will expire on Friday, Dec. 21, 2012…the company announced April 5 that drilling has commenced at Santa Sofia, about one kilometre north of Dos Quebradas where drilling continues…Seafield geologists have identified a promising porphyry target measuring 1,050 metres in length and 850 metres in width at Santa Sofia with soil values up to 2.3 g/t Au…on March 7, assays were reported from the first three holes completed at Dos Quebradas with hole #2 intersecting a whopping 511 metres grading 0.58 g/t Au…the hole ended in mineralization…hole #1 delivered 269 metres grading 0.37 g/t Au while hole #3 was drilled to define the eastern limit of mineralization and returned no significant results…a total of 10 holes were completed at Dos Quebradas as of early this month…significant intercepts well outside areas of historical drilling would start to get the market excited…the geological case for Seafield’s Quinchia land package is compelling and we’re looking forward to more results from Dos Quebradas as well as initial assays from Santa Sofia…the company has already outlined a NI-43-101 inferred resource of nearly 800,000 ounces at its Miraflores Property, a number that’s expected to increase following the 12-hole, 4,000 metre program completed late last year…patient investors have an opportunity to do extremely well with this play given the geological merits of Quinchia and the real potential for 5 million+ ounces from several potential deposits…the company is sitting on at least $15 million in cash and has a very modest market cap of $39 million…Seafield has gained 325% since we made it the first company in the BMR model portfolio in the summer of 2009…it’s encouraging to see that Anglo-Ashanti Ltd., the world’s third largest Gold producer, plans to spend $300 million over the next three years on further exploration in Colombia…

4 Comments

  1. I would like to a complete list of stocks you have in your bmr portfolio . when they were added and the gain or loss on each stock pick .This information is important to your followers and will be helpfull to you as you wish to grow your site

    Comment by GIL — May 1, 2011 @ 12:09 pm

  2. All you have to do is look at the Week In Review….all the companies are covered and in most cases the entry points are mentioned…..there were three or so companies we deleted over time…….thanks for your message….we will do an update this month on exactly where things stand in terms of the overall picture……

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 1, 2011 @ 1:42 pm

  3. Exercise your right to vote for a Conservative majority which has been the most market-friendly party in Canada, that’s OFCOURSE if U like generating an income from the stock market!!??

    Comment by Forb — May 1, 2011 @ 4:47 pm

  4. If you like generating income, period….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 2, 2011 @ 4:45 am

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