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April 26, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold dipped as low as $1,492 this morning but has bounced back to $1,500…as of 8:40 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $8 an ounce…Silver, which reacted sharply yesterday after touching nearly $50 an ounce, is $1.80 lower at $45.18…as we showed in a chart Sunday, Silver is definitely in overextended territory at the moment, so there is certainly a heightened risk of some additional weakness to allow the current overbought condition to unwind prior to the next leg up…ultimately, triple-digit Silver during this cycle appears very plausible…while not as overbought as Silver at the moment, Gold nonetheless appears due for a minor pullback and a short rest before resuming its climb as John shows in an updated chart below…

Our “big picture” view of Gold remains unchanged, of course, with so many bullish fundamental and technical factors at play…even before the end of the first half of this year, investors may look back at “$1,500” in April, 2011, as an incredible bargain…the U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, down one-fifth of a point at 73.90…crude oil is flat at $112.13…U.S. consumer confidence rose in April as inflation expectations eased somewhat and consumers felt better about the short-term outlook, according to a private sector report released this morning…the Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 65.4 in April from a revised 63.8 in March…the reading topped analysts’ forecasts for 64.5…U.S. single-family home prices fell for an eighth straight month in February, inching closer to an April 2009 trough, a closely watched survey revealed today…average home prices across the United States are back to levels where they were in the summer of 2003…prices in the 20 metropolitan cities surveyed have fallen 3.3 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations….all eyes will be on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who will be holding a media briefing tomorrow afternoon, late in the trading session, following the completion of the FMOC meeting and a statement from the Fed…Bernanke will no doubt be very careful with his language when pressed regarding whether or not the Fed will continue with its quantitative easing measures beyond June…the possibility of some major volatility in the markets over the next couple of days certainly exists…the CDNX is weaker again this morning in part due to normal month-end selling pressures which will abate by tomorrow…as of 8:40 am Pacific, the CDNX is off 21 points at 2239 – just 18 points above last week’s low…as John’s chart showed last week, this market has strong technical support at 2200 and a positive finish to the month would not be surprising…bargain hunters should be keeping a close eye on several situations…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) is clearly in oversold territory and has touched its rising 300-day moving average (SMA)…GQC is currently off 1.5 cents at 23.5 cents and the odds of a drop below very strong support at 20 cents appear to be highly remote…after six straight down days, Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is up 3 pennies at 47.5 cents…we fully expect the LONG Bars Zone is going to deliver big-time for patient investors…we introduced GBB to our readers at 7 cents back in December, 2009…our next potential 10-bagger in northwest Quebec is Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) which is currently off a penny at 36 cents…there are several exciting dynamics at play with VGD that the market simply hasn’t picked up on yet but that’s okay as this is allowing many of our readers to accumulate positions…we are preparing a special alert on VGD pertaining to various developments as well as speculation regarding potential additional property acquisitions…Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) has completed a “cup with handle” pattern and the possibility of a breakout in May is very possible given technical and fundamental factors as the company is expected to begin drilling its highly prospective Sekenke Project which surrounds and runs in between two former high grade Gold mines in Tanzania’s prolific Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt…Currie Rose is up half a penny at 17.5 cents…more encouraging drill results from the Scadding Gold Property near Sudbury have just been released by Trueclaim Exploration (TRM, TSX-V) which has optioned Scadding from Currie Rose…the best result from six holes drilled in the North Zone is 10 metres grading 3.5 g/t Au…TRM, which we like a lot, is up half a penny at 17 cents…Adventure Gold’s (AGE, TSX-V) chart continues to be a picture of beauty and reminds us a lot of GBB’s chart last year…AGE is up 2 pennies at 65 cents…another company with a fabulous chart is Orko Siliver Corp. (OK, TSX-V) which has pulled back from an all-time high of $3.20 yesterday…Orko is currently off 21 cents at $2.81…Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX) is down for the seventh straight trading session and has dipped just below its 100-day SMA in a pattern that looks very similar to the stock’s late January low which was an incredible buying opportunity…GPR is down 28 cents at $3.14…

17 Comments

  1. Hi,

    VGN holders may want to take a look at this website seeing as there is little info forthcoming from them at the moment. This is the claim right next door. It may be of interest in helping to get a grasp of the local geography / geology. Just for your DD.

    Parlane Resources

    Comment by Herb — April 26, 2011 @ 8:14 am

  2. Sorry I should have added next door to their Nechako property.

    Comment by Herb — April 26, 2011 @ 8:18 am

  3. Hello Jon, You mention VGD as being the next potential 10-bagger. If you used a ranking system for the BMR Portfolio would this rank it as No. 1? Do you have a timeline in mind and is the ten-fold increase from the price it was added to the portfolio (.415 I think) or from the current .36? Thanks

    Comment by Andrew — April 26, 2011 @ 9:08 am

  4. Thanks Herb, I’m not a VGN holder but I’ll check out the link as I’m interested in TYE which has a boundary with RVC and they do actually drill! Thanks.

    Comment by Andrew — April 26, 2011 @ 9:11 am

  5. Hi Andrew, I like to avoid ranking systems as I don’t want to underestimate the potential of a particular company…but VGD is definitely a go-to situation at the moment for all the reasons outlined in last week’s article…this is a company with a very aggressive game plan and they are in the midst of carrying it out…GBB went from $7 million or so in market cap when we introduced it to over $140 million….we introduced VGD at 40 cents…besides Joutel, which I believe could be huge, VGD has Silidor and other projects but I think even more important…my gut tells me, and the evidence tells me, pay close attention to what could unfold at and around Wasamac and the implications this could have for VGD…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 26, 2011 @ 9:36 am

  6. I am checking out TYE, I think it was you who mentioned it.

    Comment by herb — April 26, 2011 @ 9:40 am

  7. Thanks Jon – much appreciated. I don’t want to hold more than one stock in the same geographical area so I’m assuming that VGD would be the key player to hold in this part of Quebec rather than wait to see if CQX get the ball rolling?

    Comment by Andrew — April 26, 2011 @ 9:44 am

  8. Interesting article on the Junior Mining Stocks and thier lagging behind gold and silver

    stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Apr/26/Coming-junior-stock-eruption

    Comment by GREG H — April 26, 2011 @ 10:13 am

  9. all I can say right now is look out market below

    Comment by david — April 26, 2011 @ 10:25 am

  10. Doesn’t look good does it David. Share prices are lower than they were when we approached the three-wave correction in mid-March. I can’t read charts but aren’t we on C of an ABC correction (just from comparison to the CDNX chart in mid March)?

    Comment by Andrew — April 26, 2011 @ 10:36 am

  11. B

    Comment by david — April 26, 2011 @ 10:42 am

  12. andrew – sorry, I say B cause this could be an ABCDE correction in which case we are on C with D and E to come. I think a small correction to the upside coming soon first couple weeks of May, that would be D. Then a hard correction till the end of June which would be E

    Comment by david — April 26, 2011 @ 11:06 am

  13. Thanks for your comments David – they are appreciated. I’ll look at the chart and see if I can determine B of a 3-wave correction and C of a 5-wave.

    Comment by Andrew — April 26, 2011 @ 11:13 am

  14. I am steel holding SFF even with a lost of 60 percent,what do you think of that.

    Comment by claudette — April 26, 2011 @ 3:59 pm

  15. I bought VGD at .38 cents today. I couldn’t give them a high rating because they only have 163,000 ounces and no exciting drill results. I rated them 2.5 stars (out of 5). Currently, I’m only investing in companies I rate at 3.5 stars or higher. For VGD, I made an exception. Here are my comments:

    I like this company, even though they do not yet have a mine. They are a new company, with excellent management and a skilled geologist named Robert Sansfacon. In 2011, they plan to drill 40,000 meters. It is hard to find gold mines (nearly impossible!), but they are looking in a good location where 3 mines have opened in the past few years. I rarely invest in company’s that do not have at least a potential project that looks like a possible mine, but this one I took a chance. They have 35,000 acres of claims in a good location and have a smart geologist. I think they have a good chance. This is a high speculation stock that might not payoff. Sometimes you have to trust your gut. With only a $17 million market cap, they already have a 163,000 ounce project and will likely expand that resource. Thus, I think the downside is low and the upside excellent. Note: I am only doing this with a small investment of 5,000 shares. For high risk investments like this you want to start small, then double up if they find more gold and look like a winner.

    Comment by Newager — April 26, 2011 @ 5:50 pm

  16. Good advice newager!

    Comment by Herb — April 27, 2011 @ 12:34 am

  17. Good comments, Newager…you mention the Stadacona-East resource but the key drivers for this stock I believe are going to be the Joutel Project – a significant former producer of Gold and Silver – the Cadillac Break Project, which I’m speculating will expand around Richmont’s Wasamac deposit, and Silidor where the company is getting some encouraging early drill results…I see a lot of excitement coming into this play during this second quarter…all the ingredients are there…the drills will be turning like crazy and VGD is determined to get its message out…Joutel will be a game-changer for this company…the market hasn’t woken up to that yet but it will…in my discussion with Sansfacon, he’s very confident there are new discoveries to be made there and how many times have we seen that with former producers? This is Granada all over again IMHO and Joutel was an even bigger producer with substantial silver as well plus copper…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 27, 2011 @ 4:24 am

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