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April 1, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is rebounding after dropping as low as $1,412 following the U.S. March jobs report…as of 9:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $8 an ounce at $1,424…Silver fell just above $37 but is now off only 2 cents for the day at $37.65 while the U.S. Dollar Index has reversed sharply…it climbed as high as 76.60 but is now off one-tenth of a point at 75.96…U.S. employment recorded a second straight month of solid gains in March and the jobless rate fell to a two-year low of 8.8 percent, marking a decisive shift in the labor market that should help to underpin the economic recovery…nonfarm payrolls rose 216,000 last month, the largest increase since May, the Labor Department said this morning…January and February employment figures were revised to show 7,000 more jobs than previously reported…most experts agree the American economy is still facing significant headwinds and it could take several years to get the unemployment rate much lower…massive debts at the municipal, state and federal government levels pose serious risks to the economic recovery while the housing crisis has yet to bottom out…there will be considerable debate in the days and weeks ahead as to when the Fed’s easing cycle will start to come to an end…rate hikes still appear to be a long way off but Bernanke faces the critical decision of whether or not to continue with the Fed’s quantitative easing program beyond mid-year…in other economic news out of the U.S. today, the manufacturing sector grew at a marginally slower pace in March after accelerating at its fastest rate in nearly seven years the month before while construction spending fell more than expected in February to its lowest level since October, 1999…China’s official March purchasing managers’ Index (PMI) data, released this morning morning, showed the country’s manufacturing sector grew for a 25th straight month while factory inflation eased…New York and Toronto are both higher today…the CDNX is off 3 points at 2293 but seems to be strengthening…BMR has added Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) to its model portfolio…we’ve mentioned this company quite frequently the past few months in our “Morning Musings” and we’ve researched it thoroughly during that time…the article we just posted outlines the “big picture” with VGD as we see it…this is an aggressive and well-run company with many strengths – not just its properties but its people…the fact Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX) would cut a deal with Visible Gold on its Joutel Property (announced yesterday) speaks volumes…we’ll be getting into more detail with Visible Gold Mines in the near future…technically, the stock has shown tremendous support in the mid-to-upper 30’s and the 40-day moving average (SMA), in decline since December, has just swung positive…the 50-day has flattened out and could reverse to the upside as early as next week…the company has a healthy balance sheet with nearly 20 cents per share in cash…VGD is currently down 2 pennies at 40 cents…Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V) is one of the CDNX trading leaders this morning…ABI is unchanged at 17 cents on volume of 2.5 million shares…the company is in the process of completing a financing at 18 cents that could add more than $5 million to its coffers…while the announcement of the financing took the wind out of the stock’s sails recently, it’s a positive move for the longer term as it will give the company the money it needs to possibly ramp up exploration efforts at its two key properties – Elder-Tagami and Abcourt-Barvue…both are former producers and contain significant 43-101 resources, especially the Abcourt-Barvue Silver-zinc deposit, but we’d rather see the company focus on continued and aggressive exploration at both properties rather than worrying about putting either into production…such an approach – making this an exploration play only – would be a much simpler strategy and would set-up ABI as a potential takeover target…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is off a penny at 42.5 cents on light volume…given 500 holes of historical drilling in addition to initial results from the more than 250 holes GBB has drilled, it’s hard to imagine the 43-101 coming out this summer won’t confirm the company is sitting on a potential deposit of several million ounces or more…we encourage investors to keep focused on the Gold at Granada because we continue to believe there’s lots of it…it’s funny how people get excited about a Wal-Mart Rollback sale but often don’t see the same opportunities in what amounts to a stock rollback sale……Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V) continues to head higher…it’s up another 30 cents this morning to $7.80…Richfield has been a tremendous success story which underscores the importance of staying focused on the fundamentals…sometimes it takes a while for the market to fully catch on to what a company is developing…investors who see the opportunity early and stick with the story can make a fortune…we added RVC to the BMR model portfolio in December, 2009, at $1.20…the stock fell as low as 90 cents in late June/early July of last year even when the fundamentals were improving…Richfield has already outlined 4 million ounces (43-101 indicated and inferred) at its Blackwater Project in central British Columbia and the current round of drilling will upgrade and likely add to those resources…a company with an even potentially bigger deposit on its hands is Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V) with its Springpole Project about 100 kilometres northeast of the Red Lake mining area…Gold Canyon has been releasing some terrific results and is about to commence some deeper drilling with a fourth rig…a lot of our readers like stocks that are trading under 50 cents, like we do, but jumping in on a play like Gold Canyon at $3.30 makes a lot of sense if this company has an excellent shot at proving up 5+ million ounces as it does…assuming Springpole does contain at least 5 million ounces, each ounce in the ground is currently valued at only $75 on a fully diluted basis…plenty of upside in this play yet just based on simple math…GCU is currently unchanged at $3.30…

7 Comments

  1. ABI’s sells are through Anonymous and Buys are through Scotia Capital. Not much other interest in buying but 1 million Asks .175 – .18

    Comment by Andrew — April 1, 2011 @ 9:58 am

  2. Hello Evevryone, just wondering if anyone has researched the volumes in the CDNX for the past few weeks? If so, is volume light in most sectors or is it predominantly low in precious metals? If no one has looked into this I’ll try to research it this weekend. Thanks.

    Comment by Andrew — April 1, 2011 @ 10:22 am

  3. A good NR just out from ABI stating that they didn’t participate in the Howlett Research report – a little late because I think the report instilled some fears. I sold my shares without a loss and I’m glad I’m out of it and will wait until Consolidated have reduced their insider position before I revisit it.

    Comment by Andrew — April 1, 2011 @ 11:27 am

  4. I sold half of my position in ABI and left the other half in until the dust settles. Regarding the Howlett Research report, I took it as a positive report on ABI.
    MY one question is what is a fair ball park sp for ABI in a take over or merge. Thanks Dan

    Comment by Dan — April 1, 2011 @ 1:19 pm

  5. “each ounce in the ground is currently valued at only $75 on a fully diluted basis” Only? I believe $75/oz in the ground for an exploration company is pretty good. There are a lot of undervalued explorers out there with 1,2,5Moz in the ground with values around $10-$20/oz. That I believe is low and a lot of money can be made when they move forward with their projects. I Don’t mean to be harsh or anything, just my honest opinion, and open for comments if I’m wrong.

    I know you mentioned you would post a list of companies that one should watch closely if the cdnx got into a correction. Will you post these in any outcome or only if there is a correction?

    Thanks again for a great job with the blog.

    Comment by J.C. — April 1, 2011 @ 7:35 pm

  6. J.C., I understand your point, and you’re correct in stating there are some undervalued situations out there….the point I was trying to get across is that a) Springpole seems to be coming together exceptionally well – rapidly growing deposit which the market likes; b) 5 million projected ounces is conservative (Fraser MacKenzie’s mining analyst is already estimating 5.6 to 5.8 million) and could yet increase by 50% or more; c) a 43-101 is expected later in the year. Based on all of that, I would argue the current valuation is extremely attractive given how this could unfold over the next six months. With or without a 43-101, the market will give more value per ounce of gold when there are more ounces in the ground – i.e., 4 million ounces gets a higher per ounce valuation than 2 million ounces….the market likes the bigger projected numbers it’s seeing for Springpole and is increasing the valuation as a result….this one’s a winner….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 1, 2011 @ 9:54 pm

  7. Jon, makes sense. Are you guys aware of NioGold? 1Moz NI-43-101, huge landpackage of 125sqKm. in Malartic/Val’Dor area. And a JV with Aurizon that pays for the drilling. Think they have 4 drills turning at the moment and getting nice grades. The marketcap is just ~$30M..

    Comment by J.C. — April 2, 2011 @ 9:53 am

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