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Commodities, and Economic & Political Trends Impacting
The Resource Sector & Equity Markets
 

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April 29, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has hit another record high but the Gold stocks aren’t joining the party today…as of 8:50 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $8 an ounce at $1,544…volatility continues in Silver…after briefly getting above $50 an ounce yesterday for an all-time record high before sharply retreating, Silver is currently at $48.58 for a gain of a dime over yesterday’s close…the battered U.S. Dollar Index is off slightly at 73.00 and appears destined to test its July, 2008, all-time low of 70.70…the timing of that, however, is uncertain…negative public sentiment regarding the greenback is at extreme (record) levels at the moment which raises the prospect of a significant bounce or short covering rally in the near future which may also help unwind overbought conditions in Gold and Silver…record low U.S. rates of zero to 0.25 percent, an enormous supply of liquidity under the Fed’s purchases of more than $2 trillion of Treasury and mortgage bonds, and improving economic prospects in emerging markets have prompted investors to borrow the lower-yielding dollar in carry trades over the last 18 months…a rough estimate from investment advisory firm Pi Economics in Stamford, Connecticut, shows that the Fed’s easing may have fueled dollar carry trades in excess of $1 trillion, based on U.S. financial institutions’ net foreign assets positions…U.S. consumer sentiment rose in April as the sharp increase in gasoline prices was viewed as being temporary according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released this morning…complaints about high prices were the most frequent since 2008 and half of all households said their finances had worsened…the final reading on the overall index came in at 69.8, matching expectations and up from 67.5 in March…rising gasoline and food prices lifted U.S. consumer spending in March and the increase in overall inflation from a year-ago was the largest in 10 months, U.S. government data showed this morning…consumer spending grew at a 2.7% annualized rate in the first quarter after a 4% increase in the final three months of 2010….the moderation in spending was not as sharp as economists had feared…Canadian markets are tentative and a little nervous ahead of Monday’s elections with strengthening support for the socialist NDP which at the very least is poised to form the Official Opposition…anything short of a solid Conservative minority government is going to be a negative result for Canadian investors…the CDNX is off 6 points at 2240…the Index is down 2.2% for April on this quiet final trading day of the month after a 4.2% decline in March…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is up half a penny at 46 cents…a recovery appears to be underway in GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) which fell as low as 21.5 cents this week, just above its rising 500-day SMA…GQC has very strong technical support at 20 cents and is currently unchanged at 23 cents…Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V) is trading just barely above cash value and is very oversold based on Stochastics (SS-14)…the stock touched 19 cents this morning and is currently off a penny at 20 cents…Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V), which we like very much going into May, is up half a penny on light volume at 18 cents…a major drill program is expected to commence next month at CUI’s Sekenke Gold Project in Tanzania…the chart for Spanish Mountain Gold (SPA, TSX-V) continues to look very positive with the stock up a penny this morning at 65 cents…we suggest bargain hunters do their due diligence on Focus Metals (FMS, TSX-V) which is down this morning for the eighth trading day out of the last nine…the company has a quality graphite project in Quebec and just recently announced a $15 million bought deal financing at $1 per share…FMS is currently off 7 cents at 83 cents…it has fallen below its rising 100-day SMA for the first time since its huge run began last October but the downside risk appears limited given the financing, the oversold technical conditions and a rising 200-day SMA at 55 cents…FMS traded as high as $1.78 March 1…

14 Comments

  1. As for the elections, the big boys are at it again, scare tactics. BMO., Scotia Bank, etc. Nothing will
    change much, whichever party gets in, except maybe the NDP will try to serve the lowly folk with better
    healthcare & that’s what the big boys deslike. Anyone who don’t seem to care about the lowly folk, except
    at election time, i say throw the varmits’ out.

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by Bert — April 29, 2011 @ 8:06 am

  2. Everton Resources (EVR) hold a position in FMS. I don’t think the share price has hit the bottom yet.

    Comment by Andrew — April 29, 2011 @ 8:13 am

  3. WOW! When BMR constantly states ” that patience is required with VGN” they aren’y joking.What a DISASTER the management team here is, along at SFF!! Tony is ” supposedly” trying to unlock ” value”, perhaps he should ” unlock” his bedroom door, and get his ass out of bed and actually do some REAL work!! Without news of some sort of deal on the ” somewhere in the Americas” front, or their ” supposed” high quality prospects in Nevada, or drilling in Nechako, this POS will ONLY continue to drift lower and lower. Fortunately Im in at .10 from a few years ago, but newer investors who bought this POS stock ( hopefully NOT based on BMR’s comments) can re-coup some of their lost money.I know that BMR will state that ” since we picked VGN, our readers are up so and so % but really, it is getting VERY tired to hear/read the same old crap week after week. Perhaps BMR can try to contact Tony ( if you can get him out of bed) and conduct an interview with him and get him to explain what, exactly his plans going forward might be???

    Comment by john — April 29, 2011 @ 8:34 am

  4. Bert, with all due respect, those aren’t scare tactics. I’m not here to try and convince anyone how to vote, but an NDP minority government is a frightening prospect at a time when government and spending in this country must shrink, not expand, and taxes need to go down, not up….I’m from out west and I cannot emphasize enough how the NDP in British Columbia absolutely ravaged the BC economy (also nearly killed the mining industry) just over a decade ago which is they were almost completely wiped out in the 2001 election in BC……I will not live in BC again under an NDP regime….the provincial NDP in BC is no different than the federal NDP….they both think the same….Ontario readers also know the damage the NDP did to that province’s economy many years ago…..the NDP has a science fiction platform and is completely detached from economic reality….if you want to throw out the Conservatives after several years of good economic management, don’t complain when your portfolio goes into the tank…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2011 @ 8:37 am

  5. Don’t get me wrong, I have a great deal of respect for the boys at BMR, they do an excellent job of bringing home run opportunities to readers,but the repetitive comments is tiring.I remember BMR telling me that ” you don’t hire an IR firm like Douglas McKay and Associates if you have nothing to say”, perhaps D.McKay stubbed their toe on this one? I wonder how many of their clients who MAY have bought into the VGN story, are noe FUMING over the over 50% loss of capital? Now, Im not accusing anyone of anything, but looks like Tony really pulled one or two on a few people.Without the monthly oil revenues, Tony could very well be on welfare, where his shareholders may soon find themselves. Tony if you are reading this, START SELLING pieces of the comapny. VGN gets into coal when its hot, then shale when it is the flavour of the month, how long has VGN had the Nevada gold property?? Years, and done ABSOLUTELY NOTHING with it!! Now they buy into the Nechako, and MOST likey will NEVER drill it.Tony seems to enjoy riding the backs of others success, and hopes that people will buy his stock(s) because of ” area” plays.I am curious to know WHERE in the Americas he is looking for a new gold acquisition?? Downtown Detroit at a Pawn Shop??

    Comment by john — April 29, 2011 @ 8:44 am

  6. John, I share your frustration with VGN……I really don’t understand what happened there as Tony had momentum in his favor and was giving all the right signals about making something happen….having said that, I’m certain he will still make this fly but timing of course is the issue…..this underscores the importance of holding a basket of these juniors as sometimes there are negative surprises to go along with positive surprises….and sometimes things work out exactly as they are expected to…..the good news with VGN is that this is a company trading nearly at cash value at the moment, lots of value there…….the downside risk is quite limited – the only question is how long will one have to wait for a move….personally, I think they’ll make something happen at Blackwater over the summer….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2011 @ 8:52 am

  7. Jon, I appreciate your comments, and I own a very large basket of jr’s. The thing is NO company I own shares I own shares in treat their share holders with as much contempt as tony does.I get the impression that he thinks TOO highly of himself, lets face it, he is NO Peter Munk or Rob McCewan, but Im sure he likes to pretend he is.And thats just it, he DID have momentum going, and he shows his AMATUER skills by not pushing forward.To the SFF share holders his ” signals” were on the wall when he unloaded a massive ammount of stock.IF VGN is only trading at cash value, it is interesting to note that Tony has NOT been a buyer of his own stock.It is my opinion that Tony is a 1st rate clown, and a pretender, wanting nothing more than to hang out with the BIG BOYS.

    Comment by john — April 29, 2011 @ 9:11 am

  8. PS: I hope the boys at BMR had a Blessed easter with thier loved ones. Best regards.

    Comment by john — April 29, 2011 @ 9:11 am

  9. Jon – If you want to throw out the Conservatives after several years of good economic management, don’t complain when your portfolio goes into the tank…

    Bert – Jon i didn’t have you lumped in with the big boys, BMO & Scotia. After reading the above noted sentence,
    maybe i should have, because i do sense a scare tactic. Anyway, i will take my chances & hopefully, the VARMITS
    will be thrown out. R !

    Comment by Bert — April 29, 2011 @ 9:54 am

  10. Hi Jon,

    I have mentionned Prodigy Gold few week ago. Now the three year chart look better than ever!

    They are covered by Byron Capital, this one will explose in the mounth to come!

    Good luck

    Martin

    PS. Purchase some GQC in my syster’s porfolio. What do you see in the near with them? (this one was our favorite few mounth ago 🙁

    Horrible scenario with SFF i don’t catch this one??

    Comment by Martin — April 29, 2011 @ 1:11 pm

  11. Ticker for Prodigy Gold is PDG-TSV for readers

    Comment by Martin — April 29, 2011 @ 1:18 pm

  12. Hi Jon
    Just thought I would get your response to GBB’s financing announced after market.
    It seems the treasury needed topping up (this was not indicated in Frank’s recent interviews),
    but they kept the amount low at this time, in order to keep dilution to a minimum.
    How do you think the market will respond?

    Comment by Bob — April 29, 2011 @ 2:40 pm

  13. Im happy with the PP, and in my opinion i think this will be a good thing for the company and the market will see this as a non event. Maybe a positive.

    Comment by jeff — April 29, 2011 @ 2:59 pm

  14. At least the majority of the PP was done at .61 ………we should see a steady rise from here and leading up to the 43-101. They have the cash……and the rumour is another drill soon…..third drill that is on the Granada property….hopefully 4 that would be even better. If that is the case, then one drill can move to Aukeko and we will still have two drills on Long Bar Zone 1.

    Comment by Dan — April 29, 2011 @ 3:29 pm

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