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Gold has traded between $1,427 and $1,444 so far today…as of 6:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $3 an ounce at $1,428…Silver is off 26 cents at $23.39…Copper is off 8 cents a pound to $3.27…Crude Oil is 26 cents lower at $94.91 while the U.S. Dollar Index is stronger again, up more than one-tenth of a point to 83.30…

Here’s a positive for Gold – consumers will sell the least used Gold in five years after the collapse in prices in April, curbing a source of metal that typically accounts for about one in every three ounces of global supply…refiners will handle about 1,550 metric tons of old jewelry and other discarded metal this year, 4% less than in 2012 and the least since 2008, according to TD Securities…recycling more than doubled in the decade through 2011 as prices rose to an all-time record of more than $1.,900 an ounce…“April was the worst month in memory,” said Arthur Abramov, the owner of Manhattan Buyers Inc., a cash-for-Gold operator in New York that saw volumes drop to 300 ounces a month from 500 ounces…“A lot of people were shocked, and a lot of people were standoffish about selling,” he added (source: Bloomberg)…

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust stood unchanged at 33.811 million ounces yesterday, just off their lowest level since March, 2009…

April Inflation Eases in India, Gold Imports Up Sharply

One reason Gold has been struggling this year is that global central bank stimulus measures are so far not leading to inflationary pressures as many had expected – expanding balance sheets simply aren’t stoking inflation…in fact, deflation in some economies is more of a concern at the moment than inflation…India is yet another example of where inflation is surprising to the downside…the country’s wholesale price index, its main gauge of inflation, rose just 4.89 percent year -on -year last month – far below expectations for a rise of 5.4% – and slower than the 5.96 percent rise in March…India’s central bank may actually consider cutting interest rates again next month…”Although the central bank’s guidance remains cautious, we believe that the flow of macroeconomic data – continued downside surprises in inflation, a more benign current account and weak growth indicators is creating room for further monetary easing in the coming months,” Rahul Bajoria, economist at Barclays, wrote…

Meanwhile, India saw a 138% jump in Gold imports in April – likely an aberration with banks rushing to import Gold before the implementation of certain restrictions that just came into effect…in addition, of course, consumers were taking advantage of prices not seen in two years while the wedding season and a popular Hindu festival were also factors in driving interest in Gold…the May figure will be more indicative of what the true appetite is at the moment for Gold in India…over the past year, the Indian government has stepped up efforts to moderate Gold demand in order to curb its trade deficit…in January, it raised the import duty on Gold to 6% from 4% to curb imports, following two hikes in 2012…these duties together with a slowing economy have actually had limited impact on denting Gold demand as it is still seen as a reliable store of wealth in that country…following the release of the April data, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) yesterday brought into effect previously announced curbs on banks importing Gold…

Is China Preparing For Slower Growth?

According to local media reports, China could lower its official growth forecast for next year from 7.5% to 7% – a move that would definitely be worth watching and one that suggests Beijing is growing more comfortable with a slower pace of growth while its re-balances its economy and implements structural reforms…economic growth of 7% is apparently the bottom line for policymakers and any stimulus efforts could make the task of controlling the property market and inflation much harder, the China Securities Journal reported late last week…in addition, recent press reports have stated that Premier Li Keqiang has requested studies on the feasibility of lowering the official growth target to 7% next year…China’s 2012 growth of 7.8% was its slowest in 13 years…over the past three decades the Chinese economy has grown at an average annual rate of 10%…to shift the economy to a more sustainable level of growth long-term, Beijing has pledged to make domestic consumption, rather than investment and exports, the key driver of economic activity…

IEA Forecasts U.S. To Account For One-Third Of New Oil Supplies

The U.S. will account for a third of new oil supplies over the next five years, more than previously expected, according to the International Energy Agency, underscoring the impact of the shale revolution…in its medium-term review of the oil market, the industrialized countries’ energy watchdog sharply raised its forecast for North American oil production from six months ago and slightly cut its forecast for capacity additions from the OPEC cartel…the new outlook, released this morning, paints a mildly bearish picture for Oil prices, as production will grow faster than demand, building a large cushion of spare capacity in the market…“North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world,” Maria van der Hoeven, IEA executive director, said…“The good news is that this is helping to ease a market that was relatively tight for several years”…the IEA report stated, “There is hardly any aspect of the global oil supply chain that will not undergo some measure of transformation over the next five years, with significant consequences for the global economy and Oil security“…U.S. Oil production grew by more than 800,000 barrels a day last year, the biggest annual increase on record, thanks to rapid growth in output from shale oilfields such as the Bakkan in North Dakota and eagle Ford in Texas…average North American production is expected to grow by 3.9 million barrels a day between 2012 and 2018, accounting for more than half of the increase in non-OPEC production for the period…how Canada deals with this new energy reality – and how it starts moving supplies to critical Asian markets when the expected new premier of British Columbia wants little to do with pipelines from Alberta – is going to be one of this country’s major challenges in the years ahead…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight…Japan’s Nikkei average took a breather, falling 24 points to close at 14758 after robust gains yesterday and last week…China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 25 points to finish at 2217…trading in Europe has been relatively quiet today, while in North America the Dow is shooting for its 18th consecutive positive Tuesday…yes, Tuesdays have been good to the Dow with a record 17 straight advances…as of 6:45 am, the Dow is up 25 points at 15117…the TSX has gained 21 points while the Venture has slipped 2 points to 955…3 straight negative days for Gold (Thursday, Friday and Monday) dropped the Venture to its 20-day moving average (SMA) on a closing basis yesterday…so far, resistance at 970 is proving to be formidable…we’ll see what happens in the coming days, but the 20-day SMA is now rising for the first time since January and it could provide important support…

TSX Gold Index Chart Update

The TSX Gold Index is currently basing within a symmetrical triangle that ranges from approximately 206 to 190…we would expect a rally in Gold stocks if the Index is able to push above the triangle, though resistance at the down trendline (currently at 230) will be stiff…selling pressure recently has been declining as shown in this 6-month daily chart from John…

True Gold Mining (TGM, TSX-V)

A trend we’re seeing on the increase recently is juniors securing financings with majors – True Gold Mining (TGM, TSX-V, formerly Riverstone Resources) is the latest example as it just completed a $10 million private placement with Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK, TSX) at 33 cents per share when the share price was trading in the high 20’s…True Gold has two advanced projects in Burkina Faso, west Africa…if Gold stocks can start gaining some traction, TGM could at least challenge its down trendline resistance at 45 cents…it closed yesterday at 36.5 cents and has risen three days in a row…definitely one to put on the radar screen for the long-term gives its strong management and relationship with Teck…

Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. (GWG, TSX)

Great Western Minerals’ (GWG, TSX) share price has taken a beating since early 2011, plunging from an all-time high of $1.25 in early 2011 to a nearly 4-year low of 13.5 cents this month…it closed yesterday at 15.5 cents…the company is attempting to become a leading rare earth producer outside of China and had just over $50 million in working capital as of the end of December…on Thursday this week, GWG releases its first quarter financials and will also be addressing key market initiatives and its overall business strategy…with approximately 420 million shares outstanding, GWG has a current market cap of $65 million based on yesterday’s 15.5-cent closing price…selling pressure has been intense over the past year, as you can see from John’s 3-year weekly chart below, but the stock may have found at least a temporary bottom at 13.5 cents and could be a good trade for a bounce higher in the weeks ahead…that will depend a lot on Thursday’s results, so put this one on your radar screen…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in TGM or GWG.