Fears over the crisis in Japan have markets deeply in the red today…the CDNX was warning us last week there was trouble on the horizon, and indeed that is what has occurred…as of 7:50 am Pacific, Gold is off $31 to $1,398 after falling as low as $1,380…Silver has dropped $1.52 to $34.42 while just some modest buying is coming into the U.S. Dollar which is one-fifth of a point higher at 76.58…Japan’s benchmark Nikkei fell more than 14% at one point Tuesday before finishing down over 1,000 points or 10.55%…cash has become King for now and investors are liquidating assets across the board…with civil war in Libya and problems elsewhere in the Middle East, a monumental disaster in Japan and a U.S. Congress that can’t come to an agreement on a budget, President Obama’s Saturday radio address was devoted to Women’s History Month and a call to pass the Paycheck Fairness Act, a proposal meant to address the income gap between men and women…then, the president went golfing at Andrews Air Force Base…today’s version of Jimmy Carter occupying the White House is not helping matters…unrest in Bahrain appears to be worsening which also has the markets on edge…Bahrain’s King imposed a three-month state of emergency today and gave the country’s military chief wide authority to battle a pro-democracy uprising that has threatened the ruling monarchy and drawn in forces from around the Gulf…the CDNX has plummeted 124 points to 2069, so a declining 50-day moving average (SMA) has now set in which confirms this downtrend has not yet run its course….as we stated over the weekend, we are anticipating a drop of at least 23% in the CDNX from its recent high of 2465 which would take it down to 1900, the November low and just above the 200-day and 200-week moving averages…when the CDNX turns, it turns quickly…the good news is that the overall bull market remains intact based on both fundamentals and technicals, so this has to be viewed as a deep correction within an ongoing bull market…fortunes are often born during major corrections such as this…the current situation reminds us a little bit of the action in the markets in August of 2007 when the CDNX plunged 24% over just nine trading sessions…the devastation in Japan and the negative economic impact this will have on that country (and the rest of the world to some extent) over the short term, and the declining markets, will make the Fed more determined to maintain its accommodating monetary policy for an indefinite period and perhaps introduce QE3 later this year…ETF’s are coming to the CDNX soon…Global X Funds plans to roll out its Global X S&P/TSX Venture 30 Canada ETF Thursday in New York (it will start trading sometime during the second quarter)…the Global X ETF will track the new S&P/TSX Venture 30 Index which was announced Monday by Standard & Poor’s…the Index includes the 30 largest stocks on the Venture Exchange by market value that also meet minimum requirements for liquidity…meanwhile, BlackRock Canada has filed a preliminary prospectus to launch its iShares S&P/TSX Venture ETF in Canada soon, an EFT that will track the more diversified S&P/TSX Venture Select Index…while at BMR we focus almost exclusively on the CDNX and precious metals of course, it never hurts to take a quick look at the technical health of the Dow…John submitted a chart last night that shows how the Dow could easily be headed from its current level of 11780 to support at its 200-day SMA of 11,033…Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V) came out with more stellar results this morning from its Blackwater Gold Project in central British Columbia…this stock has performed remarkably well in recent days given the plunge in the markets…Richfield released results from the first four holes of its 2011 30,000 metre drill program and they included 2.70 g/t Au over 145 metres (5 grams over 40 metres) in hole #120 on the east side of Blackwater…RVC is off 26 cents at $6.52…Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) has touched its 300-day SMA at 28 cents this morning…it has fallen only slightly below that level over the past year-and-a-half during only two brief periods in 2010…SFF is currently off 3.5 pennies at 29 cents…we suggest investors take a look at these 300-day SMA’s for areas of strong support on certain stocks…one of our favorite plays to keep a close eye on during this downtrend is Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX)…a drop to its 100-day SMA of $2.50 would likely present an incredible opportunity as was the case in late January when it touched its 100-day around $1.80…GPR is currently off 26 cents at $3.80…
March 15, 2011
5 Comments
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As right as your prediction was, this could not have been predicted through charts. The market could be as hot as ever, and an 8.9 earthquake would change everything
Comment by Adam P E T E R S O N — March 15, 2011 @ 9:30 am
Thanks for the information about the 100, 200, 200 DMA John. I forgot how much downside some of these Juniors have. I sold my uranium yesterday at break even. Its down another 15% today. Some buying has come in on Uranium by afternoon. Good days to buy may be a ways off, but Uranium is down now. If I had shorted the Japanese market I feel bad. One mans misfortune is another mans fortune.
Comment by George Helm — March 15, 2011 @ 9:38 am
ISN’T THIS CORRECTION ENOUGH? DO WE NEED TO REALLY GO ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1900 JOHN? I THOUGHT TODAY WAS SOME SORT OF CAPITULATION OUT THERE ON MOST BOARDS WITH SOME REBOUND TONITE IN JAPAN.
Comment by STEVE — March 15, 2011 @ 6:50 pm
Hi Steve, if you look back over the last decade, the average CDNX major correction has been better than 20%. Yesterday’s intra-day low of 2050 is likely a temporary bottom, I think, but this market will likely be capped on the upside for now at 2200. I’m still sticking to my 1900 prediction though it could be April before we reach that point. Right now this is a traders’ market….there will be some good opportunities as demonstrated yesterday by GCU. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some strength in the CDNX the next couple of days but one has to be careful because this correction has simply not run its course yet IMHO.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 16, 2011 @ 5:18 am
THANKS FOR THE INFO. I GUESS IT’S BETTER TO BE CAREFUL IN THE SHORT TERM BUT TODAY VENTURE IS UP OVER 40 PTS LEADING THE WAY BACK UP. HOPING AT LEAST.
Comment by STEVE — March 16, 2011 @ 6:18 am