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Gold is firmer again today as it threatens to confirm a breakout through key resistance at $1,220…as of 8:15 am Pacific, bullion is up $29 an ounce at $1,233…Silver is 79 cents higher at $17.16…Copper is up 3 pennies at $2.97…Crude Oil has recovered 56 cents to $63.61 while the U.S. Dollar Index has pulled back three-quarters of a point to 88.35…the fact that the bears could only drive Gold down $13 an ounce last Friday in the face of a huge bumper sticker reading “Blowout Jobs Report”, with no downside follow-through yesterday, suggests that this move in Gold should be taken very seriously…

Gold is getting some help from jitters in global equity markets, and comments by 2 Federal Reserve policymakers…Dennis Lockhart, head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, said late yesterday that he was in no rush to drop the Fed’s pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time”, while San Francisco Fed chief John Williams said the phrase was still appropriate following a much better than expected U.S. November jobs report…

China’s largest Gold producer, Zijin Mining, is taking a 9.9% strategic stake in Canada’s Pretium Resources (PVG, TSX), developer of the ultra high-grade Brucejack Gold Project in northwest British Columbia (see additional details as well as updated Pretium chart below)…

Nickel prices are down slightly today, about 6 cents to $7.43 a pound, but are still near a 9-week high hit last week after an Indonesian court upheld a ban on Nickel-ore exports, threatening to curb global supplies…the ruling has cemented a turnaround in the Nickel market, which like most commodities had fallen sharply over the past 6 months…with shipments from the world’s biggest Nickel producer curtailed, Nickel supplies could remain tight for years, according to some analysts…a burgeoning recovery in the U.S. also is expected to feed demand and spark higher prices…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s stocks, currency and corporate bonds suffered their largest tumbles in years overnight after Beijing took fresh steps to rein in growing risks in the country’s debt-laden financial system…

The bond market was the first to fall, which sent yields higher, after a regulator banned investors from using low-grade corporate debt as collateral to borrow cash…the turmoil then spread to the yuan, which recorded its biggest 2-day tumble ever, while the benchmark Shanghai index fell as much as 6% in the last hour of trading after rallying to a 3.5-year high of 3091 earlier in the session…the Shanghai finished down 160 points or 5.3%, its biggest fall since 2009…keep in mind, however, the Shanghai had jumped 20% over the last month to become the world’s top performing index in 2014, and significant technical resistance was evident at the 3000 level as John’s charts have shown…so some profit-taking was also happening…

Japan’s Nikkei closed down 122 points overnight or less than 1%…

Europe

European markets are down sharply (more than 2%) in late trading overseas…Greek stocks crashed 11% with continued political jitters in the country contributing to the intensity of the sell-off…

North America

The Dow has lost 191 points as of 8:15 am Pacific on global economic concerns…

Americans plan to spend more on gifts this Christmas than in any holiday season in the past five years as economic optimism hits a post-recession high, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey…meanwhile, U.S. small business optimism surged in November to its highest level in nearly 8 years, the latest indication the economy is positioned for faster growth in 2015…the National Federation of Independent Business said today that its Small Business Optimism Index increased 2 points to 98.1 last month, the highest reading since February 2007…

In Toronto, the TSX is down 39 points while the Venture is off 2 points at 678 as of 8:15 am Pacific…it fell as low as 675 in early trading, a few points below the 2008 Crash bottom…

CRB Index Updated Chart – What It Tells Us About The Venture

The collapse in the CRB Index since the summer has been quite dramatic with the Index falling 21% which helps explain the Venture’s 34% decline since the end of August…

Extreme oversold conditions are now emerging, however, which means the CRB is likely quickly approaching a turnaround…this should give relief to the Venture…timing-wise, this fits well with the traditional strength in the Venture during the last half of December and into the first couple of months of the New Year…

The CRB became overbought in early March of this year (the +DI indicator peaked at that time) and hit its yearly high in June…in retrospect, those were riskier periods to go long on the Venture…the best time to go long on the Venture is when the CRB is heavily oversold as it now with the +DI indicator at the lowest level it has been at anytime over the past 2-and-a-half years…

TSX Updated Chart

Yesterday’s fresh multi-year low in Crude Oil sent the TSX tumbling as much as nearly 500 points intra-day before it settled 330 points lower at 14144…the energy sector fell 5.7% for its worst setback in more than 3 years…the TSX has fallen 1000 points in the last 11 sessions through yesterday, eroding its year-to-date gain to just 3.8% as investors ponder where Oil is ultimately headed and what the ramifications might be if prices remain around current levels in 2015…

“It is likely the case that the direct impact of a drop in Oil prices on the Canadian economy is negative as lower activity in the Oil and gas sector offsets, at the national level, the benefit to consumers from lower gasoline prices,” Royal Bank economists wrote in a note (the Bank of Canada is on the record stating that the Oil price slide will cut Canada’s economic growth by one-third of a percentage point in 2015)…the Canadian dollar, meanwhile, fell to another 5-year low just above 87 cents U.S., another signal that investors are growing increasingly concerned about all things Canada…

The TSX flashed an “early warning” sign at the end of September when it broke below an upsloping channel in place since the summer of 2013 as well as chart support at 15000…the bottom of that upsloping channel and the 15000 area then became resistance, hence the latest sell-off after the TSX spent 5 trading sessions slightly higher than 15000 but couldn’t gain traction above that level…

Important support for the TSX rests at 14200 and 13500…it would be encouraging if the TSX could claw its way back above 14200 and begin to build a base from there…the October low was 13647…

All That Glitters Might Be Gold Stocks

Gold stocks are running counter to the TSX so far this week, with the TSX Gold Index up another 5 points in early trading today to 154…a weak Canadian dollar and low Oil prices are exceedingly bullish factors for Canadian Gold producers, which is why a company like Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) and others in this sector represent such a tremendous opportunity in our view going into 2015…the fundamentals are in their favor, especially if Gold continues to remain firm above $1,200 an ounce…

New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX) Update

The fourth quarter is scheduled to be New Gold Inc.’s (NGD, TSX) strongest of the year, which should bring NGD’s consolidated full-year Gold production into the 380,000 to 420,000 ounce guidance range as reported by the company October 30 (keep in mind, NGD’s Rainy River Project in Ontario is expected to be in full production by 2017 at 325,000 ounces per year, below average industry costs)…

Based on the cost profile of the company’s 4 operations through the first 9 months of 2014, and New Gold’s fourth quarter plans, the company expects all-in sustaining costs for the full-year to come in between $815 and $835 per ounce – below industry average…NGD generated $58 million in net cash from operations in Q3 and was sitting on over $400 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of September…

Technically, NGD has found support at its 50-day moving average after collapsing below that SMA in September…resistance recently has been strong around the Fib. $5.14 level, but NGD is now threatening to overcome that…the stock is up 26 cents at $5.32 as of 8:15 am Pacific…

Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG, TSX) Update

As mentioned earlier, Pretium Resources (PVG, TSX) has landed an $81 million financing through one of China’s largest mining companies, Zijin Mining Group…the proceeds will help pay for capital expenditures including camp infrastructure at Pretium’s Brucejack Project…Zijin will purchase 12.83 million shares of Pretium at $6.30 through a private placement, giving the company a 9.9% interest in PVG and a seat on Pretium’s board…PVG boss Bob Quartermain expects strong Asian demand for Gold to underpin and drive Gold prices…

Technically, Pretium could rapidly accelerate if it can break above Fib. resistance and its declining 500-day SMA at $7.25…that’s where key resistance rests…PVG is up 52 cents at $7.17 as of 8:15 am Pacific…

Calibre Mining Corp. (CXB, TSX-V) Update

One of the highest quality Gold explorers on the Venture is Calibre Mining Corp. (CXB, TSX-V) which bargain-hunters should keep an eye on in the days ahead in the event of any addition pre-Christmas weakness…

A healthy technical consolidation occurred in Calibre during October and early November after quite a dramatic run that began near the end of May…support has held, as expected, between the 9 and 12-cent Fib. levels…

Results from a 5,000-meter Phase 1 drill program at the Eastern Borosi Gold-Silver Project, financed by IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG, TSX) have so far been very encouraging, and more assay results are pending…

Meanwhile, at the end of October, CXB announced commencement of a Phase 1 diamond drilling program (1,500 meters in up to 13 holes) on the Minnesota Gold Project within the B2Gold Corp. (BTO, TSX) joint venture on the Borosi concessions, northeast Nicaragua…Calibre controls a 49% interest in the JV while B2Gold has a 51% interest and is project operator…BTO has the right to earn an additional 19% per cent in Borosi by spending $6 million in additional project expenditures over 3 years…

CXB is off half a penny at 12.5 cents as of 8:15 am Pacific…a very strong support band exists between 9 and 12 cents as shown on this 2.5-year weekly chart…

Note:  John, Terry and Jon do not hold share positions in NGD, PVG or CXB.  Jon holds a share position in RIC.