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Gold has traded between $1,465 and $1,480 so far today…as of 7:15 am Pacific, bullion is down $1 an ounce at $1,470…Silver is off 13 cents at $24.00…Copper is flat at $3.29 after a powerful move to the upside Friday…Crude Oil, after climbing more than $7 barrel the last two weeks to a 1-month high, has shed 35 cents to $95.26 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-tenth of a point to 82.19…

In yet another crackdown on Gold imports, the Reserve Bank of India has proposed a fresh set of measures to be mandated at the end of this month to curb imports and tighten criteria for banks lending against the yellow metal…the measures were unveiled Friday in the central bank’s monetary policy for 2013-2014…with the country termed the world’s largest net Gold importer, the outflow of dollars has weakened the value of the rupee…Gold and Crude Oil imports have also contributed to India’s large trade deficit…“The curbs will certainly bring down imports because Gold will not be freely available,” said Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director and former chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, in Bloomberg article…“The banks import Gold on consignment basis from a miner without investing anything and it remains the property of the miner until the bullion dealers take delivery…if they are not allowed to buy on consignment basis, imports will be restricted and chaos will prevail in the market”…India has tripled import taxes on Gold from as low as 2% in January last year after the current account shortfall, the broadest measure of trade, widened and the rupee slumped to a record low against the U.S. dollar…Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram has blamed the deficit on a “passion” for Gold, saying the gap is a greater concern than the worst budget deficit among the so-called BRIC nations…the deficit widened to $32.6 billion in the last quarter of 2012…India’s Gold imports dropped 11% last year to 860 tons from a record 969 tons in 2011, the World Gold Council estimates…demand for jewelry and investment fell to 864.2 tons in 2012, the second straight year of decline, it said…

Gold’s immediate challenge is to overcome stiff resistance in the $1,480’s (specifically, the Fibonacci $1,484 retracement level as John’s recent charts have shown)…Gold has reacted twice at that level over the past 6 trading sessions…while the Gold price has stabilized recently due to a pick-up in physical buying, the big question is whether physical buyers have enough capital to support this market and replace the capital that’s fleeing “paper” Gold…even in bullion is able to slice through the $1,484 resistance, it’s going to have an even bigger challenge overcoming a band of resistance in the previous support zone between $1,500 and $1,550…the declining 50-day moving average (SMA) is at $1,537…

Services Sector Slows In China

Growth in China’s services sector slowed sharply in April to its lowest point since August, 2011, a private sector survey showed this morning in fresh evidence that the economic recovery in that country will remain modest and could be facing wider risks…the HSBC services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.1 in April from 54.3 in March, with new order expansion the slowest in 20 months and staffing levels in the service sector decreasing for the first time since January, 2009…the HSBC services PMI follows a similar survey by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which found non-manufacturing activity eased to 54.5…”The cooling of service sector activity in April likely reflected the knock-on effect of slower manufacturing growth, the impact of property tightening measures and the spreading bird flu”, according to HSBC’s China chief economist Qu Hongbin…

Updated Copper Chart

A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, short covering and a large drawdown in LME warehouse stocks contributed to a big jump (6%) in the Copper price Friday, but the metal will have a tough time overcoming resistance against a backdrop of slower growth in China…below is a 2.5-year weekly chart from John…important support between $3 and $3.15 has held for now at least…after falling to $3 in the fall of 2011, Copper rallied 30% to $4…after falling to $3.24 in the late spring of last year, it rallied nearly 20% to $3.84…we’ll see what happens this time after Copper recently hit a low of $3.04…resistance levels are $3.35, $3.50 and $3.80…the primary trend in our view remains bearish for technical and fundamental reasons…

Updated Silver Charts

Nothing dramatic has changed from last week with regard to Silver which is trying to establish a base at $22 and move higher…RSI(2) and SS both continue to suggest that Silver does have some room to rally from current levels, but we would expect any upside move to be met with strong resistance at the $26 level which of course was previous support…below is a 3-year weekly chart…

Short-Term Silver Chart – 3-Year Weekly

Long-Term Silver Chart – 11-Year Monthly

The down trendline on this long-term chart really tells the picture, and the break below critical chart support and the Pitchfork tine last month was definitely a bearish development along with the -DI/+DI crossover…current oversold conditions (RSI-2 is at only 3.85%) could certainly moderate over the immediate and short-term, allowing for a test of resistance at $26, but we see a strong probability of a new low in Silver later this year (see the strong support line immediately below $20)…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were higher overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite gaining 26 points to 2231…Hong Kong shares shot up to an 8-week high while Japan’s financial markets were closed due to a public holiday…they re-open tomorrow…European shares are mixed in late trading overseas…the euro zone’s business downturn dragged on in April, according to surveys released this morning, suggesting the region may be falling deeper into recession this quarter…the Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) also showed that Germany is now suffering a contraction in business activity that has long been hampering France, Italy and Spain…the Dow is down 8 points at 14966 as of 7:15 am Pacific while the TSX has gained 44 points to 12482…the Venture is up 3 points to 968 as it hugs its still-declining 20-day moving average (SMA)…as John’s chart showed yesterday, 970 is important resistance the Venture must overcome this week in order to build on its recent momentum…

Victory Ventures (VVN, TSX-V) Chart

As we mentioned last week, while it was trading around 6 cents, Victory Ventures (VVN, TSX-V) is a tantalyzing speculation given its low share count (17.5 million currently O/S) and the fact it will soon be drilling in the heart of the Iskut district in northern B.C. where Colorado Resources (CXO, TSX-V) is working on a significant Copper-Gold discovery…this area is clearly heating up, and Victory’s drill program will test a chargeability anomaly increasing in strength with depth in what’s believed to be a southwest dipping syenite body…11 km to the southwest is Imperial Metals’ (III, TSX) Red Chris Mine which is expected to go into production next year…below is a 1.5-year VVN chart from John…this company has only been around for two years and the record volume last week is a very bullish sign…Friday’s 8-cent close gives VVN a market cap of only $1.4 million, leaving plenty of potential upside over the next few months…as always, perform your own due diligence…drilling success in the area will obviously be a key factor in determining how high this could go, but at current levels we do like the risk-reward ratio even in this challenging overall market environment…one clue to watch for in VVN – a close above resistance at 9 cents…through the first 45 minutes of trading this morning, VVN is up a penny-and-a-half at 9.5 cents on volume of nearly 300,000 shares…

Aldrin Resource Corp. (ALN, TSX-V)

An interesting mover Friday was Aldrin Resource Corp. (ALN, TSX-V) which resumed trading after being halted March 19 following a “fundamental acquisition” that required Venture receipt and review of documentation…Aldrin has acquired an option to earn a 70% interest in what appears to be a high-quality land package (the Triple M Uranium Property) totaling 12,000 hectares within 9 to 11 kilometres of the Fission Energy/Alpha Minerals Inc. Patterson Lake discovery…ALN climbed as high as 10.5 cents Friday and closed at 8.5 cents on total volume (all exchanges) of 3.2 million shares…this is one to watch closely over the next few months given the current technical posture of the stock (note the bullish +Di/-DI crossover in John’s 6-year monthly chart below) and the strength of the uranium story…ALN is unchanged at 8.5 cents in early trading today…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in ALN.  Jon holds a position in VVN.