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May 10, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,256 and $1,268 so far today…as of 9:50 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,260 after yesterday’s tumble…Silver is 3 cents higher at $17.02…Copper is off a penny at $2.13…Crude Oil has jumped $1 a barrel to $44.43 while the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied another one-tenth of a point to 94.25

Bullion has fallen in 5 out of the past 6 sessions, having failed to hold above resistance at $1,300, and not benefiting much from data last week showing that the U.S. economy added the fewest jobs in 7 months in April…however, bullion has strong support at its rising 50-day SMA around $1,250

Indians bought a third less Gold than last year during the annual Hindu and Jain holy festival of Akshaya Tritiya yesterday, industry officials estimate, as droughts have hit the earnings of millions of farmers while the metal’s price has jumped significantly in 2016

The U.S. would not necessarily lose out if other currencies emerged as alternatives to the dollar’s status as the world’s so-called reserve currency, a top central banker said today…William Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, did not comment on U.S. interest rates in a speech…rather he said Americans should not be concerned if, for the right reasons, other currencies started to eat into the dollar’s 60% share of foreign exchange reserve holdings.  “I don’t see this as a zero-sum game,” Dudley, one of the most influential Fed policymakers, said in prepared remarks to a conference in Zurich that was closed to reporters.  “If other countries’ currencies emerge to gain stature as reserve currencies, it is not obvious to me that the United States loses,” he said, as long as it “is being driven by their progress, rather than by the U.S. doing a poorer job.”

Oil Update

Crude continues to benefit from what the Saudis say is an increase in global demand, and from supply disruptions in Alberta’s Oilsands and elsewhere (Nigeria in particular) that have knocked out 2.5 million barrels of daily production and temporarily eclipsed concern over high global inventories and a looming surplus of refined products…today, news services reported that the chief executive of Saudi Arabi’s state-owned Oil giant Saudi Aramco said the company would likely increase its output.  “We’re seeing a global increase in demand,” CEO Amin Nasser stated.  “We are meeting that call on us.”

Fort McMurray Update

Praise God for Fire Chief Darby Allen and the hundreds of other heroes who have worked tirelessly to save lives (not a single person was killed or injured from the inferno that engulfed Fort McMurray) and 90% of the homes, businesses and critical infrastructure in that community…while there are areas of incredible damage and destruction, and many lives have been turned upside down, the great rebuilding effort that will take place in Fort McMurray – through grit, determination and faith – is going to be an inspiration to the rest of Canada…

Below is an awesome portrait of Fort McMurray Fire Chief Darby Allen by artist Russell Thomas who says the original painting is “a symbol of courage and heart” and will be gifted to the Fort McMurray fire department…he plans to make prints available for sale with all proceeds going toward the United For Fort McMurray campaign focused on rebuilding the community…

Thomas told the CBC he said he’s “really optimistic” about the future of his city.  “The people have responded in a way that is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before,” he said.  “We’re going to rebuild, and we’re going to do it quickly, and we’re going to do it mindfully, and we’re going to do it with enthusiasm.”

Chief Allen Painting

Russell Thomas’ original painting of Fire Chief Darby Allen will be gifted to the Fort McMurray fire department. Prints will be made available for sale, with all proceeds going to the United Way campaign for Fort McMurray (Russell Thomas/Facebook).

Economic Fallout From Fort McMurray

The Bank of Canada had forecast that Canada’s GDP would expand by 1% in the 2nd quarter, but now economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal suggest that growth will be flat or even potentially negative…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Is $40 the new floor for Crude?

2. Two new additions to the BMR Top Opportunities List

3. Sandra Escobar Silver discovery in Durango State continues to show strong potential…

Plus more…click here to take advantage of our Spring Sizzler Subscription Special in effect for a limited time only, or login with your username and password to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings… 

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19 Comments

  1. MTS – Dave Webb! how much involvement does he have ? mongolia gold still rankles a lot of people and tyhee didn’t help

    Comment by david — May 10, 2016 @ 3:00 pm

  2. Not to belittle anyone, David, but he’s a non-factor in this equation, doesn’t head up the Kirkham Property program, not part of management and sits as an independent director. He probably makes a positive contribution but I don’t even know why u would bring him up as your first comment on this company – the relevance pales to the big picture here.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 10, 2016 @ 4:48 pm

  3. I picked up some MTS today as well as increasing my position in ESK. I expected a little profit taking in ESK at the end of the day, it had it’s biggest volume day of the year which says something and I will pick up more if it drops back to the .14 – .15 range. I like to look for accumulation patterns and that definitely seems to be happening for ESK.

    Normally I wouldn’t be this aggressive this time of the year but I really think the venture is turning the corner. Normally when people say this year is different (ie. ignore the sell in May and go away) they are wrong so I am going against conventional wisdom.

    Comment by Danny — May 10, 2016 @ 6:02 pm

  4. the only other negative was their cash position, which could change quite quickly based on market closeolgy. chet was a nice advisor addition, and makes sense based on the relationship with dupre. glad that webb is of no relevance and hope he disappears. otherwise all looked good

    Comment by david — May 10, 2016 @ 6:17 pm

  5. The hard work and perseverance of Mac Balkam at ESK over the last number of years is going to pay off big-time, Danny, as that property package has so much going for it. We’ve seen multiple deposits in this district, so there has to be another Eskay Creek IMHO. With MTS, absolute no-brainer – $2.5 million market cap and they’re sitting with 100 sq. km of excellent geology with Kirkham (including the King gold-bearing massive sulfide target) nestled in beside CXO’s KSP and KingPin. The market hasn’t woken up to that yet.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 10, 2016 @ 6:18 pm

  6. Hi John and Jon,

    With regards to Pure Energy NR would you be able to quantify somewhat how much this news is Pure Energy specific as many of the lithium stocks with projects in Clayton Valley took hits today. In other words do you think these results are indicative of the entire Clayton area? Could Clayton Valley turn out to be a dud? If so perhaps BMR members should shift focus to other LI projects you have brought to our attention in Canada and Australia.
    We should not panic here but we really need to have a better grasp of the big picture view on Clayton Valley. I know it is a lot of work but could you provide us with more guidance especially with regards to the other LI companies in the area?

    Cheers,
    John

    Comment by John — May 10, 2016 @ 6:34 pm

  7. John, I think Lithium X CEO Brian Paes-Braga hit the nail on the head last week when he said in our interview that he expected considerable volatility with these Lithium plays, but the overall trend re: Clayton Valley and the entire Lithium market remains very positive looking further out. The reason that many of the Clayton Valley stocks took a hit today was because of PE – the market was disappointed that those 3 holes well to the south of previous drilling were misses. The ongoing drilling in the north should return much more favorable results as it covers a a known higher grade resource. These 3 holes certainly don’t turn the Clayton Valley area into a dud – there’s much there, including North America’s only operating Lithium mine, and Lithium X (their flagship is actually in Argentina) will start drilling soon as well. But the market got negatively surprised today and reacted accordingly. Doesn’t change the big picture, though this does cool off Clayton Valley a little until better drilling results come in. Lost in today’s PE uproar was the news from CYP which reported more really good sampling results, check that out. PE is holding a conference call tomorrow. Stock hit strong support today which we’ll show in a chart in the morning. Nevada Sunrise took a big hit but they’re also diversified and their Gold property (Kinsley Mountain) is currently being drilled.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 10, 2016 @ 6:57 pm

  8. Jon, the one thing that might slow down MTS a little is that they have 1.4 million options at .10 and 450,000 warrants at .085, not a huge amount, could get eaten up quickly if it starts to move. Other than that, a great share structure.

    Comment by Danny — May 10, 2016 @ 7:40 pm

  9. Thanks Jon.

    Comment by John — May 10, 2016 @ 7:43 pm

  10. I’m not sure that’s enough to slow it down, Danny. If it brings a little more supply into the equation, that’s great. It’ll be eagerly gobbled up. This shouldn’t have a $2.5 million market cap, plain and simple, with how things are going to unfold in the area. This is when common sense, forward thinking and vision make you money in the markets, just like when CXO was sitting in the teens and 20’s, as opposed to looking thru a rear-view mirror.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 10, 2016 @ 7:47 pm

  11. Re: Metallis Resources, Jon you mention Dave DuPre, he looks like the real deal as far as his experience in the Golden Triangle, from the website:
    Since 1988, he has concentrated his efforts in the “Golden Triangle” area of Northwestern British Columbia. While President of Firesteel Resources, he acquired the ROK Property (adjacent to the Red-Chris Mine) and the Copper Creek property in the very active Sheslay Camp. He was intimately involved in the discovery of the Eskay Creek mine as project manager while at Keewatin Engineering – a major Mining Consultancy that he co-founded.

    Comment by GREGH — May 10, 2016 @ 8:55 pm

  12. DuPre is very respected in the industry, Gregh, and I’ve met him myself. He knows this part of the world like the back of his hand as he was involved in the early days with Eskay Creek. So u have an overlooked situation here with a paltry $2.5 million market cap and great geology on a 100 sq. km parcel contiguous to both KSP and KingPin. Look at the map. Imagine what this is going to lead to. CXO stakes the ground below MTS. Hello??

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 11, 2016 @ 3:13 am

  13. JP Morgan calls a new bull market in Gold (3 months after John)…

    “We’re recommending our clients to position for a new and very long bull market for gold,” JPMorgan Private Bank’s Solita Marcelli said on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 11, 2016 @ 3:29 am

  14. Goldman raised their gold forecast as well

    Comment by Sameer — May 11, 2016 @ 3:39 am

  15. Yes, but Goldman remains unrepentant, Sameer…they’re still “bearish” overall on Gold and predict lower prices by year-end…again they’ll be proven wrong…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 11, 2016 @ 3:42 am

  16. Jon heard anything on DBV lately? Any rumors or anything on how this court case in two weeks will go?

    Comment by Sameer — May 11, 2016 @ 4:45 am

  17. No I haven’t, Sameer. It’s unfortunate that this is still at the court stage. Both parties are to blame for that.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 11, 2016 @ 4:53 am

  18. Is Gbb halted no volume today?

    Comment by Matt — May 11, 2016 @ 11:30 am

  19. Matt…GBB is not halted….only 11300 traded.

    Comment by John - BMR — May 11, 2016 @ 12:00 pm

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