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Gold has been given a major boost from developments in the strategic Crimean peninsula of Ukraine where Russian forces have seized control, sparking a diplomatic war of words between Russia and the West unlike anything seen since the end of the Cold War…bullion, trying to overcome stiff resistance at $1,350, flirted with that level overnight, pulled back slightly, and now has pushed past $1,350…it’s up $24 an ounce at $1,353 as of 7:45 am Pacific…Silver has climbed 36 cents to $21.58…Copper is off 2 pennies at $3.19…Crude Oil, thanks to Russian muscle-flexing, has surged $2.10 a barrel to $104.69 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-tenth of a point at 79.94…

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to run roughshod over U.S. President Barack Obama whose glaring weaknesses on the international stage become more evident each day…the West has no Ronald Reagan or Margarget Thatcher to stand up to the Russians now, so Putin knows he can push the envelope…however, blowback in the form of international economic sanctions against Russia, the world’s largest energy exporter, could be extremely painful for the country…Russia is already struggling economically and the tumbling ruble is making it difficult for the central bank to contain inflation…the U.S. and its European allies are vowing to isolate Putin and punish his nation’s economy, but of course there could also be costs associated with that for the West…”safe haven” capital is flowing into Gold, not the greenback, demonstrating just how weak the U.S. dollar is right now…a test of critical support at 79 on the U.S. Dollar Index seems almost certain…

We’ll probably see more of this in the coming days and weeks – Citi Research has just raised its 2014 Gold and Copper forecasts, although both are below current prices…in a research report released last night, the bank upped its 2014 Gold forecast by 4% to $1,303 an ounce and its Copper forecast by 5% to $3.16 per pound…

Today’s Markets

Asia

There was no “risk-off” mood in China overnight…an easing of cash rates and a stabilization of the yuan helped propel the Shanghai Composite to a 19-point gain overnight as it closed at 2075…the final reading today from HSBC on China’s factory for February activity showed a drop to a seven-month low of 48.5, marking the third straight monthly decline…however, the reading was slightly above the flash reading for February of 48.3…

Japan’s Nikkei hit a one-and-a-half week low on concerns over Ukraine and a strengthening yen…the Nikkei fell 189 points or 1.27%…

Europe

European shares are down significantly in late trading overseas with the unstable situation in the Ukraine weighing on investors’ minds…

North America

The Dow has retreated 157 points as of 7:45 am Pacific…U.S. consumer spending rose more than projected in January, with household purchases up 0.4% after a minuscule 0.1% gain the prior month…it’s a huge week for U.S. economic data which will include the ADP employment report on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls from the Labor Department Friday…

The TSX, benefiting from higher Oil and Gold prices, is up 14 points while the Venture is 3 points lower at 1022…

Venture 14-Year Monthly Chart:

This “big picture” Venture chart from John shows how the CDNX has climbed out of a bear market with a new bullish phase now clearly underway…the next major chart resistance is around 1150 while a test of the first Fib. resistance level of 1467 seems quite possible for 2014…obviously, it won’t be a straight climb up – there will be volatility and pullbacks along the way…investors need to pay attention to important support and resistance areas, and understand the main trend which is now up…note on this chart how the RSI(14) is emerging from a bullish low “W”…in addition, buy pressure has now replaced sell pressure which was dominant on this long-term monthly chart since mid-2012…

A lot of wreckage has been left behind following the devastating 65% drop from the 2465 early 2011 high to the late June 2013 low of 859…and many companies are still struggling to raise money…but capital is flowing into the strong plays, companies with solid management and geological teams, and properties of high merit…it’s our view that northwest B.C.’s prolific Sheslay Valley will pour gasoline on the Venture fire in the coming weeks and months, and discoveries elsewhere will also come into play to bring investors back into this market…

Below is John’s updated 3-year weekly Venture chart from John…buy pressure has steadily been increasing and RSI(14) at 65% is still shy of being in overbought territory…note how the Index broke out above a long-term downtrend line in October, tested that downtrend line repeatedly as new support, and then took the path of least resistance – up – right before Christmas…the birth of a new bull market (somewhat selective, perhaps, but a bull market nonetheless)…

Kaiser:  “Selective Resource Sector Bull Market Is On The Way”

Comments from John Kaiser on the first day of PDAC:

“After three years of a relentlessly brutal bear market, a bottom has been reached and a selective resource sector bull market is on the way,” Kaiser said. “It is not going to be a repeat of the last decade. Now is the window where the best, the biggest, money can be made in the resource juniors because everything has had their evaluations flattened, it’s like a slaughter field, and now we’re watching the survivors stand-up.”

Barisan Gold Corp. (BG, TSX-V) Update

Another Cu-Au porphyry discovery we’re continuing to follow with great interest is in Indonesia where Barisan Gold (BG, TSX-V) reported this morning that hole UTD-005, still in progress (good news), had reached a length of 836 metres as of Friday…“The higher-grade zone forecast to be intersected from 525-675 metres seems to have been extended further to the current depth of 836 metres and seems to continue at depth,” Barisan stated, based on visual analysis as no assays have yet been received for the hole…

As of 7:45 am Pacific, BG is up 3.5 cents at 27 cents…John’s 2+ year weekly chart shows that BG could be ready to break out above a bullish flag…

Reservoir Minerals Inc. (RMC, TSX-V)

Reservoir Minerals (RMC, TSX-V) keeps rolling along and what a success story it has turned out to be, and that’s tremendous for this market…on February 20, the company announced that it had arranged a pair of financings (non-brokered and a bought deal) at $5.75 per share for total gross proceeds of up to $33 million…this came a couple of days after RMC reported more spectacular drill results from the high sulphide epithermal resource within the Cukaru Peki Copper-Gold deposit in Serbia…hole FMTC 1338 intersected 205.6 m grading 4.81% Cu and 2.88 g/t Au for 6.54% CuEq…meanwhile, wide-spaced drilling to the east and north continue to yield long intercepts of associated porphyry-style Copper-Gold mineralization…the deposit forms part of the Timok Project, a joint venture between Reservoir and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX, NYSE)…quite simply, RMC and Freeport have a great deposit on their hands with strong upside potential to increase resources through infill drilling and the likelihood of extensions to the system…in addition, other areas of the Timok magmatic complex (100% held by Reservoir) are highly prospective for fresh discoveries…this is a winner, plain and simple, which is why we included it in our late December list of 20 companies to watch closely in 2014…

Technically, RMC is now meeting measured Fib. resistance around $7.50, raising the possibility of a minor pullback to unwind temporarily overbought conditions…the 20-day SMA, currently just below $6, has provided consistent support since last year…RMC is down 7 cents at $7.32 as of 7:45 am Pacific…

Probe Mines Ltd. (PRB, TSX-V)

One of the top exploration plays in Canada is unquestionably Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V) and its advanced Borden Lake Project in northwestern Ontario…despite the three-fold increase in PRB since April-May of last year, there is still plenty of potential upside in this stock as continued drilling attempts to extend the high-grade zone to the southeast…meanwhile, grades continue to improve in the potential open-pit mineralized zone to the northwest…this is a multi-million ounce deposit that a major will most certainly want to acquire in our view…

The PRB chart is quite simple – very strong support at $3…the next Fib. resistance is around $4.25…PRB is down a dime at $3.20 through the first 75 minutes of trading…

Silver Short-Term Chart

Silver has been finding support at its 200-day moving average (SMA) just above $21, and its major near-term challenge will be to power through two resistance areas – $21.45, and a band between $22 and $23…the trend is clearly bullish, so it wouldn’t be surprising if there’s at least a strong attempt by Silver to get through $23 sometime this month…

Long-Term Silver Chart

RSI(2) on the Silver long-term chart (11-year monthly) is often a very reliable indicator of near-term moves, and what it’s telling us now is that Silver still has room to move higher in the immediate future but temporarily overbought conditions would likely emerge and this would be followed by some consolidation before the next leg up…sell pressure has been dominant since early last year but is clearly weakening…if and when Silver breaks above the downtrend line, watch out…

Note: John and Jon both hold share positions in BG.