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April 25, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold hit another all-time high for the sixth consecutive trading session today, climbing to $1,519 an ounce…as of 7:45 am Pacific, however, the yellow metal has given up all of its gains today and is currently unchanged at $1,505…Silver came within shouting distance this morning of its January 18, 1980, record high of $50.36…it touched $49.20 but has also reversed and at the moment is down 33 cents at $46.28…crude oil is 72 cents lower at $111.57 after jumping above $113 earlier thanks to unrest in Syria and Yemen…the U.S. Dollar Index is essentially unchanged at 74.01…the U.S. Commerce Department has reported a surprising increase in the number of home sales for the month of March (they rose 11% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 300,000 homes) which follows three straight monthly declines…the rate however is still well below what economists regard as healthy…China’s central bank is considering setting up new investment funds to diversify holdings in the country’s swelling foreign exchange reserves, the world’s largest stockpile, local media reported today…the proposed funds include one or more to invest a part of China’s foreign reserves in energy and precious metal markets and another that could intervene in foreign exchange markets, the New Century Weekly said, citing sources close to the central bank…China’s foreign exchange reserves surged to $3.05 trillion in the first quarter, heightening long-standing worries about how China can effectively manage the holdings and not become overly exposed to the greenback…today’s report left many questions unanswered, including the size of any such fund and the timing of their possible launch…it also did not say why new funds were needed when China already has a sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corp (CIC), which was established in 2007 and was entirely funded from foreign exchange reserves…China has raised the minimum income tax threshold to Rmb 3000/month from Rmb 2002/month…this change is expected to help boost consumer spending and help increase purchasing power in the wake of rising food prices…according to news website Hexun.com, Zhour Wangjun, a deputy director of NDRC’s pricing department, has said China’s average wages will grow 15% annually in the five years through 2015…the growing prospect of a Conservative majority government in Canada, with elections a week from today, should be greeted enthusiastically by investors in the Canadian resource industry…the Bloc Quebecois, desperate to fight off an unexpected challenge from the NDP in that province, is bringing out arch-separatist Jacques Parizeau today to help shore up its sagging campaign…that strategy, while it may halt the slide for the Bloc in Quebec, is a huge gift however for Stephen Harper’s national campaign as Parizeau is so radioactive outside of Quebec…in BMR’s view this will all but ensure a Conservative majority government next Monday, much to the chagrin of the many leftists in the Canadian media whose poster boy has been Michael Ignatieff…the growing power of the Federal Reserve will be on full display Wednesday when Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a first-ever news conference following the FOMC meeting…undoubtedly Bernanke will be very careful in choosing his words…our expectation is that he will emphasize the continued threats to the American economic recovery including stubbornly high unemployment, a housing crisis that has likely not yet bottomed despite this morning’s improved numbers, and the U.S. debt situation which is going to force austerity measures that will dampen short-term growth prospects…the CDNX got as high as 2291 this morning but has since reversed in tandem with precious metals and New York and Toronto…as of 7:45 am, the CDNX is off 15 points at 2267…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is down another half penny this morning at 46.5 cents…the stock slid 6 cents last week but given the multi-million ounce potential of the LONG Bars Zone, the current $75 million market cap has to be viewed as an incredible bargain for patient and long-term investors…the initial 43-101 resource estimate, slated for release sometime over the summer, should significantly rekindle investor interest in this play…over the last seven weeks, as John’s chart below shows, GBB has traded within its 300 and 500-day moving averages (SMA)…that trend is expected to continue over the short term but at some point, for fundamental reasons, we expect a breakout to the upside…

Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) has completed a bullish “cup with handle” pattern and could be ready for another powerful move…this seems to jive with the fundamentals as the company is expected to launch a drill program at its highly prospective Sekenke Project in northwest Tanzania within possibly the next few weeks…Sekenke runs in between and surrounds two former high grade Gold mines including one of Tanzania’s original producers…our take is that there is a strong potential for extensions to those deposits or, quite possibly, the main deposits haven’t even been uncovered yet and could be on ground held by Currie Rose…the company has already identified a large structure (12 km x 800 metres) within a shear zone on the margins of a large granite intrusion that hosts numerous quartz reefs of the same type and even larger than those that developed at the nearby historic mines…it also wouldn’t surprise us if Currie Rose makes an attempt at acquiring the former Sekenke Mine…no matter what, things should get very interesting in a hurry for CUI whose Sekenke land package currently totals approximately 300 square kilometres…CUI is up a penny at 18 cents…warrants in Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) have been listed for trading this morning and are currently at 4 cents…we can’t help but believe that Seafield is very close to a bottom with the stock off another penny this morning at 28.5 cents…Seafield’s 500-day moving average, which has supported the stock since the start of its big move during the latter half of 2009, is at 23 cents so the risk-reward ratio at the moment seems very attractive…the company has at least $15 million in cash and two drill rigs in operation at its Quinchia Property in Colombia…Seafield has a great chance to make a discovery at Dos Quebradas or Santa Sofia…the history of this stock has shown that it’s a smart buy during periods of weakness such as we’re seeing now…it’s funny, though, how many investors think…they’re often more comfortable chasing stocks that are going up in value as opposed to accumulating positions in ones that are dropping in value…International Northair Mines (INM, TSX-V) has an interesting chart and a Silver play of merit in Mexico that is worth keeping a close eye on…INM is 7 cents higher this morning at 68 cents…other situations we recommend investors perform due diligence on include Levon Resources (LVN, TSX-V), Orko Silver Corp. (OK, TSX-V)…Spanish Mountain Gold (SPA, TSX-V) continues to look very strong…a large offer at 68 cents didn’t stand in the way of the stock this morning which is now up 4 pennies at 70 cents…

7 Comments

  1. Hi Jon, what do you think about GPR at these prices? There was a downgraded rating to hold today from an analyst, but with silver doing well I’m not sure if this warrants a selloff.

    Thanks

    Comment by George — April 25, 2011 @ 8:54 am

  2. BMR, I enjoy reading your commentaries daily.

    With today’s GBB chart and the CDNX chart while back, I have noticed a divergence between the rising price and RSI. I wish I have known that back in last December. That would have been a great time to lock in the gain. Hindsight is 20/20.

    Would you check on divergence more often when the market is going up in the future? This is not to criticize you or anything like that.
    Thanks.

    Comment by Bruce — April 25, 2011 @ 8:55 am

  3. Thoughts On Seafield – Been following your analysis on Seafield ever since the inevitable pop in December 2010 and am quite humored to hear your stating support is now at 500 Day average! Before it was 150Day, then the 300day, now a 500Day average!! Let’s not kid ourselves that this stock has NO respect from the market and that goes a long way as well in building Shareholder value. It upsets me that BMR is continuously recommending this play, when in fact Management is weak on News Releases, it is obvious they do not care for building value as they would have done something to instill investor confidence. Most Investors are selling at losses at this point.

    Comment by Mike — April 25, 2011 @ 9:32 am

  4. Mike,

    BMR is not the only people stll recommeding SFF, Brien Lundin still likes it too, the drills will eventually tell the truth one way or the other, you are right though in getting no respect, I agree management has sure messed up any confidence investors had which is why we are at the price we are at.

    Comment by GREG — April 25, 2011 @ 10:42 am

  5. Hi Jon, I agree with your comments regarding the lack of action by CQX on it’s Wasamac property. I sent an email to investor relations, expressing my displeasure with the non-action and requested at least an update as their shareholders deserve it. It’s not like CQX hasn’t had the time to do something. They have been talking about the property for months…..I believe in the potential of the property and if management has the same opinion then they should put their money where their mouth is.

    Comment by Dan — April 25, 2011 @ 3:19 pm

  6. Hi Bruce, thank you for your comment re divergence.
    Yes the negative divergence is very important and powerful in TA for making investors aware of a future weakening in price. However the divergence gives no indication of when the price will start to decline so it is not wise to automatically sell when a divergence occurs. The investor is wise to watch price action closely so as to detect when the decline starts.
    Hope this helps.

    Comment by John - BMR — April 25, 2011 @ 3:39 pm

  7. Hi George, I like GPR a lot, especially if it drops to its 100-day SMA, or just below that, in the very near future, as it did in late January….down 6 days in a row now…the bottom could come anytime this week……bargain hunters should be watching closely….at $3 you’d have to consider this a steal IMHO……..

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 25, 2011 @ 3:55 pm

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