Is a “reversal” underway on the Venture after its 2nd worst July in 14 years?
Only July 2008, with a tumble of just under 16%, was worse than the just completed July (11.5% decline) going back to 2002 in this market.
Interestingly, following both previous July swoons in 2008 and 2002, the Venture commenced a new bull market within 5 months. Perhaps history will repeat itself.
The Venture’s technical situation at the moment is as follows based on John’s fresh 4-month daily chart:
1. Extreme oversold RSI(14) conditions are abating;
2. Fib. support at 580 was tested 3 times last week and held;
3. Sell pressure is declining rapidly;
4. The short-term bearish trend (ADX indicator) is clearly weakening.
Two technical events are required in order to confirm at least a short-term turnaround – breakouts, and preferably on increased volume, above the EMA(8), currently 596, and the EMA(20), currently 617. Both EMA’s have been providing stiff resistance the last 3 months. The EMA(8) has flattened out and could be ready to reverse to the upside.
More in Sunday’s Week In Review And A Look Ahead.
Venture 4-Month Daily Chart
“Okay Jon I will ask the question. lol. When do you expect DBV will get back to drilling? Thank you.” Comment by Andrew — July 29, 2015 @ 8:03 pm
“Ask me that question again in about 3 days, Andrew.” Comment by Jon – BMR — July 29, 2015 @ 9:29 pm
Andrew- time to ask Jon again.
Comment by d4 — August 2, 2015 @ 4:53 am
d4, See the comment (#51) from Jon on the 31 July post of BMR Morning Market Musings for a clue.
I figured I would wait until BMR issues their weekend report, which I believe will now have to be some time today.
Comment by Andrew — August 2, 2015 @ 8:23 am
We’re working on a couple of things, Andrew. It’s a long weekend, so I still consider Monday to be part of the weekend in this case…! However, something later today is possible. Just returned last night from Golden Ears provincial park. Above 30 out here on the south coast of beautiful B.C.
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 2, 2015 @ 8:36 am
No worries. I forget about those long weekends up north. For me every day is a weekend in sunny Mexico. How about if I just let you advise us on the drilling once you know? Cheers.
Comment by Andrew — August 2, 2015 @ 11:28 am
Is the Canadian market closed Monday?
Comment by dave — August 2, 2015 @ 2:59 pm
Yes, Canadian markets are closed tomorrow for the Civic holiday across the country. We’re also now officially into a federal election campaign, as of today. The spending of Harper’s war chest should help give the economy a boost.
Comment by Jon - BMR — August 2, 2015 @ 3:11 pm
Thanks Jon
Comment by dave — August 2, 2015 @ 5:21 pm