Not surprisingly, CNN and other media outlets reported this weekend that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in 8 out of 10 battleground states based on Presidential opinion polls entering Tuesday’s elections.
Even an accurate long-standing stock market indicator is leaning toward Biden. The S&P 500 has posted a slightly negative return over the last 3 months (August through October). A negative S&P 500 performance during that key time frame leading up to a Presidential election has flipped the White House 8 out of 9 times in the last 68 years, the only exception being Eishenhower in 1956.
But there has never been a President like Donald Trump. The enthusiasm behind his movement (and that’s what it is, a movement unlike any other in American history), is reflected by the massive crowds he’s attracting even during a pandemic that has killed over 200,000 Americans. Biden, on the other hand, when he finds the time and energy to crawl out of his basement wearing a mask, struggles to fill a phone booth.
Trump supporters have multiple reasons to be optimistic entering Tuesday. And so do investors as a decisive Trump victory should be well received by Wall Street.
Five key broad factors support the argument that the Trump Train will not be derailed Tuesday – not even the China virus can stop it:
- Americans have a great sense of fairness – they know when they’re looking at a “rigged deck”. Much of the mainstream media, not afraid to hide its hatred of Trump, has crossed the boundary of journalistic fairness, collaborating with the Democratic Party (even censoring information deemed unfavourable to Biden). The media mob have also collaborated with intelligence agencies and the tech monopolies that have choked off the average person’s access to legitimate information. The media have really become “the enemy of the American people” as Trump famously stated in 2016, even promoting rioting in cities, demonizing law enforcement, hyping COVID-19, rooting against American economic and stock market success, and cheering on the sick “cancel culture” movement;
- Poll methodology is incorrect – the “shy” Trump voters are simply not being properly accounted for, especially in key swing states. Even 4 years after the last election, polling companies (with only a handful of exceptions) still haven’t figured out that traditional polling methods do not work for an untraditional, disruptive candidate such as Trump;
- The incredible enthusiasm of the Trump movement is also reflected in bike and boat rallies, Amish horse and buggy parades, even a pro-Trump rally on the Golden Gate Bridge in uber liberal San Francisco. Where are similar events for Biden (unless you consider the protests and riots in Portland, Denver and other cities as Harris/Biden campaign events);
- Republicans have a better “ground game” than the Democrats (the Biden campaign has a big edge in media spending but so did the Clinton campaign in 2016). Republicans have knocked on far more doors in 2020 – Democrats have been afraid to;
- A majority of Americans reject socialism – and that’s the direction today’s Democratic Party has swung toward.
Just like in 2016, Democrats banking on polls from the Fake News media are in for a shock this Tuesday:
- The “Social Circle” question (which candidate do you expect other people in your social circle to vote for?) predicts another Trump electoral college victory (he may still lose the national popular vote but win the state battle). This comes from fascinating data (ignored by the mainstream media), based on a few different methodologies, from the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll. “From our previous research on social judgements, we learned that people seem to know their immediate social circles quite well. Their answers about the distribution of income, health status – even the relationship satisfaction of their friends, family and acquaintances – were often in the right ballpark. And when we averaged the data from their responses across a large national sample, it provided a surprisingly accurate picture of the overall population. So, we’re hoping to learn whether it’s possible, from this question, to harvest this ‘wisdom of one’s own crowd’ to predict the election as well as, or even better than, the standard questions about one’s own voting intentions.” Have responses to this question successfully predicted any previous election outcomes? “Yes, in all 5 of the elections in which we tested this question, the social circle question predicted election outcomes better than traditional questions about voters’ own intentions. These 5 elections were the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the 2017 French Presidential election, the 2017 Dutch Parliamentary election, the 2018 Swedish Parliamentary election, and the 2018 U.S. election for House of Representatives. In both the U.S. elections, the social circle question predicted national and state level results better than the ‘own intention’ question in the same polls. In fact, data from the social circle question in 2016 accurately predicted which candidate won each state, so it predicted Trump’s electoral college victory”;
- The Trafalgar Group, a Georgia-based polling firm known for its ability to correctly sample hard-to-reach, conservative Trump voters, shows President Trump with leads in the key battleground states of North Carolina, Florida and Michigan. During the 2016 Presidential race – widely predicted wrong by the mainstream polling establishment – the Trafalgar Group was the only pollster within the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator to show Trump defeating Hillary Clinton in Michigan. Their polls in 2016 also showed Trump winning Pennsylvania – again, they were nearly alone in projecting Trump’s narrow victory there – and thus taking the White House. Trafalgar’s chief polster Robert Cahaly’s prognosticating abilities should not be taken lightly. He has spoken publicly about what he calls “hidden” Trump voters who face what he calls a “social desirability bias” where conservative and independent Trump voters feel marginalized and fearful about expressing their support for the President due to social stigma in media and social media. Cahaly told RealClearPolitics this bias in 2020 is “worse than it was 4 years ago”;
- Rasmussen Reports is the only nationally recognized public opinion firm that still tracks President Trump’s job approval ratings on a daily basis. The latest results show 51% of likely U.S. voters approve of Trump’s job performance while 48% disapprove;
- American Voters Are More Satisfied in 2020 than they were in 2016. A recent Gallup poll showed that 56% of Americans say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago. That could well be the telling in this case given that just 4 years ago marked the end of the Biden/Obama era. Why would voters return to Biden if they are happier now than when he was in office as Obama’s VP?;
- The U.S. economy is roaring back after a lengthy COVID-19 shutdown, much faster than the “experts” predicted with rising GDP and falling unemployment. America is inching closer to the blockbuster economy of early 2020, thanks to low taxes, deregulation, and smarter trade and “climate change” policy;
- Biden The Tax Increaser: Candidates who promise tax increases, or have a history of supporting tax increases, tend to lose versus those pushing for tax cuts;
- Trump will once again win key swing states Florida and Pennsylvania. Biden’s confusing stance on fracking and his Trudeau-style talk in the last debate about how America needs to “transition away” from the Oil and gas industry will cost him Pennsylvania and other important states;
- Pennsylvania voter registration: In 2016, Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes were key to President Trump’s victory. He won Pennsylvania by a slim 44,292 votes out of nearly 6 million. That November, the Democrats had nearly a 900,000 voter registration advantage over the Republicans. That number is now down to a 700,000 registration advantage and has narrowed by 100,000 in the last year;
- Florida, too: In 2008, Democrats held nearly a 700,000 voter registration advantage and Barack Obama carried the state by 236,148 votes. By 2012 that advantage slipped to 558,272 registrations and Obama won there by 74,309 votes. In 2016, Democrats had a 327,483 registration advantage and Trump carried the state by 112,991 votes. Now the Democrats’ voter registration advantage is down nearly 200,000 to just a 134,242 lead, which Politico called an “historic low”. Obviously, the movement towards Republicans in Florida bodes very well for the President;
- Latinos for Trump: How ironic, considering the mainstream media views this President as a “racist” – Trump could well receive an historic level of support from Latino voters in 2020. In 2016, Clinton won among Latinos in Florida 62% to 35%. The majority of Latinos in Florida are now behind Trump, and Latinos elsewhere across the country are rallying behind the President;
- Latino voters make up large portions of the electorate in a number of crucial states, including 2 top battlegrounds – Florida and Arizona – as well as Texas, plus Nevada where Trump is seeking to broaden his own map. They are also a smaller, but important, part of the electorate in other critical areas, including Philadelphia, the biggest city in what could be the most important state on this year’s electoral map;
- African Americans For Trump: In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%. Keep in mind that the President only received 8% of the Black vote in 2016. If Trump received just 16% of the Black vote this time, let alone an even higher number, that would all but secure critical states like Michigan for the President. Trump has invested tremendous energy into the Black community and he’ll be rewarded handsomely for that effort on Tuesday despite the media’s false narrative around race issues;
- Trump is looking strong in Ohio: Since 1944, Ohioans have sided with the losing candidate only once – opting for Nixon over Kennedy in 1960;
- Biden has to stop President Trump in 4 out of 4 states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. If Trump wins just 1 of those in 3 of the 4 he won last time, he will be re-elected President;
- No incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time – higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama;
- Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3–0 in those elections;
- Biden is the classic “professional politician” which is why Americans rejected Clinton in 2016 and voted in Trump.
