Gold has traded between $1,226 and $1,236 so far today…as of 10:15 am Pacific, the yellow metal is off $1 an ounce at $1,227…Silver is 3 cents lower at $16.27…Copper is up 2 pennies at $2.52…Nickel is 7 cents higher at $4.13…Crude Oil has rallied 71 cents to $46.23 after its “flash crash” while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-tenth of a point to 98.69…
Contrarians will like this: A popular ETF that tracks the price of Silver, the iShares Silver Fund, posted its 14th straight session of losses yesterday going back to April 17, extending its longest losing streak ever…the drop during that time has been 11.5%…today, as of 10:15 am Pacific, the SLV is flat at $15.43 with a 15th straight losing session possible…extreme oversold technical conditions…
The CRB Index has also been taking a drubbing recently, touching key support yesterday at 177 (the bottom of a horizontal channel in place for the past year)…commodities have come under pressure in part due to officials in China spouting tough language on curbing local government debt, a key feedstock for commodity demand…another factor has been April’s weak readings on Chinese factory activity…regulators in that country are under intense pressure to demonstrate progress on “deleveraging” following expressions of concern from President Xi Jinping and other top officials…past attempts to rein in local debt have proven temporary and ineffectual in terms of actually reducing China’s debt as a proportion to the size of its economy…however, those efforts have been effective at spooking the markets…
Oil Update
Oil prices are rebounding from 5-month lows after the Saudis jumped in with some bullish rhetoric regarding an extension to December’s production-cutting agreement…
Bloated global Crude Oil inventories are declining but not as quickly as OPEC expected, adding to pressure on the producer group to extend supply cuts…markets are questioning whether OPEC’s current phase of production cuts totaling 1.2 million barrels a day, effective from January and the first since 2008, are enough to rebalance the market when U.S. producers are aggressively increasing supply and U.S. inventories remain stubbornly above 5-year highs…the drawdown in U.S. inventories is not going to be fast and furious…meanwhile, Gulf producers need money to balance their budgets and the Saudis are preparing for a huge IPO as they sell 5% of their their state-owned Oil firm…declining Crude prices don’t help those efforts…the Saudi deputy crown prince has said that Aramco’s value could be $2 trillion U.S. which means that 5% would fetch $100 billion for the Kingdom…but since the staggering $2 trillion valuation was first aired, institutional investors, fund managers, and industry professionals have been trying to find valuation metrics that add up to this figure…
WTIC 15-Month Weekly Chart
This 15-month weekly chart shows how WTI has fallen below an uptrend line in place since the 2nd quarter of last year…the drop below $48 is what contributed to yesterday’s sharp sell-off and margin calls overnight that sent Crude as low as $43.76 before a rebound kicked in…
It’s possible, though very uncertain, that Crude could reassert support above the uptrend line by month-end…declining 50 and 200-day moving averages (SMA’s) just below $50 are problematic, however…near-term, WTI will likely attempt to climb back above $48 where it will meet strong new resistance…dramatic developments related to fundamentals will be necessary in our view to reverse the technical damage over the next few weeks…in the meantime, $43 is the new support…if that can hold, Crude has a good chance to bounce back powerfully over the summer as long as fundamentals improve…
The Threat From Iran
Dealing with the problem of Iran, a major destabilizing force in the Middle East, could have bullish implications for Oil prices at some point this year…the Pentagon, particularly under the new Trump administration, is increasingly eyeing a very pronounced Iran-North Korea military connection (yet Obama gave the Iranians a gift with an outrageous nuclear agreement)…non-proliferation experts have long suspected North Korea and Iran are sharing expertise when it comes to their rogue missile programs…earlier this week, Iran attempted to launch a cruise missile from a “midget” submarine in the Strait of Hormuz with intelligence reports saying the submarine was based on a Pyongyang design, the same type that sank a South Korean warship in 2010…according to U.S. defense officials, Iran was attempting to launch a Jask-2 cruise missile underwater for the first time but the launch failed…
In Today’s Morning Musings….
1. A fresh look at Gold – a turnaround is close…
2. What’s up with the Venture?…
3. CSR will “rock” on Re-2OX…
4. Daniel’s Den – “Friday Footnotes”, a review of 14 stocks…
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Wondering if we will here from GGI today after the market closes in regards to the VTEM has been completed for the E&L and possibly Brass Hill.That would be great news heading into the weekend.
Comment by pole — May 5, 2017 @ 11:46 am
I would suggest that Wednesday morning after the election woul be more effective timing, Pole. No need to waste a bullet today.
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 5, 2017 @ 4:07 pm
That makes a lot of sense Jon. Thanks.Hope the voters in BC stay the course.
Comment by pole — May 5, 2017 @ 4:39 pm
Was discussing market letters vs brokerage fees with a few buddies. Our conclusion was good info is pretty important when investing but especially when speculating in the junior markets. I personally use both. Brokers to get me into good financing and market letters for my trading.
Good market letters usually cost between $400-$1400 US per year. One $700 annual rate is equal to 7 trades at a full service brokerage firm. Big difference between the two is that market letters provide a lot of education if you have the time. Brokers only provide a Cole’s Notes version of why something a good buy.
Beware of free or really cheap market letters. They could end up costing more then you could ever imagine.
Comment by mcKowski — May 5, 2017 @ 10:17 pm
So how does the election affect the golden triangle Jon? Will investment dollars pull out if the NDP get in?
Comment by weatheritout — May 6, 2017 @ 4:28 am
The election will impact all of B.C., weatheritout. In the worst case scenario being an NDP majority govt., which seems less likely the past 10 days given that the Liberal free enterprise coalition base appears to be firming up as it usually does right before an election, it would pretty much be business as usual for the summer.
Come the fall, however, after the first NDP budget and policies are rolled out, consequences will begin to unfold from their tax-spend-regulate and anti-resource agenda. The outlook for the industry and the economy for 2018 would certainly deteriorate. Guaranteed that financial and human capital would begin to withdraw from the province and move to more welcoming environments.
Upon an NDP victory, we’d recommend sharply reducing exposure to British Columbia over the summer and fall and shifting to other more mining-friendly jurisdictions with a particular emphasis on Ontario (positive change coming there), Quebec, the east coast and of course Saskatchewan. B.C. and Alberta will suffer greatly. Free enterprise builds prosperity, socialism destroys it.
The NDP left a path of economic destruction in B.C. after their 2 periods in power in the 1970’s and 1990’s and they inflicted major damage on the mining sector each time. Similiar outcomes should be expected over the next 4 years if they are returned to power again by an electorate with amnesia. Encourage friends and relatives in B.C. to vote on Tuesday and return a stable government to power that presides over the fastest growing economy in the country.
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 6, 2017 @ 7:10 am
BC residents should take a field trip to Alberta and experience first hand the desolation. I’m surprised the Venture hasn’t picked up and moved headquarters. We are just a hollow shell of the province we once were.
Comment by Charles — May 6, 2017 @ 7:45 am
Example of ndp waste, after years of debate and millions spent on a now approved kinder Morgan pipeline, ndp vows to shut it down if elected, really!! That’s just one example of stupidity and waste…
Comment by Laddy — May 6, 2017 @ 7:54 am
Jon…Re: GGM/CSR, would they not require 2 plants in Gowganda,
1 for GGM concentrate (if thats the location they decide on), and
1 for the cobalt milling and recovery?
Comment by bob — May 6, 2017 @ 9:39 am
Laddy, you’re right but NDP is beyond stupidity if that’s possible. Which is why they turned this province into an economic disaster the last time they held power.
My take is that the polls we’re seeing – just about every one predicting an NDP win – are FAKE NEWS!
Manipulated polls, just like how the polls and the mainstream media tried to coerce U.S. voters into electing horribly flawed Hillary. Snowflakes controlling the polls and media in Canada, beware!
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 6, 2017 @ 1:44 pm
You would think the voters in BC would say no to NDP given the resource destruction they caused in Alberta. Anyway, my only focus will be what the VTEM reveals at E&L when it’s released
Comment by Dan1 — May 6, 2017 @ 2:14 pm
“horribly flawed Hilary”? Seriously Jon? What adjectives might you then ascribe to a misogynistic, pathological chronic lying social media bully? I appreciate the research you guys do on the Venture, etc. but your support of “the Donald” is a bit myopic. Hilary was no prize, but I don’t understand how anyone with integrity and a conscience can support Trump. And I am a right wing conservative!
Comment by TJ — May 6, 2017 @ 2:58 pm
Let’s see, TJ…u defend Hillary, indeed a horribly flawed candidate, mock Trump and the “deplorables” who u say have “no integrity and no conscience”, and at the same time you’re a “right wing conservative”? That balances about as much as an NDP budget!
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 6, 2017 @ 7:34 pm
No offence, but I clearly said Hilary was no prize, I don’t think that is defending her. I never said anything about deplorables…Not trying to be inflammatory or mocking anybody here, but please point out some examples of Trump’s integrity and conscience. My point is I think you can have a belief in small government, capitalism, free enterprise, etc. and still have a heart for those who are less fortunate than we are. Based on Terry’s Christmas and Easter messages, I think he would agree.
Comment by TJ — May 6, 2017 @ 8:16 pm
Trump and his supporters don’t have a “heart” for the less fortunate, TJ? How do u think he won the election by flipping long-held Democratic Rust Belt states? You don’t understand Trump or the Trump movement very well, across the entire spectrum of domestic and foreign policy approaches. Or is this specifically about immigration where u incorrectly think that tightening up the border and clamping down on sanctuary cities is somehow “heartless”?
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 6, 2017 @ 9:22 pm
Bob, the answer to that question is, not at this point, only at the stage of mass production of high purity Cobalt powders (and the recycling opportunity mentioned by CSR, currently in testing) which in this case for CSR would require only a low capex plant that could quite likely tap into government clean tech funds for as much as half the cost.
The initial stage of producing test products for battery manufacturers is easily achievable within CSR’s existing relationship with SGS Lakefield. Re-2OX creates the powders from a Cobalt concentrate.
Re-2OX is a potential major game-changer for the entire district in terms of Cobalt (and other metal) recovery – extremely efficient and adaptable process. Very much puts CSR at the forefront of Cobalt mining and recovery in a region featuring the highest grades in the entire world but with unique metallurgical issues that Re-2OX addresses.
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 7, 2017 @ 7:04 am
Jon, I didn’t see CSR’s name at the Metal Investors Conference this weekend. Would have been an excellent opportunity to showcase their property and the Re-20X process.
Comment by Dan1 — May 7, 2017 @ 7:33 am
“My take is that the polls we’re seeing – just about every one predicting an NDP win – are FAKE NEWS!
Manipulated polls, just like how the polls and the mainstream media tried to coerce U.S. voters into electing horribly flawed Hillary. Snowflakes controlling the polls and media in Canada, beware!”
I didn’t realize that my BMR subscription on investment ideas also included the Breitbart news. I also didn’t know that if I saw something in the news that I didn’t like, I’d be able to call it fake. Stick to what you are good at, BMR.
Comment by Johnz — May 7, 2017 @ 7:34 am
How is BBI looking technically Jon!? H&S-formation? Thanks.
Comment by maikenders — May 7, 2017 @ 7:43 am
CSR was just at the Metals and Mining Conference, Dan1, and U believe they’re slated for an event later this month in Vancouver.
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 7, 2017 @ 7:57 am
Maikenders, I would look for a near-term rebound in BBI to the 5O-cent area but it has quite a bit of work to do to get out of a current downtrend within a broader long-term uptrend; 300-day is in upper 30’s.
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 7, 2017 @ 8:05 am
Johnz, we are sticking to what we are good at. We focus on the Venture. Our mandate and our responsibility is to look at all factors that influence this market. Tuesday’s election is one of them.
What I’m saying is that the polls right now predicting an NDP majority are off big time, and there’s a reason for that – bias. Whether u want to believe that or not of course is up to you. We’ve made our call.
You can go with the polls or take our interpretation, and act accordingly. We were one of the few that picked a Trump win and we guided very effectively on the aftermath.
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 7, 2017 @ 8:13 am
Polls are unreliable indicators of who will win,especially recently, but they are not fake. There is a difference.
Comment by Johnz — May 7, 2017 @ 8:20 am
Yes, they are fake, Johnz, and here’s how: No different than what unfortunately happens sometimes in the mining/exploration business, and it comes down to sampling procedures.
You have pollsters that are skewing their sampling procedures in a way that encourages a certain outcome which in turn helps shape their preferred media narrative re: momentum purposes. That’s not fake?
It is naive to believe that this has not been happening. We saw many examples of this during last year’s U.S. election campaign, and it also happened during the last B.C. election.
Do not believe these B.C. polls. Riddled with incompetence and bias.
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 7, 2017 @ 8:26 am