Gold fell as low as $1,328 overnight but has recovered strongly…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $4 an ounce at $1,343…Silver slipped slightly below $20.60 overnight but has erased all of those losses and is now up 4 pennies at $20.92 (John has updated Silver charts at the bottom of today’s Morning Musings)…Copper is weak again today, off 4 pennies at $3.05…Crude Oil has lost $1.48 a barrel to $101.10…non-commercial speculative positions in the Oil market now stand at the highest level on record, which certainly increases the odds of a near-term pullback…the U.S. Dollar Index is up more than one-tenth of a point at 79.82…
Gold prices in China were trading at a discount of $5-6 an ounce to spot prices today, a sign of sluggish demand which could be just temporary…prices were at a premium of over $20 at the beginning of the year…
SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest Gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 1.5 tonnes to 805.2 tonnes on Friday…a lot of Gold supply has come off the market with a drying up of ETF selling, and that’s providing price support…
According to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bets in Gold futures and options for a fourth consecutive week as geopolitical tensions boosted speculative interest to the highest in more than a year…
The China Gold Association says demand in the Asian nation is on pace for a strong 2014 but may decline 17% this quarter from a year earlier after an early 2013 surge in purchases of bars and jewelry…demand this quarter may drop to 250 metric tons from 300 tons, according to Zhang Yongtao, vice chairman of the Beijing-based group (source: Bloomberg)…last month, the China Gold Association reported that total 2013 demand surged 41% to 1,176 tons from the year before…buyers who snapped up bullion in 2013, during the biggest price slump in more than three decades, may be somewhat deterred by this year’s rebound in prices which are off to the best start since 2008…the drop in sales may be brief as prices stabilize and buyers return for holiday purchases, according to Yongtao…
The World Gold Council’s managing director for the Far East, Albert Cheng, stated last month that given wealth accumulation among China’s growing middle class, “China’s Gold consumption this year will probably be sustained above 1,000 tons as long as the economy here will grow at 7%”.
While Gold is off to its best start in six years after topping $1,350 an ounce, Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie says chances are increasing that prices will slump to $1,000 for the first time since 2009…such a dramatic fall in Gold is simply not in the cards in our view, based on a variety of factors including how the Venture is trading…the CDNX is often a very reliable leading indicator of future bullion prices like it was in 2011 when it topped out six months ahead of Gold…the Venture has in fact broken out technically, suggesting that higher, not lower, Gold prices are in store later in the year…
Another factor favoring Gold at the moment is the weak greenback…if the Dollar Index can’t hold critical support at 79 in the coming months, then bullion could really take off…a test of that support appears to be in the cards in the near future based on this updated 2.5-year weekly chart from John…
U.S. Dollar Index Updated Chart
Copper Update Including Chart
Copper prices recorded their biggest drop in more than two years Friday, after a Chinese company’s bond default highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world’s biggest consumer of the industrial metal…more weakness in Copper was triggered this morning after an industry report showing China’s manufacturing sector activity fell to a seven-month low, potentially damping demand for the metal used in everything from household plumbing to smartphones…
Adding to the worries are concerns that many Chinese companies that have been struggling to raise cash have instead turned to a risky type of funding which involves importing Copper and using it as collateral for bank loans…if the price of Copper falls, then borrowers could be forced to dump the metal to help cover losses, adding more selling pressure to the market…
Copper 13-Year Monthly Chart
Copper has a strong base at $3 a pound, and RSI(14) is very close to a support area that has held since the beginning of 2010…so this 5% drop in prices since Friday should not spook investors…some “loose apples” are being shaken off the tree, quite often a healthy event…it’s possible that this could be one last test of support before Copper begins a move to the upside that can be sustained…sudden, sharp drops like the one we’ve just seen have been followed previously by strong advances…
Today’s Markets
Asia
China’s Shanghai Composite took a pounding overnight, falling nearly 59 points or nearly 3% to close at 1999…investors in our view have over-reacted to media headlines over the weekend of a collapse in Chinese exports in February…the weaker than expected number had a lot to do with timing of the Lunar New Year holiday and the effect of rampant over-invoicing by exporters in the first months of 2013…to adjust for the distortion, Beijing usually compares figures from the two months combined (the Lunar New Year holiday was in February this year as opposed to January in 2013) and on that basis China’s exports decreased by only 1.6% in the first two months compared with the same period a year earlier…evidence of a minor slowdown, perhaps, but the February headline number being thrown around is misleading…Chinese imports in the first two months, meanwhile, rose by 10% from a year earlier…
Japan’s Nikkei fell 154 points or 1% overnight to close at 15120…
Europe
European markets were down modestly today…
North America
The Dow is down 106 points as of 8:30 am Pacific…the TSX is 17 points lower while the Venture has slipped 2 points to 1041…
Venture Volume Reversal In Advancing Issues – More Evidence Of Major Market Shift
More evidence that the Venture is now in the early stages of a new bull market, albeit investors are being selective at this point…within a few months, we expect the “masses” to really start piling in which is why it’s so important in our view to be accumulating high quality situations now…volume is a key indicator and John’s 10-year monthly chart below shows a critical reversal to the upside in the monthly SMA(20) as it pertains to volume in advancing issues…this chart tells us the Venture will be climbing significantly higher in 2014…
CDNX 3-Year Updated Weekly Chart
Below is John’s updated 3-year weekly Venture chart…it would be reasonable to expect the RSI(14) to push into overbought territory before a period of consolidation sets in…the Index is underpinned by exceptionally strong support from the 970’s and up, so even any sudden near-term pullback would be modest…the turning point for this market came last October when it broke above a long-term downtrend line…next major chart resistance is 1150…
Fission Uranium Corp. (FCU, TSX-V)
Fission Uranium (FCU, TSX-V) has drilled yet another spectacular hole at Patterson Lake South…with 30.08 m of total composite off-scale (greater than 9999 cps) mineralization in 136 m total composite mineralization at shallow depth, PLS14-164 has returned the second strongest off-scale results recorded at PLS to date, placing it amongst the best holes drilled in the Athabasca Basin…PLS14-164 has also widened the R780E zone…
FCU has hit a new high of $1.70 this morning…below is a 9-month weekly chart showing last week’s confirmed breakout and the next Fib. measured resistance level…
Forum Uranium Corp. (FDC, TSX-V)
Forum Uranium (FDC, TSX-V) is another play in the Athabasca Basin to watch with interest in terms of upcoming results…FDC commenced drilling in late February along northern sections of its 100%-owned Clearwater Property, on trend and immediately adjacent to the southwest of Fission’s PLS discovery…Forum is also in the process of completing a financing of approximately $3 million through a combination of flow-through and hard dollars…
FDC has climbed on speculation from the mid-30’s since the beginning of February…we’d prefer to wait for results at this point…technically, FDC is looking strong with the rising 20-day SMA, currently at 44 cents, providing solid support since early December…the stock appears to be completing a cup-with-handle pattern which puts near-term resistance at about 60 cents…FDC is up a penny at 52 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…
Silver Short-Term Chart
This 4-month daily chart shows Silver with powerful support between Fib. retracement levels $20.28 and $20.64, and in between that is the rising 50-day SMA at $20.36…we see no reason why Silver won’t hold those levels…
Silver Long-Term Chart
The long-term Silver chart confirms that the metal is in an area of exceptional support…sell pressure has been dominant since early last year but is weak…if and when Silver breaks above the main downtrend line, watch out…
V.MSA .06 — Anyone comments on this one ? Amazing share structure ,16 million half owned by insiders and Inst. Graph seems ready to roll back up . Good team and properties are in the US .
Comment by Fred — March 10, 2014 @ 7:56 am
hmmmm thanks for h/u
looks like rolled up from .015
dav is 35k low vol trader
will DD
Comment by ChartTrader — March 10, 2014 @ 9:11 am
Jon it may be a good time to accumulate some of these sheslay plays but I feel you are misleading readers in your tone!! Speaking as if something could immediately happen, when there isn’t even one if them that has announced a drill program yet. So you IMO are looking at at least two to three months before anything starts to heat up. Drill results move these juniors or anticipation once drilling has started, nothing else. That has been proven time and time again!!
Comment by John s. — March 10, 2014 @ 9:41 am
Further to my last post I would say Ggi performance as of late backs up my view!! It’s sinking like a rock since you only a few weeks ago were telling people it was a great buy at 23 cents. At 17.5, down 23%. And I think it was you that said if you buy and it drops 10 percent sell and move on!!
Comment by John s. — March 10, 2014 @ 9:52 am
John S.- DBV will probably be drilling in a week. The company is just waiting for a few days over 0 degrees before heading up there. I heard that they left most of the stuff at the camp when they stopped drilling due to wintery conditions setting in the Valley.. Stay tuned.
Comment by d4 — March 10, 2014 @ 10:29 am
John S. If you don’t believe in the Sheslay play then what are you doing here . This is the Bull Market thread . You should go to the Bear Market thread .. I got a basket of the Sheslay companies . They are doing well even though I got in sometime after BMR began talking about them . It is not good to be buying the one/s that is getting ahead of the story . Just accumulate the ones that are the cheapest at the time you have funds to put into the play .
Comment by Fred — March 10, 2014 @ 11:43 am
Thanks d4. That’s one company out of how many though?
Comment by John s. — March 10, 2014 @ 11:56 am
D4 I quickly looked at Dbv nrs and don’t see any announcement of drilling commencing in a week
Comment by John s. — March 10, 2014 @ 11:57 am
Fred. The bull market isn’t a for sure thing is it? Also even if it is it doesn’t mean everything is going to go up dies it? I didn’t say I didn’t believe in sheslay, I just said I feel Jon is getting ahead if the story when time is in our side. Drilling moved juniors and most are months away from drilling no?
Comment by John s. — March 10, 2014 @ 12:47 pm
John S- its because it hasn’t been announced yet.
Comment by d4 — March 10, 2014 @ 12:51 pm
John S. – I’d just be patient and let this story unfold. We know these companies are going to spend a bunch of money drilling here and with gold likely in a new bull market I think BMR is right in that it’s a potentially explosive situation. Stocks like this tend to make big moves then just drift so you have to be patient and be in it to win it. I’ve got a stake in GGI too btw.
Comment by Justin — March 10, 2014 @ 1:01 pm
John S, take some time and talk to the companies you want to invest in, for example d4 stated Doubleview will be drilling soon, most that have spoken to mgmt have known that he wants to drill in early march, Farshad has kept his word on everything that he has stated he was going to do so yes I also believe news is imminent that drilling will be occurring. In my opinion DBV will the one leading the group as far as timing and drilling and ultimately drill results.
Comment by Paul — March 10, 2014 @ 1:02 pm
Nice,out of the 12 postings only one not happy about the Sheslay,that is a sure sign that it is going way higher.
Comment by John Heisenberg — March 10, 2014 @ 1:50 pm
Heisenberg: I don’t think any of us posters have any relevance. The most important factor is the gold bull resurgence, which will fuel spending on exploration projects like the Sheslay. Then of course we need some type of results but we already have half a dozen companies active on this thing that’s a huge advantage for holding any one of these stocks. You get free money essentially from all the other companies drilling since they will start trading in a similar fashion.
Comment by Justin — March 10, 2014 @ 3:06 pm
Like many of you I am waiting on the sidelines waiting for the right entry point into DBV, GGI, ABR, AIX (and maybe PGX if/when it pulls back a little)…. Can anyone tell me best way to find out which ones have big investors behind them. I read on this site that Sprott owns some GGI, but having a hard time seeing if any of the others have backers like that?? Thx!
Comment by laurie — March 10, 2014 @ 4:13 pm
2014 stock picks Andrews picks up 40.71 stocking stuffers 5 up 17.45 bmr 20 up 14.75 graphite 2 up 9.8 percent
Comment by gil — March 10, 2014 @ 4:48 pm
Laurie I don’t know about the rest but I wouldn’t be waiting on DbV too long, once they announce drilling which could be any day now the stock will move, I was buying like crazy when it was .04-.05, I highly doubt we will every see that share price again.
Comment by Paul — March 10, 2014 @ 4:59 pm
Laurie- don’t only look at institutional backing as they are just investing other people’s money and there isn’t much accountability. Look at which ones have CEO/insider backing …..that they put their money into it and not just through options.
I can’t speak for the others but in DBV’s case, Farshad (CEO and is the company’s geologist) owns over 15 million shares! He has participated in the last few financings (probably all of them but I haven’t looked that far). Unlike many juniors out there, he is very conscious of minimizing dilution as much as possible. The last drilling phases he only raised enough to drill a few holes in hopes of finishing off the drilling with another financing at higher prices.
For the drilling about to start within a week he chose not to do a financing. Instead he is using the money raised from the exercising of the warrants. This just gave him over $1 million. The current drill plan is to drill 21 holes. He will drill a few holes where he thinks it will have the most impact on the share price then do a financing a much higher prices (to minimize dilution!). Everything he has said over the last year he has held his word on. He is a very honest man, a tireless worker, an extremely knowledgable geo and most importanlty knows his property well so he knows exactly what he needs to do. I suspect this will be the last phase of drilling the company will do as it will be taken over. I support Farshad and after having invested in the juniors for so long I am greatful to have found a CEO like this……I just wish there were more of them!
Insitituional backing is not the thing I look for. Invest in companies where the management has a lot of skin in the game and a lot to lose if unsuccessful……the institutions will come running later if you have chosen right!
Jon/John- Where’s that DBV part 2?
Comment by d4 — March 10, 2014 @ 5:58 pm
d4, re: Jon/John- Where’s that DBV part 2? d4, I’m sure you can appreciate this, not everyone might but hopefully most, but we are dealing with an extraordinary situation and the extent of data and information to analyze, and the effort to ensure that we report this accurately and subject it to proper geological scrutiny, is immense, so we are proceeding as quickly as we can within that context to help our readers better understand the significance of what’s unfolding at the Hat, and also at the Grizzly, Sheslay, and other properties in the district. So we appreciate your patience. Part 2 of DBV is coming shortly. We’re learning something new regarding the Sheslay Valley every day – this is indeed shaping up to be world class and I think Prosper’s news this morning was another hint of that. With regard to your DBV comments, I certainly agree with your general analysis – for specifics on timing and size of upcoming drill program, which I’m speculating will begin by month-end, let’s wait until these details are confirmed in news from DBV.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 10, 2014 @ 10:16 pm
Jon- I understand the complexity and look forward to the update. Things will heat up in the Sheslay Valley soon! I beleive that every play in the region will make people money as some companies will ride the coat tails of the leaders in the region. Those that pick wisely, this could be a life changing investment if one buys in early and waits it out until the end (assuming an economic deposit is found and acquired by a major). The market and gurus newsletter writers haven’t discovered the region yet so its still early in the game. Once they do though the leaders in the region with small float will be big movers imo.
I have been accumulating DBV since .05 and continue to average up….bought more yesterday!
Keep up the good work.
Cheers
Comment by d4 — March 11, 2014 @ 3:22 am
John S- keep the faith. Remeber that you are invested in a junior explorer in winter which isn’t drilling. These are only really in play when they are actively drilling. Rely on your due diligence and ignore the daily/weekly fluctuations. If right, the pay off will happen. I beleive we are in a region that will gain a lot of attention this summer.
Comment by d4 — March 11, 2014 @ 4:19 am
DBV has just announced drilling news, crew is being mobilized and drilling will start weather permitting. As mentioned before, Farshad is a man of his word!
Comment by Paul — March 11, 2014 @ 5:19 am
DBV – delivers again as expected! First ones in the Sheslay Valley to drill! Farshad has been eagerly waiting for this as he can’t wait to prove to the market what he thinks he has.
Comment by d4 — March 11, 2014 @ 5:30 am
Too bad BMR can’t keep to its word on their part 2 on DBV article
Comment by Paul — March 11, 2014 @ 7:44 am
Paul, that is totally offside. Jon has been working incredibly hard to put this together, and it’s coming together as we said, but I’m sure it appears a lot easier from your side of the fence. So have a little appreciation at least for the challenges that we face in terms of time, and a huge amount of information to sort through, and to get it right. An attitude of gratitude is always better.
Comment by Terry - BMR — March 11, 2014 @ 8:02 am
Sorry Terry, just expectations are put out by BMR stating when the article would be put out and then it doesnt happen. I’ll be patient and wait.
Comment by Paul — March 11, 2014 @ 8:08 am
Paul, that’s the way it happens in this business, especially in such fluid events like this. Unexpected things also occur – you don’t know but Jon was slowed down with a bad fall just recently. So things happen. That’s life. We have provided some excellent coverage and we have some fabulous material coming up as our research continues.
Comment by Terry - BMR — March 11, 2014 @ 8:13 am
I appreciate the effort!
Comment by Paul — March 11, 2014 @ 8:17 am
Paul,
did you not read Jon’s explanation to d4 above?, I would rather them take the time to get all of the info correct then just to put out info to appease posters. Totally uncalled for and a very low blow imo, you have been touting DBV for sometime and congrats to you for believeing in the CEO when others did not, but give credit to BMR for now seeing what you saw and doing a lot of work on DBV which by the way is helping your investment, no one else is out there touting or covering DBV the way BMR has, you post everything BMR says here on Stockhouse for all of your buddies to see too, so cut BMR some slack, actually I think you owe them an apology too..
Comment by Greg — March 11, 2014 @ 9:32 am
Thanks, Greg, Paul said he appreciates the effort, I accept that. I’m sorry we haven’t put the DBV piece out earlier as promised but that should be interpreted as bullish, not just for the Hat Property and DBV, but the entire Sheslay area. What we’re dealing with here is something on a very massive scale – I repeat, a very massive scale – and the kind of research that’s involved in sorting this out (we’re not dealing with just one property but several) – is enormous. This is a major league area play, though the masses haven’t figured that out yet. We’re all blessed to be in at ground zero but it’s an incredible amount of work on our part, so I just ask that our readers be patient and understanding with regard to that.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 11, 2014 @ 10:07 am
Jon, in car there is any doubt, I”m sorry! Wish you a speedy recovery and thanks for the effort you’re are putting into this up coming article.
Comment by Paul — March 11, 2014 @ 10:11 am