BullMarketRun.ca

Check back later today for Daniel’s Den and visit the BMR comments section throughout the day for updates for helpful information.

1. Gold has traded between $1,329 and $1,339 so far today…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion has added $4 an ounce to $1,336…Silver has recovered 23 cents to $16.80…Copper has jumped 5 cents to $3.23 while Nickel has surged 11 cents to $6.20…Zinc is up a penny at $1.62 while Cobalt remains steady at $36.40…Crude Oil is off 84 cents a barrel at $64.61 while the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied another one-fifth of a point to 89.44…China this week is expected to report solid growth in January trade, moderating inflation and renewed bank lending, but the timing of the long Lunar New Year holidays will make it difficult to determine clear trends for at least another month…

2. Inflows of Gold into physically backed exchange-traded products hit 32 tonnes in January after a lackluster 4th quarter when holdings rose by a modest 10 tonnes, according to Standard Chartered. “ETP inflows since the start of 2017 are at profitable levels; only if prices fall below $1,200/oz do almost 250 tonnes become loss-making, which is not our base-case scenario.  Gold prices have stalled, but we think consolidation at lower levels bodes well for prices in the coming months, particularly as the recent move higher was not accompanied by broad investor interest,” Standard Chartered added…

3. The U.S. Treasury Department quietly released data last week estimating its 2018 borrowing needs would check in at $955 billion, then top $1 trillion in the next 2 fiscal years…those sums are considerably higher than the $519 billion in debt issued last year, and an upward revision to estimates released by the Treasury in late 2017…the federal government’s voracious financing needs come at a time when it’s already pulling in record levels of tax revenue, to the tune of $444 billion in October through November 2017…given broad-based tax cuts (corporate and individual) that have just been signed into law, and increasing interest rates, the immediate pressure on the U.S. budget will likely intensify…historically, there’s a close correlation between a trend of rising U.S. federal budget deficits and increasing Gold prices…President Trump is the self-described “King of Debt”, so we shouldn’t be surprised if the U.S. runs a string of trillion dollar deficits with Gold responding accordingly…

4. This should prove interesting – the federal Liberal government will introduce sweeping legislation this week to overhaul the environmental assessment system for major resource projects in Canada…let’s pray they get it right…this comes at a time when over $150 billion in resource projects in this country have been either slowed or sidelined altogether because of over-regulation and opposition from radical environmental, aboriginal and/or community groups…the downside is adding up, and Canadians may wake up one morning in the not-so-distant future and wonder what the hell they’ve done when they see a booming U.S. economy under Trump and a Canadian economy strangled by climate change extremism, high taxes and an onerous regulatory environment…meanwhile, the Oil-hating “save the planet” ideologues running the B.C. government are prepared  (in their own words) to “employ every tool available…to stop the expansion of the (already federally approved) Kinder Morgan pipeline”, with illegal actions taken by the Green Monster last week that effectively violate Canada’s Constitution while sparking an angry response from even the left-wingers in Alberta...

5. Markets are under pressure through the first 30 minutes of trading but a reversal early this week is likely in the works…after a 666-point decline Friday, the Dow is off another 210 points as of 7:00 am Pacific…the most obvious catalyst for the more than 1,200-point drop in the Dow over the past week has been the spike in U.S. long-term bond yields which gathered momentum after a robust January jobs report showed the best wage growth since 2009…in Toronto, the TSX is down 103 points…Aurora Cannabis (ACB, TSX) has signed a deal to buy a minority stake in Alberta-based Liquor Stores N.A. Ltd., which plans to launch a brand of cannabis retail stores…under the deal, Aurora will acquire a 19.9% stake in the company for $103.5 million through a non-brokered private placement…Harvest Portfolios is about to launch Canada’s first blockchain ETF – Blockchain Technologies ETF…the Venture is down 10 more points at 801 in early trading but has bounced off its low of 790…watch for a potential hammer reversal somewhere within the strong support band that stretches from 770 (500-day SMA) to 800…the combination of cryptocurrency carnage and plunging cannabis shares has contributed to the Venture’s worst-ever start to the month of February, but the pattern is very similar to the one in early 2010 when the Index roared back after hitting an important low in early February…during bull market years, the Venture’s rising 500-day SMA has provided highly reliable support…an early stage Copper-Gold porphyry discovery that caused ML Gold (MLG, TSX-V) to more than double in value during January should gain increasing momentum this month leading into geophysics news, initial assays and more drilling…MLG is off a penny at 20 cents as of 7:00 am Pacific…

6. When recreational marijuana is legalized in Canada this summer, British Columbians won’t be able to buy it along with a six pack of beer…Global News reports that provincial Solicitor General Mike Farnworth is set to unveil a suite of rules and regulations for legal cannabis in B.C. later today…chief among them will be a ban on the sale of cannabis products alongside any alcohol products…in addition to the liquor store ban, Farnworth is set to announce that landlords will have the right to ban tenants from growing cannabis on their premises…the province has previously announced that marijuana will be sold in a mixture of privately owned and publicly owned outlets; it is now set to clarify that none of those outlets will be liquor stores…under the model, it would be possible for a stand-alone cannabis retail outlet to be established next door to a liquor store, but not within its doors…

7. Bitcoin fell below $8,000 for the 3rd time in 4 days today amid a broader sell-off in cryptocurrencies that has seen over $60 billion of valued erased from the market in 24 hours…Bitcoin is now trading around $7,500, it’s lowest price since mid-November…other major virtual currencies, including Etherum and Ripple, also fell sharply in the last 24 hours with the market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market plunging to $365.27 billion early this morning, according to data from Coinmarketcap.com…Financial News, a publication closely affiliated with the People’s Bank of China, reported today that the central bank will block all platforms related to cryptocurrency trading and the issuance of so-called initial coin offerings (ICOs)…previously it had stamped out domestic cryptocurrency exchanges but it extended its crackdown to foreign platforms, too…major banks are also starting to curb the use of their services to buy cryptocurrencies…major U.K. lender Lloyds Banking Group said today that it was stopping people buying cryptocurrencies using credit cards…the move follows U.S. banks J.P. Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup who implemented the same policy last week…

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In an unprecedented start to the month of February for the Venture, the Index suddenly retreated 52 points or 6% over the first 2 sessions – just a minor blip or the beginning of something more serious?…

Check back later today for Daniel’s Den and visit the BMR comments section throughout the day for updates for helpful information.

1. Gold has traded between $1,334 and $1,350 so far today…as of 7:00 am Pacific, following a modestly better than expected U.S. jobs report, bullion has retreated $14 an ounce to $1,334…Silver has slipped 42 cents to $16.78…Copper is down slightly at $3.19 while Nickel has backed off 17 cents to $6.18 after a sharp run yesterday…Cobalt remains steady at $36.40, just 11 cents shy of a new decade high…Crude Oil has fallen $1.04 a barrel to $64.76 while the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied two-thirds of a point to 89.27…exchange operator CME Group reports that metals-trading volume averaged a record 763,000 contracts per day in January, up 45% from 525,000 in the same month a year ago…

2. The hot U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January, according to data released this morning by the Labor Department, with the unemployment rate dipping to a 17-year low while wages increased at the fastest pace since the recession…however, the report sent interest rates higher which has put additional pressure on stocks…the benchmark 10-year yield rose to a 4-year high of 2.85% this morning…yesterday, the 30-year yield broke above 3% for the first time since May…in other U.S. economic data this morning, consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan’s survey was stronger than expected at 95.7 in the final January reading…meanwhile, a rather startling number from the Atlanta Fed got little attention yesterday from the mainstream media…its latest forecast calls for blockbuster growth numbers in Q1 in the U.S. with GDP expected to surge 5.4%…that would be the best quarter since the Great Recession ended in 2009…however, the Atlanta Fed’s tracker has shown to have reliability issues in the past due to the model’s sensitivity to the ISM manufacturing index…

3. Canada’s pipeline disaster is deteriorating into a national unity crisis in addition to a financial one as the country’s land-locked Oil is deeply discounted, resulting in lost revenue, taxes and royalties in the tens of millions of dollars a day, not to mention Oil stocks that are under-performing…meanwhile, in response to illegal and unconstitutional action by the new Oil-hating government of British Columbia that effectively blocks the already approved Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion (inter-provincial rail and pipelines are under federal jurisdiction), the most Prime Minister Trudeau has done so far is offer a promise that the project will be built…if the PM was really serious about supporting the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, he would act with the same eagerness, boldness and urgency he has with respect to the legalization of marijuana…unfortunately, we’re left with a country hamstrung by climate change extremism that cares more about getting pot to market than Oil to market…Alberta took its first retaliatory step against B.C. yesterday by suspending talks on the purchase of electricity from that province…in addition, there are growing efforts in Alberta to boycott a range of B.C. products…everyone should have seen this coming – the NDP usurped power in B.C. last spring by forging a deal with the Green Party and both signed an agreement that included a shared commitment to stop the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion…“Immediately employ every tool available to the new government to stop the expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline, the 7-fold increase in tanker traffic on our coast, and the transportation of raw bitumen through our province.” (Section 2, point “C” of the 10-page NDP-Green agreement)…Trudeau knew about that clause months ago but has so far failed to stand up to a challenge that’s not only a major B.C.-Alberta issue but pits B.C. against the federal government and Canada as a whole…

5. Over $100 billion was wiped off the global cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours amid concerns over tighter regulation and worries that the Bitcoin price was manipulated on a major exchange…the total market capitalization or value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation stood at $405 billion early this morning, according to data from CoinMarketCap.com, which takes into account the prices of digital coins across a number of key exchanges…that’s a fall of $112.6 billion in value from the day before…the New York Times reported Wednesday that an increasing number of digital currency investors are worried the price of Bitcoin and other digital currencies have been inflated by cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, which is included in CoinDesk’s price index…Bloomberg reported that in December, the U.S. Commodity Futures and Trading Commission subpoenaed Bitfinex and a cryptocurrency company called Tether, which is run by many of the same executives…

6. The combination of cryptocurrency carnage and plunging cannabis shares has contributed to the Venture’s worst-ever start to the month of February…the Index, which climbed as high as 940 last month, has given up most of its gains since the big move began in early December, off another 28 points at 816 as of 7:00 am Pacific…resource stocks are holding up better and a shift to the resource side could be on the way…though the Venture has fallen below the 850 breakout point, it’s nonetheless underpinned by several layers of support not far from current levels…historically, February and December are the Venture’s two best months of the year…this February will likely end differently than it has started…

7. Markets are under pressure through the first 30 minutes of trading with the Dow off 283 points while the TSX has slipped 155 points into its most oversold conditions in more than a year according to the daily chart…big-name marijuana producers continue to take a hit…Canopy Growth (WEED, TSX), which has a $200 million bought deal deal at $34.60 scheduled to close next week, is down $2.84 at $24.78 as of 7:00 am Pacific…a lot of new capital has been issued in the marijuana and tech sectors over the last few months and the markets will have to churn through it…the Venture has retreated to 816 in early trading…both the Venture and the TSX are now very close to their rising 200-day moving averages (SMA), an area where turnarounds often begin…ML Gold (MLG, TSX-V) is bucking the trend so far, up half a penny at 23 cents after encouraging news yesterday that took the stock as high as 28.5 cents intra-day on total volume of more than 6 million shares…bargain hunters will be watching for any weakness in MLG in today’s overall market pullback as the company does appear to be inching closer to a legitimate Copper-Gold porphyry discovery at its Stars Project in central British Columbia…Gold Standard Ventures (GSV, TSX) has arranged a $20 million bought deal at $2.05 per share to advance its Railroad-Pinion Project in Nevada…

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6:00 pm Pacific

Nickel was one of the few bright spots today as it jumped another 17 cents a pound to close at $6.35.  For the past week it has traded above key resistance at $6, and it’ll be interesting to see if that level establishes itself as new support with prices at a nearly 3-year high.

One thing is certain, though – Nickel is in the grips of a powerful bull market and significantly higher prices can be expected in 2018 and beyond, based on an array of technical and fundamental factors (in years in which Nickel runs, so does the Venture!).

Fundamental Drivers

A combination of the most robust global economic growth in years, surging China imports, tighter supplies and fund interest are all in Nickel’s favor at the moment, not to mention a projected 9% demand increase from the steel industry (the top user).  Glencore commented recently that it’s seeing the best market conditions for the metal in at least a decade, and electric cars are barely playing a part yet.  

The battery sector overlays on a really positive market outlook for Nickel, and it’s forecast to be transformational from 2020 onwards.  That should help offset one of the key threats to rising prices which is higher production from Indonesia and the Philippines after a move by the top producers to pull back on restrictions targeting their mining sectors.  In the meantime, thanks to aging mines, years of depressed prices and a lack of new discoveries, high-grade global Nickel reserves have flattened out and are expected to go into decline just as Nickel’s battery demand kicks into high gear.

Nickel will be in another significant deficit in 2018, very possibly 100,000 tonnes or more, and the shortfall is likely to be particularly acute in China which accounts for about half of global consumption estimated at around 2.1 million tonnes.  A much publicized environmental crackdown there has shut capacity.  As a result, the Chinese are ramping up imports as evidenced by the latest data that showed China’s Nickel imports more than doubled in December from a year earlier to 41,315 tonnes.

Contributing to this week’s strength in Nickel has been First Quantum Minerals (FM, TSX) which said its Nickel output dropped 24% last year to 17,837 tonnes.  First Quantum, one of the world’s leading Copper producers, added Nickel to its menu with the start of operations in late 2011 at the open-pit Ravensthorpe laterite operation in Western Australia.  However, the mine has been shut since last September due to low prices. 

(To digress slightly, it’s hard to imagine First Quantum not wanting to remain in the Nickel business but the risk of low-grade laterite deposits – not suitable for the battery industry – may have them thinking in a different way.  The only problem, of course, is that high-grade Nickel opportunities are rare.  That may explain why company geologists were seen “drooling”, for lack of a better word, over drill core from Nickel Mountain at the recent Roundup Core Shack, and having discussions with geologists from Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V).  It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that First Quantum, known to make bold moves on occasion, is one of the early potential candidates to grab a stake in Garibaldi, particularly if the next drill hole at Nickel Mountain hits another wide intercept of Nickel-Copper-rich massive sulphides on a step-out from hole 14 into one of the two newly-defined “super” conductors.  Dr. Peter Lightfoot, who essentially wrote the book on Nickel sulphide deposits, has described the Nickel mineralization in massive sulphides at Nickel Mountain as the best he’s ever seen, and the combination of very high grade and apparent unusual purity would make this material ideal for the battery sector).

In case you missed this, Visual Capitalist put out an excellent piece on Nickel late last year – check it out by clicking on the link below:

Nickel:  The Secret Driver Of The Battery Revolution

Big-Time Technical Breakout!

iPath Bloomberg Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN (JJN, NYSE)

Below is an excellent chart that shows what’s happening in terms of the “Big Picture” in Nickel.

The iPath Bloomberg Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN, which trades on the NYSE under the symbol JJN, reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in Nickel futures contracts.  JJN offers pure play exposure to the metal and will generally, though not precisely, move in lockstep with Nickel prices as its underlying assets are Nickel futures and not physical metal (liquidity in this instrument, though, is an issue for most investors given the low average daily volume of about 25,000 shares).

There’s no question that Nickel has entered a bullish new cycle after plunging into very oversold conditions, the most extreme since the financial crisis, at the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016:

Key “takeaways” from this 11-year monthly chart which has proven to be very accurate in tracking Nickel’s moves since 2016:

• RSI(14) has momentum (59%) and is now attempting to conquer its long-term downtrend line;
• Important recent breakout level was Fib. resistance near $15 (new support which equates to about $5.50 – $5.60 Nickel);
• Next key breakout area is between the long-term price downtrend line near $17.50 and Fib. resistance at $17.90 (closed at $17.10 today);
  
• ADX indicator has plenty of room for the bullish trend to strengthen;
• It’s reasonable to suggest the JJN could take a run this year to measured Fib. resistance at $23, a 35% jump from current levels which implies a Nickel price of about $8.50.

The Next Canadian High-Grade Nickel Discovery!

Apart from the Nickel Mountain-Kirkham Corridor in the heart of the Eskay Camp, the next best near-term opportunity for a new Nickel sulphide discovery in Canada is in the under-explored Rainy River region of northwest Ontario where Dr. Lightfoot has noticed some remarkable similarities with the Eskay Rift.  Crystal Lake Mining (CLM, TSX-V) is in the driver’s seat with a large land position that includes an historic deposit drilled half a century ago with massive sulphides outcropping at surface (sound familiar?).  We’ve been researching this area for months, and there’s powerful evidence of a district-scale opportunity as CLM prepares to fly a VTEM survey in advance of drilling.  More tomorrow.

Note:  John, Jon and Daniel hold share positions in GGI.  Jon also holds a share position in CLM.

Visit the BMR comments section throughout the day for updates for helpful information.

1. Gold has traded between $1,337 and $1,346 so far today following a rather ho-hum Fed statement yesterday…U.S. dollar weakness continues and that will be supportive of bullion…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,341…Silver has slipped 18 cents to $17.13…on the base metal front, Copper is off 2 cents to $3.18…Nickel is up a penny at $6.19…Zinc and Cobalt are both steady at $1.62 and $36.40, respectively…Crude Oil has climbed 62 cents to $65.35…Goldman Sachs has raised its 2018 Oil price forecasts, projecting that Brent Crude will soon top $80, fueled by blockbuster Oil demand, a deal among big producers to limit output, and U.S. drillers’ inability (despite increasing production) to meet the world’s growing energy appetite…the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-tenth of a point to 88.98…as expected, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged, but said it expects inflation to move “up this year and to stabilize” around its 2% target…as a result, bond yields rose in anticipation that the Fed might step up the pace of policy normalization…however, keep in mind that the Fed has consistently overestimated inflation in recent years…

2. Oil traders brushed aside some bearish U.S. data and have pushed prices higher today on further evidence that OPEC’s commitment to its supply cuts remains firmly in place…U.S. production has topped 10 million barrels per day for the first time since 1970 and is very close to an all-time record, the Energy Information Administration said yesterday…the EIA also reported the biggest increase in Crude Oil stocks since March last year, a rise of 6.8 million barrels…Americans are pumping out Oil faster than rabbits can make bunnies, but OPEC constraint and strong global economic growth are providing a positive price environment…in many parts of Canada, though, Oil has unfortunately become a dirty word among the growing globalist crowd which has enthusiastically embraced the new religion of climate change extremism…

3. While Canadian political leaders focus on getting pot to market, an extremely serious situation is unfolding in Canada’s energy sector, particularly after this week’s illegal, unconstitutional move by the radical new B.C. government to further delay or even block the already approved and critically important Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion…if only Alberta had a Ralph Klein in power right now (Jason Kenney’s turn won’t come until next year)…threatening to take B.C. to court will do nothing to stop the Green Monster in that province – immediate and serious economic retaliation by Alberta is the only answer, especially if the Feds shirk their responsibility for political reasons…pipelines that cross provincial boundaries are federal jurisdiction and Ottawa signed off on the Trans Mountain expansion in November 2016…the previous B.C. government also endorsed the project…Canada’s Oil and gas producers are struggling to stay competitive with their U.S. counterparts because of the serious problem with lack of pipeline capacity, a fact outlined in a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute just days before the federal government is expected to unveil how it plans to overhaul the environmental and regulatory review process for major energy projects…

4. ML Gold (MLG, TSX-V) is trading briskly this morning as the news from its Stars Project in central British Columbia keeps getting better…this morning the company reported that it has intersected a 230-m interval with visual Copper and Molybdenum…significantly, the hole was drilled into a target area over 1 km west of the previously reported drilling…while observed mineralization in hole 5 is not visually as intense as in hole 4, it does appear to be part of the same system identified 1 km to the east, providing evidence of scale…Adrian Smith, President of ML Gold, stated:  “Copper mineralization has now been observed over 1 km away from hole 4 and confirms that we have a large system on our hands. Further, detailed logging of hole 4 indicates it could in a high level setting of a Copper-rich porphyry system. We are seeing Copper veining cutting multiple rock types, including earlier Copper veins, implying a large scale with multiple pulses of Copper-rich fluids. We feel extremely lucky that mineralization begins at surface and feel confident that it could extend to significant depth.” MLG gapped up at the open to 23 cents and is 3.5 cents higher at 24.5 cents after the first 30 minutes of trading…

5. The Dow ended January with a gain of 5.6% while the S&P 500 rose 5.8% in the same period…both indexes posted their best monthly performances since March 2016…between 1950 and 2017, the “January Barometer” (as January goes, so goes the year) has been correct 58 of 67 times, or approximately 87%, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac…U.S. markets are relatively unchanged after the first 30 minutes of trading this morning…in Toronto, the TSX has slipped 50 points while the Venture is flat at 864…strong interest in the Cobalt sector is underscored by the recently completed $8.5 million financing of M2 Cobalt (MC, TSX-V) which has acquired 7 exploration licenses spanning 1,564 sq. km in Uganda…the stock, formerly known as Accend Capital, resumed trading just over a week ago after a more than 2-month halt as the Exchange reviewed the property acquisition…Silver Bull Resources (SVB, TSX-V) has drilled 17 m grading 301 g/t Silver and 1.75% Copper in its continuing underground drill program targeting a newly discovered sulphide zone under the previously defined oxide zone at its Sierra Mojada Project in Coahuila, northern Mexico…

6. Bitcoin’s January slide knocked $44.2 billion (U.S.) off the $200 billion (U.S.) in market value generated in all of last year, the biggest 1-month loss in dollar terms in the short history of digital assets…a record $500 million (U.S.) heist of an alternate coin at Japanese exchange Coincheck on January 26 upped the pressure on regulators to probe business practices within the largely unregulated industry, while authorities trading hotbed South Korea continue to debate more serious measures including a ban on such exchanges…meanwhile, 2 days ago, the Securities and Exchange Commission halted a $600 million initial coin offering, one of the biggest U.S. interventions yet into the world of raising money by issuing digital tokens…

7. NexGen Energy (NXE, TSX) has started its winter 2018 drill program at its 100%-owned Rook I Property in the Athabasca basin, Saskatchewan…the program consists of approximately 25,000 m using 8 drill rigs and has several key objectives…at the Arrow deposit, drilling will focus on further A3 high-grade zone definition, targeting the large untested areas surrounding the A1 to A5 shears, potential extensions of the shears particularly to the northeast, and definition of newly discovered high-grade mineralization northwest of the A1 shear …at South Arrow, drilling will continue to focus on defining the extent of Uranium mineralization in all directions…further, highly ranked geophysical targets on the Arrow, South Arrow and Mirror conductors will be targeted after encouraging results from geophysical surveys conducted predominantly in 2016 and 2017…

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