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October 19, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,260 and $1,273 so far today…as of 9:45 am Pacific, bullion is up $8 an ounce at $1,269…Silver is 3 cents higher at $17.62…Copper is flat at $2.11…Crude Oil has surged $1.49 a barrel to $51.78 on a larger than expected Crude draw, while the U.S. Dollar Index is unchanged at 97.89

Holdings in global exchange-traded funds backed by Gold rose to 2,053 metric tons yesterday, the highest since June 2013

Gold prices in India swung to a premium for the first time in 9 months today as jewellers and dealers in the world’s No. 2 consumer of the metal ramped up purchases ahead of major festivals…dealers were charging up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, the first time premiums have been seen since mid-January, according to Bachhraj Bamalwa, director at the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation…

Gold will rise to $1,347 an ounce during the next year, according to a poll of attendees after the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference in Singapore this week…that’s a great sign – they’re not overly bullish…attendees were most excited about Silver which they see climbing to about $21 an ounce in 2017…more than 700 delegates, representing 34 countries, attended the 2016 conference, the LBMA reported…

The Fed releases its Beige Book at 11:00 am Pacific with key officials also speaking today…meanwhile, the German government sold 30-year bonds (bunds) today for an average yield of 0.65%…that’s above the 0.45% fetched in late July…world government bond yields have been on the rise recently as the perception that price inflation is creeping back into the world economic picture…

BHP Billiton (BHP, NYSE) Upbeat On Commodities

BHP Billiton (BHP, NYSE), the world’s largest mining company, sees early signs that commodity markets are rebalancing, with Oil and Natural Gas best placed to deliver gains into 2018

“Fundamentals suggest both Oil and gas markets will improve over the next 12 to 18 months,” CEO Andrew Mackenzie said today in the company’s first-quarter production report. “Iron Ore and metallurgical coal prices have been stronger than expected, although we continue to expect supply to grow more quickly than demand in the near-term.”

BHP joins Rio Tinto Group (RIO, NYSE) in expressing increased optimism on the outlook for commodities amid continued strong demand in China, the top consumer…raw materials will probably see a broad-based recovery in 2017 after an expected strong performance in the final quarter of this year on improving demand, according to Barclays

China Reports Steady Growth

China’s economy grew by 6.7% in the 3rd quarter, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations…the figure was also the same as Q2…China also reported its retail sales increased by 10.7% in September from a year earlier, also matching estimates…industrial production was up 6.1% in September, year-on-year, which was a miss to the downside…overall, however, the numbers were deemed to be upbeat…

Oil Update

U.S. Crude hit a more than 1-year high today after government data showed that Crude stockpiles declined for 6th time in 7 weeks, as refinery activity fell and the country imported less product…

Meanwhile, China’s Crude output fell 9.8% to 3.89 million barrels per day (bpd), near its lowest in 6 years in the 2nd-biggest year-on-year decline on record…

“The fall in Chinese Crude Oil production is probably attributable to the low price level, which makes parts of production unprofitable. This makes it all the harder to understand why OPEC is talking prices up with its current debate about production cuts, and is thus helping precisely those Oil producers it would ideally like to force out of the market,” Commerzbank observed…

Oil Drilling

Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said today that “he’s happy to see more rigs coming back” and that Oil markets were at the end of a considerable downturn as fundamentals were improving and supply and demand were rebalancing…he called on non-OPEC producers to help stabilize the market, saying their role was as critical as that of OPEC members…

Market forces are clearly working after a testing period of sub-$30 Oil prices…Oil demand is expanding at a healthy rate despite slower global growth,” he said…

The energy minister added that by freezing production or slightly reducing it, OPEC wants to signal to the market that it would like to see lower inventories and more investment…

Saudi Debt Offering

The Saudis are also in the midst of their first foray into the international bond market as the books get set to close on what could be a monster $15-$20 billion deal, so the recent pick-up in Oil prices has been timely…the debt offering is expected to debut this week and is a key part of the kingdom’s economic reform plan as it would give Saudi Arabia a sovereign benchmark that would help it open its capital market for future offerings, such as corporate issues…Saudi officials met with investors in New York yesterday…according to the price talk, the Saudi 5-year note would tentatively come to market with a yield 160 basis points above the U.S. 5-year Treasury note…the 10-year would tentatively be set at 185 bps above the U.S. 10-year, and the 30-year would be 235 bps above the U.S. long bond…

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. A real 450% return on ETF’s – we’ll show you how…

2. Technical strength builds in Venture and TSX Gold Index…

3Cannabix Technologies’ (BLO, CSE) update…

4. Daniel’s Den – update on 4 “major league” optionality plays with resources…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

13 Comments

  1. Jon,just wondering what your thoughts were on the news DBV released a couple of days ago?

    Comment by pole — October 19, 2016 @ 9:47 am

  2. Beige book, high US dollar hampering exports, SHOCKING hey!

    Comment by Laddy — October 19, 2016 @ 10:15 am

  3. LIC – news, she’s moving

    Comment by dave — October 19, 2016 @ 10:47 am

  4. LIC looking great…cut thru the 16-cent resistance like a knife thru butter. The Cobalt news is out.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 19, 2016 @ 12:08 pm

  5. Wow- DVR-V.. has been ” sleeping” for weeks!! Talk about illiquid!! What’s it going to take to wake this little “gem” up ? ?

    Comment by GregJ. — October 19, 2016 @ 3:28 pm

  6. Forgot to mention. Daniel- great great work on your part!! Thank- you!!!!

    Comment by GregJ. — October 19, 2016 @ 3:34 pm

  7. RE:GGI
    I have been a shareholder of GGI for over 2 years, and like many shareholders have wondered why there are very few updates to supposed activities in Mexico
    and Northern B.C. Is it possible that the management team are trying to privatize the company or buy it out for a minimal price while withholding good,
    relevant information from the market which would add share value if revealed.

    Comment by Rick — October 19, 2016 @ 4:10 pm

  8. I cannot understand why Jon hasn’t had an interview with Steve Regoci. If he has done more than stare out the office window there should be something to impart to a guy that has sung his praises vigorously for so long.

    Comment by PaulH — October 19, 2016 @ 6:58 pm

  9. Timing is everything, PaulH. What I have praised vigorously, and rightly so, is GGI’s property portfolio which is exceptional. I expect that will become even more evident in the days and weeks ahead. How that all plays out, and everything it may trigger, will be exciting to watch.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 19, 2016 @ 7:58 pm

  10. Check out BayHorse “BHS” soon to be a silver producing mine. BEST SILVER PLAY on the Venture IMO!!!

    2016-10-19 12:25 ET – News Release

    Mr. Graeme O’Neill reports

    CRUSHING EQUIPMENT DELIVERED TO BAYHORSE SILVER MINE, OREGON, USA

    Bayhorse Silver Inc. has received its shipment of crushing and processing equipment at the Bayhorse silver mine in Oregon, United States. Equipment assembly is under way.

    Electrical power supply lines to the mine site by Idaho Power are anticipated to be completed by the end of October, at which time the Bayhorse silver mine site will be completely electrified. On completion of crusher assembly and commissioning, a 2,000-ton batch of mineralization already extracted from the mine workings will be tested for silver upgrading utilizing the crushing and shaker table procedures.

    During construction of an access ramp to the upper adit a significant zone of mineralization was exposed in the wall rock. This new exposure dips 30 degrees to the north, extending over a thickness of 20 feet for a horizontal distance of 73 feet. This is consistent with the mineralized zone at the Bayhorse mine being approximately 85 feet wide and averaging 20 feet in thickness, as reported by Herdrick in his 1981 report.

    The upper adit is being remediated to provide additional mechanized access to mineralized material in the upper level of the historic mine workings.

    Graeme O’Neill, chief executive officer of Bayhorse, commented, “Exploration manager Dr. Clay Conway, PGeol, was excited to see the external extent of the mineralization with abundant showings of oxidized tetrahedrite in the form of azurite and malachite that he sampled for assay as it confirms the extent of the mineralization reported in the historic documentation.”

    Operations at the Bayhorse mine can be conducted year-round. A portable structure 38 feet by 50 feet has been ordered to minimize weather issues affecting the continuous upgrading operations. The company has also reopened the lower 900-foot adit where historically mineralization was drawn from ore shoots from the intermediate-level workings. The opening of the three adits provides additional exits from the mine workings, allows for safer underground operations and provides cross-ventilation within the underground workings.

    An underground drill program is planned from the lower adit workings targeting into, and the area ahead of, the known mineralized zone. Prior to closing the mine in late 1984 due to low silver prices, Silver King was reported to have only mined 5,718 tons at an average grade of 16.7 ounces per ton silver using a six-ounce-per-ton silver cut-off.

    Bayhorse Silver is earning a 75-per-cent interest in the past-producing Bridging the Gap project, consisting of Asarco’s historic Crown Point, Silver King, Ranger, Wyoming, Curlew and Blackhawk silver/lead/zinc mines in Idaho’s Silver Valley. Bayhorse is also earning an 80-per-cent interest in the historic Bayhorse silver mine in Oregon, United States.

    Dr. S.A. Jackson, PGeo, a qualified person and technical adviser to the company, has prepared and supervised the preparation of or approved the technical content of this press release

    Comment by Jeff — October 20, 2016 @ 4:24 am

  11. Sir Isaac Newton re BLO… what goes up..??? and nope it aint different this time!!

    Comment by Jeremy — October 20, 2016 @ 6:11 am

  12. Jeremy, we were anticipating a good BLO buying opportunity today on a possible further pullback, and presto….retraced to the previous high…pretty normal trading, actually, for a volatile stock…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 20, 2016 @ 6:22 am

  13. Hey Jon .. I knew it was going to retrace.. this is this first time where I believed that it WASNT going to be different this time:) thus sold 80% on the way up… nice when you have warrants to fall back on:) you can teach an old dog new tricks:)

    Comment by Jeremy — October 20, 2016 @ 1:35 pm

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