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July 17, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded in a range between $1,585 and $1,600 so far today in advance of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s two days of testimony before Congress…as of 5:35 am Pacific, the yellow metal is unchanged at $1,589…Silver is 2 cents higher at $27.33…Copper is off a penny at $3.48…Crude Oil  is up slightly at $88.72 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 83.15… Yesterday, we wrote about the great potential for Silver given its current chart and the very bullish COT structure… With Gold, keep in mind we’re about to enter a strong seasonal period – August and September are typically strong months, and much better than July, as the chart below shows (beware of March as we were painfully reminded this year)… All Eyes On Bernanke – Again Bernanke presents his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress beginning at 10 am Pacific against a backdrop of slowing global economic activity and the euro zone’s continuing debt crisis…U.S. retail sales fell in June for the third straight month, the longest run of consecutive drops since 2008 when the country was mired in recession…while investors are hoping Bernanke will give new hints of additional Fed action in the near future, it’s certain he’ll bring up the the so-called “fiscal cliff” to lawmakers which is the combination of automatic spending cuts and the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts scheduled to take effect January 1 barring action from Congress… As expected, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecast yesterday… Spain sold 3.56 billion euros ($4.36 billion U.S.) of short-term debt yesterday, just above its target range, and debt costs dipped from a month ago though held at high levels as investors were left unimpressed by the country’s latest wave of austerity measures…key auctions of longer-term bonds take place Thursday… Today’s Markets Asian markets were stronger overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite gaining 13 points to 2161 after closing at a three-year low yesterday…profit warnings across sectors ranging from transportation to consumer goods in China have been dragging down the Shanghai recently…the Ministry of Finance reported yesterday that profits at Chinese state-owned enterprises fell 11.6% in the first-half to 1.02 trillion yuan ($160 billion U.S.)… U.S. stock index futures are pointing toward a modestly higher open as of 5:35 am Pacific, thanks to a batch of better than expected earnings… The Venture Exchange fell 4 points yesterday to 1183 on continued light volume…one of the stars, however, was GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) which hit $1.00 per share for the first time in nearly five years…GQC gained 9 cents to close at 96 cents on Venture volume of 2.4 million…continued speculation prior to release of the next assay results from the company’s Romero discovery should allow GQC to reach John’s short-term Fibonacci level of $1.20, while strong support exists at 85 cents… Reservoir Minerals (RMC, TSX-V) Impressive drill results propelled Reservoir Minerals higher yesterday (it gained 75% to $1.14) but keep in mind the 1.28% CuEq was from a 266-metre intersection at considerable depth – 598 to 864 metres…still, the company believes “this drill hole represents the possible discovery of a potentially large blind copper-Gold epithermal and porphyry mineralized system, and may be consistent with historical grades reported from other high-sulphidation systems in this world-class copper mining district, such as the Bor deposit which lies approximately 7.5 kilometres north of FMTC 1210″…a major (Freeport) is earning a controlling interest in the project, and as a result investors have to keep in mind that this makes it much more difficult for a junior to manage the news flow on the discovery…RMC is worth keeping an eye on, though, and has a tight share structure… For comparison purposes, we much prefer the situation Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) is about to enter…RBW is going after very prospective near-surface targets with high-grade potential in the West Kootenays, and has a 100% interest in all of its projects…with a current market cap of only $6 million, one can either accumulate now in advance of the anticipated drilling speculation phase or pay a higher price to come in later as excitement builds…we expect to post Part 2 of our interview with President David W. Johnston tomorrow…RBW closed yesterday at 17 cents… Gold Reach Ventures (GRV, TSX-V) Gold Reach Ventures (GRV, TSX-V) gained 18 cents yesterday to close at $1.33…GRV continues to hold promise, but for now keep in mind the stock is consolidating in a downsloping flag…a declining 20-day moving average (SMA), currently at $1.50, is also a constraining factor at the moment… Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in GRV.  Both John and Jon hold share positions in RBW and Jon holds a position in GQC.

13 Comments

  1. What does it say for our markets, when we turn to the
    downside in a flash, all because Bernanke told us what
    we already knew, that is, we are in slack shape. R !

    Comment by Bert — July 17, 2012 @ 6:09 am

  2. No goodies from the feddys!

    Comment by Hugh — July 17, 2012 @ 7:43 am

  3. Libor

    Sir Mervyn King states & i quote Bankers involved in the
    rate rigging scandal are guilty of fraud motivated by personal
    greed unquote Shame on the bankers.

    I would suggest, that some of our companies, may be using the bad
    markets conditions as an excuse for their low share prices, when
    all they had from day one was moose pastures & someone willing
    to talk the talk. Shame !

    Comment by Bert — July 17, 2012 @ 7:56 am

  4. Finally some buying pressure on RBW….as little as it may be.

    Comment by db — July 17, 2012 @ 9:41 am

  5. Someone in the know is picking away at RBW, which would indicate some kind of news
    is close… Let’s guess that we close at 0.20 this evening. R !

    Comment by Bert — July 17, 2012 @ 9:42 am

  6. I was hoping for 19c Bert, but I like your guess better.
    P.S. I have an Uncle who lives in Holyrood, quite a unique part of the world your living in!

    Comment by db — July 17, 2012 @ 9:45 am

  7. DB
    Holyrood is on the east coast, i am on the west coast. Thank God we are surrounded by water. R !

    Comment by Bert — July 17, 2012 @ 9:54 am

  8. Bullish signs?

    Comment by Don — July 17, 2012 @ 12:06 pm

  9. TO days smile .MY wife said to me everything I said to you went in one ear and out the other I said at least it crossed my mind

    Comment by gil — July 17, 2012 @ 1:40 pm

  10. RBW will shoot up once the real buyers step in… meanwhile.. me and you . GBB is like Dead Sea water… some small investors are dumping as there is little support at 8 cents… I have lowered my Buy lots and my sell lots at 12 cents. NAR I bought some at 7 cents today… and will continue buy it at 7 cents if someone is willing to sell off at this price. GQC… what a star as it passed one dollar and I was interested at 58 cents which was not long ago…. Currently, I do not have any holdings… Too risky to buy at this level… it does not matter if 20 -30 % may still be there. SFF will come back soon… current price is low …

    Comment by Theodore — July 17, 2012 @ 4:09 pm

  11. GBB will go no where until they release updated 43-101 or win their court case.

    Comment by Hugh — July 18, 2012 @ 12:38 am

  12. #1) GBB WILL win their court case; and #2) GBB will be back on track once their updated resource estimate is released.

    Comment by Steven — July 18, 2012 @ 5:29 am

  13. GBB.V – There’s no denying that Genivar made a right pigs ear of the job at Granada but you have to wonder where was the oversight from management. What on earth were they doing not identifying the problem earlier and rectifying it. It should never have gotten to the courts and now serves as a distraction to what is the real story – the identification of a major low grade gold deposit.

    Comment by Rosco — July 18, 2012 @ 5:57 am

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